Monday MLB Thoughts & NFL

Well the past 2 days I have put minimal effort into capping baseball since I was overly focused on the football slates. Well that minimal effort turned out to be very solid as both days were slightly better then+10 units while the football days were my worst ever in the -30 unit range each day. What I learned this weekend is dont let to much shit get into your head. What I mean is I went against what I knew and sided with situational angles that seemed to be backed fading the public sentiment( which works in all forms of life). Which I know for sure sites that track this stuff give out WRONG INFO. I watched on sportsinsights.com the money flow before the game....and I know who was being bet...it was clearly Oakland ( 13 to 12.5 ), somewhat bias to Cleveland( Clev vig was negative) , The Lions heavy( remember I said Pinnacle sportsbook was taking sides and begging you to play DET @ +9 -131!!) , Texans fell to 11.5...Now I admit this curious since early it had alreday dropped to 13 then went 13 to 11.5 on Sunday. I cant say for sure if Hou was being taken Or the books simply moved it down tomake you think something was up and they do this! , Miami was heavily bet till the last seconds when someone hit Buffalo and the Under hard. I know cause within seconds the Miami total went from 37 U -108 to 37 U -119 and Miami started at 6 and hit 7 before a last sec drop to 6.5 ! The public was on NYG , Minny and KC so they got those , but was on STL in the afternoon , also GB went from +2 to +1 more importantly the ML finished at GB -108 from +113 on Sat nite , they were clearly on TB taking that down to 4.5 and just like Cle a small bias towards Tenny. So the public got smoked IMO.......oh yeah the public was on the jets as well

My point is I let many outside influences sway my decisions and thats MY FAULT! Back to the basics! I got greedy and paid with the profits I built up here! New day.....

MLB

ChiC @ Philly

Right now this is to high priced for me. The Cubbies have suddenly woken up last 2 but Marshall hast been very sharp in his 3 return outings. Not to mention Cubs 1-9 L 10 away. My belief is if you are laying HEAVY CHALK you should expect a domianting pitcher performance. right now I cant for sure w/o doubt taht I would expect Leiber to limit Chi to 3 runs or less over 9 innings.

Atl @ Wash

I have read somewhere about Armas lack of success against ATL. Which is obviously true but lets not forget that for years ATL was head and shoulders ABOVE Washington. Now the last 2 seasons and especially 2006 there isnt a significant gap bewteen the two. I say this cause Armas has 2 strong starts vs ATL this yr without allowing a run and was sharp in 3 of 4 vs them since 2005. So who cares that Armas is something like 0-9 at home vs ATL recently...its misleading cause the last 2 at home have been very solid ! Davies has been Bad since his DL return and I believe those were at home. Now he travels and historically that hasnt been good....all young SP usally have tremendous DIFFERENCE's inhome /away splits. One tyhing that concerns me about Armas is his recent lack of strikeouts....6 straight starts with2 or less. Pitchers tend to struggle when they cant K batters not matter how hard they throw. Thats why Chein Ming Wang is a FREAK of nature. He doesnt K anyone but throws a 95 MPH sinker!! Think Kevin Brown and Scott Erickson in there prime but better. Armas has only 1 bad 2nd H start at home allowing 11 earned in 29 /2/3 innings since teh break. However his last 6 starts have seen 25 2/3 Inn and 39 H 27 runs / 22earned . So thinking WASh but also over cause Armas recent struggles and Davies poor performsnces since returning from the DL.

Fla @ NYM

Neither SP pitching well but I like Traschel(19-9 when he starts) pitching for his spot in the rotation on extended rest. The NY offense was sleeping in Pitt but they faced LHP which is there achilles heel. moeheler is returning from a long DL stintand shown that he is a 5 innning SP right now. The Marlin pen is poison! Beautiful day here in NY so the over but me worth a luck since Traschel tends to get tremendous run support...only I am not a big fan of 9.5 totals at Shea.

StL @ Milw

Real simple here....Capuano despite dropping something like 8 of past 10 starts is usally a play for me at home. StL all season hasnt shown much against LHP 0-7 2nd H away vs LHP and the names arent studs........generally struggled away think 6-18 L 24 after starting 5-1 (loss to Francis) first 2 series after break. Reyes has been inconsistent and ahsnt pitched deep into games on the road plus MILW's bigbats Jenkins and Fielder are LHP.....still thinking U 8.5 though!

Houston / Cincy

Not sold yet but Oswalt at -218 vs the Reds looks enticing. First he is strongest in AUG & SEPT and facing the opponent he has had the most success against combined with a huge offensive slump by Cincy lately. Lohse is on the hill but after a great fresh start in Cincy teh clock might have struck midnite...Remember I look for strong SP performances when I lay big chalk....think I get iy here.

SFG @ Col

Well I am not sure of Lowry's health as he hasnt looked sharp lately...Coors isnt the place to be in that situation. Suddenly Coors is back to the over park again. SF has struggled against LHP and while Hampson is unknown he had decent AAA numbers and is LH. For that reason I am thinking COL here...obvious choice is SF needs to win but should they be favored away against a LHP even a rookie with an injured SP??? If we see 10 definite over play but considering 10.5

SD @ LAD

We have a line move here and I think its correct. This was a bad line when OPENED it should have been IMO PK -104. With SD dominace in the series and Peavy better numbers recently vs his opponent you would probably lean SD. So I do think this coudl be a sharp play on SD as the line was bad. Anything close to a PK -104 situatin and I will probably ride SD but I am liking the under 7.5 especaiily if we see 8.

NYY@ Tor

Rasner looks solid to date butthe inconsistent innings is always a concern. Ny in a terrific fade spot here after back to back DH's vs Boston and a night home game then flying to Tor. That has to be tough 148 games into the season..Burnett looking like himself lately and I think power pitchers tend to give our lineup trouble. We didnt hit much on the weekend...thinking Under 10 and hoping Tor drops so I can play them

Balt @ TB

First Balt has struggled on the road but they have there ace on the hill. At first it seemed like a big price to pay fro Bedard after all he was just -172 at home a few weeks back vs TB(against Hammel who is probably a notch below Corcoran). So I was thinking the should have been -135 to -140 range since TB sucks away and is decent at home. Then I see Corcoran ahs dropped 9 straight starts mostly cause of poor run support but he was blasted vs NYY..1/3 inn and 7 runs. He had gone under in 7 of 8 so he wasnt pitching that poorly. With TB you have to thrw out there road record as its 2-26 since the break. At home thinks it 16-16 and 4-5 last homestand with the younger lineup. Both these pens have stunk lately...Tough choice but Balt might be the right price now as its down to -140 but I cant take an under here unless the big gets cheaper. ould take the over 9 if that happened.

Seattle @ texas

With Felix he has struggled @ Arlington and the ranger bats have woken up past 2 games. Young King Felix hasnt pitched since last weekend against Texas in which teh Rangers avoided the sweep and won 4-2.Have to do more research into this price cause it seems a little high but I like Millwood and Texas here.....I think over time its a bad decision to play inflated favs. Not usre tahts the case here and why I need to research more.

Det @ Chi W

Really not touching a side as its a coin flip( was thinking DET). Do like teh under here as Kenny Rogers has 4 solid starts against CHI and Buerhle has been decent vs DET. Both lineuos do not hit al that well against LHP and have strong UNDER biased against LHP. So watching this 9.5 under vig closely before I jump in.

Cle @ Oak

With Westbrook generally pitching well away recently I like Cle here. More cause of the price. Haren had a great last start but was so-so before that. he is extremely tough at home though but not sure the price is accurate. Still thinking under but so-so strength

Thats my thoughst as of now be back around 6 to finalize my play list!

MLB Plays

Nationals -116 (4units)
Over 9.5 Was +103 (2units)

Brewers -111 (6units) Now +100 (2 units) more
Under 8.5 -103 (2units)

Astros -220 (3units)

Rockies -107 (3units)
Over 10.5 +103 SFG (3units)

Under 7.5 -102 LAD (2units)

BJays -125 (4units) - hate that fading NYY!
Under 10 +107 (2units)

Orioles -139 (2units)

Under 9.5 -115 DET (5units) now -112 (2units ) More

Rangers -132 (3units)
Over 9.5 +104 (3units)

Still looking at Oak and Cle.

Parlay +186 Cubs , Mets -173 , Hou -234

MLB Add-

SD -104 (3units) Remember this is the fair price in my opinion and we drifted lower as the nit eprogressed.

small parlay Indians +143 / Und 9 -108


NFL taking Pitt a matter of where and how much..fairly big though. GL

NFL

Steelers -2.5 -105 (7units)

Under 37.5 -125 (3units)

The scary part of the Steeler side for me is Big Ben's health anbd crispness having played just 4 series in the preseason. Thats why I tend to think Under here. Also not sure what Jax can do offesnively versus this Pitt squad...running will be tough can they throw on Pitt with such young WR's vs good corners?? Plus jax has some injuries on defense Hyaward OUT and Spicer <>

Sunday Thoughts

1PM

Over 9.5 +100 ATL/ FLA(4units)

strong over day splits, Huddy struggling and Nolasco off injury bad day splits.

Mets -128 (4units)

Jays -201 (3units)
fade TB away and no Crawford.

Under 10 -113 Minny (2units)

The rest--

Under 10 KC -102 (3units)

Rangers -120 (3units) & Over 10 +103 93units)

A's +106 (4units) & Under 9.5 -119 (2units)

Arizona -105 (2units)

SFG +116 (2units) & Over 9.5 +109(3units)

Over 10 -108 Cubs (3units)

Padres +130 (4units ) & Over 8 -105 (3units)

MLB on Saturday

Houston +114 (3units)
Under 9 -126 Houston (2units)

Fading Hamels away dropped 6 of 8 against a Houston team 20-13 vs LFP(Hamels beat them 3-2 in Philly). Th etotal is tough cause so many like the under buteverything points that way. Both offenses not hitting facing top prospects. hirsch has been solid 3 straight now

Cubs -140 ( 3unit)

The over is probably a gift with the wind blowing out(11 runs). Michalak has pitched liked a journeyman lefty recently afte the initial splash. Hill is pitching the top prospect after the early start. Not crazy about the price here but as I said yesterday ChiC plays best against the Central and Cincy hasnt hit much during the day. Chi has good offense day splits and thislooks to be high scoring.

Cards -203 (2units)

Carpenter is masterful last 4 at home .

Under 9 -104 Oakland (3units)

Vazquez sharp last 5 outings especially past 2 and has received litle supports less then 4 runs in 6 straight. Zito has been a bit inconsistent of late but has good day splits. WSox also not hitting away with 9 straight Unders on the road now.

Indians -145 (3units)
Under 9.5 -125 (2units)
Sabathis solid of late and Silva despite pitching better is an automatic road fade for me.

Nationals +113 (3units)

Just cant see how MILW is favored on the road.

Mets -133 (3units)

Dont like NY versus a LHP but Gorzelanny has spent a few weeks on the DL. He shouldnt be sharp. ElDuque has been nasty latelyexcept for a few bad road starts which is a concern. However NY wants to warp it up and Duque has 2 excellent starts vs Pitt this season.....

DBacks -142 (2units)& Over 10-103 (2units)

Vargas tends to pitch well vs Col despite some struggles at home. Fogg appears to be falling apart lately.

