Wednesday Thoughts

First note is the Yankees suffered a tragic loss today when 34yr old pitcher Corey Lidle was flying his private plane and crashed into some NYC apts. He has been confirmed dead. Even more unfortunate is the Lidle's do have a 6 year old son.

Today Thoughts-

STL@ NYM

The weather is awful here in NY and I am not sure it will get better. I really didnt spend much time on this game for fear it could be canceled. Keep that in mind.

StL really slumped in the 2nd H vs LHP including losing all 9 road starts until they defeated Wells in SD. Weaver has been better away but you know he faces a stiff test in the LH heavy NYM lineup. Both SP 's made only 1 start vs the opposition this year. Glavine in StL and Weaver a few months back here at Shea.

For whatever erason the RH heavy StL lineup is slumping vs LHP and a guy like Edmonds usually tough on LH is at 157. StL does have some guys who hit well at Shea in Preston Wilson , Pujols and Rolen. As well as the heart of the order Rolen , Pujols and Encarnacion hit Glavine well. Tom is 13-3 in 16 starts with a sub 3 ERA. That alone makes it easy to like NY. However I am not convinced this line should be higher then -150. It seems with such even series fading any fav over 150 makes sense just on principle.

Delgado owns Weaver at 19 for 38 but Carlos had trouble at Shea this season hitting just 225. The erst of the NY lineup is 33 /128 with 6 hrs off Weaver..nothing overly impresssive.

For Glavine 3-4-5 in STL presents a problem as they are 41-109 with just 2 hrs. Throw in Belliard who is 5/12 and off a good series plus factor in Preston Wilson . Who is only 9 /44 against Glavine but 292 against LHP and a 313 career hitter with 13hrs in 46 games @ Shea. That sort of makes me feel 2-6 in STL will be a tough out tonite. That leaves Edmonds who no matter what his numbers say and 157 is bad , but he is always dangerous.

You cant say NY has a clear advantage in the pen until they get to the closer spot cause STL guys did an excellent job in the SD series when called upon. Though in theory NYs pen is better.

Bad weather hurts NY more cause losing Glavine cause of RAIN is more devasting then losing Weaver.

Small play :
cards +162 (3x)

Note on the total: IMO the weather favors the UNDER here. I havent made any decison on playing a total but looking at passing. I initially liked the under but then after looking at some numbers immediately thought the over looked attracted. After looking atthe whole picture I do lean Under...My biggest concen is how well Weaver would pitch and if he avoids Delgado he could give a 6 inning 3 run performance which I expect similiar from Glavine...

Oakland A's -103 (5x)

You look at Loaiza 's L5 at home and you walk away impressed. Since 8/13 he appears to be a different SP. Esteban was solid at home and even tossed in a few strong road starts though at times he still struggled away.

His last 5 at home 37 2/3Inn 26 H 7runs 6 Er 6BB 22 K 1 Hrs. Then you look and he always has pitched well vs DET in his WSox career except his last outing. Which was a sloppy game from the get go which featured 6 runs in the first along with 2 errors. If the lineup stays the same a few guys hit him well on Det Guillen 11/16 , Granderson 4/6( caution 6 abs!) , Pudge 8/21. Up the middle Nefi and Polanco are both 3-10. The other 4 bats are 7/ 53 Maggs , Inge , Monroe and Thames.

With Verlander just who is he? I mean when he takes the hill is the guy who was 13-4 with a 2.69 ERA entering August or the guy who struggled his last 10 starts of the reg season. Which pushed his ERA a full point higher. His velocity was fine against NY but he wasnt particulary impressive. How long can he go? Both teams dipped into the pen early as Robertson lasted 5 and Zito 3 2/3 innings.

His 11 starts including the postseason he last 61 1/3 innings. He allowed 83 Hits and had just 2 starts where he allowed less hits then innings(only 1 which was equal).He allowed 40 runs and 39 earned 9hrs 28bb -41K's. tahst a 5.71 ERA in those 11 starts he had a span where spun those good starts(of 4 starts) where he allowed 2 runs in 21 innings. So think how bad the other 8 really are..37 earned in 40 1/3 innings.

Another factor is his 3 starts vs OAK all real solid were pre August....so how do we weight them? He will face 5 LHB's and he allowed a 279BAA and 1.46 WHIP vs them. As well as having a 3.98 era at nite compared to below 3 in the day...a 5pm starts counts as what though?

Generally most of Loaiza's totals at home in the 2nd H were 9.5 so this seems low. They met in April it was 9 but a 4-3 outcome...so 9 would definetly make sense....8.5 seems somewhat low considering Verlander appears to be less then 100%. Most of his away totals were at lest 9 as well.As I mentioned earlier a TON of baserunners left on yesterday. I think back to back games are beneficial to the hitters as well as depleted pens . Remember Loaiza started tiring in the 5th last time althought his recent track record suggests 7 innings at home. Verlander only 4 of 11 did he complete 6 innings. My feeling is the line is where I thought it would be and basically where it should be....

Over 8.5 -120 Oak / Det (3x)

Was going to play OAK over 4 team but I missed the boat some as its now -134 was -116 earlier...still might though.

It will always be up before gametime....just understand it doesnt take 2 seconds to right this. GL