Saturday Thoughts
Maryland ML -114 (6x)-
Feel that WF has not been able to throw the ball on the road and with Harris now OUT that run game is extremely questionable. Maryland was great for a stretch at finding ways not to beat themselves then the BC game happen...2 fumbles for scoes in the 1st Q and they didnt have the firepower to comeback. Terps undefetaed at home and know how to win and play sound football. I see WF a team that has relied on defense and the running game...w/o a running game the defense might be the next to go...battle for the ACC Championship spot vs GT.
Missouri -7 -111(3x)-
Fading KU off the home win vs Kansas State. Missouri is desperate for a win here. Really like Mizzou here but KU is playing better lately and has played well in all road games. I do like the over and may add that( 51.5 +102 will wait till half).
Duke +7.5 -120 (4x) ML +228 (1x)-
Basically UNC has played 4 sound games lately but is still prone to turnovers at the wrong time. I cant say Duke has shown improvement but it also hasnt regressed. Its a huge rivalary game and UNC defeated rival NCST who is abysmal on the road and is now ROAD CHALK @ 2-9! Duke can throw the ball abit at home and thats UNC weakness IMO. UNC in 3 road ACC games scored 14 total points! An equally as bad Duke team gave a better UNC squad a scare last season at Chapel Hill so why not here??
UCF -2.5 -113 (5x) / UAB +4 (2x) Under 47 -110 (5x)-
We all know about the QB situation for UAB. I do caution in people assuming this kid cant play (Webb). He in mop up duty @ So Miss appeared to put up some numbers 8 /12 137 TD and 13c 33 yds...Kenny Smith still questionable for UCF. Like the fact UAb is basically reeling at this point and with both QB's out could just be thinking about the season ending..questioning there motivation not if they are quitting. You would think UCF would try its hardest to at elast end a disappointing season with a win. They have switched bewteen Moffet and Isreal lately and UAB can be thrown on. UCF defense has improved last 3 and that has been UABs strong suit. Both teams do have some injured players on defense but I am to lazy to cheeck there significance...hey I am being honest!
Ok State +6.5 -110 (5x ) ML +206 (1x)
waiting to see if we get 7 though- OU has to be applauded for overcoming injuries this season. I guess I would somehow compare to this to the TAMU game cause even though Ok St is a different team ...explosive offense , medicore defense I think they keep this rivalry game interesting. Losing your starting QB and two top RB s just has to catch up to you eventually. Ok State exploiting NEB makes me confident they keep this is a game...
SMU +100 (4x)-
Clement probably doesnt play and when healthy I thought these teams were fairly even. SMU better defense and Rice better offense but with backup QBs that advantage is negetated IMO....Rice got so many breaks to win last week vs ECU...
SoMiss -6.5 -111 (3x) lean Ov 48.5-108-
Marshall just hasnt done enough on the road to impress me here. SoMiss defense at home is stout allwoing apprzx270 yards and little on the ground. Marshall allows 400 yds per away and 4.3 YPC. Marshall had trouble @ SMU and ECU similiar teams IMO to this So Miss team which has defeated Houston and NCST at home. Also they won @ Marshall last year.
Florida State +10 -110 (5x) ML +290 (1/2x)-
this is play against FLA on the road with its leaky pass defense. It doesnt score much on the road and thats makes it poor road chalk 0-3 this year..Clearly FLA is the better team here but home field and rivalry hopefully aid the Seminoles
Utah +11 -110(5x) ML +350 (1x)-
BYU is on a roll but do they get complacent(sp?) after excepting a bowl bid?? The two UTES have had success agains them in the past (lame attempt at a My Cousin Vinny reference...) Revenge could be a concern but Utah has won 4 straight in the series so thats really a stretch IMO. Also Ratliff had 4 TDs on the road in that one. Also Utah has be tough at home except the Boise State egg. I take something out of the fact they were actally favored by 5 and favored over TCU at home ( they won)...live dog here. Just who has BYU beaten anyway...I loved them @ TCU cause +7 was to many but against a similiar rated team they are now -10 in the same situation!!
Miss State +3 -108 (3x) ML +131 (1x)- Assuming Connor is the QB here and think State is the better team. Hoping Ole Miss is thinking about the one that got away...ASU +3.5 -110 (3x) ML +144 (1.5x)- Zona basically snuck up on everyone. I mean ASU was laying -2.5 to WSU while Zona was catching DD three straight weeks. Same type deal as Ore - Ore St. Some WR injuries I need to look at
Pitt +11 -105 (3x) Lean Under 59-
Think Lville has been inconsistent on the road. Pitt played for a half against WVU then diasappeared.Georgia -2.5 -105 (3x)- Have to think GT has the ACC Championship on its mind here even in such a big rivalry game. I am sure Ball doesnt want to never ebat GA though. Just gonna ride the home team...hoping the AUB win gives them some momentum...
UVA +17 -105 (5x) mL +620 (1/2x)-
Figured Ore was out and UVA continues to improve..(Lewis Q as well).hopefully they do better then FSU. Truth is VT isnt great as a big chalk see Kent State game....UVA has more to prove which makes them dangerous..confidence has to be high after defeating Miami...
South Carolina +5 -105 (5x) ML +194 (1x)Under 46.5 +111 waiting (3x)-
The magic number 5...cant be 3 cause then they load up Clemson, cant be 7 cause then its SC money...so smack in the middle. The Tigers have ben reeling forawhile now and SC has played its best ball on the road IMO...one FG , one XP away from being 4-0 and handing FLA a defeat. Now one has topped 17 on SC away and the Tiger Offense is struggling past 3 games
USC -7 -120 (7x) Under 57 -110 (2x)-
This is about the Trojan defense. All season ND has struggled to run and unbalanced attack just doesnt seem to have a hot. After all the years ofoffensive juggernauts @ USC its the time the DEF got their respect! Cal 9 points!!! Seems like the Ore St loss woke them up !! ND has played no one at all . People just remember last years game. While USC was better ND probably was playing better as well...it seems this game is getting steamed lately..thought it would have been at least -10..look what Mich did and they are similiar teams...
UTEP -12 -114 (3x)-
Cause Memphis stinks and people will think theyhung with Houston...
Over 74 -105 Hawaii (3x)Over 45.5 -120 Hawaii team (5x)-
Of all the Hawaii games this should be a shootout. Purdues comments about being disinterested scared me ...
Some more :
Under 55 -105 WVU (2x)
USF defense has been pretty good all year its abit banged up right now. However I was thinking that WVU would probably top out at 38 here. On offense Ponon is questionable at RB and the USF offense has been questionable most of the year on the road behind a young QB. See games @ Louisville , KU , and Cincy. All better defenses then WVU but could barely crack 7 in those games.
Over 39.5 -116 Tenny (4x)
Kentucky defense just allowed how many at home to who?? UL-Monroe ..40....31 @ Miss St and 49 @ LSU. The Vols offense is healthy again...
Over 21 -108 Cincy team (2x)
Like the New QB for Cincy and UConn defense as we know is young. We also know the Cincy D could be good for 6.
Over 28.5 +105 SoMiss (1x)Its Marshall's Defense..
Over 35.5 -108 UTEP (1x)Its Memphis defense....
Under 27 -131 VaTech (2x)UVA defense on the rise and VaTech dinged up on offense. Just 23 at home vs Kent St 2 weeks ago..
Under 24.5 -141 Notre Dame (1x)Cal just 9...hmmmmmnn...
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Thursday, November 23, 2006
NFL / CBB
Under 61 -119 WV 1st H (4x)
Its late .....
Det +3 -114 (8x) & ML +136 (2x)
Under 40.5-105 (3x)
Again I understand Miami is findings ways to win but road chalk? This team has won just 4 games and three came by FGs. The other in Chicago was as +13 pt dog and I dont think many expected that to happen or the 6 turnovers. In the following weeks we the betting public still did not believe in Miami. We didnt back them vs KC or Minny at home. However they managed 3 and 4 pt wins. I wouldnt say they beat there opponents as much as there opponents beat themselves. Just 1 offensive TD in both and trailed Minny early 4th quarter. Somehow they manged to get 2 turnovers near midfield and go the distance.
Previously the DEF had lost Keith Traylor with Big Daddy Dan Wilkinson stepping in. Now CB Will Allen is questionable and if you saw there nickel back play in New Jersey you would be concerned about that. Plus backup Traves Tillman is done for the the year and there depth is now an issu eon defense.
Then we have the Harrington factor. He admitted he was uncomfortable playing in DET as a Lion now imagine the difference! He clearly has motivation but I have to question his toughness . In fact this is the 1st time in his career he managed 3 consecutive wins in this case it was the defense that did so IMO...6 turnovers in CHI , holding KC to 10 points and 2 defensive 2nd H scores vs Minny. Now that defense is getting thin.Oh and Ronnie Brown is dealing with a sore groin manged 12 carries for 2 yards.
SO while the DET run defense wouldbe a concern that might be negetated if Ronnie is less then100% especially since there OL isnt exactly playing well. Now DET has a big injury on offense as Kevin Jones is OUT but Arlene Harris is very capable. The former Ram (remember Martz is the OC)is not well known but can do some things and Avion Cason will be in the mix. Clearly the offense goes on Kitna shoulders though now. Kitna has played well but killed himself with costly turnovers. The late fourth Q turnovers in Minny blowing a hug elead. Last week he they got te ball on Zonas 13 and he threw a pick taking points of the board. In the 2nd H alf they had only 3 possessions.They managed a long drive for a FG , a long drive that resulted in Hanson missing a makebale FG and a TD. They ran 37 plays for 201 yards!
basically DET made some mistakes on the road they couldnt afford. The int took off 3 or 7 points and the FG miss nother 3 they only lost by 7. The previous week Kitna was picked down 6 from SF 20 in the final minutes.. The week before they smoked ATL at home...
With the turnover in staff you cant think Harrington has any advantages in that way. Also the leader ( at least IMO ) of the defense All Pro Dre Bly spoke out last year as to how Harrington was killing them. With a new regime in DET I expect them to place alot of significance oon winning a national televised Thanksgiving day Game against a former QB.The Lions past 3 home games they have allowed 14-19 pts and dont see why that would change here . Especially since the crowd will try to make Harringtons comeback miserable.
Then factor ronnie Browns health? with the defense being banged up losing Wil ALlen is huge here as Goodman just didnt look good when the other CB got dinged up in NJ.While DET has ad a bad year one thing I see is every game they appear to be in position to do something to win a game. Finally here I think it worksout for them. The Vikes are in freefall and the last line showed Miami and Minny were basically equal. When Minny was playing well they were probably 3.5 pts stronger then DET. That means when Minny traveled to Det it would have been a PK. I think bewteenn Minny slide and loss of Rogers nd KJ for DET it still holds the same strength...So this line should be anywhere from PK to -1.5 nothing more. Remember ATL flying high coming into DET and what happened?
Mike Williams is active and he will either be useless or use that chip on his shoulder to distinguish himself if given a chnace...only time will tell...I see DET winning SU on a late FG think Lions 18-17 but DET wins nonetheless.....cant believe that Miami is -6 on a neutral field versus DET.
Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving. Clearly we have 2 more games to speak about...Will say Dallas & TB is oneof those games I have flipped back and forth on. Right now riding Dallas. The short week is more damaging to TB and I think DAL is rejuvanated and looking to make a statement that they are for real. There D certainly is and if Bolden cant play corner tmrw...oh boy!! Hate this is TB 1st Turkey Day game but look at there road games...
The lat egame is TOUGH as hell but I think DEN should be favored so leaning that way & Under actually!
Have Dallas 11 -104 (5x) 2nd H ML -236 (3x) -4 -111(1x)
Under 39 -110 (1x)
Under 14.5 TB -120 team (2.5)
Denver +1 +113 (8x)Under 40 -110 (3x) ML -110 (2x) Den
One of the toughest games on the board. This opened at Den -3 but was quickly bet to -1 then IMO when TG was likely to play it flipped to +1. I could be wrong on that it just seemed that way. Now it seems IMO that Pinnacle has decided to take a side. I say that cause no book has this game @ -1 still and they do with high vig. This seems to be something they do. Remember last week how they left Buff at -1 -124 and DEN -1 -124 for along time when all other boooks moved to -2.5..I do
Besides that stuff. This game is walking a fine line. Is the fact DEN collapsed a positive or negative on Sunday??? No way to say for sure before kick..Lets rememebr they did led 24-7 and were keeping SDs offense in check. Is the fact Plummer could be benched a positive or neg? Does it inspire him? Personally I dont see Jake the Snake as the sole problem. We talked about the total lack of mental awareness on everyone involved on Sunday. Hopefully this inspired teh coaching staff just as much as the players. The games were Tatum Bell has played sparingly or not at all seems to be the ones they struggled in. This DEN team with Plummer still won at NE a and at Pitt rather convicingly. Tatum was not the featured back in week 1 and they lost @ STL , he played only a half versus Indy and guess what the lead at half , he didnt play vs SD , and played sparingly @ Oak. So while the other back have been capable they seem to be lacking something w/o Tatum...just got word Tatum is inactive though...it wil be Nash and M.Bell. Not a negative but the not positive I was looking for..
If KC came in playing well I would understand the excitement about Greens return but they havent played well past 2 weeks IMO. You could chalk up last week to Edwards deciding to just hand the ball off as Green was retro on that last drive. Still just 27 pts past 2 weeks. TG will play but can he 100% and he hasnt done much in this series anyway...Its all about LJ here. While he is a BEAST I was rather impressive with how they shutdown the NE duo earlier in the season. They also contained stud backs Willie Parker and Stephen Jackson on the road. Personally I believe DEN like NE has played better away this season. Is Plummer more relaxed away? Cant say ...This is Arrowhead though....Jake is 0-3 and Denver jsut 1-4 SU and a home owned series. However DEN has losses of 1 , 3 , and 4 in KC in those past 5..
So if LJ is the offense then the fact DEN allows 3.3 YPC on the ground away very promising for the defense. They have a shutdown corner in Champ and seem to have found a wayto keep TG from being a factor recently. TG just 11 for 115 past 4 games and only game with more then 50yds receiveing in past 9 meetings (73 yds). You have to still wonder about the KC OL which has not played well and a more mobile Huard aided the line.On paper it appears to me though it has struggled DEN can keep this up and down KC offense in check....they have only managed more the 17 pts in half there games this year...I cant be impressed with any of the KC home games defensively other then SF...what have they done really??I see a 20-17 Denver win here in what is always a battle. The Denver defense is the key and DEN has the FG kicking edge with Elam. The Broncos are down and being doubted and so is Jake this is the epitemy of buying LOW...
