Monday MLB Thoughts & NFL

Well the past 2 days I have put minimal effort into capping baseball since I was overly focused on the football slates. Well that minimal effort turned out to be very solid as both days were slightly better then+10 units while the football days were my worst ever in the -30 unit range each day. What I learned this weekend is dont let to much shit get into your head. What I mean is I went against what I knew and sided with situational angles that seemed to be backed fading the public sentiment( which works in all forms of life). Which I know for sure sites that track this stuff give out WRONG INFO. I watched on sportsinsights.com the money flow before the game....and I know who was being bet...it was clearly Oakland ( 13 to 12.5 ), somewhat bias to Cleveland( Clev vig was negative) , The Lions heavy( remember I said Pinnacle sportsbook was taking sides and begging you to play DET @ +9 -131!!) , Texans fell to 11.5...Now I admit this curious since early it had alreday dropped to 13 then went 13 to 11.5 on Sunday. I cant say for sure if Hou was being taken Or the books simply moved it down tomake you think something was up and they do this! , Miami was heavily bet till the last seconds when someone hit Buffalo and the Under hard. I know cause within seconds the Miami total went from 37 U -108 to 37 U -119 and Miami started at 6 and hit 7 before a last sec drop to 6.5 ! The public was on NYG , Minny and KC so they got those , but was on STL in the afternoon , also GB went from +2 to +1 more importantly the ML finished at GB -108 from +113 on Sat nite , they were clearly on TB taking that down to 4.5 and just like Cle a small bias towards Tenny. So the public got smoked IMO.......oh yeah the public was on the jets as well

My point is I let many outside influences sway my decisions and thats MY FAULT! Back to the basics! I got greedy and paid with the profits I built up here! New day.....

MLB

ChiC @ Philly

Right now this is to high priced for me. The Cubbies have suddenly woken up last 2 but Marshall hast been very sharp in his 3 return outings. Not to mention Cubs 1-9 L 10 away. My belief is if you are laying HEAVY CHALK you should expect a domianting pitcher performance. right now I cant for sure w/o doubt taht I would expect Leiber to limit Chi to 3 runs or less over 9 innings.

Atl @ Wash

I have read somewhere about Armas lack of success against ATL. Which is obviously true but lets not forget that for years ATL was head and shoulders ABOVE Washington. Now the last 2 seasons and especially 2006 there isnt a significant gap bewteen the two. I say this cause Armas has 2 strong starts vs ATL this yr without allowing a run and was sharp in 3 of 4 vs them since 2005. So who cares that Armas is something like 0-9 at home vs ATL recently...its misleading cause the last 2 at home have been very solid ! Davies has been Bad since his DL return and I believe those were at home. Now he travels and historically that hasnt been good....all young SP usally have tremendous DIFFERENCE's inhome /away splits. One tyhing that concerns me about Armas is his recent lack of strikeouts....6 straight starts with2 or less. Pitchers tend to struggle when they cant K batters not matter how hard they throw. Thats why Chein Ming Wang is a FREAK of nature. He doesnt K anyone but throws a 95 MPH sinker!! Think Kevin Brown and Scott Erickson in there prime but better. Armas has only 1 bad 2nd H start at home allowing 11 earned in 29 /2/3 innings since teh break. However his last 6 starts have seen 25 2/3 Inn and 39 H 27 runs / 22earned . So thinking WASh but also over cause Armas recent struggles and Davies poor performsnces since returning from the DL.

Fla @ NYM

Neither SP pitching well but I like Traschel(19-9 when he starts) pitching for his spot in the rotation on extended rest. The NY offense was sleeping in Pitt but they faced LHP which is there achilles heel. moeheler is returning from a long DL stintand shown that he is a 5 innning SP right now. The Marlin pen is poison! Beautiful day here in NY so the over but me worth a luck since Traschel tends to get tremendous run support...only I am not a big fan of 9.5 totals at Shea.

StL @ Milw

Real simple here....Capuano despite dropping something like 8 of past 10 starts is usally a play for me at home. StL all season hasnt shown much against LHP 0-7 2nd H away vs LHP and the names arent studs........generally struggled away think 6-18 L 24 after starting 5-1 (loss to Francis) first 2 series after break. Reyes has been inconsistent and ahsnt pitched deep into games on the road plus MILW's bigbats Jenkins and Fielder are LHP.....still thinking U 8.5 though!