Padres +114 (3units)

Williams nice track record past few years against LAD and SD has played LAD well this yr

Royals +102 (3units)
Over 10 -113 (3units)
Redman is decent at home , Seattle struggles vs LHP and Piniero off the DL. SP off the DL , an over UMP , and bad pens..

Rangers +105 (3units)
Under 9.5 -113(2units)

Just kept it simple today. GL

NFL week 2


1 PM starts

Buffalo @ Miami -6 /37

First with Buffalo this defense only allowed 19 pts vs NE last week but the Pats shredded them in the second half. NE had 36 rushes for 180 yards and I am sure Ronnie Brown will be a huge factor as Buffalo has been near the bottom vs the run for awhile now. Since the start of the 2005 season the Bills have allowed 19 pts on the road 3 times that is the low water mark (21 and 24 after that, the rest all 24++(so 4 x))

In NE the 2nd H saw the Pats start at there 7 and march 93 yards on 12 plays(6+ minutes) for a TD . Actually IMO that drive was the game because NE stopped MacGahee on a 4th 1 at the 7 after a long 5+ minute opening 2nd H drive that could have seen BUFF extend its lead to 20-7 or 24-7. NE made the stop went up the field and made it 17-14. After that the numbers are numbing for Miami 3 drives they went 3 out on the 1st two occassions amassing -12 yards. The last possession they went 4 plays for 12 yds before punting. So after that stop Miami ran 10 plays for ZERO yards and had the ball for apprx 4 :40 minutes of the final 25 minutes! On teh 1st possession I mentioned NE going 93 yds and scoring. Next possession they go 14 plays for 63 yards but get stuck at the Bills 13 and settle for 3 points on another 5 + minute drive. After Bills safety NE gets the ball back and Brady is picked on the 1st play. NE gets the ball back with 6:13 to play and Buffalo never seees it again run 12 plays for 60+ yards and chewing up the clock.

Now Troy Vicent is OUT and Spikes looks extremely doubtful. Point is Miami scored 17 @ Pitt and there is no reason why they cant score here...at least 24. Miami scored 24 and 32 past 2 home games vs Miami with QB's names Frerotte and Rosenfels , AJ Feeley. They also aloowed 23 and 42 to Buffalo with Bledsoe and Losman @ QB. Lee Evans loves Miami as he had 3 1st Quarter TDS last year and the season before had 2 TD's( 9 R -227yds 5TD). The Buffalo offense only 10 points vs NE but they also gave points away by going 4th and 1 so realistically they managed 13 vs a solid NE defense. Which is good for me since I believe Miami will get 24+ and Bills 13++ I have a play on the over.

Now Miami sucks as a home fav recently but suprised more people arent talking about Miami here. Did that Pitt game change so many minds? They have had along time to prepare and Buffalo's defense is THIN.

PLAY:
Over 37 -103 Miami (10units)
Dolphins -6 -106 (5units) Hedge 1 unit Bills +7.5 -120

See the Dolphin being bet fairly heavily today and I think I would only be scared if this went to -7. So no changes.

Carolina @ Minnesota

Real simple w/o Steve Smith I dont see what this offense of Carolina possesses. However I think Carolina does get an advantage by Smith being OUT cause they can pratice without him but it would be ideal if expectations were he was out and they werent left wondering. LAst year wasnt impressed with the Carolina offesne on the road and w/o Smith I dont think they score much on minnesota. So expecting a big time defensive battle here.....Panthers have one OL out another doubtful and Dan Morgan was hurt and will miss. Carolina D has been tough since day1 of the exhibition season...17-13 type game.

With Steve Smith OUT playing Minnesota and Under 37. Played Minny at +1 and might middle it. My feeling is carolina's only chance to win w/o Smith is to shut down Minny...cause points will be scarce.

Play:Under 37.5 -120 (3units)

I have Minny +1-108 for 3 units from mid-week since I never thought Smith would play. Now we are at Minny -2 and once I can get it to +3 Carolina I will make a nice middle...truth is at +3 I really like carolina. Its been all minny smoney since mid-week. HEDGE Minny +1-108 and Carolina +3 -120ish(3units)

Cleveland @ Cincy -10 /42

Think if Housh doesnt play its a huge hit again for the offense. They dont use there TE and 3rd down back Chris Perry is OUT. Cincy is deep at WR but Bodden did well versus Chad last time and if Winslow is correct CJ might not be heard from on Sunday. Cincy looks like it will miss Levi Jones on the OL. With a guy like Crennel playing a rivalary matchup the points have to look good. Last few games in Cincy have been intersting 3 pt win last year , 10 point win but slugfest the previous year and in 2003 Browns won straight up as 8 pt dogs. Cincy tends to play Unders at home early on under Lewis so I wouldnt be shocked by another low scoring affair especially with a strange drop from 42 to 41.

Play- Browns +10 -107(2units)

No change but wow that 40over total looks enticing!

Lions @ Bears -9.5 / 32

I have thought long andhard about this game. What I have decided is a simple logical approach. Yes , the Lions looked decent last week but they were also 6 point HOME DOGS in that game. Which says alot the strength of your team when your catching 6 at home. Now DET & CHI always play tough games but I remember the Lion offense looking clueless last year vs CHI. Now the Bears at home over there final 6 regular season games allowed 1 TD!! Thats right folks only Samkon Gado's 2 YD run over the final 6 games!! Minnesota 3pts , ravens 6 pts , SF 9 pts , Panthers 3 , GB 7 pts and Falcons 3 pts!! Thats insane!!!

So the simple question is how is an indoor team going to play on grass and improve upon the 6 pts they scored last week vs a top rated defense? I just dont see how they do it and gets me to thinking that its very likely we see 6 or 7 pts from DET here and saying Lions 10 is a stretch cause only Cincy in game 2 topped 9 points on this Bears defense. Now I really did like Lions at first but this line I believe was setup from the get go to get you off CHI. You look at DET away last year 13 pts (4x) , 14 pts , 6 pts and 7 pts excluding the finale taht saw tehm score 21. We hear about Martz and such but hey new QB and new system its still game 2...adjustment period. So lets say Det was good for about 13 on the road and Chi good for allowing 6 at home , splt that in two and say Lions get 3Fg's here even 10....you dont think CHI gets 20 here?? I do!! Look at DET preseason offense as well . Also I would say that Chicago is very close to Seattle. Obviously the difference in offense but on a neutral field it would probably be a 2 pt spread. Point is Seattle laying -6 @ DET translates to a DD spread if they hosted probably something in the neighborhood of 10 to 11 points ...so then doesnt -9 sound right where it should have been and not inflated? I think so.....Chi only -7.5 at home after DET was +6 at home vs Seattle!! Doesnt make sense

Play - Bears -9 +110(3units) .& -6.5 -110 (3units)


Hou @ Indy -13.5 /47

Call me Mr. Contrarian here. Last yr in Indy the Texans caught 18 pts and gave teh Colts a game. They didnt have Dom Davis and the trio Of Lundy , Dayne and Gado is probably an upgrade. The Colts had Edge and Stokley who played huge roles in the game and offense. call me nuts but I think a great sandwich spot for Houston after the Manning Bowl and with Jags on deck. Yes, the Colts should pass on Houston but can they run on them? can they stop Houston's offense look at how many yards NY had. Granted NYG was home and a top offense but they shredded the Colts. This is a different Texans team despite last weeks result. The 1st meeting in Houston last year Hous didnt have Andre Johnson now they have him healthy and Moulds! really curious to see what the loss of Edge means in this matchup as his numbers were huge.

Play;
Texans +14 -105 (3units)

Suprising move from opening at 14 down to 12.5 with al Indy money. I said before I think Hous tries to chw up clock and while the Hou OL isnt much Carr can make plays with his legs and arm now that he has 2 WR's. Indy couldnt defend the run at all but there pass defense wasnt so hot either...wish I had more at +14.

WOW! Down to 11.5!!

New Orleans @ GB

Not going to BS here its absurd that the Saints are road chalk in a place where they lost 52 -3 last year. Chicago didntget much on tehground vs GB and typically the packers are tough to run on in Lambeau . Which is a huge difference from the Browns who have struggled stopping the run. People are going to say the Sainst passing game is much better then Chicago's but is it? Brees new QB off shoulder inury and Horn aging , off an injury. No clear #2 WR or TE. Colston has talent but its 1 game folks. NO's has more potential possibly but I actually dont see a clearly better attack then CHI with Grossman who I believe is 3-0 in Lambeau and wasnt that Lovie's mission.....beat the Packers!

Some nice trends with GB off a shutout as most teams bounce back , Saints have never won 2 straight to start a season on the road and the emotional RETURN to the SUPERDOME on deck next week.

Play: Packers +2 -101 (10units)& ML +118 (3units)

TB @ ATL -5.5 /36

Again no BS. I think people writing off TB are simply focused to heavily on week 1. TB has won 3 straight in the series and gives ATL hell. Abraham probably will miss and he created a ton of havoc last week, so huge loss IMO. Patrick Kerney was also injured and Hartwell is already OUT. Oh yeah that impressive win didnt feature Steve Smith and had other Car injuries. I saw TB struggle on offense all preseason but TB has scored at least 27 past 3 vs ATL( also in 7 of past 8 meetings). I think Cadillac is licking his chops 50c 266yds last year the OL shuffle is concerning though. its amazing how Michael Vick can go 10/22 for 140 yards and suddenly be hailed as the savior...wasnt it the same boxscore we see every week. The Buc defense was decent against the run as Jamal Lewis had a 27 yard burst but just 51 yds on the other 17 carries. So I dont see a repeat of ATLs running performance either

We have the whole shutout trend and Chucky sure was pissed with TBs performance!

Play :
TB +6 -115 (7units) Lean over 35(think 20-17)

I am nervous alot of TB money is coming in to my suprise and took ATL -4 as a 2Unit hedge. Also played the over 35 -109 (3units)

NYG @ Philly -3/ 42

New York showed some serious offense prowess and some serious holes in the secondary. McNabb looked sharp in game 1 and all preseason. Stallworth was a monster in the opener and strong against NY in that fake Saints home game after Katrina at the Meadowlands in weeek 3 last year. The Eagles defense looked solid all summer but Lito Shepard missing here really weakens it and you can see how they played w/o him last 6 in 2005. McNabb has won 7 straight vs NYG and the Gianst have had trouble in Philly.

Despite strong UNDER trends I think both teams top 20 points. NY had 5 of 7 road games see at least 45 exceptions Dallas and SF.

Play :
Eagles -2.5 -110 (7units) & Over 42 -105 (6units)

Westbrook is in so bumped each slightily. Like that Philly is small 'unpopular' home fav.

