1Pm starts:

Colts -17 -102 (buy the hook to -16.5)(2.5x) Changed to (1x) with Vinateri OUT..

Clearly the concern here is how motivated Indy is? I think with a BYE WEEK undeck that certainly helps out. Especially since Indy is nicked up..Both teams weaknesses are stopping the run and neither can really take advantage of that Rhodes and Addai are better then Brown and White. In general the Colts defense has played well this year at HOME. Holding Jags to 14 and Texans to 24 which saw 3 4thquarter TDS in a blowout. The Texan offense appears light years ahead of Tenny though. You would expect Indy to put up 35 points and I dont see Tenny breaking 17.

Past 2 years the Colts were -12.5 and -15.5 vs Tenny at RCA. Same Colts squad while Tenny is falling...Givens OUT and Bennett Questionable leaving Young with few weapons...

Panthers -7.5 -101(buy to 6.5 )(8x)

Huge key the injury situation in Cleveland...there top 3 corners are not playing. There backup safety is OUTAnd FS Brian Russell is questionable. Even the offense is banged up with Winslow and Droughns being on the injury list.Now I hate laying wood with Carolina but they got backdoored last week versus a better Saints team(better then Cle). Here we get th same number basically and that has to present value. Remember that Cle hosted NO as small favs and lost SU. Remember that Cle was catching a TD 2 weeks ago at home vs Balt. Remember Browns have struggled vs the Run enter DeAngelo Willaims and DeShaun Foster...now there solid pass defense is iffy starting there 4th and 5th corners.

Over 23 -113 Carolina team (3x)

Dolphins +10 -110 (4x)

Had played this earlier in the week thinking Dante was starting. Truth is the books and I agree that it really doesnt matter that he isnt. If the boooks cared tehy would have adjusted the line...just like when the Mets inserted Maine for ElDuque..

Pats still have some issues and the Bengals were getting to much respect last week and NE not enough after losing at home to Denver on primetime. Public sees Miami off loss to Houston and NE off win @ cincy...Remember that Phins were only +1 in Pitt in week 1...Lets see how good that Miami run defense is..

Bears -9.5 -102 (2.5x)

Teams just do NOT score in Chicago...PERIOD!

Seattle 6 points , Lions 7 points...2 games 1 TD and 2 Fgs.

Last year ATL 3 , GB 7 , Car 3 , SF 9 , Balt 6 , Minny 3 , Det 6...the lone team cincy 24 in week 2..I worry about a flat performance here but thats about all...Bills will again struggle on offense and should score 10 points...can chi top 20...I think theyget 20-23 here...

Under 35 -110 Bears & Bills (3x)

Lions +6.5 -103 (3x) ( buy it 7.5)

Minnesota is a run first offense and the Lions have been solid vs the run its the pass defense that has killed them. Brad Johnson isnt my concen as he is steady but his WR's are a question? I dont see how I can expect Minnyto score enough to be a TD fav..DET offense appears to be improving every week and they narrowly missed a win in STL. Longwell battled strep throat this week and do yo want your best offensive weapon to be ill?

Bucs +6.5 -103(2.5x) (buy to 7.5)

First thing is the most impressive part about NO has been there defense. So I expect a low scoring game. Gradkowski appeared prepared to play in the preseason IMO. The Buc offense has just struggled since day one...I expect the NO offense which IMO has struggled to score against ATL and Carolina to probably not top 20 points. Buc off a BYE will be ready to play...will the OL though?

TB is 4-1 past 5 in NO with a 3 pt loss. Not overly concerned about the Bucs run defense since it kept Car & Balt in relatiev check.

Under 35 -110 (3x) thinking 17-14 game...

Still looking at the GB / StL game...My honest OPINION is that NYG is a SHARP play. There appears to be no reason why this line continues to run up. NYG is historically bad off a bye week and betting appears to be split fairly even...yet the game keeps moving..I am staying away.


