NFL / CBB

Under 61 -119 WV 1st H (4x)

Its late .....

Det +3 -114 (8x) & ML +136 (2x)
Under 40.5-105 (3x)


Again I understand Miami is findings ways to win but road chalk? This team has won just 4 games and three came by FGs. The other in Chicago was as +13 pt dog and I dont think many expected that to happen or the 6 turnovers. In the following weeks we the betting public still did not believe in Miami. We didnt back them vs KC or Minny at home. However they managed 3 and 4 pt wins. I wouldnt say they beat there opponents as much as there opponents beat themselves. Just 1 offensive TD in both and trailed Minny early 4th quarter. Somehow they manged to get 2 turnovers near midfield and go the distance.

Previously the DEF had lost Keith Traylor with Big Daddy Dan Wilkinson stepping in. Now CB Will Allen is questionable and if you saw there nickel back play in New Jersey you would be concerned about that. Plus backup Traves Tillman is done for the the year and there depth is now an issu eon defense.

Then we have the Harrington factor. He admitted he was uncomfortable playing in DET as a Lion now imagine the difference! He clearly has motivation but I have to question his toughness . In fact this is the 1st time in his career he managed 3 consecutive wins in this case it was the defense that did so IMO...6 turnovers in CHI , holding KC to 10 points and 2 defensive 2nd H scores vs Minny. Now that defense is getting thin.Oh and Ronnie Brown is dealing with a sore groin manged 12 carries for 2 yards.

SO while the DET run defense wouldbe a concern that might be negetated if Ronnie is less then100% especially since there OL isnt exactly playing well. Now DET has a big injury on offense as Kevin Jones is OUT but Arlene Harris is very capable. The former Ram (remember Martz is the OC)is not well known but can do some things and Avion Cason will be in the mix. Clearly the offense goes on Kitna shoulders though now. Kitna has played well but killed himself with costly turnovers. The late fourth Q turnovers in Minny blowing a hug elead. Last week he they got te ball on Zonas 13 and he threw a pick taking points of the board. In the 2nd H alf they had only 3 possessions.They managed a long drive for a FG , a long drive that resulted in Hanson missing a makebale FG and a TD. They ran 37 plays for 201 yards!

basically DET made some mistakes on the road they couldnt afford. The int took off 3 or 7 points and the FG miss nother 3 they only lost by 7. The previous week Kitna was picked down 6 from SF 20 in the final minutes.. The week before they smoked ATL at home...

With the turnover in staff you cant think Harrington has any advantages in that way. Also the leader ( at least IMO ) of the defense All Pro Dre Bly spoke out last year as to how Harrington was killing them. With a new regime in DET I expect them to place alot of significance oon winning a national televised Thanksgiving day Game against a former QB.The Lions past 3 home games they have allowed 14-19 pts and dont see why that would change here . Especially since the crowd will try to make Harringtons comeback miserable.

Then factor ronnie Browns health? with the defense being banged up losing Wil ALlen is huge here as Goodman just didnt look good when the other CB got dinged up in NJ.While DET has ad a bad year one thing I see is every game they appear to be in position to do something to win a game. Finally here I think it worksout for them. The Vikes are in freefall and the last line showed Miami and Minny were basically equal. When Minny was playing well they were probably 3.5 pts stronger then DET. That means when Minny traveled to Det it would have been a PK. I think bewteenn Minny slide and loss of Rogers nd KJ for DET it still holds the same strength...So this line should be anywhere from PK to -1.5 nothing more. Remember ATL flying high coming into DET and what happened?

Mike Williams is active and he will either be useless or use that chip on his shoulder to distinguish himself if given a chnace...only time will tell...I see DET winning SU on a late FG think Lions 18-17 but DET wins nonetheless.....cant believe that Miami is -6 on a neutral field versus DET.

Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving. Clearly we have 2 more games to speak about...Will say Dallas & TB is oneof those games I have flipped back and forth on. Right now riding Dallas. The short week is more damaging to TB and I think DAL is rejuvanated and looking to make a statement that they are for real. There D certainly is and if Bolden cant play corner tmrw...oh boy!! Hate this is TB 1st Turkey Day game but look at there road games...

The lat egame is TOUGH as hell but I think DEN should be favored so leaning that way & Under actually!

Have Dallas 11 -104 (5x) 2nd H ML -236 (3x) -4 -111(1x)
Under 39 -110 (1x)
Under 14.5 TB -120 team (2.5)


Denver +1 +113 (8x)Under 40 -110 (3x) ML -110 (2x) Den

One of the toughest games on the board. This opened at Den -3 but was quickly bet to -1 then IMO when TG was likely to play it flipped to +1. I could be wrong on that it just seemed that way. Now it seems IMO that Pinnacle has decided to take a side. I say that cause no book has this game @ -1 still and they do with high vig. This seems to be something they do. Remember last week how they left Buff at -1 -124 and DEN -1 -124 for along time when all other boooks moved to -2.5..I do

Besides that stuff. This game is walking a fine line. Is the fact DEN collapsed a positive or negative on Sunday??? No way to say for sure before kick..Lets rememebr they did led 24-7 and were keeping SDs offense in check. Is the fact Plummer could be benched a positive or neg? Does it inspire him? Personally I dont see Jake the Snake as the sole problem. We talked about the total lack of mental awareness on everyone involved on Sunday. Hopefully this inspired teh coaching staff just as much as the players. The games were Tatum Bell has played sparingly or not at all seems to be the ones they struggled in. This DEN team with Plummer still won at NE a and at Pitt rather convicingly. Tatum was not the featured back in week 1 and they lost @ STL , he played only a half versus Indy and guess what the lead at half , he didnt play vs SD , and played sparingly @ Oak. So while the other back have been capable they seem to be lacking something w/o Tatum...just got word Tatum is inactive though...it wil be Nash and M.Bell. Not a negative but the not positive I was looking for..


If KC came in playing well I would understand the excitement about Greens return but they havent played well past 2 weeks IMO. You could chalk up last week to Edwards deciding to just hand the ball off as Green was retro on that last drive. Still just 27 pts past 2 weeks. TG will play but can he 100% and he hasnt done much in this series anyway...Its all about LJ here. While he is a BEAST I was rather impressive with how they shutdown the NE duo earlier in the season. They also contained stud backs Willie Parker and Stephen Jackson on the road. Personally I believe DEN like NE has played better away this season. Is Plummer more relaxed away? Cant say ...This is Arrowhead though....Jake is 0-3 and Denver jsut 1-4 SU and a home owned series. However DEN has losses of 1 , 3 , and 4 in KC in those past 5..

So if LJ is the offense then the fact DEN allows 3.3 YPC on the ground away very promising for the defense. They have a shutdown corner in Champ and seem to have found a wayto keep TG from being a factor recently. TG just 11 for 115 past 4 games and only game with more then 50yds receiveing in past 9 meetings (73 yds). You have to still wonder about the KC OL which has not played well and a more mobile Huard aided the line.On paper it appears to me though it has struggled DEN can keep this up and down KC offense in check....they have only managed more the 17 pts in half there games this year...I cant be impressed with any of the KC home games defensively other then SF...what have they done really??I see a 20-17 Denver win here in what is always a battle. The Denver defense is the key and DEN has the FG kicking edge with Elam. The Broncos are down and being doubted and so is Jake this is the epitemy of buying LOW...

Also check the lasttime DENVER lost 2 straight games....hasnt happend thos year or last year. E
dwards migh tb efoolish enough to think a predicatble offense can get it done....