Oakland @ Balt -13 /33.5

This game is giving me headache's! This line is insane but most people think the points are to high. So did linesmakers do there job and get you to change your mind cause of the points?? Even before the shutout loss OAK was set to be 8 point dogs so that pitifil MNF performance has tacked on 3 or 4 pts here. My problem is I have played the bounce back situation a few times here and worry that OAK has to many factors against them. First Gallery is OUT and he looked crappy , can the backup with 1 career start be better or logically worse? , Porter is a cancer and will sit out again (I think) , Moss is not endorsing Brooks and I dont think they have any relationship- not good when your star WR and WB dont see eye to eye , Ashamouga is Questionable @ CB , Brooks knee is banged up and imagine the youngster Walters having to play @ Baltimore- not fair! , oh the 1 PM start cross country after a Monday nite game! I think this could be a 24 -10 game as Oakland looked awful after the WASH game mid year last season and hasnt seen improvement since. What kills me is thought Oakland looked solid in th 1st 3 games of the preseason till they didnt show up when they rested everyone in the finale.

back and forth, back and forth I go. Bottomline is I dont know what to expect from Oakland here. I do the ravens offense after the opening drive didnt do very much and probably only started moving the ball cause TB defense was dead tired. Think TB had a run of like 6 possessions where they held the ball for 2 minutes or less. Lewis had 1 big run and only avg 3yds per carry without that 20 something yarder. McNair started the season just like the preseaon on a long drive that ended on a TD. Thing is the preseason after that he somewhat struggle do we see that pattern again?? Just to many points and I am sorry but its Joe Pub driving this price up and no one else? Where would play Baltimore?? my guess is probably at -8 or -9 but not higher. Also BALT of a win as DOG and a fav next week means fade. Then Oakland at its lowest point being shutout at home on MNF and Balt at a high shocking the betting world by winning @ TB and pitching a shutout. If you like oakland the over makes sense...your basically saying OAK scores at least 10 here...u can get OAK over 10.5 pts +110.

We didn't give our quarterback a chance," Shell said. "If you got breakdowns up and down the line of scrimmage, then you got problems. We have to go back and see what we can do scheme-wise to make sure we take care of some of those things as we move forward."



Play: Oakland +13 -113 (5units) & Over 33 -120 (2units)

Small drop to 12.5 and over to 34...nothing has changed.

STL @ SF +3 /43.5

Some will talk about how poorly the Arizona defense played but you have to be impressed regardless with what SF was able to do offense. Look at what Alex Smith or any SF QB looked like statistically on the road. With said you have to be somewhat impressed with STL defense. However I dont buy into them yet. First Denver was unsettled at RB and Plummer is known to fall to pieces on occassion. Then remember the historically problems this team has going from the DOME to grass...they have been a great fade in this spot for years now. STL won as SU as a DOG and is now road chalk...again nice fade spot. SF was able to defeat them twice last year which is great but trend wise its usally a position to play the revenge factor.

As bad as SF was last year they played solid fball athome... 3-5 SU and 2 of the losses wer by 2 and 3 pts to Seattle and Dallas , plus a TD loss to Zona....only NYG and Indy won easily at thats because tehy had above average defenses and high powered offenses. Persoonally what did the Rams offense show in game 1....great field position and no TDS's only 7 FG attempts! Yes, they did get 5 turnovers but in thered zone STL was 0-5 and 0-4 in goal to go. The Broncs did run well against the Rams and Gore looked good last week. Bulger was 18 of 34 for 210 and no TDS..only 4 receievers caught balls 2 wide outs and 2 RB's. They will have to play w/o Center McCollum on the road..

"That's a tough offensive line position to lose," Linehan said. "You worry about certain things like quarterback exchange."

They started 3 possessions in Denver territory and manged 6 points. They started at Denvers 3 lost 23 yards and missed the FG , started at DEN 34 went only 14 yads for 3 pts and then at Den 17 and managed just 6 yards and 3 pts again! Not impressive on offense. SF is nothing special on defense but after STL struggled to do I really want to play an over here? STL is on grass not turf and he SF defense only had 2 real bad games at home think Dal and STL in the opener...after that fairly solid I believe.

Play: San Fran +3.5 -120 (5units) & ML +146 (2units)

Arizona @ Seattle -7 /47

Not going to get crazy digging into this game. Yes , the Hawks offense looked out of sync butthey are home now and adding Branch to the mix. The Cardinal defense gave up a ton of yards to the 49ers in the new stadium. They havent had an answer to Shaun Alexander yet. You get a softer line on Seattle thanks to a crap week 1. Dont see why Seattle doesnt score in the thirties here, last year outside of the finale and the game @ SF the Cards allowed at least 28 pts in the 6 road games. We knew Seattle's defense flies under the radar and I think Zona is going to be tough to completely stop...so think 31-17 type game here. Leaning heavily towards the over but waiting to see if it moves down....393 yards at home to SF allowed...(thinking over 47-106 (3xx)

Play - Seattle -6.5 -120 (7units)
ADD- Over 47 -105 (4units)

Tenny @ SD -11.5 /38

Tough matchup. If Tenny has time and throws the ball like the 4th quarter vs NYJ they have a chance to cover. I would say SD strength is dfeinetly stopping the ground game and rushing the QB not defending the pass. Collins should be familiar with SD seeing them twice last season. If Collins get pressured he will force passes and throw picks..OL is key for Tenny. Like Tenny +11 here.

KC @ Denver -10.5/38

Missed this matchup yesterday but really think its similiar to the DET situation(talk about the defense but defenses tired when the offenses dont stay on the field). People think this team can score here and they wont. Huard did look good but it was garbage time at home vs an okay defense. The Bronco defense is so much tougher and prepared! High altitude inDenver is always tough. Bronco struggled on offense but they are home now..

Play - Denver -10 -110 (3units) have the under 40 as well but its 38 now and not sure if I would still play it.

Pats @ Jets +6 /37

Not sure what to make of this matchup besides defensive battle. NE missing WR's and dont see the offense improving here as Dillion hasnt done much @ the meadowlands. NY offense hasnt done much since the preseason but Pennington made some nice throws in Tenny. The difference here is we know Pennington canmake the throws but will the WR's be open vs a much better defense?? NE owns this series and NYJ outside of last year had scored 16 (2x) and 7 (2x) in the Pennington era. Plus NY will have to generate a run game to keep NE honest. Nugent struggling in the kicking game MIGHT make Mangini think twice about FGs from 43++ and deeper. Gostkowski has been impressive but a late start at the MEadowland will havethe swirling winds!
I will be at this game by the way!!!

Could there be a Branch hangover even though the saga is finally over ??

We just have to work hard to make sure this doesn't carry over to next week," said Brady, who completed only four passes to wide receivers. "It felt like we were always just out of sync."

Thinking NYJ or pass here....

Play: Under 37.5 -120 (4units)
Jets +6 -108 (3units)


Sunday Nite and Monday Nite to come....basically taking Wash small @ +7/+7.5 for 2 units.

TEASER-(6units)
Bears +3
Broncos -0.5
Panthers +12
Good Luck! Feel a good day !

Seperation Saturday Thoughts

This week in CFB-
Maryland +17.5 -105 (3units) +890 ML (unit)
Result : WV Blowout (-4units)

Kansas +5 +100 (5units)
Under 49 +102 (3units)

Result- Amazing 37-31 OT defeat (-8.00units)

Noon games:

Connecticut -6 -109 (2units)

With Mauck out not expecting much from the offense. This team has struggled athome versus some of the weakest teams in the country Dule and Syracuse. Think the Huskie defense is respecatable and if I am right 14 points wont be enough for a cover.

BYU +7 -110 (5units) Upgraded from to 3 to 5.

Real simple logic here and I just dont like the BC defense. They got 'lucky' to win vs Clemson and the out of conference game sandwiched bewteen conferences as well. Something tells me BC might take BYU lightily after playing them in the 2005 opener. Toal being OUT would further kill the defense. Beck will throw on them...

Cincinnati +29.5 -108 (3units)

As pointed out already a perfect sandwich game. After winning Ohio State which is there game of the year probably then Penn State on deck. In bewteen they get 'rival' Cincy who has some ties to Tressel and showed heart vs pitt. You would think Ohio State just coats and limits what Penn State can see on film. As mentioned by other posters Ohio State usually poor laying heavy wood.

Illinois -3-110 (2ounits) Biggest play/Doubled up.

Well I just dont think much of the Cuse offense and I spoke of this in my other CFB thread. We all saw Illini look awful @ Rutgers and saw Cuse take Iowa to OT. Which IMO creates a perception that is incorrect. Cuse will have a hangover after not winning vs Iowa at home in OT. As I said a big 10 bottomfeeder is clearly better then a Big Esat bottomfeeder. Cuse just cant muster much offense they might get 14 points here but I 'll take my chances with pierre thomas. Illinois did beat Rutgers and SJST at home before traveling to CAL and leading into the 4th quarter. Since then they have just fallen apart and Rutgers had big revenge on there mind from last year. I thought the Illini defense was decent and they should contain Cuse.

My earlier post pasted---
At home they ran 82 plays for 280 total yards! Try 44 on the ground for 70 yards and 38 thru the air for 210 and managed a 10-10 tie after regulation! In the opener they ran 49 plays for 141 total yards with 30 runs for 91 yards and 19 pass attempts ( think 6 completions) for 45 Yards!

Syracuse has made strides on defense but this team is 1-10 lyr and 0-2 now so 1-12 under the new head coach which was a home win vs Buffalo! Last year on the road 0-5 and lost by 24 (3x) , 19 and 17. Against solid competition they scored 17 (2x) , 14 ,10 and 7 . However in three games the scored late 4th quarter TD's when the game was well decided and also a defensive TD so of 8 Tds the offense really only earned 4 all season!!

Over 52 -110 Mich St & Pitt (5units)

This seems extremely easy to me. Should be a solid game and the winner should top 30... Am I missing something here?

Iowa -13.5 -109 (5units)

Everyone is probably thinking Iowa State always plays them tough. Well I believe thats because Iowa State has had a defense that was very solid butthat is no longer the case IMO. While there offense is still questionable 23 vs toldeo ang 16 vs UNLV. Iowa will get Tate back and the Cuse game will be a distant memory. Oh and revenge is a silly phrase but Iowa losing badly to an instate rival that it is clearly better then will be ample motivation here. If Iowa gets 31 how iwll Iowa State see 17 vs this defense? Possible under 48 - thinking 31 -13.

Marshall +10 -107 (5units)

Really not impressed by Kansas State and dont the offense has much. Well I dont like bad offenses laying points. Marshall had them beat at home last year should be a close game again.

1 PM starts
Central Michigan +1.5 -110 (3units)

Think CMU plays well at home as witnessed by the solid effort vs BC. Akron lost to CMU in Akron last year and is in a tough spot after playing @ Penn State , @ NCST(and winning SU) and now 3rd straight road game.

UAB +17 -110 (3units)

Think UAB's defense can play well enough against a slumping Georgia offense. The question is can Uab break double digs? Think teasing the under to 48 is wise.

Troy +17.5-110 (3units)

The Tech offense doesnt impress me and Troy St should keep them below 31... The GT defense does scare me though.

2 PM
Minnesota -41.5 -102 (2units) & 1st H -24 -109 (2units)

Maybe Temple scores a TD but Minny loves bad teams and the offense should top 49 here(COMFORTABLE WITH 56)

Northwestern -17 -109 (5units)probably should look for -16.5 on the buy

Think the Wildcats have the perfect opponentto bounce back from. The first home game after Coach Walker's death may have contributed to lost focus , just a theory. Three things are for sure Sutton is a stud at RB , EMU cant stop the run and EMU is playing its 3rd straight away
game. Oh yeah if Tyler Jones shoulder doesnt allow him to play it could get real ugly against the Wildcat defense.

3:30 Starts

Auburn -3-120 (5units)

Feel that LSU misses Addai and Green on offense

Michigan +6 -110 (5units)

Michigan has the talent and experience here. Not to mention ND loses the role of cushy Underdog.

