Monday Night Football

I have to say I love to read. Not sure how many read me . Anyway I do spend some time reading sports message boards and have to say I get a great laugh. So many people wagering on sports have no clue. They don't ever understand what goes into putting out a point spread. I don't mean to come off as arrogant but why do people constantly talk about things they don't know about like they re authorities?? Like Pittsburgh is a trap last nite. How is Pitt a trap ? How many times has Denver been a home dog ? Sure they looked( key phrase..looked as in perceived vs reality) like crap but is that a true indication of there team? Thats why the term VALUE in Sports wagering is misunderstood. Value isnt about getting certain odds better then the actually percentage chance of something winning. Its about situational picking spots where you can be ahead of the curve as in sports linesmakers adjusting lines. Remember I traded the real Yield Curve. You want to buy when things are oversold( sell when overbought) but you dont fight the market (EVER!!!). Meaning things work in extremes. Something may look cheap but whats to keep it from getting cheaper??( attention house buyers) How do you know?? Market sentiment . Sometimes sentiment changes to quickly like a team playing one good game or one bad game and everything is alright or fucked again. Shit happens to everyone. A bad game , a bad day at the plate , on the mound , etc...the key is making an educated guess if it was just that or an indicator of what is to come. There are no tricks or traps. Just people who think they are smarter then they really are. We all should be learning new things everyday !! This isn't really a specific reference to that game but a general comment. Remember why I liked Utah State so much on Saturday?? Value in sports betting has no specific numerical values. Its about exploiting a situation when the market has adjusted incorrectly or not quick enough. Think in baseball terms . You see a team like say the Pirates reel of a nice 7 game win streak. During that streak they may always be dogs. Actually just look at what Colorado has done. Why cause the market still sees the Rockies fighting to get to the playoffs barely hovering above 500 , the one who suffered the long losing streak, etc. Not the team on the field today which has played a certain way for 30 games. This creates value. Boston -170 last nite value. Not cause of price but intangibles. Enough with this . Feel free to email me or comment on the subject. Pretty soon they will be call me A.D( All Day) for my rants.


However if you actually follow the NFL the Steelers played some shit teams and its only true road contest was @ Arizona where they lost and struggled on offense. I thought Denver was supposed to be a good team this season according to the preseason chatter. Oh wait Denver got smoked at home by SD. Yes , the Broncos had sucked versus the run and underperformed all season. How many times were they dogs though? Home dogs ? Is Pitt the better team ? Clearly. Are they so much better they can just walk into a better then average teams HOUSE and win. Clearly not cause they have stumbled twice vs mediocre squads ARI and DEN. This rant could go on and on but I'll end it here. Spreads are a tool. Would you say Jax and pitt very equal strength wise? One was -3.5 the other +3.5 in the same venue. You should never say to yourself I think so and so team will win so I think they can cover 4 points because its basically the same thing. NEVER ! ! !


You should also realize the BOOKS are not getting killed with the Patriots great run. Despite covering every spread. For what ever reason the PATS have never been a public team despite ridiculous success. You look at every PAts game and tell how the books got killed. You think in week 1 everyone lined up to play the Pats -6.5 or Jets +6.5 at home? You didn't see the Dolphins line go down to 15.5 yesterday? Isn't that a indication more Miami money was coming in? I saw the same thing with the Browns game at home 16.5 all week then 15.5 on game day. You think they got killed with the Boys catching 5 at home? I know most people thought -16.5 was to much to lay to Buffalo..what about -3.5 vs SD...

Show me the game where there was so much money on NE the books were overwhelmed and moved the spread higher in there favor on game day? That's why books win. People don't know what they are talking about. While NE has been awesome. Lets remember there division absolutely sucks as has most of there competition. What you have to understand is Sir Bill is a genius because he knows football BUT he knows how turn his players into robots. The Pats NEVER beat themselves and rarely make mistakes. That's there key. So when people keep saying the spread is to high and gets cheaper on game day. look for more NE covers....there missing the point. Well oiled machine versus bad teams = Blowout. I'll be the first to say I thought it was alot of points yesterday but I also said NE had to be up 4 TDS to be comfortable. That's exactly what happened. What does that mean for this week...I don't know yet but WASH is a step up in competition from Buffalo , NYJ , Miami but its clear NE is on a mission.

Indy @ Jags

The more I think about this game I see a similiarity. Isnt this game just a repeat of last nite? How so ? Well Indy played w/o 3 starters (key starters) at home vs TB laying what most thought was to many points (-10)and rolled. Then they had a BYE and got healthy now traveling. Didnt Pitt play w/o 3 starters and suprisingly shut down the Seahawks 21-0. Then went on a BYE and got healthy. Pitt got inflated and built up laying to many points in Denver a team who underperformed. Now Indy off that fresh BYE and some home drubbings is laying to many points on the road ....crazy if you ask me.......

Real interested to know if Marvin Harrison will play tonite. Some off the top of my head comments. First is the Colts have not run the ball well in its two road games against Tenny and Houston. The Jags really are a better version of the Titans. Addai has 42c 153 yds but his long run is 9 yards!!!!!! We all know how well the Jags run unit has been since the opener. The Jags weakness is its pass defense. Last 3 weeks 269 yds allowed through the air (7.4 ypa) and 208 yards at home (7.1ypa). On the flip side Drew is getting HOT so to speak with back to back games where he busted free for a 50 + yard TD run. I don't buy into the Colts run defense being that improved. First cause they lost Booger MacFarland before the season started then early on lost Rob Morris. Bob Sanders missed last week and is always banged up. The Jags will run the ball here. Okay so maybe not 350 yards like last year but they will run for better then 4 YPC.

Something else that stands out is how well the JAGS offense has moved the ball but how many times it stumbled when it came to putting up points. You could make a case for them routinely leaving 10 points a game on the sideline. Even Indy hasnt been as crisp on the road this season offensively.

Basically my early feel is this another situation where a team plays at home like its there SUPER BOWL. Only 3rd ever MNF game for Jacksonville. The ugly shutout vs Pitt and later dismantling off a struggling NYG team. The Jags defense has also benefited from sloppy offenses as well. They should have allowed moe points. Neither team has played a good opponent really. The Jags facing a bounce teams struggling in KC & Den and Indy playing overrated teams like TB , Den , NO.

At this time looking at the Jags. Remember how MNF and probably most Primetime NFL games work. The spread doesnt matter except when its double digits. So pick the winner in your head. The fav just lay the points. The dog just take the ML. get creative and play the fav minus the points and the dog on the ML and hope to scalp a few bucks.

Still researching this game ( Jags ML , +3.5 and Over 44.5). Simply dont see why Indy is favored in Jacksonville. I think a PKem game is more accurate line. The biggest number Indy was all season -10 vs Denver at home. Well Jax went to Denver and beat them pretty solid. I cant see jags being more then 7 / 8 if they played @ RCA Dome......

1- Looking for an accurate report on the weather.
2- Marvin Harrison's status. If he cannot got its a huge loss. Indy hasnt had a 3rd WR really using Dallas Clark in that role. With the passing game such a key I dont think they can afford not to have him. Moorehead and Gonzalez havent shown me much yet. The 3 WR is always what made Indys pass attack ridiculous factored in with a good pass catching TE. Funny isnt this exactly what NE has ? Moss and Stallworth with Welker playing the role of Brandon Stokely..