Friday Baseball Thoughts & NCAAF

Day start:

Cubs +128(unit)

Just fading the slumping Reds offense as road chalk. As I mentioned yesterday the Reds dont hit much during the day and have lost something to the effect of 20 of the past 27 day starts. While the Cubbues have played well all year within the Central Division @ 38-38 considering there overall record. Who knows what to expect from Mateo other then he has a couple quality starts under his belt and a couple poor ones. Cubbies dont sport a great track record in day starts but do sport some nice indivual averages in day games. Might try taking the under here as well...


Result : Reds win 4-0...knew I should have played the under!(-1.00 unit)

Nationals -119 (7units)

First we have some trends -
Brewers 1-12 Last 13 at Nite
Brewers 2-11 Last 13 as Underdog
Brewers 1-9 L10 away and 9-22 since the Break away
Brewers 7-18 as Dog +100 to +125
Brewers 15-30 2nd H against teams with losing records

Nationals 6-3 last homestand and 16-9 since the Break at home

Basically I have researched and found out that of MILW 9 second Half wins on the road they had allowed 3 RUNS or less in 7 of those games. It's obvious MILW has slumped offensively but this also shows to what depth IMO. They basically need an extremely good pitching performance to win on the road...9 roads wins and 7 the opposition scored 3 or less!!

Ohka is one of the toughest SP IMO to get a handle on. You just never know what to expect from him. Well he is 2-2 away but Brerwers are 2-5 away when he starts. Whats interesting is both SP dont recieve much run support( thinking Under here). He started vs Wash (his former team) last year and pitched well. Only problem is the turnover is tremendous in the lienup as only Vidro and Scheinder played (3/7 3 RBI that day). So I looked closer at his road starts and they support the early information. Ohkas has 7 away start sbroken into his 2 wins , his 2 losses and his 3 No-decisions.

In his 2 wins he was execllent(@Cincy and @ NYM) 15 Inn 8 H 3R 2 ER 3 12K 1 Hr
In his 2 Losses he was poor 10 Inn 14H 10 R/ER 6 BB 4 K 4 hr
In his 3 ND's he was decent(but MILW lost all 3) 16 2/3 Inn 16 H 8 R / ER 6 BB 5 K 2 Hr.

As I said Milw seems to need strong pitching to win on the road and I feel this small glimpse backs up that arguement. Ohka was terrible last time out and knowing him he could bounce back here. However he has dropped his past 3 startt, past 3 road starts and MILW is 3-7 in his last 10.

Ortiz on the other hand is basically quality 65% and real shit the other 35%. He has for the most part pitched better at home. He was basically shelled in 2 home starts ( Atl , NYY) and solid or decent in teh other 12. Those 2 blastings he went 9 inn 20H 14 R /13ER 5BB-5K & 4 Hrs!! Take those out and at Home his numbers read 79 1/3 Inn 73 H 37 R / 34 ER 26 BB 50 K 7 Hrs in 12 starts.(3.86 ERA). Since July 1st at home (4-3) in 7 starts 45 2/3 Inn 44 H 23 R 21 ER 14 BB 28 K 6 Hr 4.14 ERA(3.07 w/o the ATL start) but ...that includes the ATL shelling and the other 6 starts he went at least 6 innings.

I think the UNDER might be a nice hedge but I am trying to get past the fact 5 of 6 Ortiz career went way OVER vs MIlW. To me that has more to do with hime being a rED for 4 of them and pitching at Cincy or Milw in most of those. Also Ohka last 3 starts have seen teh opposition score 10 runs each time....scary

HEDGE -Under 9 -104 (2units) NOW the Over 9 +117might play that and ride Wash. ( Und 9 -104 & Over 9 +117 middled)


Result- (-8.33 units) Brewers win 5-2 and I was fucking right again and lost! Milw needs a great pitching performance to win and the under was the correct hedge. The pain of being right and losing!

Looking at the Under 8.5 in Pitt and NYM. Basically cause Maholm is solid at home and as I mentioned the other nite Mets arent hitting well against LHP lately. maholm has 2 solid outings vs NY in 2006 and Pedro has 2 solid career starts sv pitt. The question is how healthy is Pedro and how sharp wiull he be....could also lead to a Pitt play. There is no way I see value in NYM.

Pitt +160 (unit) & Und 8.5 -130 (2units) against my best judgements

Result- Pitt win 5-3 (+3.6 units)

Braves +110 (5units) & Under 9 -109 (3units) & Under 9 +103 (2units)

If you take away the names of the SP and see Willis is 4-11 away with like 3 runs of support do you want to lay money with him here? Cormier has shown tremendous improvement in his past 3 starts while FLA's pen has shown no lead is safe with them. Willis started the season losing his first 6 road starts and then won 4 of 5 before losing the current 4 start streak. Willis has gone under 11 of 15 away and pitched real well last 2 starts In ATL and the braves are somewhat struggling vs LHP. Cormier last 3 starts span 20 innings 18 H 5 Er/R 3 BB 20 K 1 Hr. Impressive is that 2 of the 3 were away icluding a 3 run , 6 INN outing in Fla vs Willis. Last 2 starts have been 1 run in 7 inn. In 8 of th past 12 meetings this yr they have played UNDER.

