NFL week 2


1 PM starts

Buffalo @ Miami -6 /37

First with Buffalo this defense only allowed 19 pts vs NE last week but the Pats shredded them in the second half. NE had 36 rushes for 180 yards and I am sure Ronnie Brown will be a huge factor as Buffalo has been near the bottom vs the run for awhile now. Since the start of the 2005 season the Bills have allowed 19 pts on the road 3 times that is the low water mark (21 and 24 after that, the rest all 24++(so 4 x))

In NE the 2nd H saw the Pats start at there 7 and march 93 yards on 12 plays(6+ minutes) for a TD . Actually IMO that drive was the game because NE stopped MacGahee on a 4th 1 at the 7 after a long 5+ minute opening 2nd H drive that could have seen BUFF extend its lead to 20-7 or 24-7. NE made the stop went up the field and made it 17-14. After that the numbers are numbing for Miami 3 drives they went 3 out on the 1st two occassions amassing -12 yards. The last possession they went 4 plays for 12 yds before punting. So after that stop Miami ran 10 plays for ZERO yards and had the ball for apprx 4 :40 minutes of the final 25 minutes! On teh 1st possession I mentioned NE going 93 yds and scoring. Next possession they go 14 plays for 63 yards but get stuck at the Bills 13 and settle for 3 points on another 5 + minute drive. After Bills safety NE gets the ball back and Brady is picked on the 1st play. NE gets the ball back with 6:13 to play and Buffalo never seees it again run 12 plays for 60+ yards and chewing up the clock.

Now Troy Vicent is OUT and Spikes looks extremely doubtful. Point is Miami scored 17 @ Pitt and there is no reason why they cant score here...at least 24. Miami scored 24 and 32 past 2 home games vs Miami with QB's names Frerotte and Rosenfels , AJ Feeley. They also aloowed 23 and 42 to Buffalo with Bledsoe and Losman @ QB. Lee Evans loves Miami as he had 3 1st Quarter TDS last year and the season before had 2 TD's( 9 R -227yds 5TD). The Buffalo offense only 10 points vs NE but they also gave points away by going 4th and 1 so realistically they managed 13 vs a solid NE defense. Which is good for me since I believe Miami will get 24+ and Bills 13++ I have a play on the over.

Now Miami sucks as a home fav recently but suprised more people arent talking about Miami here. Did that Pitt game change so many minds? They have had along time to prepare and Buffalo's defense is THIN.

PLAY:
Over 37 -103 Miami (10units)
Dolphins -6 -106 (5units) Hedge 1 unit Bills +7.5 -120

See the Dolphin being bet fairly heavily today and I think I would only be scared if this went to -7. So no changes.

Carolina @ Minnesota

Real simple w/o Steve Smith I dont see what this offense of Carolina possesses. However I think Carolina does get an advantage by Smith being OUT cause they can pratice without him but it would be ideal if expectations were he was out and they werent left wondering. LAst year wasnt impressed with the Carolina offesne on the road and w/o Smith I dont think they score much on minnesota. So expecting a big time defensive battle here.....Panthers have one OL out another doubtful and Dan Morgan was hurt and will miss. Carolina D has been tough since day1 of the exhibition season...17-13 type game.

With Steve Smith OUT playing Minnesota and Under 37. Played Minny at +1 and might middle it. My feeling is carolina's only chance to win w/o Smith is to shut down Minny...cause points will be scarce.

Play:Under 37.5 -120 (3units)

I have Minny +1-108 for 3 units from mid-week since I never thought Smith would play. Now we are at Minny -2 and once I can get it to +3 Carolina I will make a nice middle...truth is at +3 I really like carolina. Its been all minny smoney since mid-week. HEDGE Minny +1-108 and Carolina +3 -120ish(3units)

Cleveland @ Cincy -10 /42

Think if Housh doesnt play its a huge hit again for the offense. They dont use there TE and 3rd down back Chris Perry is OUT. Cincy is deep at WR but Bodden did well versus Chad last time and if Winslow is correct CJ might not be heard from on Sunday. Cincy looks like it will miss Levi Jones on the OL. With a guy like Crennel playing a rivalary matchup the points have to look good. Last few games in Cincy have been intersting 3 pt win last year , 10 point win but slugfest the previous year and in 2003 Browns won straight up as 8 pt dogs. Cincy tends to play Unders at home early on under Lewis so I wouldnt be shocked by another low scoring affair especially with a strange drop from 42 to 41.