NYG ML -245 (2x)

Teaser Indy -7 , Car +2.5 , Bears +0.5 (4x)

UNDER 553.5 -104 (2x) all games GL


4 PM EstArizona Cardinals +4 -110(5x) ML +175 (1x)Yes I do think that it is quite ridiculous how one game changed a world's opinion. I loved KC last week playing a SF team known to be outmatched when it travels. Especially sincnce KC is sound fundamentally , preached defense and the run....great spot at -7.Now they face a team who has repeatedly shot itself in the foot. Warner has cost them so much the past few weeks it is amazing..the amount of red zone turnovers they had. yes, the OL is pretty poor but Ross is a plus. Having a slow, lead footed QB like Warner made it worse IMO. I loved how Leinart played in preseason...remember he missed alot of camp and still shined IMO. The offense is loaded...KC relies on the run and ARI did a good job against STL and Stephen Jackson. The ARI defense is better then the scoreboard has shown....Remember that the KC OL is still a

SF -122(2x)Over 21 -114 SF team(2x)SF had not looked awful till they traveled to KC so I expect a bounce back effort vs the NFL's worst Raiders. Anyone know how OAK scored 21 last weeK? I sure dont...fumble recovery , 59 yard run ....

Dallas +1.5 +100 (4x)I did play this the other day and clearly expect them to win so -1 or ML doesnt change my opinion. Clearly Philly is not healthy and clearly the Eagles are over emphasizing this game putting to much significance on it.....its like what the Yankees do...I understand fully what TO did to that team but that team played on MNF and is banged up especially in the secondary...not good. Dallas is the best team in THE East top to bottom IMO....it will show today.

My feeling in NY / Jax is again we understimate the JETS simply cause Jags are banged up...Stroud OUT is huge!Nothing there yet.......



Over 7.5 +100 (6x) StL and SD
Over 4 -122 STL (4x)
Over 4 First 5 Inn +106 (1.5x)
First point of interest-

Last week Woody Williams traveled to StL and faced Cris Carpenter. The total was set @ 8 and we saw a 7-5 final. So we have had a low scoring series and the books have adjusted...thats when I pounce! Now understand the perfect situation when there is an adjustment is when the betting public is unaware and still is biased to the soft side...which would be under here. Right now some movement but net , net I think its gone from -105 to over -107 and alot of places in bewteen. So really NOT the perfect storm...

Second point of interest-

This is the third look at Carpenter they are getting in about 10 days. I full realize Carpenter is awesome but if the pitcher has the edge the first time you see him then its logical to think they lose some of that edge when you see them 3 x in a week or so. Also note Carpenter has labored in those starts thrwoing 13 1/3 inngs while throwing 227 pitches. Which is about 5.7 pitches per out...17 pitches an inning...maybe only 6 or so again tonite from Cris as good as the pen has been I 'll take my chances.

Third point of Interest - Woody Williams

Williams is 3-2 with a 5.50 ERA in seven career playoff outings. However, he's failed to get out of the third inning in his last two postseason starts, going 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA.

9/26/06@ STL7-5156/8W/O6.0753 242107 17.8 1.29
10/8/05STL4-7130/8L/O1.2655 22153 31.8 2.00
7/26/05STL2-4127/7.5L/U6.0944 11197 16.2 1.83

Last 3 starts vs STL notice one was in the playoffs last year.

Comments:
Williams pitched excellent ball in Sept. However I am concerned with his splits cause he has and 8-3 away record but nearly a 1.50 higher era. Batters hit 231 athome but 295 away. His last 5 have gone OVER on the road and he has received 39 runs of suppport in those. Despite Carpenter's 1.80 home ERA it rises to 3.50 in nite starts(whether home or away). He also was left out there along time in his last few starts as STL became desperate for wins.....It appears to be a nice nite for baseball and while these teams havent hit playing back to back games is helpful for the bats.

Any questions, concerns or comments ?..GL


NCAAF
Miami - Ohio +14 -105 (4x)team total 19.5 over -111 (1.5x)

Just think its fat spread. The Northern illinois offense is great but there defense is just lacking and the always seem to underacheive ( see Buffalo and Ohio)Miami-Ohio is a team that suffered tons of turnover from last year and expectations were just to high. They have IMO competed though. Scoreless @ the half vs Northwestern and didnt trail to a block punt, took Purdue to OT on the road. Lost a close game to Kent State but they were 14 point favs. Even the recent games @ Syracuse and @ Cincy didnt unravel till the 4th Q's and Kokal didnt play last week. Even if the Huskies get up there is a nice chance they get backdoored.Lets see...


NFL

Under 37.5 -120 (3x)

Parlay ML (2x) SD & Denver

Teaser SD , Denver and Under 47 SD(4x)