Also check the lasttime DENVER lost 2 straight games....hasnt happend thos year or last year. E
dwards migh tb efoolish enough to think a predicatble offense can get it done....
Under 61 -119 WV 1st H (4x)
Its late .....
Det +3 -114 (8x) & ML +136 (2x)
Under 40.5-105 (3x)
Again I understand Miami is findings ways to win but road chalk? This team has won just 4 games and three came by FGs. The other in Chicago was as +13 pt dog and I dont think many expected that to happen or the 6 turnovers. In the following weeks we the betting public still did not believe in Miami. We didnt back them vs KC or Minny at home. However they managed 3 and 4 pt wins. I wouldnt say they beat there opponents as much as there opponents beat themselves. Just 1 offensive TD in both and trailed Minny early 4th quarter. Somehow they manged to get 2 turnovers near midfield and go the distance.
Previously the DEF had lost Keith Traylor with Big Daddy Dan Wilkinson stepping in. Now CB Will Allen is questionable and if you saw there nickel back play in New Jersey you would be concerned about that. Plus backup Traves Tillman is done for the the year and there depth is now an issu eon defense.
Then we have the Harrington factor. He admitted he was uncomfortable playing in DET as a Lion now imagine the difference! He clearly has motivation but I have to question his toughness . In fact this is the 1st time in his career he managed 3 consecutive wins in this case it was the defense that did so IMO...6 turnovers in CHI , holding KC to 10 points and 2 defensive 2nd H scores vs Minny. Now that defense is getting thin.Oh and Ronnie Brown is dealing with a sore groin manged 12 carries for 2 yards.
SO while the DET run defense wouldbe a concern that might be negetated if Ronnie is less then100% especially since there OL isnt exactly playing well. Now DET has a big injury on offense as Kevin Jones is OUT but Arlene Harris is very capable. The former Ram (remember Martz is the OC)is not well known but can do some things and Avion Cason will be in the mix. Clearly the offense goes on Kitna shoulders though now. Kitna has played well but killed himself with costly turnovers. The late fourth Q turnovers in Minny blowing a hug elead. Last week he they got te ball on Zonas 13 and he threw a pick taking points of the board. In the 2nd H alf they had only 3 possessions.They managed a long drive for a FG , a long drive that resulted in Hanson missing a makebale FG and a TD. They ran 37 plays for 201 yards!
basically DET made some mistakes on the road they couldnt afford. The int took off 3 or 7 points and the FG miss nother 3 they only lost by 7. The previous week Kitna was picked down 6 from SF 20 in the final minutes.. The week before they smoked ATL at home...
With the turnover in staff you cant think Harrington has any advantages in that way. Also the leader ( at least IMO ) of the defense All Pro Dre Bly spoke out last year as to how Harrington was killing them. With a new regime in DET I expect them to place alot of significance oon winning a national televised Thanksgiving day Game against a former QB.The Lions past 3 home games they have allowed 14-19 pts and dont see why that would change here . Especially since the crowd will try to make Harringtons comeback miserable.
Then factor ronnie Browns health? with the defense being banged up losing Wil ALlen is huge here as Goodman just didnt look good when the other CB got dinged up in NJ.While DET has ad a bad year one thing I see is every game they appear to be in position to do something to win a game. Finally here I think it worksout for them. The Vikes are in freefall and the last line showed Miami and Minny were basically equal. When Minny was playing well they were probably 3.5 pts stronger then DET. That means when Minny traveled to Det it would have been a PK. I think bewteenn Minny slide and loss of Rogers nd KJ for DET it still holds the same strength...So this line should be anywhere from PK to -1.5 nothing more. Remember ATL flying high coming into DET and what happened?
Mike Williams is active and he will either be useless or use that chip on his shoulder to distinguish himself if given a chnace...only time will tell...I see DET winning SU on a late FG think Lions 18-17 but DET wins nonetheless.....cant believe that Miami is -6 on a neutral field versus DET.
Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving. Clearly we have 2 more games to speak about...Will say Dallas & TB is oneof those games I have flipped back and forth on. Right now riding Dallas. The short week is more damaging to TB and I think DAL is rejuvanated and looking to make a statement that they are for real. There D certainly is and if Bolden cant play corner tmrw...oh boy!! Hate this is TB 1st Turkey Day game but look at there road games...
The lat egame is TOUGH as hell but I think DEN should be favored so leaning that way & Under actually!
Have Dallas 11 -104 (5x) 2nd H ML -236 (3x) -4 -111(1x)
Under 39 -110 (1x)
Under 14.5 TB -120 team (2.5)
Denver +1 +113 (8x)Under 40 -110 (3x) ML -110 (2x) Den
One of the toughest games on the board. This opened at Den -3 but was quickly bet to -1 then IMO when TG was likely to play it flipped to +1. I could be wrong on that it just seemed that way. Now it seems IMO that Pinnacle has decided to take a side. I say that cause no book has this game @ -1 still and they do with high vig. This seems to be something they do. Remember last week how they left Buff at -1 -124 and DEN -1 -124 for along time when all other boooks moved to -2.5..I do
Besides that stuff. This game is walking a fine line. Is the fact DEN collapsed a positive or negative on Sunday??? No way to say for sure before kick..Lets rememebr they did led 24-7 and were keeping SDs offense in check. Is the fact Plummer could be benched a positive or neg? Does it inspire him? Personally I dont see Jake the Snake as the sole problem. We talked about the total lack of mental awareness on everyone involved on Sunday. Hopefully this inspired teh coaching staff just as much as the players. The games were Tatum Bell has played sparingly or not at all seems to be the ones they struggled in. This DEN team with Plummer still won at NE a and at Pitt rather convicingly. Tatum was not the featured back in week 1 and they lost @ STL , he played only a half versus Indy and guess what the lead at half , he didnt play vs SD , and played sparingly @ Oak. So while the other back have been capable they seem to be lacking something w/o Tatum...just got word Tatum is inactive though...it wil be Nash and M.Bell. Not a negative but the not positive I was looking for..
If KC came in playing well I would understand the excitement about Greens return but they havent played well past 2 weeks IMO. You could chalk up last week to Edwards deciding to just hand the ball off as Green was retro on that last drive. Still just 27 pts past 2 weeks. TG will play but can he 100% and he hasnt done much in this series anyway...Its all about LJ here. While he is a BEAST I was rather impressive with how they shutdown the NE duo earlier in the season. They also contained stud backs Willie Parker and Stephen Jackson on the road. Personally I believe DEN like NE has played better away this season. Is Plummer more relaxed away? Cant say ...This is Arrowhead though....Jake is 0-3 and Denver jsut 1-4 SU and a home owned series. However DEN has losses of 1 , 3 , and 4 in KC in those past 5..
So if LJ is the offense then the fact DEN allows 3.3 YPC on the ground away very promising for the defense. They have a shutdown corner in Champ and seem to have found a wayto keep TG from being a factor recently. TG just 11 for 115 past 4 games and only game with more then 50yds receiveing in past 9 meetings (73 yds). You have to still wonder about the KC OL which has not played well and a more mobile Huard aided the line.On paper it appears to me though it has struggled DEN can keep this up and down KC offense in check....they have only managed more the 17 pts in half there games this year...I cant be impressed with any of the KC home games defensively other then SF...what have they done really??I see a 20-17 Denver win here in what is always a battle. The Denver defense is the key and DEN has the FG kicking edge with Elam. The Broncos are down and being doubted and so is Jake this is the epitemy of buying LOW...
Also check the lasttime DENVER lost 2 straight games....hasnt happend thos year or last year. E
dwards migh tb efoolish enough to think a predicatble offense can get it done....
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
NBA & College Wednesday Thoughts
Plays -
Cavs -2 -106 (3x) & over 198.5 -110 (2) Middled ov198.5 -110 & Under 200.5 -110 (3x)
HUGE CONCERN IS THAT PINNY IS THE ONLY BOOK I SEE WITH -2 are they taking a position on CLE??
- After looking at this game very closely I cannot figure out a reason why Cavs would be only -2.5 here(think -4.5 was accurate). Think about SA was -7 in Tor but Cavs were just +5.5 in SA and won SU...also CLE was -5 in NYK!! I guess Larry Hughes could be a reason but a best I think he is worth 1 point in the spread. Raps have lost 6 or 7 straight now(win vs Philly) and coming back after a 5 game trip where the had lost the final 3 games SU but covered ATS . You could use the fact Cavs are 0-2 in back to backs BUT look at the situations they played in. First time they win @ SA for the 1st time in 4ever(like '88) and play @ Charlotte...emotional letdown...even in the NBA or lack of focus I would say. The next time they play Minny at home and travel to Wiz. Lebron has sucked in these 2 b to b games. However last year in 19 B to B's LeBron was at his best avg 33.6 ppg so rest IMO a non factor. Wash / Cle is now a great rivalry IMO after the playoffs last year. Close Wiz lost in the season opener was avenged by Arenas and his 45. Freaky stat cavs 8-1 as a fav SU while Raps are 0-6 SU as a dog( the Milw line though was -1 closed at +1 and they won so??). I think I jumped the gun on the total and maybe should middle / wash the whole thing out...Cavs only topped a 100 three times in 10 games and just once away(once above 102)..I have Cavs about 98-101 pts here says its 101-98 your barely getting close...so probably a complete wash just waiting...wouldnt be suprised to see 101 -95..
Indiana @ Orlando ...Over 190 -115 (8x) / Over 94 -124 (2x) 1st Half ML +270 (1x)
Someone please explain how this line is -7. I simply do not get it. Indy has won 7 of 10 with the Orl wins by 4 or less and Indy has won 5 of 6 in Orlando. Indy was just -5 at home by ORL won by 10 so how is this line moving 12 points? ...maybe I could see 8 possibly even 10 but WTF...I am totally lost as to why this line is where it is I could deal with -4 or -4.5 but -7 just seems like IND is a layup here..Magic were -7.5 to Char and -7 to Seattle in a game they won by 1...doesnt Indy qualify as a stronger team?? Is it Indys miracle 14-0 run to cover last nite??? Two down to the wire games with Milwaukee possibly?? For the total this is the lowest total since the opener at home for Orl. Indy has been in the 200's in all road games outside of Chicago. Both teams allow a high amount of FTs and both shot the three well and defend it poorly. Pacers avg 55 Fts(shot & allowed) and ORL 61... Pacers have had some trouble on the road losing badly @ CHI & Wash but those teams arent slightily better then ORL @ home IMO and the highest number was +6.5..
Charlotte ML +100 (7x) Over 198 -115 (3x) 2nd H +1.5 -115 (4x) ML +118 (2x)
Knight will probably not play here but Felton & Knight really both play the point. So Morrison probably slides to the two spot like he did when Felton was out and May plays the four. Boston has lost alot of size with injutries to Al Jefferson , Candy Man (Olawkandi) , Ratliff and now even Perkins is questionable. Right know I myself play alot a ton of basketball and run alot and I am battling plantar facitis and this shit hurts alot!! I struggle to walk on it most days. Anyway theats what Perkins is now dealing with. Then put Wally World and West on the injured list. I just think witrh Okefor playing like a beast CHAR continues its ATS run versus Boston. RThe Celts are HOT last 5 games but real tough spot here. The over is based on Char and Bos both putting others on teh FT line...Celts three away games have seen 85 FTS!!! Cautious though cause Knight is a playmaker and is oUT (probably)
Not mcuh to say other then I liked DET @ -6 but not touching it. Will play the under 188 -105 (3x). I said if it was 191 I would pound it. Really I wanted toplay the 1st H under but they shaded it so much cause of ATL propensity for slow starts it only 90 points..Basically I see DET winning SU and maxing at about 96 points...ATL depends heavily on the three ball for offense and DET should defend that well ask Korver...
Heat +10.5 -105 (3x) ML +600 (1/2x) 2nd H -110 ML SA (3x) correcting my mistake
Spurs own them but maybe with Dallas on deck and Heat off poor performance they overlook this matchup some...Spurs tend to struggle as home chalk especially DD chalk...Spurs still dont shot FTs well and allow opps to hit 42% from 3....that could be a huge plus if guys liek Walker and Williams are HOT or it could spell disaster...Spurs 7th game in 9 days and last year in this spot playing Miami w/o Shaq line was -8.5 (but they did cover). All signs actually point to an over but wait for a halftime play......
The 8 PM's on deck...
NCAAB -
Over 146 -109 Purdue (3x) / Under 75.5 -112 2nd H (3x)
UNC -8 -105 (3x)
Princeton +4 -105(3x) +162 ML (1x)
Under 154 -105 Kentucky (5x) & 1st H Under 72 +100 (2x)
-What I like here is first Memphis a poor FT shooting team who rely heavily on 3 pt shots and transition baskets. Not sure how much Kentucky Defense had to do with it but UCLA was 2-19 from 3( DePaul was 6-14 though). Both teams playing 3rd staright game you wonder about there legs some...my a general soreness they could not be used to playing with. On the flip Kentucky tends to play a slower pace avg only 100 shots ors taken per game... lean kentucky here cause I would guess that Memphi sis wondering about that collapse yesterday...does it cause a hangover or motivate here?? If I knew I would make a play...
Over 72 -105 Syracuse 1st Half (2x)
-Basically I would expect the Cuse to get 80-85 points here the key is how competitive a game UNCC makes. So far UNCC avsf 41 1st H points to 39 2nd H points...while Cuse defensive avg is less then 30 in 1st half I am hoping they find middle ground like 40-35. Both teams rely heavily on 3 pt shooting ...
Michigan 1st H -10.5 -108 (3x)
- Hopefully the Wolverines just play to there capabilities.. youngstown State isnt that bad but it appears to be struggling losing @ Duquesne although favored by 6
Georgetown -8 -108 (5x) 1st Half
- After a suprising loss I owuld expect Gtown to be focused here. The Stags have lost alot from previous teams and were no match in Gtown last season...
Under 126 -125 Georgetown (3x)
- It could be tough for the Stags to break 50 here..
Over 141 -112 Chaminade (3x)
- You can hear the complaints about the FOUL calls leading to a ton of FT's. Factored iwth the fcat Chaminade LOVES to hoist up threes...Oklahoma should be motivated since they are 0-3...
Plays -
Cavs -2 -106 (3x) & over 198.5 -110 (2) Middled ov198.5 -110 & Under 200.5 -110 (3x)
HUGE CONCERN IS THAT PINNY IS THE ONLY BOOK I SEE WITH -2 are they taking a position on CLE??
