ALCS


Well as I mentioned for some reason I was having trouble looking at this game but I have spent a couple hours looking at it from every angle .

Some minor notes -
Tigers are 24-9 L33 opening game of a series
A's are 69 -26 @ Home vs LHP
The SP matchup-Nate Roberston (LHP)

Nate made his debut in the postseason pitching at the Stadium last week. One thing you have to keep in mind is the Yankees hit LHP much better at the Stadium so dont over emphasize the results. There is a clear difference bewteen NYY vs LHP home and away. Also Robertson has pitched fairly well in the past vs them.Before his last 2 outings (NYY and Tor) Robertson has been pitching solid baseball. He had 5 consecutive solid starts generally going 6 +innings and allowing 3 runs or less..it was 5straight and actually 9 of 10 so basically since August 1st. The prior 5 starts he had lasted 35 innings and allowed 7runs (6earned). He was extremely tough on LHB and Oak has a couple holding them a .178 BAA and has a 3.42 ERA at nite this season.


Tonites A's lineup is just 10 of 65 against him career with Swisher being 0-11 , Kendall 1-14 and Kotsay 0-7. Hurt is 3-10.Robertson was at his best away this season with a 3.90 road ERA. He was 6-6 but DET just 6-10 when he started but 10 of 16 went UNDER. Also of his last 10 away starts he saw 8 UNDERS. The pen pitched well in his starts as he allowed 4.06 runs whe started but remember his ERA was 3.90..also he got 4.25 run support away.

Barry Zito (LHP)
Barry doesnt have good numbers at home this year. Upon closer review its been a strange season for Barry at home. He got shelled vs NYY in the opener losing 15 -2. After that he bounced back with a decent 7 inning and 5 run performance. His next starts athome before the break were remarkable. Oak went just 4 -3 in those starst but he went 5-2 UNDER.In those 7 starts he went at least 7 innings everytime and the final three at least 8 innings. He went 52 2/3 Innings allwoing 11 runs and 9 earned* thast a sub 2ERA) . He allowed only 40 hits and 3 hrs with a 11-34 BB to K ratio. After the Break it was a diffeernt story until his final 2 home outings. in 8 second half starts the OVER was 7-0-1 in Zito's starts. His first 6 post Break starts NEVR saw him complete 7 inninsg and only versus that depleted Boston lineup did he allow less then 4 runs (only 1 vs Boston). His final 2 home games were better. He went 7 innings allowing 4 runs and 7 2/3 allowing 3 runs. Those first 6 post break starts he allowe 29 runs in 33 1/3 innings..plus the other stats arent very good( u get the point though). Factor in the final 2 where he allowed 7 in 14 2/3 innings he allowed 36 runs at home in 48 innings over 8 starts......not very good.

What I take from this is Zito was very much STREAK orientated at home this year...7 good followed by 6 poor and now 2 good. So despite the poor second Half splits I expect a better Zito like he has pitched in hsi past few outings..along the lines of 7 innings and 3 or 4runs.

Now looking at TRENDS really OAK has nothing decisive in terms of the total.

However all of DET's trends point towards an UNDER.
Total of 8 or 8.5 away 17-6 Under (27-15 under season)
Dog og less then 150 27-10 UNDER
Raod 46 -34 UNDER and Tuesday games 15-8 UNDER
Nite 57-42 UNDER
LHP 32-18 UNDER (34-20 SU)


oakland has 4 hitters with good splits vs LHP:
Kendall .331 but just 264 @ home (1-14 against Nate)payton 296 6hrs vs LHP and .304 @ HomeBradley 293 6hrs only 243 7hrs at home. Swisher 291 8 hrs only 235 at home and 0-11 against Nate. kotsay 265 vs LHP but 0-7 against Nate and 283 Home. Hurt .245 9hr vs LHP and 242 23 hr at home(good hr per ab ratio though)Scutaro .218 off LHP but 280 @ homeChavez .268 at home but 197 against LHP and was 1-30 in the postseason before the hR in Game #3


In the 2nd H OAK was 8-1 at home vs LHP and 5-3 OVER. However they didnt face many good teams starting LHP. In the 1st H they were 5-6 vs LH SP but dropped teh first 4 meaning 13-3 L16 at home vs LHP. Still the offense didnt hit much vs LHP..11 1st H games 8 were 4 runs or less the other 3 (5,7,9). The 2nd H they scored at least 5 runs in all 9 starts. Like I said it wasnt quality teams or SP.

DET also doesnt strong numbers vs LHP. One note is DET 49hrs off LHP and OAK 50Hrs. Zito pitched well in his lone performance vs DET in April. Outside of Polance and Pudge the DET lineup is 18-108 career off Zito!! Polanco and Pudge are 15-37 off Zito though and actually casey is 3-5 but I counted that in the 18-108...culprits there are Inge , Maggs, Monroe @ 8-68 plus Guillens 6-30...14 /98 is like 144 I think!The Tigers had only 3 bats above 290 vs LHP Pudge 340 , Maggs 294 and guillen 291 . Monroe is 271 but only 2 hrs. Granderson , Inge , Thames and Caseyrange from 216 to 256 with Polanco the other regular @ 272.

Now Barry gets 4.71 runs at home and allows 5 runs per in his start(well OAK does). Again remember his ERA is 4.71 so 5.00 overall is generally good.In 12 starts with more then 5 days restthis year Zito's ERA was 2.94 significantly better then his normal ERA. In 14 starts on more then 5 days rest Robertsons ERA was 3.86 ever so slightily higher. What I didnt like was teh difference in BAA..50 pts worse on extended rest.

Now the clock is ticking and i didnt get time to talk about this but as mentioned generally no matter how well OAK played late in the year they were still less tehn -140 favs at home against teams like Cleveland , WSox and LAA...even against TB they were 150-170 range. Factor in Roberston was favored @ Oak in July vs Blanton I think this line is FAT. most people dont realize the difference bewteen Blanton and Zito moneywise is apprx 30 cents...so worst case OAK should be -120 here

CONCLUSION:
Tigers +130 (7x)
Under 8.5 +114 (4x)GL ...sorry its late