Thursday, October 25, 2007

Plays tonite :

CFB

VaTech -2.5 (buy 1/2)
New Mexico -6 (buy 1/2)
Under 21 1st H VaTech (think we could see VaTech 7-3 @ Half)

Havent talked about NM but like them the most of the two. Just dont like AF defense on the road. There is a reason why they are a DOG in almost game. While they have been overing situational things couldnt have ben better prior to this matchup...I think NM wins 31-17 or better....

Leaning Over 47 NM

NHL :
No plays of yet. I was leaning towards the Grand Salami UNDER. I decided to wait and see how the early games went with the thought in mind of possibly gettinvolved with the 10 and 10:30 starts..Did lean towards Over 6 with Philly but the vig sucked..Like EDM +125 as well

Played Under 5.5 Kings / Dallas Even

MLB:

Under 10 even Col
Have to pass I think on the COL series cause they dropped it +325..MFers!! Now its almost better to just play the Rocks tonite..


Thinking about Col for the series with a small play. I see +370 now it probably is better elsewhere. For tonite prefer the UNDER 10 if anything. As I said COL hit the ball well at times last nite but in general they just are not swinging it enough where I see 5 + runs. Schilling once of my fav SP is definetly a proven big game SP even with lesser stuff. Just look at the stretch run in Sept @ Fenway. Very solid work regardless of W/L . Last nite there was a ton of value in BOS. However being small time if your not laying at least 200 (risking 450 or so) its not worth it. I cant lay -200 on Boston here. People are writing Col off when they walked into a buzzsaw. They long layoffs scare me for Col SP....thats what is keeping me off for the moment

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike its good to see you are back, I always followed you on CTG and your thoughts were always appreciated. I wish I had the dedication and knowledge to be as successful as you in this business. I somehow lost the value of money along the way since I started sports betting and this has sent me on an awful spiral. Been struggling just to pick a winner and have almost given up, any advice on how to get back on track?
Kevin McCarthy
Kmacc17@yahoo.com
(Kmacc)

SportsNut {Mike} said...

What's up KMacc ! Glad you found me. Next free moment I get I have to get back in the CTG mix. Great people over there.

This is a very hard thing to be successful at. I really don't know how or what makes me successful persay. You can lift weights everyday and not be the biggest guy in the gym. So it's more then just hard work. I know one sport real well and thats baseball. The other sports I dont feel like I have a higher understanding then most . Dedication comes from the enjoyment in analyzing data , but partly from having OCD and to much free time. Everyone has ups and downs. Personally for me I have some stress related issues and concentration issues. I have to be honest with myself when these things are affecting my judgement and decision making. A clear head is so important. What I am getting it as I think alot of my success is a gift. Same goes for my success as a trader.

So what do I recommend to get back on track? First dont beat yourself up at the fact you lost the value of money . Thats very common to me. That's what happens when your NOT dealing with cash in hand. It's the same thing that happens to people trading equities , playing casino games with chips , betting online or through a local bookie. It's human nature. Its all PAPER losses and gains. The emotional aspect of having that money in your hand gets lost. It feels pretty good to have a thousand bucks in your hand. How easy is it over a day not even trying to butwager more then a 1000??

Now how do we change it . I think 1st you have to look yourself in the mirror and ask what kind of person you are. I know I have no trouble being a GRINDER taking little bits at a time. Some people are always looking to hit it rich. So with that you have to develop a way to bet the same way up or down. Now if your going well I do think its wise to press your bets but in a logical manner. Now after you have begun to brainwash yourself ask yourself this. Everytime you place a bet if you had the cash in hand would you place it for the same size. For instance if your betting 100 per play and making numerous plays. Would you walk up to a sportsbook and wager the same amounts?? I think most people would say NO.

So hopefully this can sort of get you on the path to finding a respect for money again. I have watched many people around me with really no money lose tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars they didnt have. This is the trap of gambling. Paper losses again!

I think the easiest way to get over any cold streak is to stop and take timeoff. Your probably not losing cause you dont know what your doing. Your losing cause your decision making process is fouled up and everything keeps carrying over day after day. I try to take time off and come back even not knowing whats going on to te same depth and degree but hitting at a higher rate. How long you stay away completely is up to you.