- After looking at this game very closely I cannot figure out a reason why Cavs would be only -2.5 here(think -4.5 was accurate). Think about SA was -7 in Tor but Cavs were just +5.5 in SA and won SU...also CLE was -5 in NYK!! I guess Larry Hughes could be a reason but a best I think he is worth 1 point in the spread. Raps have lost 6 or 7 straight now(win vs Philly) and coming back after a 5 game trip where the had lost the final 3 games SU but covered ATS . You could use the fact Cavs are 0-2 in back to backs BUT look at the situations they played in. First time they win @ SA for the 1st time in 4ever(like '88) and play @ Charlotte...emotional letdown...even in the NBA or lack of focus I would say. The next time they play Minny at home and travel to Wiz. Lebron has sucked in these 2 b to b games. However last year in 19 B to B's LeBron was at his best avg 33.6 ppg so rest IMO a non factor. Wash / Cle is now a great rivalry IMO after the playoffs last year. Close Wiz lost in the season opener was avenged by Arenas and his 45. Freaky stat cavs 8-1 as a fav SU while Raps are 0-6 SU as a dog( the Milw line though was -1 closed at +1 and they won so??). I think I jumped the gun on the total and maybe should middle / wash the whole thing out...Cavs only topped a 100 three times in 10 games and just once away(once above 102)..I have Cavs about 98-101 pts here says its 101-98 your barely getting close...so probably a complete wash just waiting...wouldnt be suprised to see 101 -95..
Indiana @ Orlando ...Over 190 -115 (8x) / Over 94 -124 (2x) 1st Half ML +270 (1x)
Someone please explain how this line is -7. I simply do not get it. Indy has won 7 of 10 with the Orl wins by 4 or less and Indy has won 5 of 6 in Orlando. Indy was just -5 at home by ORL won by 10 so how is this line moving 12 points? ...maybe I could see 8 possibly even 10 but WTF...I am totally lost as to why this line is where it is I could deal with -4 or -4.5 but -7 just seems like IND is a layup here..Magic were -7.5 to Char and -7 to Seattle in a game they won by 1...doesnt Indy qualify as a stronger team?? Is it Indys miracle 14-0 run to cover last nite??? Two down to the wire games with Milwaukee possibly?? For the total this is the lowest total since the opener at home for Orl. Indy has been in the 200's in all road games outside of Chicago. Both teams allow a high amount of FTs and both shot the three well and defend it poorly. Pacers avg 55 Fts(shot & allowed) and ORL 61... Pacers have had some trouble on the road losing badly @ CHI & Wash but those teams arent slightily better then ORL @ home IMO and the highest number was +6.5..
Charlotte ML +100 (7x) Over 198 -115 (3x) 2nd H +1.5 -115 (4x) ML +118 (2x)
Knight will probably not play here but Felton & Knight really both play the point. So Morrison probably slides to the two spot like he did when Felton was out and May plays the four. Boston has lost alot of size with injutries to Al Jefferson , Candy Man (Olawkandi) , Ratliff and now even Perkins is questionable. Right know I myself play alot a ton of basketball and run alot and I am battling plantar facitis and this shit hurts alot!! I struggle to walk on it most days. Anyway theats what Perkins is now dealing with. Then put Wally World and West on the injured list. I just think witrh Okefor playing like a beast CHAR continues its ATS run versus Boston. RThe Celts are HOT last 5 games but real tough spot here. The over is based on Char and Bos both putting others on teh FT line...Celts three away games have seen 85 FTS!!! Cautious though cause Knight is a playmaker and is oUT (probably)
Not mcuh to say other then I liked DET @ -6 but not touching it. Will play the under 188 -105 (3x). I said if it was 191 I would pound it. Really I wanted toplay the 1st H under but they shaded it so much cause of ATL propensity for slow starts it only 90 points..Basically I see DET winning SU and maxing at about 96 points...ATL depends heavily on the three ball for offense and DET should defend that well ask Korver...
Heat +10.5 -105 (3x) ML +600 (1/2x) 2nd H -110 ML SA (3x) correcting my mistake
Spurs own them but maybe with Dallas on deck and Heat off poor performance they overlook this matchup some...Spurs tend to struggle as home chalk especially DD chalk...Spurs still dont shot FTs well and allow opps to hit 42% from 3....that could be a huge plus if guys liek Walker and Williams are HOT or it could spell disaster...Spurs 7th game in 9 days and last year in this spot playing Miami w/o Shaq line was -8.5 (but they did cover). All signs actually point to an over but wait for a halftime play......
The 8 PM's on deck...
8Pm's
This card seems littered with attractive dogs. "BetCrimes' says the numbers dictate it could be time for a DOG run based on these spreads I think so but all the dog seems to be popular dogs...So honestly whothe fuck knows...
76ers +8 -110 (3x)
Hornets +9.5 -110 (3x) 1st H +4.5 -101 (1x) ML +230 1st H (1x)
Wolves -5 -104 (3x)
Simply dont like these numbers. with half of Philly injured who knwos what there lines should be. However I do think they held up fairly well till the end vs DET. One key was korver not shooting well at all against MILW that should change since there perimeter defense isnt as strong as DET. Wille Green stepped up like I thought but Dalembert was in foul trouble early....Steven Hunter please play!! bucks arent exactly with injuries and off huge collapse last nite...do they just move on here...guess we shall see. I think Philly knowing ahed of time AI is OUT might better mentally prepare them tonite...the weapons are in place the key is to keep Redd from going off...
With Minny they are inconsistent as hell but so is NY who has played much better away this year. I just think you hav eto be careful with NY and short prices. Yes, Minny lost a close with NO but that was also there softest number -3 and Twolves beat up on Sac and Port at home...Orl as 5 pt dogs cruised vs Minny..Who knows what Starbury does after the benching in the place were it all began against his enemy or friend KG...Lots of question marks but I guess if I dont see NY winning SU then 5 is not a fat lineIMO...
With NO they could be thin due to injury and that might be tough against the run and gun Suns....I just cant help but back a NO team 4-0 SU w/o West... Paul and Peja playing well..Suns still struggling IMO..
Wizards +7 -105 (5x) ML +265 (1x)
Call it a leap of faith but the WIZ are in a good spot here IMO. Houston seems to always allow teams back in the game in the 4th quarter. For as bad as Wash played in the 2nd H yesterday they played a better team IMO . Now they get a chance at redemption with some xtra value added in. If anything Wiz should have been +7 last nite and +5 here. Wiz played tough in the 1st 2 road losses @ Cle and @ Orl but have since soured. Failing as road chalk in NYK and losing as dogs in DET and DAL not exactly easily places to win while Hous 0-3 ATS as a fav....this is the biggest number Was has seen on the road...
Warriors -2 -114 (7x)
Played this early morning but GS went toe toe with Suns even without Davis so I am not concerned about his loss. Denver is riddled with injuries and last nite the bench went 7 /22 and 1/4Fts as Boykins missed the game. There 3 main stars all logged 40 minutes and this is a B to B situation which I do see value in the home squad. Nuggets only won by 4 behind a career nite from JR Smith. Denver has done its winning vs the EAST.....
Utah @ Sac is a pass just seems like a bad spot for Utah but they look so interesting plus those points..Still looking at the last 2 games...like both home teams though
Have to play the Kings -4.5 -106 (3x) due to the shady line theory
middling NJ -3 -108 with Port +4.5 -110 (5x) BUTSwitching to the Darkside and rididng Port +4 +100 (4x) ML +165 (2.x)
Basically I just think this line started FAT and got PHATTA ... probably should be more like NJ -1.5. The Nets in recent seasons have not been favored in Port and have lost 3 straight years out there. Vince has led them team recently and I ownder if martell Websters length gives him a problem. Right now NJ in the middle of a brutal schedule as well. Revenge sounds great in theory but if your playing bad lines it wont matter like in SEA on Monday...Nj was -3 at home Vs SEA and lost how can they be just +3 in Sea?? Public bit and Sonics came alive in the fourth Q . Now Blazers +9 / +10 in NJ and win SU conicingly and catch +4 at home....explain that? The pub still backing NJ though seeing value....I clearly dont. Portland has defended there home court winning the 1st three SU vs Minny , NO and LAL, they lost by 7 catching 7 to Dallas and ctaching 6 versus SA fell apart late after elading by 10 with 18 minutes left....They are tough at home and I see that continuing cause NJ simply not playing well now...I mean SA and DAL were 6 now NJ a mid tier East team is just -4....nope!! Bad line....RJ is back though so maybe I should adjust for that?? I flip flopped positions here so who knows maybe I over thought it will know at 1 AM.....
NCAAB -
Over 146 -109 Purdue (3x) / Under 75.5 -112 2nd H (3x)
UNC -8 -105 (3x)
Princeton +4 -105(3x) +162 ML (1x)
Under 154 -105 Kentucky (5x) & 1st H Under 72 +100 (2x)
-What I like here is first Memphis a poor FT shooting team who rely heavily on 3 pt shots and transition baskets. Not sure how much Kentucky Defense had to do with it but UCLA was 2-19 from 3( DePaul was 6-14 though). Both teams playing 3rd staright game you wonder about there legs some...my a general soreness they could not be used to playing with. On the flip Kentucky tends to play a slower pace avg only 100 shots ors taken per game... lean kentucky here cause I would guess that Memphi sis wondering about that collapse yesterday...does it cause a hangover or motivate here?? If I knew I would make a play...
Over 72 -105 Syracuse 1st Half (2x)
-Basically I would expect the Cuse to get 80-85 points here the key is how competitive a game UNCC makes. So far UNCC avsf 41 1st H points to 39 2nd H points...while Cuse defensive avg is less then 30 in 1st half I am hoping they find middle ground like 40-35. Both teams rely heavily on 3 pt shooting ...
Michigan 1st H -10.5 -108 (3x)
- Hopefully the Wolverines just play to there capabilities.. youngstown State isnt that bad but it appears to be struggling losing @ Duquesne although favored by 6
Georgetown -8 -108 (5x) 1st Half
- After a suprising loss I owuld expect Gtown to be focused here. The Stags have lost alot from previous teams and were no match in Gtown last season...
Under 126 -125 Georgetown (3x)
- It could be tough for the Stags to break 50 here..
Over 141 -112 Chaminade (3x)
- You can hear the complaints about the FOUL calls leading to a ton of FT's. Factored iwth the fcat Chaminade LOVES to hoist up threes...Oklahoma should be motivated since they are 0-3...
Arizona -11 -108 1st half (3x)
- Again basically just superior talent do they show up?
GTech +2.5 -110 (3x) ML +128 (2x)
- I like the momentum the Yellow Jackets have after teh comeback win and UCLA came into this tourney battling injuries and worried about minutes..
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts:
Working on the card still..
Early starts CBB:
Over 73 -114 Purdue 2nd Half (3x) Win
Over 134 -110 DePaul (3x) Win ( should have buried this play)
CBB ~
Drexel +104 (2x)
Over 126 -101 Drexel (2x)
Vandy +4 -110 (4x) ML +162 (1.5x)
Kentucky +5.5 -108 (3x) ML +160 (1x)
Under 140 -110 Kentucky (5x)
Over 126 -115 Tex Tech & AF (3x)
Marquette + 5.5 -110 (3x) ML +223 (1x)
Over 148 -105 Duke (3x)
Memphis ML -105 (3x) Loss how I dont know blew 16 pt half lead
Over in Memphis but waiting for halftime to make a 2nd H play.. Over 83 2nd H +111 (1x) No reason with Mem up 16 to get involved but Iwill for 1 unit WIN..should have stuck to my pregame plan I guess
NBA-
Philly 76ers +4.5 -106 (3x) ML +170 (1x) 2nd H over 92.5 -110 (2x)
Under 185 -110 cavs (3x) Really prefer the 1st H but I didnt realize that until after moved Well 90 would have screwed me with 89 what I saw at gametime...2FTs with ess then a second b4 half..OUCH...18 pt lead will not middle cause probably wont see late FTs in this one..
Under 199 -110 Indiana (5x)
Indiana -4.5 -112 (5x) got steamed late I think... 2nd H -3 -111 Ind (2x)
Heat +5 -105 (7x) ML +187 (1.5x)
Mavs -4.5 -112 (3x) 2nd H -3.5 -105 dallas (2x) Over 103.5 -102 (4x)
Under 206.5 +100 Denver (3x) should have read only 3x not 5x
LAC ML -120 (3x)
Thoughts-
- Trust me I know all about the Philly injuries here. I just like dogs missing star players due to a gameday decision. For one game a team can overcome injuries but over the longhaul its a different story...lets see what Willie Greene and kyle Korver can do with AI's 23 shots...
-Came to a late decision that I preferred the 1st H under in Cle so I may middle if possible. cavs play sound defense at home and dont see many easy baskets here...(on paper)
-Went with the under in MILW in the 1st meeting so same principles apply here. Actually Ind beter under team at home. Like Ind despite home and home matchup cause I felt that 1st line was way off..
- I think ATL coming back versus Miami keeps this line fat. Whether West plays or not is NOT a concern of mine. I simplythink he wont be 100% if he does. NO was just -7.5 versus CHAR at home....has Miami fallen that fast? Does Shaq mean that much? Didnt Miami lay -3 in Philly w/o ShaQ??
-Bulls IMO arent the type of team to have a 206 total especially in the midst of a long trip. Bulls big front line should keep this interesting
Thinkking about the few I passed over.......
GOOD LUCK
Working on the card still..
Early starts CBB:
Over 73 -114 Purdue 2nd Half (3x) Win
Over 134 -110 DePaul (3x) Win ( should have buried this play)
CBB ~
Drexel +104 (2x)
Over 126 -101 Drexel (2x)
Vandy +4 -110 (4x) ML +162 (1.5x)
Kentucky +5.5 -108 (3x) ML +160 (1x)
Under 140 -110 Kentucky (5x)
Over 126 -115 Tex Tech & AF (3x)
Marquette + 5.5 -110 (3x) ML +223 (1x)
Over 148 -105 Duke (3x)
Memphis ML -105 (3x) Loss how I dont know blew 16 pt half lead
Over in Memphis but waiting for halftime to make a 2nd H play.. Over 83 2nd H +111 (1x) No reason with Mem up 16 to get involved but Iwill for 1 unit WIN..should have stuck to my pregame plan I guess
NBA-
Philly 76ers +4.5 -106 (3x) ML +170 (1x) 2nd H over 92.5 -110 (2x)
Under 185 -110 cavs (3x) Really prefer the 1st H but I didnt realize that until after moved Well 90 would have screwed me with 89 what I saw at gametime...2FTs with ess then a second b4 half..OUCH...18 pt lead will not middle cause probably wont see late FTs in this one..