Ohio U +15.5 -110 (5units)
Not overly impressed with the Rutgers offense to this point( Ray Rice has looked good). Ohio U coming off a big upset and I dont see how this qualifies as a letdown spot...still on the road as big dogs. Its homecoming @ RU though and the place should be in a frenzy. Just think Solich's boyz fly under the radar and have enough to compete here. Scarlet Knioghts have been notorious for letting teams hang around and get back in games during the 4th quarter. Ohio U is 2-0 and coming off a SU win as 19 pt dogs @ Northern Illinois who probably has at least as good an offense as RU if not better ( Garrett Wolfe and Phil Horvath). Ohio had 500 yards of offense and after the 1st quarter did a decent job on WOlfe and held NI to 9 points over the final 3 quarters. Though very lucky this team did beat Pitt at home early on last year 16-10.

Oregon -4.5 -106(5units)
Feel that Oregon will be able to score on this OU defense and not confident in the OU offense. Especaiily the new startes on the OL or Paul Thompson as OU has struggled somewhat 1st 2 games

Virginia -10-109 (3units)

No one is impressed by the Cavs but thhis is still an ACC school playing a mid major and I dont think the line reflects it. Also WMU in a great letdown spot off a home upset now traveling.

SDST +14 -110 (3units)

Simply a Wisky fade.

5 PM starts

Baylor +13 -110 (3units)

TCU +2 -110 (3units)

Florida International +5.5 Even (3units) upgraded from 2 to 3

7PM starts

Oklahoma State -29.5 -108 (2units)

UL-Monroe +24.5 -108 (3units)

fade the Bama offense

Northern Illinois -23-108 ( 10 units)
Thanks to a home loss to Ohio U coupled with Buffalo's suprising performance at BG we get a soft line. Buffalo needed OT at home wo win 9-3 vs Temple!! All that last weeks 48 -40 loss @ Bowling Green shows em is how bad they actually are. So 2 weeks and 2 OT's but I cant figure out how you gan less then 300 yards of offense and score 40 points? I know a kick return and nblocked punt were ez 6's but come on 32 pass attmepts and 21 completions for 138 yards!!!!!
BG ran for 356 yards and had about 600 yds of total offense( three 100 yd rushers for BG). Buffalo had only 356 yds of total offense at home to Temple....Not sure what to make of NI's defense but not extremly impressed with the offense. Even if they could muster 21 points I think we could see 45 by the home team. Garrett Wolfe should have a field day! last note BG was -22...NI is clearly better then BG but laying only 1 point more! Bounce back game

USC -17 -120 (2units) & Over 56 -105 (3units) total dropping=scary

Figure USC is hanging 38+ at home so its a split worst case in that scenario. Never doubt the Trojans at home. I dont see why the Reggie bush scandal would hurt USC here. He should be an afterthought for that team now

Tennessee +3.5 -108 (2units)

Okay funny how no one is complaining about Leak now. I think Tenny was just flat last week in a sandwich game and while the defense of Tenny is nicked up I ''ll take points at home in this rivalary.

Nevada -2.5 -110 (3units)

Stanford -1 +100 (3units) down to 3 units from 5

Add- Wyoming +7.5 -105 (2units)

Teasers-
Miss St -1 , Texas A&M -17 , Ok St -19.5 (5units)
Under 49.5 Syr , Under 59 Iowa , Over 42 BC (1unit)
Miss St -1.5 , Under 49.5 Syr , Under 55 Florida State (2units)

GL

GL

Friday Baseball Thoughts & NCAAF

Day start:

Cubs +128(unit)

Just fading the slumping Reds offense as road chalk. As I mentioned yesterday the Reds dont hit much during the day and have lost something to the effect of 20 of the past 27 day starts. While the Cubbues have played well all year within the Central Division @ 38-38 considering there overall record. Who knows what to expect from Mateo other then he has a couple quality starts under his belt and a couple poor ones. Cubbies dont sport a great track record in day starts but do sport some nice indivual averages in day games. Might try taking the under here as well...


Result : Reds win 4-0...knew I should have played the under!(-1.00 unit)

Nationals -119 (7units)

First we have some trends -
Brewers 1-12 Last 13 at Nite
Brewers 2-11 Last 13 as Underdog
Brewers 1-9 L10 away and 9-22 since the Break away
Brewers 7-18 as Dog +100 to +125
Brewers 15-30 2nd H against teams with losing records

Nationals 6-3 last homestand and 16-9 since the Break at home

Basically I have researched and found out that of MILW 9 second Half wins on the road they had allowed 3 RUNS or less in 7 of those games. It's obvious MILW has slumped offensively but this also shows to what depth IMO. They basically need an extremely good pitching performance to win on the road...9 roads wins and 7 the opposition scored 3 or less!!

Ohka is one of the toughest SP IMO to get a handle on. You just never know what to expect from him. Well he is 2-2 away but Brerwers are 2-5 away when he starts. Whats interesting is both SP dont recieve much run support( thinking Under here). He started vs Wash (his former team) last year and pitched well. Only problem is the turnover is tremendous in the lienup as only Vidro and Scheinder played (3/7 3 RBI that day). So I looked closer at his road starts and they support the early information. Ohkas has 7 away start sbroken into his 2 wins , his 2 losses and his 3 No-decisions.

In his 2 wins he was execllent(@Cincy and @ NYM) 15 Inn 8 H 3R 2 ER 3 12K 1 Hr
In his 2 Losses he was poor 10 Inn 14H 10 R/ER 6 BB 4 K 4 hr
In his 3 ND's he was decent(but MILW lost all 3) 16 2/3 Inn 16 H 8 R / ER 6 BB 5 K 2 Hr.

As I said Milw seems to need strong pitching to win on the road and I feel this small glimpse backs up that arguement. Ohka was terrible last time out and knowing him he could bounce back here. However he has dropped his past 3 startt, past 3 road starts and MILW is 3-7 in his last 10.

Ortiz on the other hand is basically quality 65% and real shit the other 35%. He has for the most part pitched better at home. He was basically shelled in 2 home starts ( Atl , NYY) and solid or decent in teh other 12. Those 2 blastings he went 9 inn 20H 14 R /13ER 5BB-5K & 4 Hrs!! Take those out and at Home his numbers read 79 1/3 Inn 73 H 37 R / 34 ER 26 BB 50 K 7 Hrs in 12 starts.(3.86 ERA). Since July 1st at home (4-3) in 7 starts 45 2/3 Inn 44 H 23 R 21 ER 14 BB 28 K 6 Hr 4.14 ERA(3.07 w/o the ATL start) but ...that includes the ATL shelling and the other 6 starts he went at least 6 innings.

I think the UNDER might be a nice hedge but I am trying to get past the fact 5 of 6 Ortiz career went way OVER vs MIlW. To me that has more to do with hime being a rED for 4 of them and pitching at Cincy or Milw in most of those. Also Ohka last 3 starts have seen teh opposition score 10 runs each time....scary

HEDGE -Under 9 -104 (2units) NOW the Over 9 +117might play that and ride Wash. ( Und 9 -104 & Over 9 +117 middled)


Result- (-8.33 units) Brewers win 5-2 and I was fucking right again and lost! Milw needs a great pitching performance to win and the under was the correct hedge. The pain of being right and losing!

Looking at the Under 8.5 in Pitt and NYM. Basically cause Maholm is solid at home and as I mentioned the other nite Mets arent hitting well against LHP lately. maholm has 2 solid outings vs NY in 2006 and Pedro has 2 solid career starts sv pitt. The question is how healthy is Pedro and how sharp wiull he be....could also lead to a Pitt play. There is no way I see value in NYM.

Pitt +160 (unit) & Und 8.5 -130 (2units) against my best judgements

Result- Pitt win 5-3 (+3.6 units)

Braves +110 (5units) & Under 9 -109 (3units) & Under 9 +103 (2units)

If you take away the names of the SP and see Willis is 4-11 away with like 3 runs of support do you want to lay money with him here? Cormier has shown tremendous improvement in his past 3 starts while FLA's pen has shown no lead is safe with them. Willis started the season losing his first 6 road starts and then won 4 of 5 before losing the current 4 start streak. Willis has gone under 11 of 15 away and pitched real well last 2 starts In ATL and the braves are somewhat struggling vs LHP. Cormier last 3 starts span 20 innings 18 H 5 Er/R 3 BB 20 K 1 Hr. Impressive is that 2 of the 3 were away icluding a 3 run , 6 INN outing in Fla vs Willis. Last 2 starts have been 1 run in 7 inn. In 8 of th past 12 meetings this yr they have played UNDER.

Result- DUMB Fla wins 6-4 (lost -10.27units)

Depending On Clemens health I will look at Houston. Myers has some nice away numbers but realize that in 6 of his past 8 road starts have been average or worse( good @ SF and ChiC and thats it). Clemens has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 7 of 10( 2 and 3 in two others 9 of 10 3runs or less). He was solid @ philly before he left 5 Inn 1 hit 1 run and allowed something like 3 earned in 27 innings at home outside of the Cubs start.

Houston -124 (3units)

Pending!

Cards -105 (7units) NO PLAY - Wont touch. Pitchers tend to step when they get the last minute call and Hennessey has a good track record away.

The Cards even money at home? With Suppan who has a 2.90 ERA at home against Schimdt who is 4-7 away (SF 5-9) 3.65ERA. Schimdt has allowed 17 earned in 23 + innings spanning 4 starts and receives 3.43 run support away... Granted he has pitched well @ STL only 1 of those starts was @ Busch and in 04, 05 or 06...so old news IMO.

Suppans last 3 at home 22 INN 15 h and 3 ER!! He is 4-1 SU and 5-0 Under since the Break @ Home. Stl is 7-4 in his 11 2nd H starts despite making 6 of those away(remember how good his home splits are). The 2nd H 5-2 (7-4) in 11 starts 69.2Inn 66H 21R(4 Unearned last start) 16Er 6Hr 23BB 41K 2.07ERA .251BAA. Thinking Under 8.5 -104 as well

Thanks SF! For scratching Schidmt last second! Cost me 7 units!

DBacks -169 (3units) & -176 (2units) & Over 8.5 -110 (3units)

Think Col is 3-17 last 20 away and 7-25 since the break. Arizona only 16-15 at home since the break and 9-12 last 21 athome (4-3 this hstand). Webbs 9-1 (10-3 ) at home witha 2.60 ERA this season facing Kim who is 3-6 (5-7)with a 7.11 ERA. Arizona have hit Kim hard twice this year and Webb has been rock solid lately at home and is coming off1 hit shutout of StL. Despite 10 stars vs COL past few seasons onlyhave been home and despite splittng them he was good in both(15 Inn11 H 3ER in 2005). Webb is also 13-4 2.86 @ Nite. At home Webb has won 5 staright , lost 3 straight and won 5 staright (current). Thinikng OVER here 8.5

Looking at LAD who is 5-1 at home and 9-4 in the 2nd H vs LHP. Only scare part is they have struggled somewhat vs LHP losing 3 of 4 and struggling to hit Davis , Capuano and Glavine on recent trip. They smacked around Sean Marshall but blew a big lead. Wells just seems to not pitch that well on the road at this point is his career and Maddux has been solid athome this yr and as a LAD at home. Scare part is SD owns them going 11-1 this year but with LAD been extremely streaky they may have caught them at the right times. With the Over trends at Dodger Stadiumand against LHP thats what I am leaning towards.

