4 PM starts :

Buffalo @ NYJ :

For me the value in Buffalo was the fact they played hard and were home dogs against teams that had poor offenses or were overvalued. Now the Jets have found ways to lose and have actually been a solid 1st H bet. They have to find a way to win a game and BUF is the answer IMO. The defense drops a few grades on the road while Edwards and the Offense still havent produced much especially last 2 games. So how can you expect to win if your defense is NOT a shutdown defense and your offense is small ball type even with Lee Evans?? Prefer the over here cause Jets should crack the 20's...Tends to be a home dominanted series..the Jets are clearly down but away from home I owuld suspect BUF is one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL...

Houston @ SD:

The whole situation in SD leads one to believe while SD wants to play great for the community they have been distracted all week. Both defenses weaknesses are the opponents strengths SD run vs Hos run defense and Hou pass offense vs SD pass defense. SCARY! So there should be points here but I hate the fact HOU is off a shootout type final score. Bottomline is SD to me hasnt played well in the games they were listed as big chalk. They are better but not where they should be.


Jax @ TB :

Dont see much value in this game at all. We all know the TB offense has been sluggish and they might not be able to run the ball at all here. Quinn Gray is a mystery. I know he isnt as bad as the MNF outing. The guy saw no xhibition playing time bewteen a family illness and the fact he was the third QB when the other were fighting for the #1 job. So I think his reps were limited. Jax can run the ball and TB can be soft vs the run. Gimme the points if I have to pick....


Saints @ SF :

Smith returns and that is an upgrade. The Niner defense has been real solid at home and NO offense isnt impressing me. Simply put I dont see the Saints having value as road chalk. SF getting healthy though DJ may miss they should find ways to score versus such a poor defense. Home doggie with a good defense....


Wash @ NE:

Few reasons to fade NE but the INDY game is next. Wash played a real vanilla offense last week so the GURU couldnt get a read on what the Skins will do. You can run a bit on NE and that is beneficial to Wash . The Skins have a pass defense unlike Dallas and Miami. The pats needed a frontdoor cover vs NE and I think Wash is just the same challenge. Hopefully we see +17 here but take the UNDER cause NE may keep it simple as well....


Plays :

Jets -2.5
Houston +9 try to get +10 or better
SF ML ( +3 if available)

Lean : Wash and Jax

Totals :
Under 48 NE

Lean : Over 45 SD

GL more to come tmrw..