Under 199 -110 Indiana (5x)
Indiana -4.5 -112 (5x) got steamed late I think... 2nd H -3 -111 Ind (2x)
Heat +5 -105 (7x) ML +187 (1.5x)
Mavs -4.5 -112 (3x) 2nd H -3.5 -105 dallas (2x) Over 103.5 -102 (4x)
Under 206.5 +100 Denver (3x) should have read only 3x not 5x
LAC ML -120 (3x)
Thoughts-
- Trust me I know all about the Philly injuries here. I just like dogs missing star players due to a gameday decision. For one game a team can overcome injuries but over the longhaul its a different story...lets see what Willie Greene and kyle Korver can do with AI's 23 shots...
-Came to a late decision that I preferred the 1st H under in Cle so I may middle if possible. cavs play sound defense at home and dont see many easy baskets here...(on paper)
-Went with the under in MILW in the 1st meeting so same principles apply here. Actually Ind beter under team at home. Like Ind despite home and home matchup cause I felt that 1st line was way off..
- I think ATL coming back versus Miami keeps this line fat. Whether West plays or not is NOT a concern of mine. I simplythink he wont be 100% if he does. NO was just -7.5 versus CHAR at home....has Miami fallen that fast? Does Shaq mean that much? Didnt Miami lay -3 in Philly w/o ShaQ??
-Bulls IMO arent the type of team to have a 206 total especially in the midst of a long trip. Bulls big front line should keep this interesting
Thinkking about the few I passed over.......
GOOD LUCK
Monday, November 20, 2006
Monday Thoughts Baskets and Football
College Baskets
Under 145-110 Memphis (3x) Win
Over 151 -101 Purdue (5x) Loss
Purdue + 7-103 (2x) 2nd H +3.5 -116 (3x) Loss
Air Force +5.5 -110 (6x)
Chaminade +24 -101 (3x)
Under 125.5 -105 DePaul (3x) 2nd H under 71 +105 (3x)
Under 130 -110 Duke (2x) Under 125 -110 middled Win both
Xavier ML +123 (1x)
Over 145 -112 Marquette (3x)
NBA
Spurs -6-105 (12x) 2nd H -6.5 +103 (5x)
Sonics -2.5 -110 (7x) Over 103.5 -107 2nd H (4x)
Over 212 -105Utah (3x)
Grizz +4 -110 (4x) ML +144 (1x)
Under 185.5 -110 Orlando (3x)
Over 96 -105 Dallas 1st H (2x)
Over 194 -103 Houston (3x)
NFL
NYG +10 / Und 44.5 Teaser (3x) NYG +4 -103 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Game is way to tough IMO
Thoughts
Basically with San Antonio I think to much is being made out of the Spurs performance n back to back nites. I have siad recently after being handed some big losses that books appear to have taken the edge out of situational capping. Askyourself why would Port be only +6 or +7 here after looking at recent spreads in the series where they were no cheaper then +7.5 and repeatedly struggled vs SA. Zach 's 4 games last season vs SA 1/16 , 9 /26 , 11/21 and 4/15. Last niter all Spurs started played less then 32 minutes.
Same with SEA to much is being made out of revenge for NJ here. Rather then focusing on more NJ injuries ( Cliff Robinson is OUT) and the fact they have played something like 8 games in 13 days think thi sis 6 th in 9 days...
Looking at the over in Utah not sure if I wil be around to say of its a pay for sure. Unless the line moves drastically either way assume it is.
Like the Grizz as a dog here hopefully the group of 6'9 forwards can handle Howard. memphis owns Orl winning 7 of 8. Clearkly GAsol is not playing still so those numbers are somewhat irrevelant. However Orl 2-2 away with a 3 pt win and Boston and scoring 92 or less 3 times is IMO!
The Knick - rocket Over cause expecting a competitive game and last time Ming had his way for 35 and 17 I think. Curry was clueless...
Took a shot with the 1st H Over ...Knight should be play and Dallas has straightened out there scoring. bobcats seem to go cold late in games..
Be back with comments....
College Baskets
Under 145-110 Memphis (3x) Win
Over 151 -101 Purdue (5x) Loss
Purdue + 7-103 (2x) 2nd H +3.5 -116 (3x) Loss
Air Force +5.5 -110 (6x)
Chaminade +24 -101 (3x)
Under 125.5 -105 DePaul (3x) 2nd H under 71 +105 (3x)
Under 130 -110 Duke (2x) Under 125 -110 middled Win both
Xavier ML +123 (1x)
Over 145 -112 Marquette (3x)
NBA
Spurs -6-105 (12x) 2nd H -6.5 +103 (5x)
Sonics -2.5 -110 (7x) Over 103.5 -107 2nd H (4x)
Over 212 -105Utah (3x)
Grizz +4 -110 (4x) ML +144 (1x)
Under 185.5 -110 Orlando (3x)
Over 96 -105 Dallas 1st H (2x)
Over 194 -103 Houston (3x)
NFL
NYG +10 / Und 44.5 Teaser (3x) NYG +4 -103 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Game is way to tough IMO
Thoughts
Basically with San Antonio I think to much is being made out of the Spurs performance n back to back nites. I have siad recently after being handed some big losses that books appear to have taken the edge out of situational capping. Askyourself why would Port be only +6 or +7 here after looking at recent spreads in the series where they were no cheaper then +7.5 and repeatedly struggled vs SA. Zach 's 4 games last season vs SA 1/16 , 9 /26 , 11/21 and 4/15. Last niter all Spurs started played less then 32 minutes.
Same with SEA to much is being made out of revenge for NJ here. Rather then focusing on more NJ injuries ( Cliff Robinson is OUT) and the fact they have played something like 8 games in 13 days think thi sis 6 th in 9 days...
Looking at the over in Utah not sure if I wil be around to say of its a pay for sure. Unless the line moves drastically either way assume it is.
Like the Grizz as a dog here hopefully the group of 6'9 forwards can handle Howard. memphis owns Orl winning 7 of 8. Clearkly GAsol is not playing still so those numbers are somewhat irrevelant. However Orl 2-2 away with a 3 pt win and Boston and scoring 92 or less 3 times is IMO!
The Knick - rocket Over cause expecting a competitive game and last time Ming had his way for 35 and 17 I think. Curry was clueless...
Took a shot with the 1st H Over ...Knight should be play and Dallas has straightened out there scoring. bobcats seem to go cold late in games..
Be back with comments....
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Saturday Basketball Thoughts
Poor job by me last nite way to much left on the sidelines thanks to poor judgement.....
Plays ~
Over 214 -110 Seattle @ GS (10x)
Bobcats +8.5 -113 (5x )
Wizards -3-115 (8x)
Minny -3-105 (5x)
Pacers +3.5 +100 (3x) ML +145 (2x)
Miami +3 -108 (5x) ML +133(5x)
Under 197 -110 Clippers (5x)
Over 212 Suns -105 (5x)
Under 192 -110 Dallas (3x)
Under 200 Mil -110 (8x)
Under 187.5 Portland -110 (7x) wait though
Under 195.5 Orlando -110 (3x)
Over 194 +102 Miami (probably 5x should get cheaper) NO PLAY HERE
Under 199 -105 Was (3x)
NCAAB
Marquette 1st H -12 -118 (3x) PUSH
Under 137 -110 Manhattan (3x) 2nd H under 74 -114 (4x)
Toledo -4 -110 (3x)
UMass +12.5 -110 (5x)
Canisus +12 -110 (4x)) Canisus -3-108 (2x)
Alot of plays today which I just dont have time to write about. Though chances are I will be lurking around working on the rest of the NFL . So please if you have a question or need an answer feel free to ask I will do mty best to answer in a timely fashion. GL
Poor job by me last nite way to much left on the sidelines thanks to poor judgement.....
Plays ~
Over 214 -110 Seattle @ GS (10x)
Bobcats +8.5 -113 (5x )
Wizards -3-115 (8x)
Minny -3-105 (5x)
Pacers +3.5 +100 (3x) ML +145 (2x)
Miami +3 -108 (5x) ML +133(5x)
Under 197 -110 Clippers (5x)
Over 212 Suns -105 (5x)
Under 192 -110 Dallas (3x)
Under 200 Mil -110 (8x)
Under 187.5 Portland -110 (7x) wait though
Under 195.5 Orlando -110 (3x)
Over 194 +102 Miami (probably 5x should get cheaper) NO PLAY HERE
Under 199 -105 Was (3x)
NCAAB
Marquette 1st H -12 -118 (3x) PUSH
Under 137 -110 Manhattan (3x) 2nd H under 74 -114 (4x)
Toledo -4 -110 (3x)
UMass +12.5 -110 (5x)
Canisus +12 -110 (4x)) Canisus -3-108 (2x)
Alot of plays today which I just dont have time to write about. Though chances are I will be lurking around working on the rest of the NFL . So please if you have a question or need an answer feel free to ask I will do mty best to answer in a timely fashion. GL
Friday, November 17, 2006
Friday Thoughts -
Plays ~
Under 188 -104 Indiana (5x) L -5.20
Indiana -4.5 -105 (3x) & Indiana -4.5 -110 (3x) L -6.45
Over 193 -105 Boston (4x) W +4.00
Knicks +9 -110 (3x) W +3.00
Wolves +8 -110 (6x) L -6.60
Wiz +5.5 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Grizz +5.5 -105 (3x) ML +200 (1x) L -4.15
Bulls +8.5 -110 (5x) L -3.00
Philly +7.5 -110 (3x)
Raps +8.5 -121 (3x)
Sonics -131 ML (6x)
Under 203.5 -131 Miami (2x) W +2.00
Boston ML -160 (3x)Win
Under 101-108 NYK (1x) Win
Under 94 +102 dallas (2x) Loss
Spurs ML -155 (2.5x) this is to hedge my Bulls 8.5 play Win
Over 107 -105 Seattle (3x)
Thought about middling some of my Minny play and Bulls play but gonna let it ride... Wow Did I fuck up not paying attention to that game in CLE...should have played some Cavs -5.5 2nd H! Poor job by me..... I felt like I was on every sucker play and I had my chances to wiggle out at half but didnt
NCAAB
StJohns +6 -110 (3x) Win
Indiana -14.5 -104 (3x) Loss(blew a 20pt lead)
A&M -14 -105 1st Half (3x) Win
Maryland -5.5 -108 (3x)
Under 76 -108 NM State (3x)
Thoughts -
- NJN @ Ind- the Nets continue to be hit with injuries. The latest is backup PG Marcus Williams who Lawrence Frank called at best questionable tonite. On the Nets off day Nened Kristic went for an MRI on his ailing knee but the results found no damage. Vince should be recovered from the FLU that had him as a game time decision on Tuesday but RJ is still not ready to play. Basically NJ has played Under in its 2 road games and Ind Under in its 3 home games. Last year inthe playoffs these totals were more closer to 180ish. The Pacer offense has struggled for the most part since the opener only topping a 100 @ MSG which as we know is no big accomplishment(sorry Knicks). A little risky playing the fav and the under here since you would expect something along th lines of 94-87 not providing much wiggle room. However NJ has scored only 85 @ Miami and 88 in regulation @ Washington w/0 RJ. This is NJ 4th game in 6 nites which has seen the short handed NJ squad log alot of minutes. If Williams unavailable that leaves a tremendous hole with Antoine Wright already in the starting lineup.
Nets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Nets are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
OU Trends
New Jersey
Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Nets last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-7 in Nets last 28 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4 in Nets last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 overall.
Indiana
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 23-9-1 in Pacers last 33 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5 in Pacers last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 Friday games
-Por @ Boston - I do think Boston has greatly improved past few games but I wonder if 7.5 is just a tad to high ..maybe 6 or 6.5 here. Boston has only been afvored once recently athome vs Chalotte by 5.5 who took them to OT and lost by two. Portland is this RARE team that seems to do one of two things away since the start of last year. They either LOSE ATS or WIN SU. Its actually quite odd but the trend continues as Portland won SU in its first away game @ SEA then followed it with 4 SU and ATS losses. The Celtics really played well in both meetings last season vs port but is that saying much? Without Roy the Blazers are looking for a second option to Randolph. I do like the fact LaMarcus Aldridge has been promoted into the starting lineup though. Should be a solid game actually ..Blazers have allowed at least 100 in all 5 road games. The scary part is this GAME is littered with UNDER trends so I might at some point change my mind or middle. I have a score of 101-95...
-NYK @ Miami - Basially Shaq or Not , Jason Williams or not I dont like how Miami has playd this season. It might be a tall order for NY here but this is simply a fade of Miami.
- Minny @ Cle - Larry Hughes is Out and Pavlovic might get the start. Whether he played or not I had to jump on this. Minny has played well in spurts this season and rebounded from a losing tsreak with a nice game against PORT. Last year Minny was able to win SU in Cleveland. While its hard to imagine there are again tremendous Under trends here that might warrant a play on the under or 1st H under.
- Was @ Det - Basically a bad spot to fade DET IMO after losing SU to NO. However they face a Wiz squad that beat them SU all 3 times last year. Which make for even more revenge here. With the way DET has played defense the OVER as it continues to fall warrants a look. What concerns me is how poorly these teams actually shot against eachother in the games @ the Palace.
- Dallas @ Mem- The Mavs have owned Memphis recently and that was with Gasol. Despite a recent turnaround in play Dallas still isnt playing anywhere near previous levels or seasons. Memphis inserted Atkins into the starting lineup for Mighty Mouse and both played well. Gay started for the injured Eddie Jones and he also left the game injured so keep an eye on those 2 injuries. Basically despite all MEM struggles they have played faily decent at home while even PORT recently gave Dallas a scare (away). Looking for a low scoring sloppy game that is decided late.
-Chi @ SA - Again could this be another bad spot with SA off ahome OT loss to Charlotte. chi paying B to B and SA third in 4 days. Suprisingly Bulls have covered last 5 in SA but they have all been Double Digit spreads. Road team dominants ATS going 10-1 and SA 5-17 ATS at home .
- Philly @ pho - Took a shot with Nash injured and questionable and Raja Bell Quesytionable...will update on this game later. Also hope to CWebb get some extended minutes tonite after speaking to Billy King.
- Tor @ LAL - Toronto has struggled on the road going 0-3 SU & ATS and even struggled in LA. However since kobe returned LAL IMO has struggled to a degeree...so basic fade play.
- Utah @ Seattle - Sonics struggled in 1st game back versus Philly after long trip but played well vs Utah last year. Here I think AK-47 is missed (Kirilenko). The Sonics actually smoked UTAH in the last 3 meetings last year. Ridinour , Allen and Lewis playing well on offense and Wilcox cleaning up the garbage.