The AL...

over 8.5 +110 Minny & Cleveland ( possible 2 or 3 units)

Guess what I am waiting for is to see if we get down to 8 here. Santana has been insane of late BUT I noticed he has some 'trouble" at the Jake in recent years. In his past 4 starts there he hasnt pitched past the 6th inning though he hasnt been at the Jake since 4/9( 10 runs in 22 1/3 inn past 4). Also I see before shutting down the Rays in TB( no major task theses days) he had a string of 6 road starts where he allowed at least 3 runs and never went more then 7 full. It was 3 runs (2er) @ Chi in 7 , 3runs in 7 @ Det, 4 runs in 6 @ KC , 3runs in 7 @ KC, 5 runs in 7 @ Tex, 5runs (4er) @ KC in 5 2/3. Thats 21 er(23r) in 39 2/3 innings and this is since 7/1 so all basically afterthe break. I mention that cause we know how awesome Johan is in the 2nd H every year.

Carmona just seems to be lost after losing the closers role and sent back to AAA to build up arm strength to start...the opposite of how the season started so he has been a yo-yo this year. He should get and at this point in Sept you could see a pitchre just getting a look as teams arent exactly playing to win. Same goes for Minny though a big lead could mean John is lifted early even if he is dominanting.

Basically my point is you can make a case that Cleveland WILL score 3 runs here maybe even 4. In that scenario especially with an 8 total you have to really LOVE the over thinking Minny will score at least 5 times tonite.

Over 8.5 -103 Minn & Cle (2units)

result - tied at 4 (+2.00 units)

Over 9 -109 DET & BALT (5units)

Well I was happy and suprised to see this move down from 9.5. After all Hayden penn has been BAD in his first 2 starts since being recalled. Truth is I dont know why such a quality prospect is struggling so mightily. I means 8 runs in the 1st and you dont get 3 outs then 7 rusn in 3 Innings of work vs NYY...even last year the road wa sstruggle...If I had to guess a decent outing would be in teh neighborhood of 3 runs in 5 innings. Then we get the O's pen which squandered last nites game in the mix.

Bonderman basically has 5 bad outings in a row now and really only 2 solid starts in his past 10. He hasnt pitched well at home(4.81 ERA) but has received hardly any run support 3.31 which combined witha great pen leads to his 9-4 UNDER mark at home. his last 5 he has allowed 6 (5er) , 4, 4, 4 (er in 4 innings and 7 (6er) with the longest outing being 6 1/3 innings. The earlier you exit the lesser quality reliever comes into the game. Bonderman tends to be extremely good or extremely bad and its been ahile since he was gone. He also has a rep as fading in the 2nd Half.

Result DET 16-3 ( +5.00 units) should have hammered it!

-Well my two cents on the Yanks- Sox is I dont see them playing as it rained for 2 days straight. Guess we get DH's on Sat and Sun. Yanks have smoked Beckett last two times out and NY is 9-1 past 10 vs Boston and w/o Manny is clearly the better team especially with Cy Wang on the hill. Johan deserves the CY but Wang is damn good.

-I would say if you feel Halladay is healthy and I dont think I want to gamble on his elbow stiffening up then -1.5 -125 looks decent. Think Seo is 2-10 as a SP in TB and I know TB has just 2 away wins since the break!!

Royals -104 (5units)

The Royals were a small dog yesterday so this line doesnt freak me. First SEA is 28-43 away compared to KC 33-41 @ home. KC 10-5 last 15 games which includes 6-2 both losses were Minny and Boston avoiding being swept!! They ae HOT plaian and simple.

Seattle trots out Francisco Cruceta who hasnt started since a brief spell in 2004. His AAA numbers were solid but not amazing by any stretch.

In KC we have Luke Hudson who if he didnt have that awful start at KC woukld be garnering more attention. I watched hiom vs NYY a week or so ago and he was damn solid. LAst 10 for him KC is 6-4 but that includes thegem they blew vs NYY(should easily be 7-3). Last 5 road starts he has quality starts and wins @ Fenway , Metrodome and Arlington. Last 5 @ Home were all quality and he is 3-2 as well. No worse then 3 runs in 6 innings. In 5 starts 32 1/3 innings 31 H 11 runs /11er 11BB 23K 3Hr(10K's vs NYY). He is 4-2 3.74 ERA @ Home in 6 starts. His st start at home he failed to go 6 innings but allowed just 1 run in 5 innings. So at hoem 4 wins , a 4-3 loss and the blwon game vs NYY which he was nasty. Somehow KC has like the 2n d most runs scored at home and home BAA...something along those lines. The start @ Cle is responsible for his ERA jumping 1.o5 points(4.20 instead). Also his ERA as a SP/o that start is 3.60 down from 4.86.

I think with th erecent coaches being fired Seattle could lose focus. Also there strength a strong PEN has taken some hits in recent weeks and isnt as strong.

Result - Pending blew 6-0 lead

Rangers +111 (3units)

The LAA bats are quieting down and Tejada has been solid in 4 of his last 5 starts . Only scare is the lone home start was his poor performance. Unnervin stat is Texas is 1-11 as a small home dog this year but generally they just havent played well at home PERIOD IMHO.

My reasoning is Weaver unhittable at home was nicked up in 6 innigs vs Texas allowing 8 hits and 3 runs( so the Texas lineup should be confident). Being this is in Texas the Rangers have the statistical edge in the pen 3.65 to 4.80(using home / away)

Weaver has allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of his past 5 away starts and in 5 of 9 starts in the 2nd Half. Might seem minor but he allowed 0,1,2 in his 1st 7 starts. You always wonder if he is tiring at this point in the year being he has little minor league experience. Basically if he allows 3 runsin 6 and the pen allows 1 or even 2 runs its hard to see LAA getting 5 when they have scored that many in any of the past 7 games and were almost no-hit before managing a 2 run HR yesterday.

Pending-

Under 9 +110 Oakland & ChiWsox(3units)

Would be an easy call if Loiaza hadnt been shelled last time out in TB. However he was on a 5 game roll which he allowed jsut 2 earned (3runs) in 38 2/3 Innings!!! Garland is a bit inconsistnet but has also been rolling.....6 of hsi past 10 starts he allowed 0 or 1 run. Those 6 starts spanned 44 innings and he allowed 3 earned (4runs). He has 2 other quality starts in that stretch 4runs in 8 and 3 runs in 6 inn. They Sox have 8 straight ROAD Unders and have scord 4 or less in 10 of 16 away. For Oakland 11 of the 12 games not hosting Texas have seen the opponnt fail to score 4 runs!

Result- Pending

Will finish up and finalize throughout the day!

NCAAF
Kansas +5 +100 (Now 5units) & Under 49 -102 (3units)

Both teams off poor performances and expecting defenses to lead the way 23-20.

Parlay (2units)
Nats -119 & Over 9 -103 Tigers( work in Mnny for a 3 tmer)

Last one-

Over 8.5 -113 LAD & SD (5units)

Thursday Thoughts 12:35 start

Padres +109 (3units)

At first Harang did look cheap but then I researched this. Reds have dropped 20 of the past 27 day games. Basically cause of lack of offense as only Encarnacion(.295) , Hatteberg(.278), Aurilia (.268) and Freel (.261) are above .260 in the day. Now SD has 6 hitters above .288 and seven above .264 in day starts. The Reds also have only scored 5 runs or more twice in the past 2 games. The series opener with LaRue's walkoff HR was one of them. Basically I think SD is simply playing better now.

Hensley's road starts arent that strong buts it due more to about 4 crap starts then not being able to pitch on the road IMO. Take out his home start vs Cincy and Hensley has allowed 2 runs just 1 earned total in 3 of his past 4 starts spanning 21 innings. In the day he is 4-1 ( Sd 8-3) with a 4.25 ERA and only 4 Hrs allowed...think ballpark here s thats key!! In only 3 of his past 10 starts has he allowed more then 2 runs.

Harang has dropped 5 of 6 starts and is not pitching in his ideal situations. His home / away splits show a 2.93 era but 4.78 home era! At nite his era is 3.44 and the day just 4.50! basically it seems he always to many Hrs at home(16-8).

With Cincy not hitting and doing less then year in day starts runs could be scarce against Hensley who has been solid( think 6 innings and 2 runs here). With Harang while he might go 7+ innings it seems likely he would allow about 4 or 5runs.

Result : SD wins 4-2 and I nail the SP stats!(+3.27 units)

Giants -187 (3units)

Matt Cain pure and simple here well and an Aaron Cook fade. Cook has dropped 8 of his past 10 starts against SF and those victories werent exactly well pitched games. After winning 3 of his first 4 away starts he has dropped 8 of 9 away now. Part of the problem is they dont hit for Cook on the road (3.38 runs when he starts) and overall lost 19 of his 29 starts.

Cain's last 5 starts have him pitching 34 innings and allowing only 17 hits 2 runs just 1 earned( 14 BB -36 K & 0 HR)!! cain has been tough on COL in his 4 career starts vs them (winning three and losing 2-1). This yr in 2 home starts he has allowed 3 runs in 12 2/3 innings against them.

In the 2nd Half Cain has made 7 starts at home with SF going 5-2. He has gone at least 6 2/3 in those starts and 49 2/3 innings allowing only 30 hits and 8 runs. With a 14 BB to 50 K ratio and just 2 Hrs. In the day he has been equally a s tough with a 3.53 ERA & 1.22 Whip. In 12 starts he went 74 innings allwoing only 51 hits with 39 BBs and 84 K's (just 5 Hrs)!

Guess someone really loved Colorado....saw -173 late and as high as -205 at one point

Result : SFG win 5-0 and Cain is superb!(+3.00 units)

Over 5 First 5 Innings -102 Cubs & LAD (3units)

Wade Miller simply not ready to pitch in the majors IMO. Went this way cause the pens have been solid on both sides.

Some trends have LAD 29-14 OVER in day games. Cubs 9-3 Over in Sept and 12-4 Over @ Home witha 9 or 9.5 total. Cubs day games 42-26 Over and 26-16 Over vs LHP.

Result : FUCKED! my own fault should have stayed away. Pagan out at home , 1st and 2nd out LA cant score and Pierre picked off then a single !! (-3.06 units) NOW Iam really fucking PISSED liked LA and should have played the game over. Nothing like losing 3 units when you should have won 6!!!

Night

Baltimore -116 (3units) & Under 10.5 +100 (5units)

Loewen has been somewhat impressive and I am willing to overlook the beating he took at Fenway cause he repeatedly has turned in solid outings vs the Yankee lineup(7runs in 24 innings). Then we see Manny looks OUT again and I noticed the last time Boston won vs a LHP on the road was July 24th in Oakland against Zito. Since then 7 straight losses with little on offense( 1er last 24 innings away against LH starters(last 4 ) and lost 12 of past 15 against LH's).

Orioles are up and down vs LHP but I cant back DiNArdo on the road even with two decent outings vs Balt this year.

As for the total I have mentioned Boston wose offensively well Balt tends to struggle vs LHP and as Imentioned DiNArdo 2 decent starts already vs them.

Braves -123 (3units)

Trying to avoid the sweep with there best SP on the hill. James has won 5 of 7 and sports a 1.96 ERA past 7 starts.