Play- Browns +10 -107(2units)

No change but wow that 40over total looks enticing!

Lions @ Bears -9.5 / 32

I have thought long andhard about this game. What I have decided is a simple logical approach. Yes , the Lions looked decent last week but they were also 6 point HOME DOGS in that game. Which says alot the strength of your team when your catching 6 at home. Now DET & CHI always play tough games but I remember the Lion offense looking clueless last year vs CHI. Now the Bears at home over there final 6 regular season games allowed 1 TD!! Thats right folks only Samkon Gado's 2 YD run over the final 6 games!! Minnesota 3pts , ravens 6 pts , SF 9 pts , Panthers 3 , GB 7 pts and Falcons 3 pts!! Thats insane!!!

So the simple question is how is an indoor team going to play on grass and improve upon the 6 pts they scored last week vs a top rated defense? I just dont see how they do it and gets me to thinking that its very likely we see 6 or 7 pts from DET here and saying Lions 10 is a stretch cause only Cincy in game 2 topped 9 points on this Bears defense. Now I really did like Lions at first but this line I believe was setup from the get go to get you off CHI. You look at DET away last year 13 pts (4x) , 14 pts , 6 pts and 7 pts excluding the finale taht saw tehm score 21. We hear about Martz and such but hey new QB and new system its still game 2...adjustment period. So lets say Det was good for about 13 on the road and Chi good for allowing 6 at home , splt that in two and say Lions get 3Fg's here even 10....you dont think CHI gets 20 here?? I do!! Look at DET preseason offense as well . Also I would say that Chicago is very close to Seattle. Obviously the difference in offense but on a neutral field it would probably be a 2 pt spread. Point is Seattle laying -6 @ DET translates to a DD spread if they hosted probably something in the neighborhood of 10 to 11 points ...so then doesnt -9 sound right where it should have been and not inflated? I think so.....Chi only -7.5 at home after DET was +6 at home vs Seattle!! Doesnt make sense

Play - Bears -9 +110(3units) .& -6.5 -110 (3units)


Hou @ Indy -13.5 /47

Call me Mr. Contrarian here. Last yr in Indy the Texans caught 18 pts and gave teh Colts a game. They didnt have Dom Davis and the trio Of Lundy , Dayne and Gado is probably an upgrade. The Colts had Edge and Stokley who played huge roles in the game and offense. call me nuts but I think a great sandwich spot for Houston after the Manning Bowl and with Jags on deck. Yes, the Colts should pass on Houston but can they run on them? can they stop Houston's offense look at how many yards NY had. Granted NYG was home and a top offense but they shredded the Colts. This is a different Texans team despite last weeks result. The 1st meeting in Houston last year Hous didnt have Andre Johnson now they have him healthy and Moulds! really curious to see what the loss of Edge means in this matchup as his numbers were huge.

Play;
Texans +14 -105 (3units)

Suprising move from opening at 14 down to 12.5 with al Indy money. I said before I think Hous tries to chw up clock and while the Hou OL isnt much Carr can make plays with his legs and arm now that he has 2 WR's. Indy couldnt defend the run at all but there pass defense wasnt so hot either...wish I had more at +14.

WOW! Down to 11.5!!

New Orleans @ GB

Not going to BS here its absurd that the Saints are road chalk in a place where they lost 52 -3 last year. Chicago didntget much on tehground vs GB and typically the packers are tough to run on in Lambeau . Which is a huge difference from the Browns who have struggled stopping the run. People are going to say the Sainst passing game is much better then Chicago's but is it? Brees new QB off shoulder inury and Horn aging , off an injury. No clear #2 WR or TE. Colston has talent but its 1 game folks. NO's has more potential possibly but I actually dont see a clearly better attack then CHI with Grossman who I believe is 3-0 in Lambeau and wasnt that Lovie's mission.....beat the Packers!

Some nice trends with GB off a shutout as most teams bounce back , Saints have never won 2 straight to start a season on the road and the emotional RETURN to the SUPERDOME on deck next week.

