NFL Sunday


Browns @ Rams :

Since the switch to Derek Anderson the Browns have been a different team especially on offense. The Rams have been a complete disaster mostly due to a ridiculous amount of injuries. Especially along the OL. I understand why we should be down on the Rams but this is not a road game and that's where the majority of awful performances have come versus quality teams and defenses( underachieving SEA included IMO). For the most part I don't see a team that has quit. Your OL will naturally play better at home even with inferior players. Now you get CLE who in 6 games has just 6 sacks. Last week a big problem was the play by the OL but SEA as we know is one of the toughest venues to play at. You have the return of Stephen Jackson which is obviously Huge! Though they should also have all there WR's as well with Bennett and Looker healthy. CLE has not proven able to stop the run. 72carries for 333yards in its two road games vs Oak and NE. I have to factor in how well they played vs ARI with Bulger and SJ out. They literally gave 3 TD's away that day and still lost by only 3. The 3 mistakes were the Edge James fumble into the end zone recovered by an OL , the pick 6 by Frerotte and the penalty that gave Warner one more play before halftime. Even with CLE's improvements I don't see them as road chalk cause they make alot of mistakes still and its not easy to overcome on the road usually. Wilkins troubling me with his kicking woes to date. Lewis is a game time decision and STL has shown some improvement slowing the run. Your gonna see alot of cappers taking the DOG cause its the sexy thing to do today to try and outsmart Vegas. In one of my pools with 50 people 62% are Cle FWIW....also in STL favor here is the recent return of both of there starting CBs.


Det @ Chi :

I feel like the Lions are in a similar position to STL except there home play has been very good compared to marginally good. Both have been scary bad on the road . The Lions have been atrocious on the road. Remember how Philly carved them up and how Wash put up 34 on them. Well don't forget how in the Opener they opened a huge lead only to watch OAK crawl into the game. There defense has been nearly non exist ant on the road. How bout QBs 74/95 for about 900 yards in 3 games with 92c for 383yds. Whole lotta plays run against the defense on the road..

Sure the Bears have issues on defense and in the running game. I simply couldn't back that DET defense on the road. You know CHI wants to avenge there sloppy loss @ DET a few weeks back. Just ask Tommy Harris. With such an odd number the backdoor will probably be wide open. There is no way in hell you can only make Chi -3 here , so that means even -4 is probably cheap still. On the flip Det +7 gets way to much Det money. So they seemed to split it the middle at -5.5. Personally just not liking Kitna's play lately and unsure of what to expect from Kevin Jones here. The injury list abit concerning for CHI. However Shaun Rogers may be banged up , a starting safety and CB are questionable for Det , and DE Edwards is doubtful. CHI leaky defense was decent last week. The issues are somewhat overblown cause it was 1 bad quarter @ Det , really just a bad 2nd H vs Dal that was worse then it looked , and AP had a helluva day. Kevin Jones and Co probably wont be drawing many AP comparisons. I see no value in DET but am weary still to back the Bears.....

Indy @ Carolina

Tough spot for the Colts here. Short week after a psychical MNF game in Jax with NE on deck. Not to mention Carolina rested off a BYE focused solely on this game especially being winless at home. Really how different is CAR then JAX? I dont want say this the wrong way but Jax really fucked up there first few drives with bad play calling. They should have some points on the board early before Garrard left. Why they decided to pass the ball so much I'll never know. With Testaverde you can expect a steady dose of runs . Indy is w/o Harrison and Keiaho now as well. Have to like this big HOME doggie...Panthers always attractive as a dog and see a 23-20 game...if Carolina sticks to it they can run and hopefully Vinny takes what the Cover 2 defense gives him. For me just a great spot for Carolina. Indy somewhat banged up on short week in look ahead spot after impressive MNF win. The line is inflated even with Vinny at the helm.




Giants @ Dolphins

Hard to figure how London figures into the equation to be honest. Think the crowd will be somewhat split . What I do know is the Miami defense keeps getting worse. Brandon Jacobs should be able to pound the ball with Zach Thomas out and the secondary has been soft and suffered more lossed versus NE. NY has to guard against a letdown and they managed that versus SF who has a decent defense but no offense. This Miami team is really bare with Brown and Chambers gone. That was there playmakers. I give Miami alot of credit cause they always play hard but now the losses are beyond ridiculous IMO...
10.1 YPA last 3 games.....hello Plax !!! The whole fatigue issue is a concern though...Sure its a big number on a neutral field but what does Miami have going for it ???? They were just catching 16 at home and getting crushed at half !!

Oakland @ Tenny

Okay so OAK cannot find ways to score vs good defenses and Tenny shuts down the run. Not an attractive number to lay but Oak doesn't win on the road often . The early start for OAK always a concern. Right now I just cant be excited for OAK to crack 14 points...Titan offense isn't much to speak off but they did explode last week....and may have found something in Chris Henry @ RB . Definitely a game not interested in playing but don't see OAk as attractive as many others. You know Tennys defense is tough (minus the 4th quarter last week) and we know Culpepper takes bad sacks and is prone to costly or timely mistakes. Seems like a bad recipe. It's all about the offense here for Tenny. They shutdown ATL last home game but did zip with the ball. With VY coming back maybe a 1st H under is attractive....


Philly @ Minny

Vikings way to dependent on AP for offense but the change to Holcomb should help. Personally while Minny has a sound defense they struggle versus the pass which Philly will look to do with LJ Smith healthy again. With Philly struggling for points and Philly playing fairly sound defense I'll settle for 20-17 here Eags...just think Minny lacks the offense firepower here.. especially since Philly can stop the run. I am hoping the total creeps up to 38 again ...

Pitt @ Cincy

Steelers have struggled on the road to date. I am sure some people are down on them after the DEN game but Cincys defense is still a mess. Even last year Pitt was -6 @ Cincy and I think this Steeler team is better and Cincy a step below..Pitt should just pound the ball opening up the game for Big Ben . Cincy just cant sit back and try to hit big plays...the Jets gave them that game last week....pound Willie Parker and Big Ben should feast....

Plays :
STL +3.5
Car +7.5

Philly ML

Lean:
NYG -9.5 (fatigue a concern with such a big number )
Bears -5.5 ( defensive injuries concern me)
Pitt -3.5 ( never a fan of road chalk)
Tenn -7 ( even with OAK as a solid dog and Tenny a poor fav)

Totals :
Not really interested in any yet......

Later games to come.......GL