The amount of disgust from this SUNDAY will take along time to pass for me . Worked so hard all week to scrap together a nice week and then today happened. Went from 14-4 run to couldn't hit a damn thing in a blink! I can't remember being so off in any sport on any given day in my life. Everything that could go wrong did. Including not being able to play what I thought was the easiest play of the day...Will there be a run in the 1st Inning Bos/Col?? @ -110. Cook hadn't started in 2 months , supposedly got smacked around in his intersquad / tune up start the other day, and you had unproven Lester facing some quality bats vs COL. Of course my book takes props off the board about 5 -10 minutes before 1st pitch. Contemplating and procrastinating(cause I thought it was a no-brainer) how much I would hit it for I missed it. Just like everything today. Simply missed the ball....DISGUSTING!!!

No excuses but it seems every time I don't sleep well and look at the NFL for just one day I do poorly. It's over and done with now but my decisions sucked! I see this HERD mentality out there in that people look at every game as way to outsmart the books rather then getting down to handicapping the game. For sports books it's about beating YOU over the long haul. They are putting out lines not try to trick you but simply using the pulse of the public sector. For example everyone seemed to like STL because they were a DOG. However the key for me was the return home and of key offensive players. Regardless that was really about losing Stephen Jackson. SJ got hurt and Leonard failed in two attempts to convert 3rd and 1 then 4th and 1, including on the 16yd line late. I made the wrong play but I think its one of those rare times I lost and felt good about my decision. Though STL defense played worse then expected.



GB @ Denver :

Should be real interesting if Travis Henry doesn't play. Not cause he is playing so well just cause he is a proven running back. On a team missing stars Javon Walker , Rod Smith (hasn't played all year) , it's IRON MAN center Tom Nalen , even Mike Bell who has had a little success. Selvin Young should surprise here. Remember how Shanahan raved about him in the preseason. Just guessing that Champ doesn't play tmrw but hope I am mistaken. Dre Bly should be okay if he played last week with the same injury.

First thing is I don't see how the GB passing attack is better then Pitt's at this point. Big Ben has 13 TD's in 6 games and a 7.8 YPA. Favre has 9 TD's in 5 games and a 6.9 YPA. Now Favre does avg more yards but thats cause he is winging it 41 times per game compared to Ben's 32. So the chatter about the GB passing attack is BullShit. Look at the last 6 quarters of GB football what impresses you? The fact they collapsed vs Chi at home or needed a fumble recovery for a TD to win by 3 vs Wash at home?? Brett was 19 of 37 with 188 yards and 2 INTS vs Wash @ home. The 2nd Half vs Chi he had 79 yards and the team managed 73 yards net on 28plays. I believe that means he has 4 Ints vs NO TDs in that stretch. The DEN weakness has been slowing the run but they did a decent job vs Willie Parker and GBs guys are inconsistent at best. So in 6 quarters the great GB attack at home has ZERO TD passes.


There will be alot of chatter about the poor DEN home ATS record. Um does anyone realize it's because they had such a long of history of being a tough destination that when there play declined there lines really didn't. A comparable reference is Coors being an offensive haven but when it stop did you stop seeing double digit totals? No , the lines makers understand that with long term trends it takes awhile for the public to catch up. Now that everyone is aware of the trend to me the public has caught on. This will actually keep DEN lines soft in the short term. That's how the cycle works: over reliance on past level of play blinded people to actual level of play , when everyone catches on there bounce back tends to be in progress , in this you have a team playing over inflated lines and eventually fading on soft lines. We had the Plummer struggles and switch to Cutler did you see DEN as a home dog often?? This team was -3.5 vs Jax this season. Hopefully no one thinks GB is better then JAX.

You have the AFC vs NFC angle as well. All I see going for GB is the fact they are a BYE. Which in the past they have done well after some rest. However mostly tight games with Minny or Miami. However if you watched the DEN game last week did you see a smash mouth football game or an aerial attack by both?? I vote the latter. So not concerned about fatigue for them . Running passing routes all nite long with a thin WR corps could be an issue.

I think past history is all that is keeping this total at 42.5 / 43. Where are the points coming from especially if Henry sits.....Even if he doesn't I like DENVER. However hoping that it takes the line down a few notches....

Denver and Lean on the UNDER.

GB was given a win by Philly when Favre had a 58 QB rating . In the 2nd H @ NY he caught fire producing 3 straight 100+ QB ratings. However we know Minny and SD have great run defenses coupled with less then effective pass defenses. His 83 QB rating vs CHI was due mainly to his 1st H play and then last game it was 43. Oh and his 3 good games 8 TDs and 1 INT compared to 1TD and 5 INTS in the rest.

All Jay Cutler did was drive his team 44 yards to set up the game winning FG last week. I can see the decline in GB 's play which is coupled with the decline in there lines. Only -3 vs Chi and Wash at home...I would guess DEN is better then both of those teams..... Really that is saying that the road teams are at least of equal if not better quality then GB....


Tidbits:
GB 0-5 in DEN
Lost only Favre game in '99 @ Denver
Favre 17-15 on MNF but 0-5 last 5
Den 10-3 Invesco on MNF