Play: Packers +2 -101 (10units)& ML +118 (3units)

TB @ ATL -5.5 /36

Again no BS. I think people writing off TB are simply focused to heavily on week 1. TB has won 3 straight in the series and gives ATL hell. Abraham probably will miss and he created a ton of havoc last week, so huge loss IMO. Patrick Kerney was also injured and Hartwell is already OUT. Oh yeah that impressive win didnt feature Steve Smith and had other Car injuries. I saw TB struggle on offense all preseason but TB has scored at least 27 past 3 vs ATL( also in 7 of past 8 meetings). I think Cadillac is licking his chops 50c 266yds last year the OL shuffle is concerning though. its amazing how Michael Vick can go 10/22 for 140 yards and suddenly be hailed as the savior...wasnt it the same boxscore we see every week. The Buc defense was decent against the run as Jamal Lewis had a 27 yard burst but just 51 yds on the other 17 carries. So I dont see a repeat of ATLs running performance either

We have the whole shutout trend and Chucky sure was pissed with TBs performance!

Play :
TB +6 -115 (7units) Lean over 35(think 20-17)

I am nervous alot of TB money is coming in to my suprise and took ATL -4 as a 2Unit hedge. Also played the over 35 -109 (3units)

NYG @ Philly -3/ 42

New York showed some serious offense prowess and some serious holes in the secondary. McNabb looked sharp in game 1 and all preseason. Stallworth was a monster in the opener and strong against NY in that fake Saints home game after Katrina at the Meadowlands in weeek 3 last year. The Eagles defense looked solid all summer but Lito Shepard missing here really weakens it and you can see how they played w/o him last 6 in 2005. McNabb has won 7 straight vs NYG and the Gianst have had trouble in Philly.

Despite strong UNDER trends I think both teams top 20 points. NY had 5 of 7 road games see at least 45 exceptions Dallas and SF.

Play :
Eagles -2.5 -110 (7units) & Over 42 -105 (6units)

Westbrook is in so bumped each slightily. Like that Philly is small 'unpopular' home fav.

Oakland @ Balt -13 /33.5

This game is giving me headache's! This line is insane but most people think the points are to high. So did linesmakers do there job and get you to change your mind cause of the points?? Even before the shutout loss OAK was set to be 8 point dogs so that pitifil MNF performance has tacked on 3 or 4 pts here. My problem is I have played the bounce back situation a few times here and worry that OAK has to many factors against them. First Gallery is OUT and he looked crappy , can the backup with 1 career start be better or logically worse? , Porter is a cancer and will sit out again (I think) , Moss is not endorsing Brooks and I dont think they have any relationship- not good when your star WR and WB dont see eye to eye , Ashamouga is Questionable @ CB , Brooks knee is banged up and imagine the youngster Walters having to play @ Baltimore- not fair! , oh the 1 PM start cross country after a Monday nite game! I think this could be a 24 -10 game as Oakland looked awful after the WASH game mid year last season and hasnt seen improvement since. What kills me is thought Oakland looked solid in th 1st 3 games of the preseason till they didnt show up when they rested everyone in the finale.

back and forth, back and forth I go. Bottomline is I dont know what to expect from Oakland here. I do the ravens offense after the opening drive didnt do very much and probably only started moving the ball cause TB defense was dead tired. Think TB had a run of like 6 possessions where they held the ball for 2 minutes or less. Lewis had 1 big run and only avg 3yds per carry without that 20 something yarder. McNair started the season just like the preseaon on a long drive that ended on a TD. Thing is the preseason after that he somewhat struggle do we see that pattern again?? Just to many points and I am sorry but its Joe Pub driving this price up and no one else? Where would play Baltimore?? my guess is probably at -8 or -9 but not higher. Also BALT of a win as DOG and a fav next week means fade. Then Oakland at its lowest point being shutout at home on MNF and Balt at a high shocking the betting world by winning @ TB and pitching a shutout. If you like oakland the over makes sense...your basically saying OAK scores at least 10 here...u can get OAK over 10.5 pts +110.

We didn't give our quarterback a chance," Shell said. "If you got breakdowns up and down the line of scrimmage, then you got problems. We have to go back and see what we can do scheme-wise to make sure we take care of some of those things as we move forward."



Play: Oakland +13 -113 (5units) & Over 33 -120 (2units)

Small drop to 12.5 and over to 34...nothing has changed.

STL @ SF +3 /43.5

Some will talk about how poorly the Arizona defense played but you have to be impressed regardless with what SF was able to do offense. Look at what Alex Smith or any SF QB looked like statistically on the road. With said you have to be somewhat impressed with STL defense. However I dont buy into them yet. First Denver was unsettled at RB and Plummer is known to fall to pieces on occassion. Then remember the historically problems this team has going from the DOME to grass...they have been a great fade in this spot for years now. STL won as SU as a DOG and is now road chalk...again nice fade spot. SF was able to defeat them twice last year which is great but trend wise its usally a position to play the revenge factor.

