Last night got me back on track . My only mistakes and not just cause they were losses was playing the UND 5.5 @ Minnesota and Over 197(196.5) @ LAL. Now I almost got bailed out for a nice payout when the Kobe's stormed back and tied it @ 92. I would have expected OT to cash my over plays. So my mistake was playing the NHL total cause Minny had some scoring threats out. Well we know that players tend to step up in time of injuries and the logic is key players out scoring will decrease. I like to stay away from that thinking though and be contrarian. In LAL with Kobe less then 100% , Odom out and regardless of a new Houston outlook you still have Ming slowing down the pace. So parlaying it with UND DET and Over Port not so bad but a separate play was not so wise. Otherwise solid nite only wishing I had the SA / Port over for more.

Looking around this morning I found some interesting comments. They were written by Alex Roslin on the Seeking Alpha Blog. Just using this to illustrate how the world of trading is so similar to what has now become a SPORTS GAMBLING market. He was talking about his outlook on commodities ( spec gold and silver) and where he saw them going near term.

Both trades are based on fading the small traders in gold and silver, as reported in the free Commitments of Traders data issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. I've developed a system to trade opposite to the "dumb money" small traders when they hit specific extremes of bullishness and bearishness in their net futures and options positions. Last May, the gold small traders hit a bearish extreme that gave me a buy signal for XGD. And in July, the silver small traders followed suit with a similarly bearish position—giving me a buy for SLV.

So while I disagree with the common theory of fading the "public" in sports. Which every Tom , Dick and Harry is into these days. Cause I dont think they approach it the right way. I HAVE always believed in being contrarian to public thinking and logic. The difference is you can't look at betting %'s and get an accurate picture of public opinion. My opinions are developed differently. However you can get a pulse of how the public market which to me is non-pro gamblers and average sports fans feel about a game. Then decide if an incorrect market sentiment is creating a value opportunity.

So an example of fading the PUBLIC for me was taking LAL last nite. In my opinion public opinion had inflated the line and distorted the reality of the situation. That to me creates a value situation. To explain how LAL would keep up with Houston last nite I couldn't tell you pregame. However in the end I felt they would find away to lose by 3,4,5 points. Funny thing about these type situations is you rarely see the upset just the ATS situation. Just alot of backdoor covers...


Just thought he made some interesting comments that drew clear parallels. Nice work !