Plays ~
Under 188 -104 Indiana (5x) L -5.20
Indiana -4.5 -105 (3x) & Indiana -4.5 -110 (3x) L -6.45
Over 193 -105 Boston (4x) W +4.00
Knicks +9 -110 (3x) W +3.00
Wolves +8 -110 (6x) L -6.60
Wiz +5.5 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Grizz +5.5 -105 (3x) ML +200 (1x) L -4.15
Bulls +8.5 -110 (5x) L -3.00
Philly +7.5 -110 (3x)
Raps +8.5 -121 (3x)
Sonics -131 ML (6x)
Under 203.5 -131 Miami (2x) W +2.00
1st Half
Under 92.5 Dallas -107 (2x) Loss
Under 92 +106 Minny (2x)Win
2nd HBoston ML -160 (3x)Win
Under 101-108 NYK (1x) Win
Under 94 +102 dallas (2x) Loss
Spurs ML -155 (2.5x) this is to hedge my Bulls 8.5 play Win
Over 107 -105 Seattle (3x)
Thought about middling some of my Minny play and Bulls play but gonna let it ride... Wow Did I fuck up not paying attention to that game in CLE...should have played some Cavs -5.5 2nd H! Poor job by me..... I felt like I was on every sucker play and I had my chances to wiggle out at half but didnt
NCAAB
StJohns +6 -110 (3x) Win
Indiana -14.5 -104 (3x) Loss(blew a 20pt lead)
A&M -14 -105 1st Half (3x) Win
Maryland -5.5 -108 (3x)
Under 76 -108 NM State (3x)
Thoughts -
- NJN @ Ind- the Nets continue to be hit with injuries. The latest is backup PG Marcus Williams who Lawrence Frank called at best questionable tonite. On the Nets off day Nened Kristic went for an MRI on his ailing knee but the results found no damage. Vince should be recovered from the FLU that had him as a game time decision on Tuesday but RJ is still not ready to play. Basically NJ has played Under in its 2 road games and Ind Under in its 3 home games. Last year inthe playoffs these totals were more closer to 180ish. The Pacer offense has struggled for the most part since the opener only topping a 100 @ MSG which as we know is no big accomplishment(sorry Knicks). A little risky playing the fav and the under here since you would expect something along th lines of 94-87 not providing much wiggle room. However NJ has scored only 85 @ Miami and 88 in regulation @ Washington w/0 RJ. This is NJ 4th game in 6 nites which has seen the short handed NJ squad log alot of minutes. If Williams unavailable that leaves a tremendous hole with Antoine Wright already in the starting lineup.
Nets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Nets are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
OU Trends
New Jersey
Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Nets last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-7 in Nets last 28 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4 in Nets last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 overall.
Indiana
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 23-9-1 in Pacers last 33 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5 in Pacers last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 Friday games
-Por @ Boston - I do think Boston has greatly improved past few games but I wonder if 7.5 is just a tad to high ..maybe 6 or 6.5 here. Boston has only been afvored once recently athome vs Chalotte by 5.5 who took them to OT and lost by two. Portland is this RARE team that seems to do one of two things away since the start of last year. They either LOSE ATS or WIN SU. Its actually quite odd but the trend continues as Portland won SU in its first away game @ SEA then followed it with 4 SU and ATS losses. The Celtics really played well in both meetings last season vs port but is that saying much? Without Roy the Blazers are looking for a second option to Randolph. I do like the fact LaMarcus Aldridge has been promoted into the starting lineup though. Should be a solid game actually ..Blazers have allowed at least 100 in all 5 road games. The scary part is this GAME is littered with UNDER trends so I might at some point change my mind or middle. I have a score of 101-95...
-NYK @ Miami - Basially Shaq or Not , Jason Williams or not I dont like how Miami has playd this season. It might be a tall order for NY here but this is simply a fade of Miami.
- Minny @ Cle - Larry Hughes is Out and Pavlovic might get the start. Whether he played or not I had to jump on this. Minny has played well in spurts this season and rebounded from a losing tsreak with a nice game against PORT. Last year Minny was able to win SU in Cleveland. While its hard to imagine there are again tremendous Under trends here that might warrant a play on the under or 1st H under.
- Was @ Det - Basically a bad spot to fade DET IMO after losing SU to NO. However they face a Wiz squad that beat them SU all 3 times last year. Which make for even more revenge here. With the way DET has played defense the OVER as it continues to fall warrants a look. What concerns me is how poorly these teams actually shot against eachother in the games @ the Palace.
- Dallas @ Mem- The Mavs have owned Memphis recently and that was with Gasol. Despite a recent turnaround in play Dallas still isnt playing anywhere near previous levels or seasons. Memphis inserted Atkins into the starting lineup for Mighty Mouse and both played well. Gay started for the injured Eddie Jones and he also left the game injured so keep an eye on those 2 injuries. Basically despite all MEM struggles they have played faily decent at home while even PORT recently gave Dallas a scare (away). Looking for a low scoring sloppy game that is decided late.
-Chi @ SA - Again could this be another bad spot with SA off ahome OT loss to Charlotte. chi paying B to B and SA third in 4 days. Suprisingly Bulls have covered last 5 in SA but they have all been Double Digit spreads. Road team dominants ATS going 10-1 and SA 5-17 ATS at home .
- Philly @ pho - Took a shot with Nash injured and questionable and Raja Bell Quesytionable...will update on this game later. Also hope to CWebb get some extended minutes tonite after speaking to Billy King.
- Tor @ LAL - Toronto has struggled on the road going 0-3 SU & ATS and even struggled in LA. However since kobe returned LAL IMO has struggled to a degeree...so basic fade play.
- Utah @ Seattle - Sonics struggled in 1st game back versus Philly after long trip but played well vs Utah last year. Here I think AK-47 is missed (Kirilenko). The Sonics actually smoked UTAH in the last 3 meetings last year. Ridinour , Allen and Lewis playing well on offense and Wilcox cleaning up the garbage.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
TNT Thursday Nite Basketball
Plays-
Bulls +5 -105 (4x) Win
Warriors -4.5 -110 (4x) Win
Under 203.5 -110 Sac (3x) Loss
2nd H
over 90 -135 Houston (2x) Win
Under 104.5 -124 GS (3x) Win
NCAAB -
Under 145.5 -110 Duke (3x) W
Over 141.5 -105 StJohns (3x) W
Under 140.5 -105 Texas (3x) W
USC -5 -106 (2x) & 1st H -2.5 -112 (2x) Win & Loss (wash)
Mich St +4.5 -105 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Win(lost hedge though)
2nd H
Under 79 +105 GT (1.5x) Loss
Under 75 -123 StJ (1x) Win
Texas ML -140 (2x) hedging out of Mich State play L -2.8
Thoughts-
- In Houston you have to wonder about there mindset after falling apart versus SA. Chi is desperate for a good road performance but losing @ Orlando , Cle and Dallas is nothing to be ashamed of especially when considering they played all games in bad situations maybe today is favorably if HOU has a hangover. They played a winless Dallas team(at home) after they turned the corner on the road , Orlando right after they smoke Miami in the road opener , and Cavs after the home loss in OT to ATL...thought about the over @ 179 but 181 doesnt interest me with these etams. Chi is desperate for a good defensive effort..which scares me..and its still Houston who managed 9 in the 4th Q at home
- I do think GS will be tough to be athome this year like SAC @ Arco. Definetly think GS at home for awhile is an edge to playing B to B(and shorthanded).
Basically I think SAC will continue to be inconsistent offensively and they barely topped 90 once on the road in 3 meetings. For the up and down style GS plays (small ball) only 2 teams have broken a 100 versu sthem at home....Tor and LAL in the opener). Waiting to see what the total does but actually thinking under..
Plays-
Bulls +5 -105 (4x) Win
Warriors -4.5 -110 (4x) Win
Under 203.5 -110 Sac (3x) Loss
2nd H
over 90 -135 Houston (2x) Win
Under 104.5 -124 GS (3x) Win
NCAAB -
Under 145.5 -110 Duke (3x) W
Over 141.5 -105 StJohns (3x) W
Under 140.5 -105 Texas (3x) W
USC -5 -106 (2x) & 1st H -2.5 -112 (2x) Win & Loss (wash)
Mich St +4.5 -105 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Win(lost hedge though)
2nd H
Under 79 +105 GT (1.5x) Loss
Under 75 -123 StJ (1x) Win
Texas ML -140 (2x) hedging out of Mich State play L -2.8
Thoughts-
- In Houston you have to wonder about there mindset after falling apart versus SA. Chi is desperate for a good road performance but losing @ Orlando , Cle and Dallas is nothing to be ashamed of especially when considering they played all games in bad situations maybe today is favorably if HOU has a hangover. They played a winless Dallas team(at home) after they turned the corner on the road , Orlando right after they smoke Miami in the road opener , and Cavs after the home loss in OT to ATL...thought about the over @ 179 but 181 doesnt interest me with these etams. Chi is desperate for a good defensive effort..which scares me..and its still Houston who managed 9 in the 4th Q at home
- I do think GS will be tough to be athome this year like SAC @ Arco. Definetly think GS at home for awhile is an edge to playing B to B(and shorthanded).
Basically I think SAC will continue to be inconsistent offensively and they barely topped 90 once on the road in 3 meetings. For the up and down style GS plays (small ball) only 2 teams have broken a 100 versu sthem at home....Tor and LAL in the opener). Waiting to see what the total does but actually thinking under..
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
NFL Week 11 Thoughts
Plays -
New York Jets +7.5 -120 (8x) ML +270 (1x) Loss
Oakland +10 -111(8x) ML +425 (1/2x) Win
Broncos ML -128 (10x) SD +3 -105 (4x)late hedge cause T.Bell was inactive
Dallas +1.5 -110 (8x) ML +100 (5x) Win
SF +4.5 +100 (5x) ML +210 (1x) Win
Ravens -3-110 (3x) Win
Minny +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +178 (1x) Loss
Browns +4.5 -110 (4x) ML +182 (1x) Win
Rams +7 -115 (5x) Loss
Bills +3 -113 (4x) ML +139 (2x) win
Eagles -12.5 -110 (3x) changed my mind Loss
Cardinals ML -125 (5x) Win
3 strong leans -
TB -3 -105
NO -3.5 ++
NE -5.5
Totals
Over 49 -123 Cincy (5x) & Under 52 -110 (5x)
Over 41 +102 Denver & SD (5x) uND 43 -116 (2X) HEDGE DUE TO t.BELL INACTIVE
Under 17.5 -111 KC 1st Half (3x) Loss
Under 44.5 -110 Philly (3x) Win
Over 43.5 -110 Carolina (3x) Loss
Under 37 -115 Houston (3x) Loss
Under 34 -110 TB (5x) Loss
Under 40-110 Chicago (7x) Win
Team Totals
Under 23 -111 KC 92x) W
Over 23.5 -127 Dallas (2x) L
Under 20.5 -108 Pitt (1x) L
2nd Half -
Under 19 -110 KC (6x) Win
Pitt -3 -115 (1.5x) small hedge Win
Under 20 -105 Hou (2x) changed my mind - NO PLAY
Over 17 -114 Miami (3x) Win
Ravens -3 -115 (2x) Win
Bear -3-108 (3x) hedge Win
Saints -3 -116 (2x) again changed my mind Loss
Pats PK -113 (2x ) No Favre possibly in the 2nd H? Win
Under 20 -120 NE (2x) Win
Over 24 -128 Siants (2x) Win
Eagles -5.5 -106 (3x) Loss
Ov 19.5 -120 SF (2x) Loss
Over 24.5 -124 Indy (5x) Win
Notre dame 1st H -15 -119 (3x) W
NBA
Lakers -2.5 -110 (3x)
Spurs -2 -118 (5x)
Spurs 2nd H ML -128 (5x)
Lean towards both unders...not sure if or how I play it. Waiting till half in LA though for a total ida...
The 1 PM halftime comments-
Well Pats leading 21-0 athalftime is a kick in the balls but I hope they contineu there dominance regardless. Minny cant stop the pass and Big Ben passing to the wrong team (again) but hope that continues. Sainst doing everything humanly possibly to lose with 3 turnovers should have just went into teh half tied but since I am momentum guy I wont play TB or NO 2nd Half due to teh fact they both threw picks rightbefore thehalf taking points off the board.
StL @ Car - Just what should we expect from STL with 2 key injuries. Car looked unimpressive to me versus TB. Basically Car tends to be a bad fav and STL should find ways to score here so I took a shot with +7...scary part is injury to Fisher I think Pace is a loss but not as bad as Fisher
Cincy @ NO- Not sure of Cincy s mindset here after the collapse. Both teams have serious issues on defense which could make the hook valuable . I have looked at this game up and down. The Sainsts as a fav are risky as they failed two in laying -1 versus Balt and failed to cover -3.5 vs TB. The Saints D has struggled since losing Roman Harper @ safety. Out side of that injury though NO comes in relatively healthy. My question is what are the book strying to do with this line? It just seems with the HOOK they are begging youto play Cincy. With Cincy its all about the INJURIES IMO. Already down 3 LBs this year they have 2 on the injury list this week but Brooks is Probable. On the OL Willie Anderson will play but they have lost Brahm, Jones and now Bennie Anderson last week! In the secondary it appears Delthea O'Neal will not play and Dexter Jackson is listed as questionable. Teams have run on NO but Cincy has failed to let Rudi do his thing this year and now with a banged up OL it might not be possible. The Sainst played poorly verus Balt which is a top notch defense see the 2 defensive scores but rebounded and went to TB and smoked them. Then they went head to head , nearly shot for shot @ pitt with a desperate Steelers team and Joe Horn on the sidelines. Truth is I think fundamentally 3.5 is to high but again I think Cincy being dogged at home last week and not covering was a huge sign. Tons of close losses have to take there toll eventually. Basically +3.5 looks like a great value play but I think Cincy could begin to unravel here. How does a sensitive team overcome this? Remember TJ Houszmanzadeh got his bell rung and the week before Chris Henry chicken armed the last pass of the game drawing Palmers ire....think Saints find a way to cover but no play yet (thought about -1.5 -115 NO but Cinc usually falls apart in the 2nd H.)
Buffalo @ Hous- 0 Injuries to Villareal and Macgahee leave question marks though A-Train is fine. Hous lost 3 key players last week and watched there QB get dinged up... After much thought I felt Pinnacle was taking a side here keping HOU at -1 all week when it was 2.5 everywhere else. The Texans are playing well but now after being a DD dog they are a FG fav which takes the value out of them IMO. Remember Buff was favored in DET by 1 pt and lost by 3. The Texans ahve improved and have the Moulds subplot but injuries decimated them in the Jags win. These teams met in BUFF last year with different RBs and Bills won 22-7. Bills played 5 road gmes and only laid an egg @ Chi 2pt loss @ NE , 1 pt loss @ Indy , win @ Miami , FG loss @ Det. My feeling was game should be Bills -1 or PK...Hous would actually have to win 2 in a row to cover and are 5-16 L21 ATS off a SU win...
