NFL Notes: Week 9

Carolina @ Tenny :

Looking back at last week I regret my decision to take Carolina. Simply cause getting it at +8 or better really should have been what I was looking for( seems marginal but its not). First they were catching 5 or 6 at Arizona. Which clearly was an inflated line by a point or two but not much different then what Indy was laying. Definetly a different situation Home after a bye versus on the road. Just a different was the level of opponent though.

The key injuries seem to be who will starting at QB for Carolina? Is it the ageless wonder Vinny Testaverde who couldn't finish the game due to achilles issues or David Carr who is playing with a fracture in his back and feels about 80%. Scary though Carr at 80% when 100% wasn't comforting!! For Tenny the passing game gets a big boost from Brandon Jones who is set to return. From what I understand Tenny receivers dropped 3 possible TD passes this week!

Carolina is 4-0 on the road( and ATS) while Tenny is 0-2 ATS (2-0 SU ) as favs but were laying more then a TD both times. Panthers are also 24-9-2 ATS away last 35 road games. So they are ROAD warriors for sure and embrace the DOG role. Probably because there formula has been sound defense and running the ball. If they execute tough to get blown out that way. That's what makes Tenny such a quality dog as well. They have VY as well but Car counters with Steve Smith who can return a punt or make a 60 yd TD catch changing the game in a blink.

Now I feel the Indy - Car final is extremely misleading. The key play of the game was after a INDY fumble @ there own 28 Car had the ball deep in Colts territory leading 7-3 with about 7 minutes before half. They drive it inside the 10 and the play that changed the game was a Bethea INT. Worst case you get 3 make it 10-3 or you go up 14-3. Finally Indy gets it going late hitting some big pass plays which is something CAR suddenly couldnt defend and was abused from this drive on. The other key was Vinny Testaverde NOT coming out and playing the 2nd H. I wonder if this teams believes a helluva alot more in Testaverde then Carr? We know Steve Smith does. So does that mean it was deflating for CAR to see Carr trot out there?? I think its a possibility. Matt Moore stay loose!!

From that point on the passing game was on point and INDY scored 3 second H TDS while CAR fumbled away any late chances. They had the ball at the 20 late but it was already to late when they fumbled. Then again at the end of regulation. Was it a sign Carr could move the ball or just a part of being down 31-7 playing a relaxed defense?? Not having such a good passing attack should play into CAR's favor IMO.

This is somewhat of an even matchup if you believe Vinny is 100% on Sunday. Thats the problem with 40+ athletes , the ease which minor injuries creep up and then the inability to shake them. I think CAR has run the ball better but its probably EVEN in that category with White and Henry emerging. UPDATE: Henry tested postive for steroids in a supplement he took. I assume he is eligible to play but you always wonder if a coach will impose his own suspension. Now its been said LenDale White is banged up and Chris Brown has been out a while. Suddenly the TENNY ground game is a concern as well. Both teams are tough on the run and both stink vs the pass but I think CAR may be weaker. Since the BYE check the TENNY offense where is it? They couldnt score vs TB, ATL or Oakland. The Houston game was Kerry Collins! I dont like favs who cant score......dont know who is scoring here...

CAR QB very important.

Cincy @ Buffalo
Until the Bengals get some LBs healthy they simply cant stop the run. So defensively they are screwed with an average secondary. They over commit to the run and you open up the passing game. Pitt had absolutely no problem moving the ball. After the opening drive only a INT stopped them from scoring on every drive they had.

Losman is back IN and Edwards OUT. The positive in that is Losman's ability to throw the deep ball and relationship with Lee Evans. If they can pound the ball with Lynch and Co then that deep pass should be there a coule times. What Edwards did so well was get all the recievers involved and move the chains. Thats been a huge issue for Losman.

I think a key play in the Buff/Jet game was the Leon Washington fumble deep in BUFF territory late 2nd Quarter. That would have allowed NY to go into the locker room with a lead after outplaying the Bills in the 1st Half.

I think Buffalo is great at the bend dont break defense. With Losman in there could be more turnovers and big pasing plays. For that reason OVER 43 looks enticing. Now clearly we must keep an eye on the RB situation is Watson or Rudi okay ??? If not who the hell runs the ball??? I think for Buffalo to win they must score cause Cincy will....

Denver @ Detriot
Big issue for DEN is John Lynch's health as it appears they are okay at the RB spot with Selvin Young. A puzzling loss for DEN on Monday night for sure. DET pulled out a nice win @ CHI but it just seems that teams GIVE wins to DET. Could Griese throw any more costly picks ?? Da bers thrw 3 INTS inside the opponents 25 and missed a FG!

Calvin Johnson should play but hold out on that till later in the week.

TRENDS:
Lions 2-10 ATS after allowing less then 15 pts and Denver is 17-8-2 ATS after scoring less then 15 pts.


