A decent Sunday in the NFL with some plays pending:
(never get my unit spacing correct)

Under 553.5 Salami (2x)
Parlay Den ML & SD ML (2x)
Teaser Den +4.5 , SD Und 47 and SD +6.5 (4x)

Sunday+7.30 units on sides and totals (Side note had a middle with Car +9 and Car -6.5, as well as Miami +10.5 had +10 posted so didnt count it)
+4.12 2nd Half plays
-4.80 Teasers

Baltimore @ Denver

First topic on this game is the line movement. It seems reasonable to think Denver is a 'SHARP' Play. All that should mean to the average bettor is guys who do this for a living see significant value in Denver. You should ask yourself why?? It doesnt mean anything more then that. A 'Sharp' is a Pro handicapper and last I check they lose wagers too and they bet thru the same sportsbooks as you and I. You can see the strange move quickly today from 4 to 4.5 to 5.5. Its strange mainly cause know matter where you look the prevailing IMO is Ravens plus the points.


So if the money is going on the Ravens why the move? Well if you read my Sunday thoughts I mentioned I thought the NYG were a Sharp play. For the same reasons. The spread looked right and was getting even action in theory. Then it started to run from 4.5 to 6 and people couldnt believe the value in the SKins. Well NY was recharged after a BYE WEEK and DEN is in the same situation. One difference is how they entered the BYE.

Lets look at the game -

The Ravens IMO are the most overrated GOOD team in the NFL. Why do I say that? Look at who they have played. The Bucs until today have been completely awful. Some might say NUT they came back versus Carolina. I will say Panthers gave them the opportunity by having 3 second half turnovers. While in theory the Raven offense has improved it really hasnt on the field and now they are missing a key OL.

Denver continues to be overlooked as a defensive juggernaut. This unit is every bit as good as Baltimore's without the names. They allowed 1 TD this season in the 4th Q of its last game. You can go to week 1 and see how they handed a solid Ram offense good field poistion time and time again yet the Rams always settled for 3! SIX TIMES! The completely shutdown the Pats on there homefield. Naturally NE is down some offensively but they did zip!

Baltimore has NOT shown the ability to consistently run the ball and Jamal Lewis is struggling again. It wont be any easier this week. Last week at home McNair managed 158 yards passing on 31 attempts! They scored there 1st TD thanks to a short field driving 22 yards. The 1st Half at home in 6 possessions they managed 25 yards of total offense!! Jamal Lewis had 15 carries for 34 yards. They had momentum for hanging around the game and the safety which led to a semi shortfield and game winning TD drive. Folks that was at home and now we are talking about the thin air and high altitude of Denver.

They previous week they squeaked out another WIN @ Cleveland. The Browns are a good BAD team meaning they actually complete but dont have much talent. They needed a INT in the end zone to keep them in the game and drove for the game winning FG. 15-14 on a 52 yd Stover FG!


In the 1st Q they started at Cle's 44 went 7 plays for 31 yards and kicked a FG. Again the defense gives them a shortfield and they still settle for 3 points. Againts a below average run defense Lewis managed 86 yards on 21 carries not bad but far from impressive...Jamal has been known to tear the Browns apart. Mcnair neededd 41 attempts to get 241 yards!! Thats less tehn 6 yds per attempt.For as much press as BALT D gets they allowed Frye to go 21 -33 for 298 with NO RUNNING GAME as Droughns was OUT. Starting a back named Jason Wright!! What will a balancedDen attack do??

The Oakland game is so telling IMO. They were given GREAT field posistion on 3 turnovers by OAK in the 1st Quarter and manged 3 FGS! They started at OAKs 32 ,29 and 35 and went 20 plays for 56 yards and 3 FGS!!! this is the Raider defense!! Look what SF did today to them.

They had 2 TDS in this game the first a drive right before half and the second near the end of the game with about 4 minutes left. In the 3Rd Q they started at OAK 32 and went backwards losing 5 yards and PUNTING!!!!!! they got the ball at OAK 15 and went 7 plays for 11 yards and a FG!!! In the 4thQ they started at Oak 43 and were picked off!!! thats 6 possesions beginning at least at OAKS 42 and only 4 FGS and 12points.....what more can they ask for? Start at the opponents 1 y line!

That day McNair managed 143 yards on 33 attempts against OAKLAND at home! Lewis had 19 carries for 70 yards with his backups picking up the slack. Against TB when they won 27-0 they had a 60 yard pick 6 and got FGS off two turnovers. They started at the TB 9 and went 4 plays for 7 yds and kicked a FG. They started at the TB 37 and went 7 plays and 13 yards and kick a FG! Another BLAH day for the offense Mcnair 181 and Lewis 78 yds. For the season they manage about 275 yards of offense.One thing is people dislike Plummer but he got comfortable vs NE and that should continue. He is usually good at protecting the ball when he isnt though he has multiple turnovers. I think the NE defense was a stiff test and he will protect the ball here again.

I dont expect the Ravens to top 14 points and probably wont top 10 if they dont get good field position. My main point is DENVERs defense is very good the Raven offense still has issues andit does not apear to me they can sustain long drives and dont have much big play ability. this makes scoring tough. Against NE we saw the Bronco offense evolve as Tatum Bell continued to his establish himself and Javon Walker reminded us whathe is capable off. I would say that the Raven defense playing in Denver is NOT as tough as the PATS defense in NE. Throw in the rested Broncos facing a Raven team that went war with SD and this could be tough.

Also note that while Balt won they were lucky to win vs SD for a variety of reasons. Remember that they opened as an UNDERDOG at home and closed at a PK. SD and Denver are basically the same type caliber teams IMO. So if SD was favored in Balt I would suspect Denver would have the same line....if it was even a PKem situation @ balt you would expect them to be at least -6 if they traveled to theer opponent.Again real simple why I felt we saw the line move was cause it was soft. Really it should have opened at -6 if you use the comparision of Denver being equal to SD. If SD is a PK(opened as road chalk)in Balt then SD would have been at least -6 if thegame was in SD. I say that thinking SD and Den are equal.

So if SD would be -6 then Denver should be -6.



A great reason to believe the BETTING PUBLIC is backing Baltimore is simply looking at SportsInteraction and BoDog. These 2 books are the 2 books that always jack up the lines and the favorites. No matter the sport you will always pay or lay more for the FAV at those books. So why are they the books with Denver -5 ? Easy! cause Balt is a PUBLIC DOG! That proves it to me.So I recomend DEN up to -6......Now I didnt speak much about Denver mainly cause I see teh ravens really struggling on offense. If a brown team can move
the ball I see no reason why they dont score 20 poiints here. GOOD LUCK!


Plays-
Denver -4-112(4x)
Denver -4 -120 (5x)
Denver -5 -105 (3x)

Under 14.5 -116 Ravens team (2x)

Loads of info on this game at CappingTheGame.com!