Wash @ TB- The Skins defense has been a letdown. Now you get Campbell @ QB after being inactive his whole career. A week of pratice does help but how many 1st team reps do you think he received previously. Not to mention first game action , on the road , versus an agreessive and veteran defense. To make matters worse you dont have Portis and Santana Moss is still less then 100% from what I read( Moss is OUT now). TB isnt much better but there D was impressive against CAR and makes me wonder what Skins can do. TB wants revenge for the playoff loss last year and Cadillac needs to get the ball and Gradkowski is very capable IMO. Skins allow 4.2 YPC on the road...hope Gruden sees that as well.. very low scoring tilt
Tenn @ Philly - The Easgles are always a question mark. Tenny however IMO seems to struggle with tough defenses (SD , Dallas , Jax) and explosive offenses. U wonder about Tennys mindset after a couple close losses. The team is greatly improved with Vince @ QB but they still dont do much offensively. What scares me here for Tenny is there injured defensive players who are questionable DE Odom is already OUT and laBoy is questionable( 2 backups are questionable). Robaire Smith is questionable but Haynesworth is active. Reynaldo Hill @ CB is questionable. Very key is Bironas the PK is battling a sore groin. david Givens we never knew ya done for the year. Benji Olson on the OL , you guessed it questionable. With Morningwig calling the plays now expected a more balanced attack which means they actually run the ball(chew clock). The main reason I wont play Philly is the fact they have Indy on deck.
Det @ Ari - Havent flipped the coin yet but Zona seems lost.. Again though Line strength indicates that in similiar situations ARI is the stronger team. An 8 game losing streak makes you desperate and DET is as bad as they come on the road so ARI is the play here versus a weak defense.
Sea @ SF- Again to much hype like in KC for the return of Alexander. The guy probably isnt 100% still and hasnt played in how long? Morris got injured last game as well so wouldnt be suprised to see them share time. Wallace still @ QB didnt do all that much IMO past 2 home games. The 49ers after a big road win continue to not get any respect. Look at how this defense is playing. Look how well the Dorsey and Hicks led SF squad played the real Hawks last year ta home...SF has been tough at home struggling versus explosive offenses which at this point I dont see Sea as qualifying. Gore had a great 1st half but left with an injury in the 2nd H but should be okay here. Thought SEA worst case would be -3...SF should have Vernon Davis and dont look butthey are 4-5 could they make a run @ Seattle here?? Sea last 6 only 3-3 with last minute wins (twice) against STL and 2-2 away barely escaping @ Det and @ STL.
-Indy @ Dallas - Dont be fooled this LINE is not SOFT. Its basically where it should be (PK). Remember that while INDY won they were also FG DOGS @ denver and @ NE. Probably wil wind up playing the home team who seems really motivated to be the ones who stop this undefeated streak. Justhave to work on this game. lets not forget that Indy barely won @NY(twice) and Denver. Have to get a real injury report for Indy still...
Now that I thought about this situation clearly IMO Dallas is the play. First they are motivated to break Indy win streak and spotless season and they have been re-energized by Tony Romo. Again back to the line if you look at the numbers to comparable opponents this season you will see Dallas and Indy actually grade out fairly equal which means HFA would make Dallas a small favorite here. You look at the football side and see Dallas has the running game and WR's to make plays on offense. Defensively they will have to do one thing ...avoid the big pass play which has plagued them. However outside of that I feel DAL D has played exetremely well. Just like in Denver and NE the Colts should have been a DOG here....they arent which creates value in the home team...
~ NE @ GB - The Packers are improving but this is a scary bad spot. You have NE off 2 losses and thats rare. GB has shown us that if they dont make mistakes they can win ball games but we kknew that. Very key here is GB lsoing tauscher on the OL and going with 3 rookie OL!! Very key is how NE for wahtever reason ( the turf @ NE) the PATS have been night and day better on the road. They were also 5.5 pt favs @ NYJ and Buffalo...both teams have shared opponents recently (Min and Buf) and you can see that NE is clearly the stronger team spread wise as they were fav both times and GB dogged both times. GB lack of WR canbe an issue here...if NE secondary was healthy this would be a no brainer for me..... Staying away from cause mt first instinct was GB then I saw the line actually was were it should be at -6. Then Samuel being out further clouds the NE secondary and it simply a pass...
Thoughts -
~ Bears @ NYJ - The Bears in the midst of a tough 3 game road stretch return to the Meadowlands this Sunday. You have to wonder if this takes some of the home field advantage away from NY since Chicago will have a better then normal comfort level now. What has to be kept in midn though is NY is returning from almost what can be called a historic win in NE since the Pats have owned NYJ for so long. Also of note is the Bears have NE on deck next week.
Barlow had his best game as NYJ and this could mean we have a tough tandem of Barlow and Washington going forward. This is quite important in this matchup since the one weakness CHI has shown lately defensively is the ability to stop the run. Gore had 111 yards against them , followed by Ronnie Brown 's 157 , and Tiki's 146. Grossman settled down and without a pass rush played well in the 2nd Half. Part of what NY did @ NE was get to Brady and rush his throws. Hopefully NY is again able to confuse the opposing offense. NY has already played a tight game versus Indy so I dont think it matters who there opponent is at the moment.
Personally CHI as road chalk is still a risky proposition at this point. The Giants were injury riddled this past week and werent exactly a test. Huge home game for the Jets IMO as they attempt to prove the NE game was not a fluke...Only the Jax game was a loss by more then 7 points otherwise they were in those other 3 losses late but couldnt make a play. Bears defense has allowed at least 20 poinst in 3 of 4. While I dont have the numbers I believe the NFC has played poorly against the AFC. Simply put and overreaction with this line to CHI on national TV beating a depleted butNAME franchise in the NYG. Most of the points in recent CHI games have come off turnovers whether its been there offense or the opposing offense with the miscues...so while the OVER looks enticing if they play sound football this should be a 17-14 game... Bears away scored 19 @ GB plus a punt return , 19 @ Minny late TD off a turnover , zero on offense @ Zona before the NYG game. The Under looks very interesting here IMO...
~Oak @ KC- Trent Green returns to action and you have to wonder how much rust he will show. KC has won the past 6 meetings but all close games and by less then 7points. OAK was actually +9.5 & +11 in two of the trips to KC and losing by 4 last year as +3. Last year KC scored with no time on the clock to win though. Basically what I am saying is this is always a great rivalry game. KC has 4 key injuries Waters on the OL and TE Tony Gonzalez both listed as OUT. On defense Wesley @ safety and D. Johnson @ LB are key players who did NOT play last week & appear unlikey to play here. You can also add Tambi Hali to the mix of layers who may not play. The Oakland defense continues to fly under the radar with the Oakland offense struggling and receiving the attention. Hopefully OAK goes with Brooks(they did) as Walter has improved but still makes to many mistakes and he is right the OAK game plan is horrendous. Oak has 5 straight with the opposition scoring 17 or less. To me this is clearly a warm up game for Green and KC with Denver on deck on Thanksgiving. Naturally they are playing to win but I think going in versus a weak opponent they are looking to answer some questions rather then dismantle a struggling team. Really like the UNDER here @ 36 /36.5 would like to play this. What concerns me is this total in recent year shas been in the 50's and even a 60. By the way Green is a walking target IMO.
~ Atl @ Balt - With Vick playing here we have almost a carbon copy of last weeks game in Tenny with Young @ QB. Suddenly the ATL offense is struggling and the defense continues to lose key contributors as Kearney is now out for the season follwoing injuries to Webster and Mathis is the secondary previously. Balt did play @ Tenny w/o Ray Lewis so hopefully he returns but he just had blood drained from his back or something. Teams gaining 2.8 ypc against the Ravens on the ground in Baltimore doesnt bode well for ATL especially with a dinged up OL. One note is ATL is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year. Somewhat scared of Vick in a DOG role and ray Lewis not playing. Along with the line move concerning me . Thankfully I was able to play +4 last nite and buy -3 this morning as th Ravens are -3.5 with ++vig now. Would say the OVER is the play here but waiting till halftime.
~ Pitt @ Cle - Personally I think since Maurice Carthon was fired / resigned this team has grown up. They have always played well enough defensively to keep them in games but they hang all game with SD but couldnt scored TDs instead setting for FG's. They jumped on ATL and cruised. As some Browns fans have pointed out with a young offense they are willing to sit on leads and just get conservative( not to mention 0 , 13 , and 6 last few at home vs Pitt). From what have read last years 41-0 drubbing left a sour taste in the mouthes of CLE players. I wont say revenge but motivated is probably the proper word. Pitt is banged up in the secondary with 3 key players leaving with concussions last week. Pitt was very close to losing that game last week. They have not won a road game (0-4) and worse is Fast Willie Parker and the boyz manage just 58 yd pergame on the road which has been Clevs weakness. The Browns injury list is littered with key players probably pulling a page from NE. One concern is Droughns avaliability since there is not much proven depth at RB. At home Cle has allowed 19 , 15 , 17 and 13 which always makes them a live dog. So pretty sure with Pitt off a less then impressive home game , winless on the road struggling to establish running game which leaves the door open to Big Ben forcing passes, we shall see a BROWNS play here.. really wanted to play the over here but the total has dropped and its appears weather is the reason...37 loooks so juicy but its a pass.
-Minny @ Miami - Historically Miami is a POOR fav. How poor you ask? Well they are 6-18 ATS L24 as chalk and 6-20 ATS L26 at home. Miami is 2-14 ATS L16 at home as a favorite. How bout 1-12 ATS L 13 at home versus teams with a losing record. The Vikes though are 6-19 L25 ATS on grass. However its very key IMO that Minnesota is in the role of DOG after there recent struggles. Miami lost Traylor and Jeno James two key players last week plus Ronnie Brown says he less then 100 playing with a strained groin...Now Minny also has a who's who injury list with chester Taylor , Fred Smoot , Pat Willaims , all word OL Hutchinhson and Birk all apearing on it. Thats why I remain cautious. However one key returnee is Marcus Robinson as I have said in recent weeks he is very important to the offense since he is there deep threat. Basically we have very identical teams here with the difference being that Miami gets to play at home. Now looking at the past data playing at HOME has not been an advantage for them. They lost tough road games @ SF and @ Buff cause the offense couldnt do anything but was able to win @ Wash and @ Seattle cause the offense made enough plays. basically this Miami D has carried them in wins over CHi and KC now with key injuries I think Miami doesnt have the wiggle room to escape here. Lets not forget that Joey Harrington is no stranger to playing against Minnesota. In fact he has 6 career starts versus them and is 0-6!! To his credit he has had a couple of good games againstthem and his DET team was never blown out but he has a 7TD to 12 INT ratio and that is key IMO. He completed 57% of his passes in those games and avg 6.06 yds per attempt..basically average to slightily below average. Clearly Culpepper would have great incentive to play well in this game but sadly he is injured.
~ SD @ Denver- The Cahrgers defense is missing so many key players and WR's Parker and Floyd are questionable. Some stats 4 you :
LT @ Denver
2001 Lost 26-16 14c 75yds
2002 Lost 26-9 14c 48yds
2003 Lost 37-8 8c 29yds
2004 Lost 23-13 22c 60yds
2005 Lost 20-17 19c 52 yds
10 career games just two 100 yd games but did have 220yds in SD once. Has 8 career TDS vs Den but those came in 4 of the 10 games and just two away both in 2005 . With only 1 game his 1st @ Den where he avg 4 yds or better per carry. In LT's 10 career games SD is 3-7 vs Denver and those are the only 3 times SD has managed 20 or more points vs Denver...Gates has also been largely ineffective with just 16c for 164 yds in 4 games but 3 had less then 31 yards receiving. Plummer is 5-1 as a Bronco vs SD..... 248 , 294 and 253 yds vs SD at home with 5tds and 2 Ints. believe Marty is 3-14 as well in Denver going back to his KC days....
Working on the rest.......
Plays -
New York Jets +7.5 -120 (8x) ML +270 (1x) Loss
Oakland +10 -111(8x) ML +425 (1/2x) Win
Broncos ML -128 (10x) SD +3 -105 (4x)late hedge cause T.Bell was inactive
Dallas +1.5 -110 (8x) ML +100 (5x) Win
SF +4.5 +100 (5x) ML +210 (1x) Win
Ravens -3-110 (3x) Win
Minny +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +178 (1x) Loss
Browns +4.5 -110 (4x) ML +182 (1x) Win
Rams +7 -115 (5x) Loss
Bills +3 -113 (4x) ML +139 (2x) win
Eagles -12.5 -110 (3x) changed my mind Loss
Cardinals ML -125 (5x) Win
3 strong leans -
TB -3 -105
NO -3.5 ++
NE -5.5
Totals
Over 49 -123 Cincy (5x) & Under 52 -110 (5x)
Over 41 +102 Denver & SD (5x) uND 43 -116 (2X) HEDGE DUE TO t.BELL INACTIVE
Under 17.5 -111 KC 1st Half (3x) Loss
Under 44.5 -110 Philly (3x) Win
Over 43.5 -110 Carolina (3x) Loss
Under 37 -115 Houston (3x) Loss
Under 34 -110 TB (5x) Loss
Under 40-110 Chicago (7x) Win
Team Totals
Under 23 -111 KC 92x) W
Over 23.5 -127 Dallas (2x) L
Under 20.5 -108 Pitt (1x) L
2nd Half -
Under 19 -110 KC (6x) Win
Pitt -3 -115 (1.5x) small hedge Win
Under 20 -105 Hou (2x) changed my mind - NO PLAY
Over 17 -114 Miami (3x) Win
Ravens -3 -115 (2x) Win
Bear -3-108 (3x) hedge Win
Saints -3 -116 (2x) again changed my mind Loss
Pats PK -113 (2x ) No Favre possibly in the 2nd H? Win
Under 20 -120 NE (2x) Win
Over 24 -128 Siants (2x) Win
Eagles -5.5 -106 (3x) Loss
Ov 19.5 -120 SF (2x) Loss
Over 24.5 -124 Indy (5x) Win
NCAAB
Over 76 Zona 1st H -104 (3x)W
Kansas -15.5 1st H -115(3x)W (layub with 8 secs left to lead by 17!!
Und 142 -116 StL (probably will hedge at half if possible) A&M leads 34-13 @ H...NO HEDGENotre dame 1st H -15 -119 (3x) W
NBA
Lakers -2.5 -110 (3x)
Spurs -2 -118 (5x)
Spurs 2nd H ML -128 (5x)
Lean towards both unders...not sure if or how I play it. Waiting till half in LA though for a total ida...