Can DET hit the big play like GB did versus Denvers gambling (arrogant) corners?? Calvin Johnson is a huge part of the answer IMO.

Maybe I am blind but I still think DEN is the better team. There will be alot of yards versus bend dont break defenses. I still think DET can be exposed bya good passing team is DEN that team?

Green Bay @ KC :
Still see GB as medicore but they have changed from finding ways to LOSE to finding ways to WIN. Here I think KC is a tough opponent. There defense is very sound most teams cant crack 20 on them . I though GB looked like it struggled covering the TE's versus DEN and you have TD Tony Gonzalez! LJ should find some running room as GB run defense isnt as stout on the road.

Should be interesting if we can get Kennison to return. I just thing KC is the better team and playing at a tough home venue. I wont expect Grant to run for 100 yards here. The world saw Brett Favre work his magic which tends to create misguided public opinion or value in fading them! Plus KC is off a BYE and GB played on MNF in high altitude!

Jax @ New Orleans :

The Jags sort of stole one @ TB. Right the Saints are clicking though and this is a much tougher task. TB has struggled since losing Luke Petigout and Cadillac. Saints are tough to run against , what has hurt them was pass coverage. We know with Quinn Gray at QB the passing game is limited. With Gray winning at TB there will be a false sense of security I think with Jax here. There defense is also so-so in pass coverage . Brees looks like he is in a groove carving up what was a solid SF defense. The Saints changed the WR starters and all responded. The depth is there.

We know the Jags Inked Grady Jackson. Well we now know that Marcus Stroud wiull be suspended 4 games by the league. So while not immediately a starter he should see significant time!! In the end losing Stroud is a step back..

SD @ Minnesota :

Possibly Bollinger here or back to Tavaris Jackson. SCary vs a tough defense but SD has some injury issues...Phillips , Williams and Jammer. Willaims expects to play here and Phillips although gametime call sounds like he will play.

Both teams tough to run on especially da Vikes. However lets be real its LT we are talking about. The old we dont expect to shut him down but only hope to contain logic applies here. I think Chambers just makes Gates so much tougher to defend( and even vice versa). We know Minny can be had in the passing game.

The only was they cover is limiting SD points and holding them to FGS. Which on the road could happen. I could see 21-17 but not 31 -27.....I think from getting +10 @ Dallas to a TD home is extreme. It's all about the offense...for the Vikes mainly!!

SF @ Atlanta :
Hot Topic : Just how healthy are Alex Smith , D.Jackson and Frank Gore?? We know Smith played in a ton of pain so what does a week do for him?? SF started 2-0 and outside of BALT have been beat up 4 of the 5 past 5 games? Why should it get better? ATL can play some defense. ATL at times moves the ball with Harrington..at least they have 2 RBS to use. Suddenly you have to question SFs defense , plus the travel factor playing at 1 PM , and ATL is off a BYE!!

SF 35 pts last 4 games but three were home! ATL played fairly well in its 2 home games before the MNF Giant disaster which could have been more competitive.

My main issue is I had ATL -1.5 here.....

Wash @ NYJ :

call me STUPID but would you really lay points on the road with Wash? They have lost Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot could be less then 100%. Basically that diminishes there strongest asset there pass defense. Now before I give Kellon Clemens any MVP awards didnt he do a solid job @ Balt in his 1st career start? So why look at all at his mop up duty rather look at what a week of pratice will do for him. Pennington has really hurt the Jets offense. Not that Clemens will make them a powerhouse but maybe he wont continually leave points off the boards or throw horrible INTS!! Just maybe they will be forced to pound the rock with Jones and Washington leaving Clemens the opportunity to hit some longer passes when they load the box. Just maybe!

Wash has been pretty shitty on offense past 2 weeks and suddenly they have regressed. NY defensively is very average but so is that Wash offense. So why cant they keep to 20 pts or less?? For me I think its the fact that outside of the opener they had a chance to win every game this season! They either blew a lead in the 4th or failed to make that 1 play to take it or tie it up !!! Coles took a nice shot and fall but no word on his status. I think he plays and love Brad Smith as well....

You can certainly throw on the JETS but can Wash throw it ??

Ari @ TB

The TB injury bug continues: Spires possible achilles issues , lost Torry Cox and with Brian Kelly ailing that makes them even more banged up up at corner especially versus 2 WR sets , Clayton OUT still for awhile and we know about previous injuries.

While the running game showed promise you have to realize that Gruden must be losing faith. He had Garcia wing it 41 times last week!! They are just 1-3 Last 4 games....Zona may get Dansby back and Gandy ...which you need all the help you can get protecting Warner.

I think Zona's defense has been respectable. With that I would rather trust ZONA to outscore TB.....Zona 4-0 as road doggie this year!