Result- DUMB Fla wins 6-4 (lost -10.27units)

Depending On Clemens health I will look at Houston. Myers has some nice away numbers but realize that in 6 of his past 8 road starts have been average or worse( good @ SF and ChiC and thats it). Clemens has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 7 of 10( 2 and 3 in two others 9 of 10 3runs or less). He was solid @ philly before he left 5 Inn 1 hit 1 run and allowed something like 3 earned in 27 innings at home outside of the Cubs start.

Houston -124 (3units)

Pending!

Cards -105 (7units) NO PLAY - Wont touch. Pitchers tend to step when they get the last minute call and Hennessey has a good track record away.

The Cards even money at home? With Suppan who has a 2.90 ERA at home against Schimdt who is 4-7 away (SF 5-9) 3.65ERA. Schimdt has allowed 17 earned in 23 + innings spanning 4 starts and receives 3.43 run support away... Granted he has pitched well @ STL only 1 of those starts was @ Busch and in 04, 05 or 06...so old news IMO.

Suppans last 3 at home 22 INN 15 h and 3 ER!! He is 4-1 SU and 5-0 Under since the Break @ Home. Stl is 7-4 in his 11 2nd H starts despite making 6 of those away(remember how good his home splits are). The 2nd H 5-2 (7-4) in 11 starts 69.2Inn 66H 21R(4 Unearned last start) 16Er 6Hr 23BB 41K 2.07ERA .251BAA. Thinking Under 8.5 -104 as well

Thanks SF! For scratching Schidmt last second! Cost me 7 units!

DBacks -169 (3units) & -176 (2units) & Over 8.5 -110 (3units)

Think Col is 3-17 last 20 away and 7-25 since the break. Arizona only 16-15 at home since the break and 9-12 last 21 athome (4-3 this hstand). Webbs 9-1 (10-3 ) at home witha 2.60 ERA this season facing Kim who is 3-6 (5-7)with a 7.11 ERA. Arizona have hit Kim hard twice this year and Webb has been rock solid lately at home and is coming off1 hit shutout of StL. Despite 10 stars vs COL past few seasons onlyhave been home and despite splittng them he was good in both(15 Inn11 H 3ER in 2005). Webb is also 13-4 2.86 @ Nite. At home Webb has won 5 staright , lost 3 straight and won 5 staright (current). Thinikng OVER here 8.5

Looking at LAD who is 5-1 at home and 9-4 in the 2nd H vs LHP. Only scare part is they have struggled somewhat vs LHP losing 3 of 4 and struggling to hit Davis , Capuano and Glavine on recent trip. They smacked around Sean Marshall but blew a big lead. Wells just seems to not pitch that well on the road at this point is his career and Maddux has been solid athome this yr and as a LAD at home. Scare part is SD owns them going 11-1 this year but with LAD been extremely streaky they may have caught them at the right times. With the Over trends at Dodger Stadiumand against LHP thats what I am leaning towards.

The AL...

over 8.5 +110 Minny & Cleveland ( possible 2 or 3 units)

Guess what I am waiting for is to see if we get down to 8 here. Santana has been insane of late BUT I noticed he has some 'trouble" at the Jake in recent years. In his past 4 starts there he hasnt pitched past the 6th inning though he hasnt been at the Jake since 4/9( 10 runs in 22 1/3 inn past 4). Also I see before shutting down the Rays in TB( no major task theses days) he had a string of 6 road starts where he allowed at least 3 runs and never went more then 7 full. It was 3 runs (2er) @ Chi in 7 , 3runs in 7 @ Det, 4 runs in 6 @ KC , 3runs in 7 @ KC, 5 runs in 7 @ Tex, 5runs (4er) @ KC in 5 2/3. Thats 21 er(23r) in 39 2/3 innings and this is since 7/1 so all basically afterthe break. I mention that cause we know how awesome Johan is in the 2nd H every year.

Carmona just seems to be lost after losing the closers role and sent back to AAA to build up arm strength to start...the opposite of how the season started so he has been a yo-yo this year. He should get and at this point in Sept you could see a pitchre just getting a look as teams arent exactly playing to win. Same goes for Minny though a big lead could mean John is lifted early even if he is dominanting.

Basically my point is you can make a case that Cleveland WILL score 3 runs here maybe even 4. In that scenario especially with an 8 total you have to really LOVE the over thinking Minny will score at least 5 times tonite.

Over 8.5 -103 Minn & Cle (2units)

result - tied at 4 (+2.00 units)

Over 9 -109 DET & BALT (5units)

Well I was happy and suprised to see this move down from 9.5. After all Hayden penn has been BAD in his first 2 starts since being recalled. Truth is I dont know why such a quality prospect is struggling so mightily. I means 8 runs in the 1st and you dont get 3 outs then 7 rusn in 3 Innings of work vs NYY...even last year the road wa sstruggle...If I had to guess a decent outing would be in teh neighborhood of 3 runs in 5 innings. Then we get the O's pen which squandered last nites game in the mix.