The 1 PM halftime comments-
Well Pats leading 21-0 athalftime is a kick in the balls but I hope they contineu there dominance regardless. Minny cant stop the pass and Big Ben passing to the wrong team (again) but hope that continues. Sainst doing everything humanly possibly to lose with 3 turnovers should have just went into teh half tied but since I am momentum guy I wont play TB or NO 2nd Half due to teh fact they both threw picks rightbefore thehalf taking points off the board.
StL @ Car - Just what should we expect from STL with 2 key injuries. Car looked unimpressive to me versus TB. Basically Car tends to be a bad fav and STL should find ways to score here so I took a shot with +7...scary part is injury to Fisher I think Pace is a loss but not as bad as Fisher
Cincy @ NO- Not sure of Cincy s mindset here after the collapse. Both teams have serious issues on defense which could make the hook valuable . I have looked at this game up and down. The Sainsts as a fav are risky as they failed two in laying -1 versus Balt and failed to cover -3.5 vs TB. The Saints D has struggled since losing Roman Harper @ safety. Out side of that injury though NO comes in relatively healthy. My question is what are the book strying to do with this line? It just seems with the HOOK they are begging youto play Cincy. With Cincy its all about the INJURIES IMO. Already down 3 LBs this year they have 2 on the injury list this week but Brooks is Probable. On the OL Willie Anderson will play but they have lost Brahm, Jones and now Bennie Anderson last week! In the secondary it appears Delthea O'Neal will not play and Dexter Jackson is listed as questionable. Teams have run on NO but Cincy has failed to let Rudi do his thing this year and now with a banged up OL it might not be possible. The Sainst played poorly verus Balt which is a top notch defense see the 2 defensive scores but rebounded and went to TB and smoked them. Then they went head to head , nearly shot for shot @ pitt with a desperate Steelers team and Joe Horn on the sidelines. Truth is I think fundamentally 3.5 is to high but again I think Cincy being dogged at home last week and not covering was a huge sign. Tons of close losses have to take there toll eventually. Basically +3.5 looks like a great value play but I think Cincy could begin to unravel here. How does a sensitive team overcome this? Remember TJ Houszmanzadeh got his bell rung and the week before Chris Henry chicken armed the last pass of the game drawing Palmers ire....think Saints find a way to cover but no play yet (thought about -1.5 -115 NO but Cinc usually falls apart in the 2nd H.)
Buffalo @ Hous- 0 Injuries to Villareal and Macgahee leave question marks though A-Train is fine. Hous lost 3 key players last week and watched there QB get dinged up... After much thought I felt Pinnacle was taking a side here keping HOU at -1 all week when it was 2.5 everywhere else. The Texans are playing well but now after being a DD dog they are a FG fav which takes the value out of them IMO. Remember Buff was favored in DET by 1 pt and lost by 3. The Texans ahve improved and have the Moulds subplot but injuries decimated them in the Jags win. These teams met in BUFF last year with different RBs and Bills won 22-7. Bills played 5 road gmes and only laid an egg @ Chi 2pt loss @ NE , 1 pt loss @ Indy , win @ Miami , FG loss @ Det. My feeling was game should be Bills -1 or PK...Hous would actually have to win 2 in a row to cover and are 5-16 L21 ATS off a SU win...
Wash @ TB- The Skins defense has been a letdown. Now you get Campbell @ QB after being inactive his whole career. A week of pratice does help but how many 1st team reps do you think he received previously. Not to mention first game action , on the road , versus an agreessive and veteran defense. To make matters worse you dont have Portis and Santana Moss is still less then 100% from what I read( Moss is OUT now). TB isnt much better but there D was impressive against CAR and makes me wonder what Skins can do. TB wants revenge for the playoff loss last year and Cadillac needs to get the ball and Gradkowski is very capable IMO. Skins allow 4.2 YPC on the road...hope Gruden sees that as well.. very low scoring tilt
Tenn @ Philly - The Easgles are always a question mark. Tenny however IMO seems to struggle with tough defenses (SD , Dallas , Jax) and explosive offenses. U wonder about Tennys mindset after a couple close losses. The team is greatly improved with Vince @ QB but they still dont do much offensively. What scares me here for Tenny is there injured defensive players who are questionable DE Odom is already OUT and laBoy is questionable( 2 backups are questionable). Robaire Smith is questionable but Haynesworth is active. Reynaldo Hill @ CB is questionable. Very key is Bironas the PK is battling a sore groin. david Givens we never knew ya done for the year. Benji Olson on the OL , you guessed it questionable. With Morningwig calling the plays now expected a more balanced attack which means they actually run the ball(chew clock). The main reason I wont play Philly is the fact they have Indy on deck.
Det @ Ari - Havent flipped the coin yet but Zona seems lost.. Again though Line strength indicates that in similiar situations ARI is the stronger team. An 8 game losing streak makes you desperate and DET is as bad as they come on the road so ARI is the play here versus a weak defense.
Sea @ SF- Again to much hype like in KC for the return of Alexander. The guy probably isnt 100% still and hasnt played in how long? Morris got injured last game as well so wouldnt be suprised to see them share time. Wallace still @ QB didnt do all that much IMO past 2 home games. The 49ers after a big road win continue to not get any respect. Look at how this defense is playing. Look how well the Dorsey and Hicks led SF squad played the real Hawks last year ta home...SF has been tough at home struggling versus explosive offenses which at this point I dont see Sea as qualifying. Gore had a great 1st half but left with an injury in the 2nd H but should be okay here. Thought SEA worst case would be -3...SF should have Vernon Davis and dont look butthey are 4-5 could they make a run @ Seattle here?? Sea last 6 only 3-3 with last minute wins (twice) against STL and 2-2 away barely escaping @ Det and @ STL.
-Indy @ Dallas - Dont be fooled this LINE is not SOFT. Its basically where it should be (PK). Remember that while INDY won they were also FG DOGS @ denver and @ NE. Probably wil wind up playing the home team who seems really motivated to be the ones who stop this undefeated streak. Justhave to work on this game. lets not forget that Indy barely won @NY(twice) and Denver. Have to get a real injury report for Indy still...
Now that I thought about this situation clearly IMO Dallas is the play. First they are motivated to break Indy win streak and spotless season and they have been re-energized by Tony Romo. Again back to the line if you look at the numbers to comparable opponents this season you will see Dallas and Indy actually grade out fairly equal which means HFA would make Dallas a small favorite here. You look at the football side and see Dallas has the running game and WR's to make plays on offense. Defensively they will have to do one thing ...avoid the big pass play which has plagued them. However outside of that I feel DAL D has played exetremely well. Just like in Denver and NE the Colts should have been a DOG here....they arent which creates value in the home team...
~ NE @ GB - The Packers are improving but this is a scary bad spot. You have NE off 2 losses and thats rare. GB has shown us that if they dont make mistakes they can win ball games but we kknew that. Very key here is GB lsoing tauscher on the OL and going with 3 rookie OL!! Very key is how NE for wahtever reason ( the turf @ NE) the PATS have been night and day better on the road. They were also 5.5 pt favs @ NYJ and Buffalo...both teams have shared opponents recently (Min and Buf) and you can see that NE is clearly the stronger team spread wise as they were fav both times and GB dogged both times. GB lack of WR canbe an issue here...if NE secondary was healthy this would be a no brainer for me..... Staying away from cause mt first instinct was GB then I saw the line actually was were it should be at -6. Then Samuel being out further clouds the NE secondary and it simply a pass...
Thoughts -
~ Bears @ NYJ - The Bears in the midst of a tough 3 game road stretch return to the Meadowlands this Sunday. You have to wonder if this takes some of the home field advantage away from NY since Chicago will have a better then normal comfort level now. What has to be kept in midn though is NY is returning from almost what can be called a historic win in NE since the Pats have owned NYJ for so long. Also of note is the Bears have NE on deck next week.
Barlow had his best game as NYJ and this could mean we have a tough tandem of Barlow and Washington going forward. This is quite important in this matchup since the one weakness CHI has shown lately defensively is the ability to stop the run. Gore had 111 yards against them , followed by Ronnie Brown 's 157 , and Tiki's 146. Grossman settled down and without a pass rush played well in the 2nd Half. Part of what NY did @ NE was get to Brady and rush his throws. Hopefully NY is again able to confuse the opposing offense. NY has already played a tight game versus Indy so I dont think it matters who there opponent is at the moment.
Personally CHI as road chalk is still a risky proposition at this point. The Giants were injury riddled this past week and werent exactly a test. Huge home game for the Jets IMO as they attempt to prove the NE game was not a fluke...Only the Jax game was a loss by more then 7 points otherwise they were in those other 3 losses late but couldnt make a play. Bears defense has allowed at least 20 poinst in 3 of 4. While I dont have the numbers I believe the NFC has played poorly against the AFC. Simply put and overreaction with this line to CHI on national TV beating a depleted butNAME franchise in the NYG. Most of the points in recent CHI games have come off turnovers whether its been there offense or the opposing offense with the miscues...so while the OVER looks enticing if they play sound football this should be a 17-14 game... Bears away scored 19 @ GB plus a punt return , 19 @ Minny late TD off a turnover , zero on offense @ Zona before the NYG game. The Under looks very interesting here IMO...
~Oak @ KC- Trent Green returns to action and you have to wonder how much rust he will show. KC has won the past 6 meetings but all close games and by less then 7points. OAK was actually +9.5 & +11 in two of the trips to KC and losing by 4 last year as +3. Last year KC scored with no time on the clock to win though. Basically what I am saying is this is always a great rivalry game. KC has 4 key injuries Waters on the OL and TE Tony Gonzalez both listed as OUT. On defense Wesley @ safety and D. Johnson @ LB are key players who did NOT play last week & appear unlikey to play here. You can also add Tambi Hali to the mix of layers who may not play. The Oakland defense continues to fly under the radar with the Oakland offense struggling and receiving the attention. Hopefully OAK goes with Brooks(they did) as Walter has improved but still makes to many mistakes and he is right the OAK game plan is horrendous. Oak has 5 straight with the opposition scoring 17 or less. To me this is clearly a warm up game for Green and KC with Denver on deck on Thanksgiving. Naturally they are playing to win but I think going in versus a weak opponent they are looking to answer some questions rather then dismantle a struggling team. Really like the UNDER here @ 36 /36.5 would like to play this. What concerns me is this total in recent year shas been in the 50's and even a 60. By the way Green is a walking target IMO.
~ Atl @ Balt - With Vick playing here we have almost a carbon copy of last weeks game in Tenny with Young @ QB. Suddenly the ATL offense is struggling and the defense continues to lose key contributors as Kearney is now out for the season follwoing injuries to Webster and Mathis is the secondary previously. Balt did play @ Tenny w/o Ray Lewis so hopefully he returns but he just had blood drained from his back or something. Teams gaining 2.8 ypc against the Ravens on the ground in Baltimore doesnt bode well for ATL especially with a dinged up OL. One note is ATL is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year. Somewhat scared of Vick in a DOG role and ray Lewis not playing. Along with the line move concerning me . Thankfully I was able to play +4 last nite and buy -3 this morning as th Ravens are -3.5 with ++vig now. Would say the OVER is the play here but waiting till halftime.
~ Pitt @ Cle - Personally I think since Maurice Carthon was fired / resigned this team has grown up. They have always played well enough defensively to keep them in games but they hang all game with SD but couldnt scored TDs instead setting for FG's. They jumped on ATL and cruised. As some Browns fans have pointed out with a young offense they are willing to sit on leads and just get conservative( not to mention 0 , 13 , and 6 last few at home vs Pitt). From what have read last years 41-0 drubbing left a sour taste in the mouthes of CLE players. I wont say revenge but motivated is probably the proper word. Pitt is banged up in the secondary with 3 key players leaving with concussions last week. Pitt was very close to losing that game last week. They have not won a road game (0-4) and worse is Fast Willie Parker and the boyz manage just 58 yd pergame on the road which has been Clevs weakness. The Browns injury list is littered with key players probably pulling a page from NE. One concern is Droughns avaliability since there is not much proven depth at RB. At home Cle has allowed 19 , 15 , 17 and 13 which always makes them a live dog. So pretty sure with Pitt off a less then impressive home game , winless on the road struggling to establish running game which leaves the door open to Big Ben forcing passes, we shall see a BROWNS play here.. really wanted to play the over here but the total has dropped and its appears weather is the reason...37 loooks so juicy but its a pass.
-Minny @ Miami - Historically Miami is a POOR fav. How poor you ask? Well they are 6-18 ATS L24 as chalk and 6-20 ATS L26 at home. Miami is 2-14 ATS L16 at home as a favorite. How bout 1-12 ATS L 13 at home versus teams with a losing record. The Vikes though are 6-19 L25 ATS on grass. However its very key IMO that Minnesota is in the role of DOG after there recent struggles. Miami lost Traylor and Jeno James two key players last week plus Ronnie Brown says he less then 100 playing with a strained groin...Now Minny also has a who's who injury list with chester Taylor , Fred Smoot , Pat Willaims , all word OL Hutchinhson and Birk all apearing on it. Thats why I remain cautious. However one key returnee is Marcus Robinson as I have said in recent weeks he is very important to the offense since he is there deep threat. Basically we have very identical teams here with the difference being that Miami gets to play at home. Now looking at the past data playing at HOME has not been an advantage for them. They lost tough road games @ SF and @ Buff cause the offense couldnt do anything but was able to win @ Wash and @ Seattle cause the offense made enough plays. basically this Miami D has carried them in wins over CHi and KC now with key injuries I think Miami doesnt have the wiggle room to escape here. Lets not forget that Joey Harrington is no stranger to playing against Minnesota. In fact he has 6 career starts versus them and is 0-6!! To his credit he has had a couple of good games againstthem and his DET team was never blown out but he has a 7TD to 12 INT ratio and that is key IMO. He completed 57% of his passes in those games and avg 6.06 yds per attempt..basically average to slightily below average. Clearly Culpepper would have great incentive to play well in this game but sadly he is injured.
~ SD @ Denver- The Cahrgers defense is missing so many key players and WR's Parker and Floyd are questionable. Some stats 4 you :
LT @ Denver
2001 Lost 26-16 14c 75yds
2002 Lost 26-9 14c 48yds
2003 Lost 37-8 8c 29yds
2004 Lost 23-13 22c 60yds
2005 Lost 20-17 19c 52 yds
10 career games just two 100 yd games but did have 220yds in SD once. Has 8 career TDS vs Den but those came in 4 of the 10 games and just two away both in 2005 . With only 1 game his 1st @ Den where he avg 4 yds or better per carry. In LT's 10 career games SD is 3-7 vs Denver and those are the only 3 times SD has managed 20 or more points vs Denver...Gates has also been largely ineffective with just 16c for 164 yds in 4 games but 3 had less then 31 yards receiving. Plummer is 5-1 as a Bronco vs SD..... 248 , 294 and 253 yds vs SD at home with 5tds and 2 Ints. believe Marty is 3-14 as well in Denver going back to his KC days....