Under 5 First 5 Innings -112 Atl & Philly (just 2units now) & Under 9 +100 (2units)

As I mentioned James 1.96 ERA past 7 starts spanning 46 innings and 7-2 3.15 ERA @ Nite. He was soli allowing 1 run in 6 innings in his lone starts vs Philly. Moyer has pitched well as Philly outside of the NYM start and turned in some nice work vs the NL in 7 starts. Philly also has managed only 6 runs past 3 games against LHSP. Take out James bad start at home vs NY and he has allowed just 19 earned in 46 2/3 innings

Moyer was solid at home vs ATL as well going 7+ innings allowing 3 runs. In 3 of 4 with ATL he went at least 6 inn and didnt allow more then 3 runs. With Seattle he threw 3 gems vs the NL...24 Innings and 5 runs just 15 hits and 5 BB's.

Might play the game under as well but thinking 5-3 would ahve been on it had it stayed @ 9.5.

Under 9.5 +108 NYY & TB (5units)

The Yanks have CY Wang on the hill tonite who has gone under in 11 0f 15 home starts , 6 straight at home and 8 of 9 at home. Basically in his last 13 home starts( started slow after being hurt in Spring) he has allowed more then 2 runs just 3 times (4,4,and 5 in his worst start to LAA). After struggling vs TB last year he has been rock solid allowing just 11 hits and 3 earned in 24 1/3 innings.

Outside of Kazmir , Sheilds has been there best starter. Only knock is he is real solid or pretty bad. He already has one solid performance atthe Stadium and about 3 striaght solid road starts. The Red Sox are on deck so maybe a look ahead....

Value Play TB +1.5 +118 (unit)

RESULT- Canceled due to Wang being replaced by Karstens

Replaced by: Under 10 +103 (3units)NYY&TB.

LAA -126 (3units)

Really just riding LAA here with Escobar and fading Volquez. Edision has ben shelled lately and Escobar pitching fairly well and owns some nice career starts @ Arlington as an Angel. Volquez has 1 quality start in 8 career ones and Texas is 1-7 when he starts.

Looking at KC and the Under 9.5 In KC also slight lean towards under in Minny!

Last game of the nite:

Royals +107 (2units) & Under 9.5 +108 (3units)

Both teams struggle against LHP as Seattle produces 3.8 runs and KC 4.4 but has lost some key bats in Sanders , Sweeney and Teahen recently. The pens are question marks but hopefully its no worse then 3-3 after 6 innings. Seattle has managed to score 4 runs or less in 9 of 12 and is coming off a shutout which they are just 4 -10 SU next game. They are 23-16 UNDERS vs LHP, 10 -3 Under on Thurs (silly trend) and 8-3 under in Sept...sleepy bats. Washburn has struggled on the road but has enjoyed pitching @ KC in his career. Also Sea 10-3 under vs teams with losing records in the 2nd Half.
Thats all!
GL- Passed on the Reds over but looking hard at the Dodgers here(maybe Under SF)

College Football Week 3

Just decided that if you like Maryland you should be taking the ML as well . It's grossly INFLATED by several hundred dollars and that tells me to many people think WV can't lose and you know what usually happens with that mentality!! Worth a shot !!

Maryland +17.5 -105 ( 3units) Play the ML +890 (1unit)

West Virginia is certainly a talented team but they are somewhat unproven in my eyes. In White and Slaton they have 2 studs but look at who this duo has faced. They won @ Bowl game vs Georgia but these guys were 7 point dogs and the defense did not impress me. Last meeting Hollenbach was able to make some plays thru the air but his recieving corp was decemitated. Now thsi year they have featured run heavy game plans. right now banking this is to many points to give a decent team who is road tested thanks to the ACC and a rival. Hopefully Maryland can run enough to open the passing game up behind that massive OL and also keep theball out of WV's hands. Last year WV played an up and down Pitt team at home as 15 pt favs and didnt pull away till dominanting the 4th quarter. I' gladly take a 28 -14 WV win but 31 -14 would do just fine as well.

Still thinking about Toledo & Kansas

However I am in the process of finishing up the Sat card

Noon start

Illinois (buy down) -2.5 -120(15 units) hardly ever play 10 units so 15 is special

Leap of faith here. My main reasoning is the Orangeman just dont have much of an offense. This team lost 20-10 @ Wake and Mauck was injured late 3rd quarter of a tied game. Then they get Iowa at home without Drew Tate and go into OT!

At home they ran 82 plays for 280 total yards! Try 44 on the ground for 70 yards and 38 thru the air for 210 and managed a 10-10 tie after regulation! In the opener they ran 49 plays for 141 total yards with 30 runs for 91 yards and 19 pass attempts ( think 6 completions) for 45 Yards!

Syracuse has made strides on defense but this team is 1-10 lyr and 0-2 now so 1-12 under the new head coach which was a home win vs Buffalo! Last year on the road 0-5 and lost by 24 (3x) , 19 and 17. Against solid competition they scored 17 (2x) , 14 ,10 and 7 . However in three games the scored late 4th quarter TD's when the game was well decided and also a defensive TD so of 8 Tds the offense really only earned 4 all season!!

I thought Illinois looked terrible @ Rutgers but the defense IMO looked respectable and I am banking on Pierre Thomas. Illinois started the Zook era in tremendous fashion with a huge come from behind home win vs Rutgers then they trampled SJST and lead @ California to the start of the 4th quarter since then though they seemed to fall apart.

Looking at this closer a Big Ten bottom feeder outweighs a Big East bottomfeeder. Really think the under might a play here as 39 seems high. The Illini win 24-14 IMO.

(3 Units)
UAB +17 -110

Troy +17.5 -110

Really with out any Bullshit just think these numbers are to big. Troy looked impressive @ FSU with its JC QB transfer and GTech offensive always seems to underachieve.

The Bulldog offense also has struggled and UAB has played real solid defense and alreday played well @ Oklahoma.

Ohio U +15.5 -110 (5units)

Not overly impressed with the Rutgers offense to this point( Ray Rice has looked good). Ohio U coming off a big upset and I dont see how this qualifies as a letdown spot...still on the road as big dogs. Its homecoming @ RU though and the place should be in a frenzy. Just think Solich's boyz fly under the radar and have enough to compete here. Scarlet Knioghts have been notorious for letting teams hang around and get back in games during the 4th quarter. Ohio U is 2-0 and coming off a SU win as 19 pt dogs @ Northern Illinois who probably has at least as good an offense as RU if not better ( Garrett Wolfe and Phil Horvath). Ohio had 500 yards of offense and after the 1st quarter did a decent job on WOlfe and held NI to 9 points over the final 3 quarters. Though very lucky this team did beat Pitt at home early on last year 16-10.

Northern Illinois -23-106 ( 7 units)

Thanks to a home loss to Ohio U coupled with Buffalo's suprising performance at BG we get a soft line. Buffalo needed OT at home wo win 9-3 vs Temple!! All that last weeks 48 -40 loss @ Bowling Green shows em is how bad they actually are. So 2 weeks and 2 OT's but I cant figure out how you gan less then 300 yards of offense and score 40 points? I know a kick return and nblocked punt were ez 6's but come on 32 pass attmepts and 21 completions for 138 yards!!!!!

BG ran for 356 yards and had about 600 yds of total offense( three 100 yd rushers for BG). Buffalo had only 356 yds of total offense at home to Temple....Not sure what to make of NI's defense but not extremly impressed with the offense. Even if they could muster 21 points I think we could see 45 by the home team. Garrett Wolfe should have a field day! last note BG was -22...NI is clearly better then BG but laying only 1 point more! Bounce back game

Probably unlikely I will write these all up this week....

2 Units

Minnesota -41.5 -101 (2units)

Temple IMO has shown they really are that bad and there offense is even worse. Minny likes running it up vs inferior out of conference opponents and if they get to 56 ....well Temple has what 3 poinst so far this yr!

Cincinnatti +29.5 -103 (2units)

Cincy is young and bad but a situational fade. Huge win on the road vs Ohio State and penn St on deck. Might keep it real simple to avoid any game film. You score 35 points and its tough to cover a 30 pt spread.

Central Michigan +1 -103

Akron beat a bad and underacheiving NCST squad. CMU won @ Akron last year and I like how they played against BC.

SD ST +14 -110

Really a Wisky fade.

Tenny +3.5 -110

I think most of us are shocked at Tenny being the dog at home at here. Whats best is people thinking Fla should be favored...the AF game was a look ahead spot.

Baylor +13 -110

To many points

TCU +1.5 -104

Fading TT as road chalk even this small.

UL Monroe +24.5 -108

Bama struggling on offense

FIU +5 +102

Really think BG is that bad...OT at home vs Buffalo. The defense has bad for awhile now

Ok St -29.5 -108

Should see at least 42here and I dont think FAU has 14 in them

3 Units

Northwestern -17 -109

Nice bounce back spot against a team who cant stop the run. Hopefully to much focus was on the late Coach randy Walker in the home upset last week. Plus 3 rd straight away...

Auburn -3 -120

Home team owns the series and I just feel the losses of Addai and Skylar Green are felt here

Nevada -2.5 -104

Nevada always tough at home and CSU hasnt looked like much

Stanford -1 +100

Edwards won 41 -38 @ Navy last year and dont see why it cant happen and wont happen again.

5 Units

Marshall +10 -107

The Thundering Herd had them beat at home last year and it seems as if KSU offense is even worse this year( 0 TDs on offense vs E.ill)

Over 52 -110 Mich St & Pitt

Expect the Panthers to break the 30 point mark here and Stanton shouldnt have much trouble getting 24 or so.

Michigan (bought) +6 -120

Was huge on ND last week however I feel that Michigan is much better prepared due to experience for this matchup. ND got some breaks early that really helped to keep PSU down. ND has won past 2 but as decent size dogs.....

Oregon -4.5 -106

Feel that Oregon will be able to score on this OU defense and not confident in the OU offense. Especaiily the new startes on the OL or Paul Thompson as OU has struggled somewhat 1st 2 games.

Teaser Miss St -1 , Ok St -19.5 , A7 M -17 (5units)

Miss St can play defense and at home should score enough on Tulane, the back 2 should be high scoring games with the dogs having inept offenses. Havent played and might subsitute A&M for someone else.

Leans -

BYU @ +6.5 or +7

Not impressed with the BC defense and Beck can air it out....

Virginia -10 -109

Really like fading the dog off a home upset but Cavs scare me that much I am trigger shy

Under 52 Lville

Since Miami's Offense is non existant if they can contain Lville its plausable. Problem is Miami hast stopped many good offenses lately....see LSU

Wash +3

Fade Fresno away

Clemson +4.5

FSU has zero running game and Clemson deserved to win @ FSU. Scare point is how bad Clemson plays @ FSU

Neb +18 and over 57

Thinking shootout and hoping Nebraska can score enough but I could see mid 20 win by USC.

A&M -27

Not sure I should fade the Army defense

UCF +1 -101

This is what I am thinking in addition to what was posted yesterday. Good Luck feel free to comment andhopefully I can expand on these

GL

WEDNESDAY thoughts (MLB

2:10 start

Under 8 -110 Houston & StL(3units)

Houston is trying to avoid being swept in a crucial series and sends out its ace SP. Oswalt has pitched well in his career @ Busch(obviously just 1 start at the new one) 10 runs in 39 innings and 6 straight unders. He is also 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in only 5 day starts. He has allowed 3runs or less in 6 consecutive starts and tends to be at his best in his career in teh months of AUG & SEPT.