Bonderman basically has 5 bad outings in a row now and really only 2 solid starts in his past 10. He hasnt pitched well at home(4.81 ERA) but has received hardly any run support 3.31 which combined witha great pen leads to his 9-4 UNDER mark at home. his last 5 he has allowed 6 (5er) , 4, 4, 4 (er in 4 innings and 7 (6er) with the longest outing being 6 1/3 innings. The earlier you exit the lesser quality reliever comes into the game. Bonderman tends to be extremely good or extremely bad and its been ahile since he was gone. He also has a rep as fading in the 2nd Half.

Result DET 16-3 ( +5.00 units) should have hammered it!

-Well my two cents on the Yanks- Sox is I dont see them playing as it rained for 2 days straight. Guess we get DH's on Sat and Sun. Yanks have smoked Beckett last two times out and NY is 9-1 past 10 vs Boston and w/o Manny is clearly the better team especially with Cy Wang on the hill. Johan deserves the CY but Wang is damn good.

-I would say if you feel Halladay is healthy and I dont think I want to gamble on his elbow stiffening up then -1.5 -125 looks decent. Think Seo is 2-10 as a SP in TB and I know TB has just 2 away wins since the break!!

Royals -104 (5units)

The Royals were a small dog yesterday so this line doesnt freak me. First SEA is 28-43 away compared to KC 33-41 @ home. KC 10-5 last 15 games which includes 6-2 both losses were Minny and Boston avoiding being swept!! They ae HOT plaian and simple.

Seattle trots out Francisco Cruceta who hasnt started since a brief spell in 2004. His AAA numbers were solid but not amazing by any stretch.

In KC we have Luke Hudson who if he didnt have that awful start at KC woukld be garnering more attention. I watched hiom vs NYY a week or so ago and he was damn solid. LAst 10 for him KC is 6-4 but that includes thegem they blew vs NYY(should easily be 7-3). Last 5 road starts he has quality starts and wins @ Fenway , Metrodome and Arlington. Last 5 @ Home were all quality and he is 3-2 as well. No worse then 3 runs in 6 innings. In 5 starts 32 1/3 innings 31 H 11 runs /11er 11BB 23K 3Hr(10K's vs NYY). He is 4-2 3.74 ERA @ Home in 6 starts. His st start at home he failed to go 6 innings but allowed just 1 run in 5 innings. So at hoem 4 wins , a 4-3 loss and the blwon game vs NYY which he was nasty. Somehow KC has like the 2n d most runs scored at home and home BAA...something along those lines. The start @ Cle is responsible for his ERA jumping 1.o5 points(4.20 instead). Also his ERA as a SP/o that start is 3.60 down from 4.86.

I think with th erecent coaches being fired Seattle could lose focus. Also there strength a strong PEN has taken some hits in recent weeks and isnt as strong.

Result - Pending blew 6-0 lead

Rangers +111 (3units)

The LAA bats are quieting down and Tejada has been solid in 4 of his last 5 starts . Only scare is the lone home start was his poor performance. Unnervin stat is Texas is 1-11 as a small home dog this year but generally they just havent played well at home PERIOD IMHO.

My reasoning is Weaver unhittable at home was nicked up in 6 innigs vs Texas allowing 8 hits and 3 runs( so the Texas lineup should be confident). Being this is in Texas the Rangers have the statistical edge in the pen 3.65 to 4.80(using home / away)

Weaver has allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of his past 5 away starts and in 5 of 9 starts in the 2nd Half. Might seem minor but he allowed 0,1,2 in his 1st 7 starts. You always wonder if he is tiring at this point in the year being he has little minor league experience. Basically if he allows 3 runsin 6 and the pen allows 1 or even 2 runs its hard to see LAA getting 5 when they have scored that many in any of the past 7 games and were almost no-hit before managing a 2 run HR yesterday.

Pending-

Under 9 +110 Oakland & ChiWsox(3units)

Would be an easy call if Loiaza hadnt been shelled last time out in TB. However he was on a 5 game roll which he allowed jsut 2 earned (3runs) in 38 2/3 Innings!!! Garland is a bit inconsistnet but has also been rolling.....6 of hsi past 10 starts he allowed 0 or 1 run. Those 6 starts spanned 44 innings and he allowed 3 earned (4runs). He has 2 other quality starts in that stretch 4runs in 8 and 3 runs in 6 inn. They Sox have 8 straight ROAD Unders and have scord 4 or less in 10 of 16 away. For Oakland 11 of the 12 games not hosting Texas have seen the opponnt fail to score 4 runs!

Result- Pending

Will finish up and finalize throughout the day!

NCAAF
Kansas +5 +100 (Now 5units) & Under 49 -102 (3units)

Both teams off poor performances and expecting defenses to lead the way 23-20.

Parlay (2units)
Nats -119 & Over 9 -103 Tigers( work in Mnny for a 3 tmer)

Last one-

Over 8.5 -113 LAD & SD (5units)