Working on the rest.......
NBA Thoughts on Wednesday Nov . 15th
Plays ~
Cavs -11.5 -110 (4x) WIN
Under 105 -108 1st Half Orlando (4x) WIN
Under 194 -110 Indiana (5x) LOSS
Under 197.5 -105 NJN (3x) WIN
Knicks +3.5 -110 (3x) +135 ML (1x) WIN(s)
Under 189 -110 Det (5x) LOSS
Pistons -7.5 -111 (3x) LOSS
Spurs -11.5 -108 (3x) Spurs -11 -110 (1x)LOSS
Under 188.5 Spurs (7x) WIN
Kings -8 -110 (5x)
Philly +4.5 -105 (5x) ML +175 (1.5x)
ML Parlay (6x) pays 6.13 Loss
Kings -385 , SPurs -900 , Pistons -340 , Cavs -865
1st halfs-
Over 90.5 -122 Cavs (1.5x) Win
Over 103.5 Wiz -118 (1.5x) Loss
Det -4 -113 (1.5x) Loss
2nd half
Magic ML -205 (2x) WIN
-Have this game middle Orl -3 and Nuggets +5.5 as well....
Over 106.5 -114 Wiz (1x) LOSS
Boston ML +114 (2x) WIN
Under 99 -111 NJ (2x) WIN
Det -8 -105 (1x) WIN
Over 94 -115 SA (3x) WIN
-hate the way the 1st H ended way to much offense
Under 91 -102 Sac(2x)
NCAAB -(real slow start this season)
Vandy -1 -111 (4x) Loss
BYU +12.5 -110 (3x)
Team Totals
Comments to follow..
Portland @ Cleveland - The Cavs have owned portland last few meetings. Right now the offense in Portland is Zach Randolph there really isnt much of a second option. This leds to alot of teams pulling away in the 2nd Half. Cavs righted the ship in NY after a sloppy game vs Boston. Although CLE has been up and down this year you would expect a better effort and focus after the last home game here. Blazers played in Minny last nite and were blown out from the start. Damon Jones finally got on track in NY and hopefully that continues. Who will cover King James? Thinking 105 -90 game. Cavs must hit there FT's!!
Denver @ Orl - With all the talk on ORL even I saw value last nite when it was -3 -110. After playing it I figured we see -3.5 maybe -4 but no way -5. Really shows how FLAT DENVER is expected to be . To be honest I like ORL to win but would NEVER lay this spread so I will middle my -3 with +5.5. Orla wants to play half court basketball and while they have scored alot at home how long can they shot 54 %? They dont even average 70 shots per game at home. Denver is Anthony and some inconsistent players on offense in JR Smith , AndreMiller , Lil Earl Boykins and Marcus Camby. Just expect a much slower pace then expected cause thats ORL style.
Ind @ Bos - Had liked BOS cause of how well they play vs IND at home winning 7 of 10. Now this is the highest total in 10 meetings bewteen teh clubs many which played UNDER . Underdog is 12-2 ATS and UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings.
Milw @ NJN - I really want to play NJ here who is playing 4th in 6 nites against Bucks on b to b. Villaneuva is OUT and this team lacks depth to begin with especially offensively. With RJ out the NJ defense suffered vs Seattle. Would love to take NJ here but hate fading teams missing stars only means more shots for Redd....
Wash @ NYK- Wiz dont play much defense and NY doesnt either. How NY is the dog. Wiz could light it up from 3 point land since NY cant seem to defend the long ball. However WAS does lack a post presence and this should be extremely helpful to NYK defensively. I think they finally get that home win here. There bench is playing very well it just need Marbury to come out of his shell which Steve Francis supposely spoke to Starbury about.
NO @ Det - Peja get sback on the court quickly after his career performance. I am sure that makes him hapy. However with West OUT the offense doesnt have much to speak of especially playing in DET....and Chandler is also out
Char @ SA - I think Bobcats struggle to score here. Its well known how poor SA is ATS on back to backs but thats why this line is only -12 IMO. SA has handled Charlotte in the past and both are off back to backs. This has 99-84 written on it
Memphis @ Sac - Right now grizz hitting just 39% away from the field and Sac allwoing slightly better then 40%! Hard to believe Memphis can crack 85 points and tehy have been handled there last 2 road games until they forged huge 4th quarter comebacks...
Philly @ Seattle - The Sonics defied odds winning ATS in all 5 games on a East Coast trip. They have just the 1 day off from that week long trip and have been a busy team. Phillyhasnt played since Sunday and has a history of playing well in Seattle going 5-0 ATS and 401 SU last 5 years. Think this is a tough spot for Seattle and Philly being rested certainly helps.
Plays ~
Cavs -11.5 -110 (4x) WIN
Under 105 -108 1st Half Orlando (4x) WIN
Under 194 -110 Indiana (5x) LOSS
Under 197.5 -105 NJN (3x) WIN
Knicks +3.5 -110 (3x) +135 ML (1x) WIN(s)
Under 189 -110 Det (5x) LOSS
Pistons -7.5 -111 (3x) LOSS
Spurs -11.5 -108 (3x) Spurs -11 -110 (1x)LOSS
Under 188.5 Spurs (7x) WIN
Kings -8 -110 (5x)
Philly +4.5 -105 (5x) ML +175 (1.5x)
ML Parlay (6x) pays 6.13 Loss
Kings -385 , SPurs -900 , Pistons -340 , Cavs -865
1st halfs-
Over 90.5 -122 Cavs (1.5x) Win
Over 103.5 Wiz -118 (1.5x) Loss
Det -4 -113 (1.5x) Loss
2nd half
Magic ML -205 (2x) WIN
-Have this game middle Orl -3 and Nuggets +5.5 as well....
Over 106.5 -114 Wiz (1x) LOSS
Boston ML +114 (2x) WIN
Under 99 -111 NJ (2x) WIN
Det -8 -105 (1x) WIN
Over 94 -115 SA (3x) WIN
-hate the way the 1st H ended way to much offense
Under 91 -102 Sac(2x)
NCAAB -(real slow start this season)
Vandy -1 -111 (4x) Loss
BYU +12.5 -110 (3x)
Team Totals
NYK over 104.5 -115 (2x)Loss
Philly over 102.5 -112 (2.5x)
Under 88 -104 Char (1x) Loss
Over 99.5 -118 cavs (1x)Win
Under 90 -105 NO (1x)Loss
Over 93 -108 Kings (1x) Win
Under 84.5 Mem -109(1x) Loss
Comments to follow..
Portland @ Cleveland - The Cavs have owned portland last few meetings. Right now the offense in Portland is Zach Randolph there really isnt much of a second option. This leds to alot of teams pulling away in the 2nd Half. Cavs righted the ship in NY after a sloppy game vs Boston. Although CLE has been up and down this year you would expect a better effort and focus after the last home game here. Blazers played in Minny last nite and were blown out from the start. Damon Jones finally got on track in NY and hopefully that continues. Who will cover King James? Thinking 105 -90 game. Cavs must hit there FT's!!
Denver @ Orl - With all the talk on ORL even I saw value last nite when it was -3 -110. After playing it I figured we see -3.5 maybe -4 but no way -5. Really shows how FLAT DENVER is expected to be . To be honest I like ORL to win but would NEVER lay this spread so I will middle my -3 with +5.5. Orla wants to play half court basketball and while they have scored alot at home how long can they shot 54 %? They dont even average 70 shots per game at home. Denver is Anthony and some inconsistent players on offense in JR Smith , AndreMiller , Lil Earl Boykins and Marcus Camby. Just expect a much slower pace then expected cause thats ORL style.
Ind @ Bos - Had liked BOS cause of how well they play vs IND at home winning 7 of 10. Now this is the highest total in 10 meetings bewteen teh clubs many which played UNDER . Underdog is 12-2 ATS and UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings.
Milw @ NJN - I really want to play NJ here who is playing 4th in 6 nites against Bucks on b to b. Villaneuva is OUT and this team lacks depth to begin with especially offensively. With RJ out the NJ defense suffered vs Seattle. Would love to take NJ here but hate fading teams missing stars only means more shots for Redd....
Wash @ NYK- Wiz dont play much defense and NY doesnt either. How NY is the dog. Wiz could light it up from 3 point land since NY cant seem to defend the long ball. However WAS does lack a post presence and this should be extremely helpful to NYK defensively. I think they finally get that home win here. There bench is playing very well it just need Marbury to come out of his shell which Steve Francis supposely spoke to Starbury about.
NO @ Det - Peja get sback on the court quickly after his career performance. I am sure that makes him hapy. However with West OUT the offense doesnt have much to speak of especially playing in DET....and Chandler is also out
Char @ SA - I think Bobcats struggle to score here. Its well known how poor SA is ATS on back to backs but thats why this line is only -12 IMO. SA has handled Charlotte in the past and both are off back to backs. This has 99-84 written on it
Memphis @ Sac - Right now grizz hitting just 39% away from the field and Sac allwoing slightly better then 40%! Hard to believe Memphis can crack 85 points and tehy have been handled there last 2 road games until they forged huge 4th quarter comebacks...
Philly @ Seattle - The Sonics defied odds winning ATS in all 5 games on a East Coast trip. They have just the 1 day off from that week long trip and have been a busy team. Phillyhasnt played since Sunday and has a history of playing well in Seattle going 5-0 ATS and 401 SU last 5 years. Think this is a tough spot for Seattle and Philly being rested certainly helps.
College Foootball This Week
Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)
Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)
Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)
Saturday (Noon)
Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x) Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x) Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss
Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.
2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win
1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)
2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss
Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win
2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss
3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)
3:30 Pm
Leans -
USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML
Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)
Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.
-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.
-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.
-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.
-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.
Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..
- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..
- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.
- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.
- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.
-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...
- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.
-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.
- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...
-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..
-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...
- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...
-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.
-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...
-Duke @ GT - who cares
-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.
- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.
- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.
- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )
- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..
- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis
-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...
-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest
- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??
- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.
- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...
- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....
- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.
- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....
- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.
_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them
-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here
- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....
- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory
Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)
Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)
Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)
Saturday (Noon)
Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x) Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x) Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss
Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.
2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win
1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)
2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss
Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win
2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss
3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)
3:30 Pm
Over Oregon 44.5 -110 (3x) Win
Kansas ML -125 (7x) Win
SDST +18 -11(3x) +840 ML (1/4x) Loss
Auburn ML -119 (3x) Win
New Mex +27.5 -110 (3x) Win
THEE GAME - Ohio State ML -250 (3x) Ohio State -6 -120 (5x) Win /Loss
4Pm
UNLV +10 -105 (3x) , +9 -110 (2x) ML +350 (1/2x) Win
Over 56-105 Marshall (3x) Win
Idaho +10 -106 (3x) ML +350 (1/2x)Loss
7Pm
VT -105 (2x) & +100 ML (8x) WIN- After much thought here WF is getting to much praise. yes they have played above expectations but did so as a dog. This team was +17 at home vs Clemson now they are favored vs VT who won @ Miami as chalk? FSU struggling today vs WMU sp[eaks volume IMO....just like Maryland today the fairy tale ends as WF SHOULD NOT be less then +3 here
Under 38.5 -109 Wake (4x) Win
Under 55 -105 Louisville (4x) Win
Under 40 -105 Rutgers (4x) Loss (2pt conversion!!!)
Cincy +7.5 -120 (3x) Win
Over 41.5 LSU (3x) Win
Under 45 -105 UAB (3x) PUSH
Under 74 -107 Hawaii (3x)
SJST +24.5 +101 (3x)
ASU -4 -110 (3x)Loss
Leans -
USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML
Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)
Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.
-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.
-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.
-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.
-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.
Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..
- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..
- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.
- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.
- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.
-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...
- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.
-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.
- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...
-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..
-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...
- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...
-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.
-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...
-Duke @ GT - who cares
-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.
- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.
- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.
- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )
- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..
- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis
-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...
-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest
- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??
- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.
- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...
- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....
- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.
- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....
- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.
_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them
-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here
- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....
- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts NBA & NCAAF -
College Football -
Ball State +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 56 -110 Toledo (5x)
NBA-
Bucks ML +105 (5x)
Under 199.5 -110 Miami (5x)
Nuggets +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 193.5 -105 Charlotte (5x)
Bobcats 1st Half +4 -102 (2x) ML +183 (1x)
Timberwolves -8 -110 (7x)
Over 88.5 -102 Portand 1st H (2x)
Over 189.5 -102 Dallas (7x) Over 95.5 -102 1st H (2x)
Rockets ML -110 (5x)
Under 198 -105 Utah (3x)
LAC ML -113 1st Half (3x)
Over 209 -105 Golden State (8x)
ML Parlay
Warriors -241 , Mavs -172 , Wolves -353 (5x)
NCAAB -
New Orleans +3.5 -107 (3x)
Det U +6 -106 1st H (6x) ML +300 1st H (1x) game ML +570 (1x) +12 -110 (2x)
Probbaly wont be around till late tonite
College Football -
Ball State +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 56 -110 Toledo (5x)
NBA-
Bucks ML +105 (5x)
Under 199.5 -110 Miami (5x)
Nuggets +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 193.5 -105 Charlotte (5x)
Bobcats 1st Half +4 -102 (2x) ML +183 (1x)
Timberwolves -8 -110 (7x)
Over 88.5 -102 Portand 1st H (2x)
Over 189.5 -102 Dallas (7x) Over 95.5 -102 1st H (2x)
Rockets ML -110 (5x)
Under 198 -105 Utah (3x)
LAC ML -113 1st Half (3x)
Over 209 -105 Golden State (8x)
ML Parlay
Warriors -241 , Mavs -172 , Wolves -353 (5x)
NCAAB -
New Orleans +3.5 -107 (3x)
Det U +6 -106 1st H (6x) ML +300 1st H (1x) game ML +570 (1x) +12 -110 (2x)
Probbaly wont be around till late tonite
Monday, November 13, 2006
Monday , November 13th NBA & NFL Thoughts
Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.
NBA -
Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00
Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)
Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00
NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)
NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)
Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.
Play: Under 198 Boston
~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.
Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210
~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.
Play : NJN & lean over
NFL - TB @ CAR
All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.
TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.
Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now
Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.
NBA -
Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00
Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)
Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00
NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)
NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)
Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.
Play: Under 198 Boston
~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.
Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210
~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.
Play : NJN & lean over
NFL - TB @ CAR
All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.
TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.
Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now
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