As bad as SF was last year they played solid fball athome... 3-5 SU and 2 of the losses wer by 2 and 3 pts to Seattle and Dallas , plus a TD loss to Zona....only NYG and Indy won easily at thats because tehy had above average defenses and high powered offenses. Persoonally what did the Rams offense show in game 1....great field position and no TDS's only 7 FG attempts! Yes, they did get 5 turnovers but in thered zone STL was 0-5 and 0-4 in goal to go. The Broncs did run well against the Rams and Gore looked good last week. Bulger was 18 of 34 for 210 and no TDS..only 4 receievers caught balls 2 wide outs and 2 RB's. They will have to play w/o Center McCollum on the road..

"That's a tough offensive line position to lose," Linehan said. "You worry about certain things like quarterback exchange."

They started 3 possessions in Denver territory and manged 6 points. They started at Denvers 3 lost 23 yards and missed the FG , started at DEN 34 went only 14 yads for 3 pts and then at Den 17 and managed just 6 yards and 3 pts again! Not impressive on offense. SF is nothing special on defense but after STL struggled to do I really want to play an over here? STL is on grass not turf and he SF defense only had 2 real bad games at home think Dal and STL in the opener...after that fairly solid I believe.

Play: San Fran +3.5 -120 (5units) & ML +146 (2units)

Arizona @ Seattle -7 /47

Not going to get crazy digging into this game. Yes , the Hawks offense looked out of sync butthey are home now and adding Branch to the mix. The Cardinal defense gave up a ton of yards to the 49ers in the new stadium. They havent had an answer to Shaun Alexander yet. You get a softer line on Seattle thanks to a crap week 1. Dont see why Seattle doesnt score in the thirties here, last year outside of the finale and the game @ SF the Cards allowed at least 28 pts in the 6 road games. We knew Seattle's defense flies under the radar and I think Zona is going to be tough to completely stop...so think 31-17 type game here. Leaning heavily towards the over but waiting to see if it moves down....393 yards at home to SF allowed...(thinking over 47-106 (3xx)

Play - Seattle -6.5 -120 (7units)
ADD- Over 47 -105 (4units)

Tenny @ SD -11.5 /38

Tough matchup. If Tenny has time and throws the ball like the 4th quarter vs NYJ they have a chance to cover. I would say SD strength is dfeinetly stopping the ground game and rushing the QB not defending the pass. Collins should be familiar with SD seeing them twice last season. If Collins get pressured he will force passes and throw picks..OL is key for Tenny. Like Tenny +11 here.

KC @ Denver -10.5/38

Missed this matchup yesterday but really think its similiar to the DET situation(talk about the defense but defenses tired when the offenses dont stay on the field). People think this team can score here and they wont. Huard did look good but it was garbage time at home vs an okay defense. The Bronco defense is so much tougher and prepared! High altitude inDenver is always tough. Bronco struggled on offense but they are home now..

Play - Denver -10 -110 (3units) have the under 40 as well but its 38 now and not sure if I would still play it.

Pats @ Jets +6 /37

Not sure what to make of this matchup besides defensive battle. NE missing WR's and dont see the offense improving here as Dillion hasnt done much @ the meadowlands. NY offense hasnt done much since the preseason but Pennington made some nice throws in Tenny. The difference here is we know Pennington canmake the throws but will the WR's be open vs a much better defense?? NE owns this series and NYJ outside of last year had scored 16 (2x) and 7 (2x) in the Pennington era. Plus NY will have to generate a run game to keep NE honest. Nugent struggling in the kicking game MIGHT make Mangini think twice about FGs from 43++ and deeper. Gostkowski has been impressive but a late start at the MEadowland will havethe swirling winds!
I will be at this game by the way!!!

Could there be a Branch hangover even though the saga is finally over ??

We just have to work hard to make sure this doesn't carry over to next week," said Brady, who completed only four passes to wide receivers. "It felt like we were always just out of sync."

Thinking NYJ or pass here....

Play: Under 37.5 -120 (4units)
Jets +6 -108 (3units)


Sunday Nite and Monday Nite to come....basically taking Wash small @ +7/+7.5 for 2 units.

TEASER-(6units)
Bears +3
Broncos -0.5
Panthers +12
Good Luck! Feel a good day !