Marquis has strung together consecutive good outins allowing 5 runs in 14 innings. Both SP are showing the abilityu to get deep into this game limiting the pens. A plus since Izzy is out and Lidge ineffective mostly this year. I am concerned with Marquis on 3 days rest BUTthat should theoritically be a good thing for a sinker ball pitcher. These SP squared off twice in May this year and one of those was Jason's best start.

Bottom line is Houston doesnt hit during the day 725 abs and 15 hrs from this lineup. While StL has just gaudy DAY numbers and record to boot. Thing is we always hear good pitching beats good hitting. So here's to hoping Oswalt is sharp and STL only scores 4 times...

Value Play - Cardinals +137 (unit)

Result : Houston wins 5-1 (+2.00 units)

Figure STL has a tremendous offensive advantage here and STL could deliver a knockout punch. Trendwise the Home plate UMP does well for Home teams especially dogs. Think 5 straight home wins and 6 straightvunders for Barrett.

Well a GREAT JOB by Jason Marquis!!! Guess I should have not overlooked the 3 days rest situation as much as I did.


3:35 PM

Under 9.5 -104 LAA & CHWSOX (5units)

Garcia has success against LA going 13-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 13 career starts. As a WSox he has fared just as well in 6 starts . In lA he has allowed 7 runs in 23 innings and at home 8 runs in 21 1/3 innings backing a trend that he pitches better away(which is holding true in 2006 really).

Saunders has 2 bad starts in his career that has been rock solid to date. Take out that bizarre outing vs NY and he has allowed 4 earned and 7 runs in 34 1/3 innings of 5 home starts(only 1 Hr)

The WSox trio of Dye , Thome and konerko is slumping going 2 for 34 last 3 games which is good news since both lineups have solid offensive day splits. Sox are 7-3 UNDER in Sept and LA 8-1 UNDER. Silly trend has chicago being 14-7 UNDER on WED this yr.

LAA -116 (3units)

Outside of the career stats why would you like Garcia and Chicago here?? Saunders as has been extremely tough to score on and Garcia has a handful of decent starts on the road but most he is allowing 5 runs or so. WSox have been fading and LA is 8-3 in Sept now. Not to mention the Wsox pen has had some problems of late.

Result: WSox win 9-0 ( +1.68 units)

Mariners -101 (3units)

Basically just riding Baek/ Seattle and fading Toronto. Baek has improved in each outing and Seattle has been inconsistent on the road IMO. Seattle is 25 -18 vs the EAST this season.


Under 8.5 -108 Seattle and Toronto (2 units)

Just riding the tons of Under trends here with good SP on the mound.

Result : Jays win 10-0 (-5.19 units)

Brewers w/ Sheets -133 (3units)

Fading Chacon and his 5 innings while banking that MILW will avoid teh sweep with its ace on the hill. Sheets has been tough on pitt in his last 2 starts while Chacon is impossible to figure out unless you believe he will keep alternating fairly decent starts and awful starts teh rest of the way( he's due for fairly decent.

Under 8.5 -109 Milw & Pitt (2units)

Two slumping offenses..........

Result Brewers win 2-1 ( +5.00 units)

Over 10 +112 Philly & ATL Game 1 (2units)

Davies says he sees improvement but the numbers dont bear it yet. Wolf hasnt pitched well for the most part this year since returning and ATL has always given him trouble.

Result : 6-5 final ( +2.24 units)

Diamondbacks -139 (5units) CHANGE to (3units)

Arizona trying to avoid being swept at home and in the season series sending out Livan to avenge his loss last week against his former team in his former home. Really this is just be fading Armas and his Nats on the road. Armas has been rocked in three of his past 5 road outings and dropped 6 of 7 away since starting teh year off fairly well in his road starts.

Result : Dbacks win 4-2 (+3.00units)

Marlins -108 (7units)

Glavine has a 5.06 road ERA this year and there still is no way of figuring out what to expect from him. More importantly Olsen continues to pitch well and NY has dropped 11 of 15 against LHP. Which many point to having do with Nady being dealt and Green and Chavez both LH seeing most of those abs. Plus the slide of David Wright who has recently heated up. Before his earlier win Glavine had dropped 4 staright in Fla as a Met. Fla is 13-4 at home past 17 and gave the NYM a win yesterday. That pen is scary!! But Stultz , Kuo and james held nY to 1 run in 3 games on the recent NY homestand....not exactly CY canditates.

Result : Mets win 7-4 (-7.56 units)

Need to vent here cause the METS FUCKING SUCK!!! What a joke that they get every break possible!! There pen is solid but thats it! Fucking BS squibbler by Delgado and FUCKING Wild Pitch that Olivo had 10 days to compose himself and get the runner at home. Ruined my whole fucking nite and for cinsecutive nites they dont deserve it. Mets suck and will be annihilated by the AL!

Padres -139 (3units)

Not crazy about paying to back Peavy away but he shut them down last outing inPetco. Cincy has lost 11 of 16 and the offense is slumping but thanks Bochy pulling all of his regulars late in teh game yesterday SD was left with zip on offense. SD despite blowing the game yesterday still has a huge edge in the pen.

Result : SD 10-0 ( +3.00 units)

Under 10 -110 Cle & KC (3units)

Westbrook sports a 2.80 ERA and hasnt allowed an earned run in hsi apst 2 outings at home vs KC. DelaRosa has 3 decent away starts under his belt and is coming off an impressive start in KC vs NYY. Hopefully that Blister on his hand isnt an issue(deLaRosa)

Result : 6-2 Final (+ 3units)

Orioles -131 (3units)

Bedard on the hill , No Manny and Wake offthe DL.

Result : O's win 4-0 ( +3.00)

Under 10 -104 NYY & TB (5units)

Lets face it lidle has been awful on the road and solid at the Stadium. HAmmel has ben decent in all his starts and I wouldnt be suprised to see the Yankee bats stay abit quiet after exploding for 13 runs in 3 innings yesterday and then going to sleep. TB couldnt hit off NY until we brought in Dotel who simply is not ML ready yet.

Result ; 8-4 Final ( -5.20 units)

Fucking Mets ruined a great job by me! Again!

New additions:
Parlay NYY -255 / Cleveland -205 ( Loss -1)

Under 8.5 -106 LAD / ChiC (2units)

Result : LAD wins 6-0 (+2.00 units)

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Only posted the Monday Nite games in week 1 which was a debacle. This is all preliminary.

Over 37 -101 Miami & Buffalo (5units)

Be patient here waiting to see if this dips below 37 but dont let 37 get away either. Both defenses had solid 1st Halves before IMO showing there true colors. Buffalo playing @ NE watched as the Pats went 12 plays 93 yds for a TD , then 14 plays for 63 yds for a short FG , and 11 play 53 yds to end the game and run the clock out. On 1 second half possession Brady was picked on his 1st attempt. Last year Lee Evans had 3 1st Quarter TD's in Miami from Losman and thats a matchup they will look to exploit again. Chambers had a huge 4th quarter finishing with 15 catches for 238 yards. Both defenses had to little to say in stopping opponents running games in the opener. The Pats ran up and down the field on Buffalo and Ronnie Brown will be licking his chops here. Was really unimpressed with Miamis revamped secondary as well. While buffalo did little after the first quarter they gave away alot of momentum in the opening drive of the second half by getting stuffed on a 4th and 1 and NE's 7 yd line. They had moved 10 plays for 69 yards and the failure to kick the FG or convert IMO opened the door for the Pats to come back(down 17-7 at the time, could have been 20-7 or so). Just seems like atotal based on past reputations.

Total watch 42 -101(over ) Cincy & Cleveland

The more I look at this matchup with Cleveland banged up in the secondary and Cincy probably getting Housh back it seems enticing. Cleveland should have allowed alot more then 19 points to New Orleans. They had 3 FG's inside the yd line( two inside the 5 yd line) and a better offense would have executed IMO. Cincy had a big 2nd Quarter and IMO just cruised afterward. Real hard for me to believe the Bengals dont get at least 28 - 31 points here. Cleveland lost Jurevicus to injury but didnt play all that bad in the 2nd Half vs New Orleans. Cincy had the benfit of playing against a new watered down OL that is much worse then I expected. I am thinking Cle usually plays Cincy tough and should manage at least 14-17 points here.

Lions +9.5 -115

Lions received 7 points or more on 3 occassions in 2005 and covered ATS on 3.

Texans +13 -103

Just one of those spots were Indy could be real flat after the Manning Bowl. The Colts defense didnt look that good and maybe karma pays back that NYG BS loss. From what I understand the 'sharps' played this at 14 and 15 which is why the number dropped.

Over 42 -112 Philly & NYG

McNabb was able to spread the ball around vs Houston and NY struggled stopping 3rd conversions and in general against Peyton. Philly will be without Lito Shephard is OUT and Ron Hood will start in his place and expect NY to attack that.

Raiders +11.5 +100

I know Oakland looked terrible but this number is ridiculous IMO. most people didnt think Balt could win in TB now they think they will crush Oakland?? Hopefully the deal Porter by this game and get that headache resolved. I just wasnt overly impressed with Balt's offense and Oaklands defense wasnt that bad except for the penalties. Ravens go 80 yards for the opening TD and then what? Hardly anything till the TB defense is exhausted after continous 2 minute offensive possessions. I am still in shock how bad the Oak OL looked but this offense just has to many weapons to be so poor again. I though Oakland played well on the road in its first 5 road games but fell apart afterwards.

Packers +2 +-102 (7units) & ML +116 (3units)

Ridiculous line!!! A team that lost 52 -3 @ Lambeau last season is now favored there?? GB lost to a solid playoff team in Chicago, who did the Sainst beat ...the F'N Browns! I think GB struggled some in pass defense but the Saints didnt impress me in the passing game. They did have a nice day running it and GB has been tough to run in Lambeau. NO had poor efficiency in the red zone going just 1/4 and 0/2 in goal to go. GB allowed allowed only 1 offensive TD and it was a nice pass thrown 40-50 yds to Berrian. Not sure NO has a deep threat to spread the defense. GB should benefit greatly from Koren Robinson if he is able toplay. Just a tremendous overreaction IMO.

Falcons +5.5 -102 looking to buy to 6(7units)

TB will need to bounce back and you couldnt have selected a better opponent as TB has won 3 staright in the series. As well as 4 of 6 in ATL and 7 of 10 overall. Vick was solid but his completion percentage was lacking and lets face it they wont run all over TB like Carolina. carolina was missing its star WR whats so impressive about that win?? Bucs were 5-3 away last year SU and 3-1 ATS as a dog. Loooking for TB to get healthy on the OL( and Quarles @ LB) and curious to see how bad Kearney and Abraham got hurt.

Teams who were shutout past 3 years are 12-8 SU next game and played all 3 from last week as UNDERDOGS.

Here are the 4 PM starts:

Over 44 SF & STL / SF +3

Like the total more. Really cant say that STL defense improved all that much because I felt it was Denver just imploding more then anything. Bottom line is you have to expect this to be a close game played in the 20's at least. SF defeated the Rams both meetings last year and you have to like what we saw from Alex Smith and Co in Arizona. The defense leaves some to be desired but thats why we expect STL to score some. Frank Gore looked good and dont let the absences of Larry Allen and Jonas Jennings worry you cause they missed much of the opener anyway. The Rams allowed 160 yards at home on the ground! Then double check and see Alex Smith threw for 286 yards on the road!! SF had 217 yards rushing @ STL last year and Stephen Jackson hasnt been solid running against SF.