Houston / Cincy

Not sold yet but Oswalt at -218 vs the Reds looks enticing. First he is strongest in AUG & SEPT and facing the opponent he has had the most success against combined with a huge offensive slump by Cincy lately. Lohse is on the hill but after a great fresh start in Cincy teh clock might have struck midnite...Remember I look for strong SP performances when I lay big chalk....think I get iy here.

SFG @ Col

Well I am not sure of Lowry's health as he hasnt looked sharp lately...Coors isnt the place to be in that situation. Suddenly Coors is back to the over park again. SF has struggled against LHP and while Hampson is unknown he had decent AAA numbers and is LH. For that reason I am thinking COL here...obvious choice is SF needs to win but should they be favored away against a LHP even a rookie with an injured SP??? If we see 10 definite over play but considering 10.5

SD @ LAD

We have a line move here and I think its correct. This was a bad line when OPENED it should have been IMO PK -104. With SD dominace in the series and Peavy better numbers recently vs his opponent you would probably lean SD. So I do think this coudl be a sharp play on SD as the line was bad. Anything close to a PK -104 situatin and I will probably ride SD but I am liking the under 7.5 especaiily if we see 8.

NYY@ Tor

Rasner looks solid to date butthe inconsistent innings is always a concern. Ny in a terrific fade spot here after back to back DH's vs Boston and a night home game then flying to Tor. That has to be tough 148 games into the season..Burnett looking like himself lately and I think power pitchers tend to give our lineup trouble. We didnt hit much on the weekend...thinking Under 10 and hoping Tor drops so I can play them

Balt @ TB

First Balt has struggled on the road but they have there ace on the hill. At first it seemed like a big price to pay fro Bedard after all he was just -172 at home a few weeks back vs TB(against Hammel who is probably a notch below Corcoran). So I was thinking the should have been -135 to -140 range since TB sucks away and is decent at home. Then I see Corcoran ahs dropped 9 straight starts mostly cause of poor run support but he was blasted vs NYY..1/3 inn and 7 runs. He had gone under in 7 of 8 so he wasnt pitching that poorly. With TB you have to thrw out there road record as its 2-26 since the break. At home thinks it 16-16 and 4-5 last homestand with the younger lineup. Both these pens have stunk lately...Tough choice but Balt might be the right price now as its down to -140 but I cant take an under here unless the big gets cheaper. ould take the over 9 if that happened.

Seattle @ texas

With Felix he has struggled @ Arlington and the ranger bats have woken up past 2 games. Young King Felix hasnt pitched since last weekend against Texas in which teh Rangers avoided the sweep and won 4-2.Have to do more research into this price cause it seems a little high but I like Millwood and Texas here.....I think over time its a bad decision to play inflated favs. Not usre tahts the case here and why I need to research more.

Det @ Chi W

Really not touching a side as its a coin flip( was thinking DET). Do like teh under here as Kenny Rogers has 4 solid starts against CHI and Buerhle has been decent vs DET. Both lineuos do not hit al that well against LHP and have strong UNDER biased against LHP. So watching this 9.5 under vig closely before I jump in.

Cle @ Oak

With Westbrook generally pitching well away recently I like Cle here. More cause of the price. Haren had a great last start but was so-so before that. he is extremely tough at home though but not sure the price is accurate. Still thinking under but so-so strength

Thats my thoughst as of now be back around 6 to finalize my play list!

MLB Plays

Nationals -116 (4units)
Over 9.5 Was +103 (2units)

Brewers -111 (6units) Now +100 (2 units) more
Under 8.5 -103 (2units)

Astros -220 (3units)

Rockies -107 (3units)
Over 10.5 +103 SFG (3units)

Under 7.5 -102 LAD (2units)

BJays -125 (4units) - hate that fading NYY!
Under 10 +107 (2units)

Orioles -139 (2units)

Under 9.5 -115 DET (5units) now -112 (2units ) More

Rangers -132 (3units)
Over 9.5 +104 (3units)

Still looking at Oak and Cle.

Parlay +186 Cubs , Mets -173 , Hou -234

MLB Add-

SD -104 (3units) Remember this is the fair price in my opinion and we drifted lower as the nit eprogressed.

small parlay Indians +143 / Und 9 -108


NFL taking Pitt a matter of where and how much..fairly big though. GL

NFL

Steelers -2.5 -105 (7units)

Under 37.5 -125 (3units)

The scary part of the Steeler side for me is Big Ben's health anbd crispness having played just 4 series in the preseason. Thats why I tend to think Under here. Also not sure what Jax can do offesnively versus this Pitt squad...running will be tough can they throw on Pitt with such young WR's vs good corners?? Plus jax has some injuries on defense Hyaward OUT and Spicer <>