Final Thoughts :


If you are playing this game do your homework. The trend has long been if you like DOG play the ML if its less then a TD spread. If you like the fav simply lay the points dont mess with some inflated ML. This game in my opinion will not end with Indy winning by 1,2,or 3 points. Either Jax wins SU likely by 3 points or Colts win by 6 or better. Get some balls and lay the points and take the DOG ML...if you worked it right you could have -3-110 and +150 or better...

So again we have a game that people seem to miss the point. They say the spread is low for Indy. Well that may be the case but in my opinion its still the wrong spread. Truly I would have said it should be Indy -1 or PK which is more likely then a team laying -1 pt. This season we knew Indy had a large turnover of players on defense. Expectations were sort of low in a sense. We had Colts v Saints the Bowl that never was. Colts only 5 point favs. They crush what was supposed to be a good team but we have learned the Saints are not the same team. For that win they get overinflated @ Tenny. Win but no cover despite really outplaying Tenny. So they lay a similiar big number to Houston same outcome. Come back home people see -10 vs Den and TB after unspectular road games. Wow , thats o many points they think. Only problem DEN and TB arent what we thought they are. They are just like NO much worse.So in essence Indy has been cheap at home and due to there success there . They became FAT favs on the road. To pricey for there own good. Now Jax started with what I feel was high expectations despite the shaky QB situation to start. outplay the Titans but manage to lose , look flat vs ATL but manage to win. Then they go play @ Den and @ KC and really beat those teams up except the final scores dont show it cause they left way to many points on the field bewteen settling for FGs , missing FGs , fumbles and Turnover on downs. The Jags are a grinding offense which is the way to go versus a cover two but also have Home Run ability in Maurice Jones Drew . Who has struck with 50 + yard TD runs in consecutive weeks.


Look at the jags at home versus Houston. Opening drive goes 58 yds missed FG , then 28 yd drive fumble at midfield , then 35yd drive and fumble. After that 71 yd TD drive , FG drive , 81yd TD drive , 80yd TD drive , 73yd TD drive. They scored on every possession after the 1st quarter when they should have scored as well. At KC opening drive 77 yds but a short FG , after a TD drive they take it to the KC 30 and you guess miss a FG. Then the 3rd quarter KC buckled down and 3 possessions all punts. They start the 4th quarter with a TD drive , then punt with good field position and another turnover on downs at the KC 29. So maybe 9-13 points more should have been scored. Look at Den . They punt , then 80 yd TD drive, another TD drive , FG drive , FG drive , then fumble on there own 45 yd line , backed up at there own 3 they punt. Then a 10 play 79 yd drive to the Den 1 results in a fumble , next possession start at Den 4 go 3 yards for a FG a penalty took them off the 1yd line .

Offense @ Den : 2 TD drives , 3 FG drives , 2 punts , 2 fumbles
Offense @ KC : FG , TD , FG miss , 3 punts , TD , punt , turnover on downs
Offense vs Hou : FG miss , fumble , fumble , TD , FG , TD , TD, TD

This offense is playing extremely well except it has shot itself in the fooot on more then a few occasions. Conversely I think the Jags defense has been real soft vs the pass. Look at Houston game. Opening drive 78 yds settle for 3 points , next drive 67 yds and a fumble at the 1 !!!! So 145 yards on 17 plays they allowed when it was a game. Then a punt , followed by 2 FG drives , then fumble @ Jax 23 , INT @ Jax 32 and then 89 yd TD drive. This was only a 16-9 game late 3rd quarter and HOU had no probloem moving the ball vs Jax. Schaub 19/31 259 yds with no Andre Johnson and not much of a running game. KC didnt do much but its obvious the Cheifs are all about the run to open up the pass. LJ was shut down at home ! They played keep away @ Den only 42 play srun by DEN but still a solid 265 yards. Cutler 16 of 23 for 222 basically in 3 quarters as they didnt do much last 13 minutes.

So Jags havent even been tested by a good pass offense and they have showed signs of having trouble. Now Indy did struggle some versus Jax. However the Colts offense has started slow past few seasons and the game at RCA was early. The second game was a cluster fuck. They got down big forced to pass easier to defend if you just drop back in coverage still he had 313 yds on 25/50. Now we have new safeties.


I think we see alot of points here if Jags dont self destruct on drives. The Broncos ran on Sanders and the Colts @ RCA. Thats a good indicator. Blwoing out NO early and a pathetic TB run game skew the numbers. Both teams facing there toughest opponents. Who tested the Colts Defense..?? Tenny..come on now ...Houston had no AJ and lost Ahman Green early , TB...

Plays :
Over 44.5 -120
Jags +3.5
Jags ML