Over 47 -104 Seattle & Arizona

The Cardinal defense was extremely unimpressive and thats not good news considering there next opponent. Seattle scored 30+ both games last year and saw Shaun Alexander runs for 313 yds in 2 games!!! Then remember that outside of a 17-10 victory in SF the Arizonas defense allowed at least 28 points in all of there road games not including the last game of the season( so 6 of 7). We know the firepower Arizona is now packing and hopefully a few more of those drives turn into 7 's on the board instead of 3. Thinking 31-17 is reasonable since only NY 21 and Atl 18 topped 17 points.

Thinking KC +10.5 and Under 40-113 KC & Den

Huard probably isnt going to do much but we still have LJ and expect Herm to run a ton!

Jets +6 -105 (also Under 37 possibly)

New Englan unimpressive in a 2 point home win vs Buffalo. My honest feeling is this team is in turmoil as players continually get discarded there and really they are thin @ WR. Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown combined for 4 catches with Gabriel and Jackson not playing. The NYJ defense played well until momentum sawyed Tenny's way after a few botched FG's.

Initial thoughts

Tuesday thoughts

Wow! Did I suck last nite. Really embarrassing performance by myself on the heels of a nice (13-7) unposted weekend. Thats why I always say you need to post everyday .

Indians -201 (3units) & Under 9.5 -102 (5units)

Last start of the year for Sowers since they want to limit his innings. Think he is on a 9 game run where he has allowed 3 runs or less and actually 2 runs or less 8 times. KC is missing Teahan and probably Sweeney with Hafner done for the year in Cleveland. Some real solid sticks missing. KC only 10-33 vs LH SP this season and Hernandez has just 2 excellent away starts since his return from the DL. The Tribe had been hot at home wining 11 of 12 and playing extremely well against KC of late winning 9 of 10 and seven straight at the Jake. Only German and DeJesus have solid numbers against LHP and you feel Sowers will go all out tonite. KC is .200 last 10 games against LHP and .244 away.

Red Sox -104 (3units)-1.5 +160 (2units) & Over 10 -102 (2units)

You hate backing a team who has dropped something like 17 of 22 away. However Cabrera nevers seems to pitch well against Boston dropping four of five starts against them since the start of 2005 and his longest outing is 5 2/3 innings vs them. His recent success at home is a concern but Boston is always tough on Balt(think 11-1 this yr and 17-8 L 25 @ Camden). Balt 2-8 last 10 and 15-30 vs LH SP this year. One edge is Balt did see Randy Johnson last nite and hit him fairly well.

Over 9.5 -114 NYY and TB (2units)

Hard to not like NY since the Rays are 2-20 away since the Break but this lineup is improving IMO. We dont know what to expect out of Moose since he is trying to get back in form and being a touch SP you just dont know what to expect IMO. With Mo out of the picture it also clouds the pen picture.

Tigers -130 (2units)

Detriot is sliding but Kennt Rogers isnt part of the reason. Texas although a verysolid road team is hitting just 250 on the road vs LHP. Rogers has won 11 of 14 home starts and has a 2.80ish ERA at home. Padilla hasnt been sharp lately pitching so-so or poorly in four of his last 5 outings.

LAA -126 (5units)

BAsically youhave the inconsistent Buerhle on the hill who really has had more trouble on the road facing Ervin Santana. Santana loves pitching at home winning 11 of 15 starts witha 3.17 ERA(compared to 5.67 away for Buerhle). LAA is 26-20 vs LHP and playing much better lately then Chicago although LAA's bats are quiet lately.

Marlins -114 (2units)

Josh Johnson has terrific numbers at home and versus NY this year while Oliver Perez has been a train wreck on the road.

Padres -115 (5units)

Chris Young is 10-2 away (.251 ERA and .193 BAA)which is suprising since Petco is so pitcher friendly. Cincy has ben sliding and while Milton has been pitching well he hasnt been winning. He has lost 9 of 13 home starts with a 5.60 ERA and struggled in 2005 at home as well. The park is just not conducive to his style( fly ball pitcher). SD 300 L10 vs LHP and .281 on the season away vs LHP. Cincy will probably be w/o Junior as well.

Under 8 +105 or 8.5 -110 LAD & Chicago(5units)

Three keys:

1- Strong wind blowing from center
2- Lowe pitching extremely well lately and being a sinkerballer.
3- LAD struggling vs LHP, scored just 2 times in 3 games started by LHP recently ...see Doug Davis , Chris Capuano and Tom Glavine

Thats all I think. Good Luck

Really didnt have enough free time lately BUT I AM BACK NOW!!

Monday Nite Football 9/11

Early Game:

Skins ML -199 (3 Units)

I went ML cause I just couldnt see how Minny can win this game. You have a new revamped OL which will not be at it's best tonite(needs more reps together and in a visiting stadium). It was and has been extremely tough to run on the Skins in Washington. The only backs that had success were LT , Alexander(only the 2nd Half) and Tiki to a degree. Basically guys with better track records then Chester Taylor. Otherwise there arent many yards to be found for opponents. Thats leaves the passing game. Is Brad johnson throwing to Taylor , Robinson , WIlliamson and his TE's going to scare anyone?? Yes, hypothecially these WR's are capable of big plays and days BUT Look at what Greg Williams did to better offenses in the postseason. Really hard to see how Minny tops 14 points here w/o the aid of a Defensive score or punt or kick return TD.

This Viking team was 3-5 away last year but was getting 9 vs NYG and 6 vs GB!!! They won SU but watched the other teams self destruct. NY lost 24-21 and didnt allow an offensive TD. Then Minny won @ DET as favs . Not very impressive. What is new about this years version?? They have always struggled outdoors and all 5 losses were by at least a TD last year. Think about getting 6 @ GB and 9 @ NY......isnt Wash clearly better then GB and a notch below NY?? I think so ... Minny had 9 wins and all against bad teams ....best road win @ NYG and best home win vs STL. Then Det and GB twice and Chi in week 17 , thats 7 wins the other 2 home wins vs New Orleans and Cleveland. Excited about Minny yet??? They added Tank Williams cause opposing QB's were compiling lofty yardage totals against them and drafted Greenway both are OUT for the year. They lost there 2 best WR's from last year in Burleson and Koren Robinson(at least best talents if not statistically)

They had 9 TD's away last 4 games but 4 were either defensive , punt or kick returns and another was a 80 yd TD pass. Which sort of backs up my 10-14 pt range I see Minny getting without some help from a defensive or special teams TD.

Now Wash stunk all preseason ( see Al Saunders dropping 10 staright preseason)but that happened last year as well. They did start slow offensively after that last year and wont see much of Portis tonite but with Betts and Duckett the running game looks decent. Minny was stout versus the run last year on the road it was the passing game that killed them. Now that Brunell has more weapons with Lloyd and Randle-El aboard. What people seem to forget is that the Skins offense started slow after adjusting to Brunell being the QB then struggled alot in the 2nd Half of the year cause they had NO WR's outside of Santana Moss. Patten went down and they had ZIP( it was Taylor Jacobs and McCants if I recall)! Now teams CAN'T focus solely on Moss and if they do Lloyd , Cooley and Randle-El can make plays. Wash improved greatly IMO from last season in minor areas.

Under 36 -101 Wash/Min(1unit)

Number somewhat on the low side but really can see this at 17-10 or 20-13. Dont really expect Wash to top 21 pts after the sluggish start in the preseason. However with the likelyhood of alot of pass attempts here due to lackluster running games the CLOCK might be running slowly. This scariest final is 23 -14 , 20-17 or 24 -14 game... but hoping Wash offense starts slow again and Minnys defense has vastily improved n the road.


Over 42 -101 SD & OAk (5units) & Over 41.5 -104 (2units more)

Basically the SD defense is built on or better at stopping the run but w/o Foley that might even take a step back. That leaves Mr.Monday Nite Randy Moss to make some plays in the passing game on an average secondary. I like how Brooks progressed as the preseason went on and dont sleep on WR's like Alvis Whitted and Ronald Curry or forget Jerry Porter is still there(dont buy Randy's moaning....Whitted had 14 receptions in 1 game last year). The key for Oakland is the play of the OL. SD can get to the QB and the OAK OL has been so-so in the preseason. What I like is the fact last year this game was in the 50's both meetings(but fell below) and now we get low 40's! Seabass has looked solid in the preseason and hopefully he gets off to a quick start. After tonite Lamont Jordan should be more then an afterthought.

Oakland +3.5 -115 bought the half NOW--(2units)

While SD has owned them I dont see how one can overlook the loss of Brees who did alot in those SD wins. I'll take Shell and Randy Moss getting points at home on MNF! Real simplistic approach as there isnt much of a valid arguement for Oakland other new start , new regime and talent on the roster....

Basic Rankings for NFL( 1, 2 ,3, 5,7 , 10 Unit increments)


TEASER-
Over 32 Oakland , Under 46 Washington and Skins +6 (3units)

Good Luck

Saturday Thoughts

All I know is the last few days have been disappointing to many inconsistent sessions and poor choices.

MLB-

Rangers -109 (3units)

Looks like Travis Hafner will not play . Really Cliff Lee is a guy who goes out and gives you 6 innings and either allows 3 or 4 runs. Volquez is an unknown and I really am not sure what he will give you. With that said Lee has dropped 3 straight starts and 8 of 10. The Rangers also hit .300 at Home vs LHP and in Lee's 2 prior starts there he hasnt shown much. The big thing here was Clevelands inability to get outs from the pen on the road this year. The pen has greatly improved of late but much of there play was at home. Can they now lower that 5.80 Road era? Tribe play better in day games and Rangers at nite , plus Tribe really hasnt played well against Texas past few meetings. So after taking game 1 I look for Texas to tie up the series.

Under 10.5 -111 White Sox and Royals (2units)

Buerhle has struggled the past 2 months but has been decent past few outings. The road has been a huge concern for him in 2006 but he has 4 quality starts against KC including 2 at KAuffman. Just 6 earned runs in 24 innings this year. KC tends to struggle against LHP . Perez has pitched vs Chi twice and although the frist lasted just 4 inning it was to stretch out his arm.(11 INN 8 H 6 R)

Over 9 -101 LAA & Det(5units) & First 5 Inn +102 Over 5 (2units)

Basically the 2 youngsters IMO are tired. Saunders has complained about shoulder fatigue and really has been ineffective past few outings. Now he faces a Tiger team that generally hits LHP well and we could see a repeat of his last performance. Verlander also has struggled in teh second half as DET has looked to get him xtra rest whenever it could. LAA hit him enough in teh 1st outing in May to lead me to belive they should do so again. LAA is 5-1 Over after getting shutout. Lean heavily towards DET here.

Under 9 -112 Oakland & Balt -112 (5units)

The O's are the walking wounded with Mora , Hernandez , Patterson , Gibbons and Mora all possible sitting this one out. Chavez is questionable for Oak. Marvin Hudson tends to be an Under Ump and Oakland is 20-12 UNDER when opposing a LHP! Haren rebounded from his poor start in Tor with a strong 12 K effort in Texas. AT home Hren has seen 8 of 11 unders and 7 of in day starts. Haren has a 2.77ERA in both day and home starts.

Phillies Game 1 -125 (5units)

Yesterdays writeup

Have more MLB and NCAAF......