Friday Baseball Thoughts

Well last nite the tables finally turned to some degree. After 10 days of bad beats I went on a run. Basically outsid eof the Col - Atl game I hit every single play I made at nite. Started with Boston upsetting Johan Santana in a game which I had Boston ML , Boston +1.5 RL and the under 4.5 runs Twins team total . Kept in ghoing in NY with the Marlins ML , Over 3 Florida and Under 3.5 NYM team totals . then Berks 2 run Hr gave me Houston ML , had SD ML , and Milw ..only needed 1 run in Coors to get the over ...Had Under GT and Under 28.5 GT as well......nice turnaround after Sabathia 's error destroyed me and DET fell asleep nlowing a 3-0 lead.

Okay this Baseball card is MARGINAL IMO-

National League

Under 9 +101 Houston & StL(3x) Pitching Change- No Play

Might seem like a curious play but Hirsch has pitched well past 4 starts and received minimal run support at home in 3 starts(not suprising). Marquis has pitched some solid games against Houston including 2 of his past 3 in Houston. I think Marquis last 6 or 7 away starts have all been quality. The one @ Shea doesnt show it but I was actually there and he just got some bad breaks before tiring in the 6th... He is also pitching for a role in the postseason IMO.

Houston only 248 BAA vs RHP @ Home while STL just .255 BAA away vs RHP

One intriguing angle was Angel Hernandez behind the dish. Early on he was an ovber UMP lately quite the opposite. In his last 10 games behind the dish 8 have gone UNDER. Better is that in those 8 only 1 saw more then 5 runs......

Over 4.5 -101 Mets team Total(2x)

Didnt want to get crazy here w/o seeing the lineup as I have liked the METS ML as well. Botomline is Pedro Astacio is on the hill and while he might want to recapture something from his Mets days his away numbers are POOR. In 6 starts his runs against is 9 +!! His last 3 starts have seen the opposition score 10 runs + and in al 3 he failed to complete 3 innings allowing 20 runs in those starts.


Cubbies -117 (2x)

I will have to admit the line is suprising. However I think there is purpose behind it. The purpose to make you think there is value in Cincy . Truth is the line is a bit off..probably shopuld be closer to a PKem or maybe Chi -110. Not that Cinccy has lost its sparkplug for the year Ryan Freel you have to believe there offense will only go further south . Michalak is PURE major league journeyman and nothing more. Aramis is swinging a hot bat and he might be enough. Cincy .175 L10 vs LHP and Hill has been en fuego ...always be cautious of the rematch though..Looking at team totals Over 4.5 Cubc and Under 4 reds here as well

Brewers -122 (5x) & -1.5 +179(1x) & Under 4 -103 SF team total (3x)

Doug Davis is pitching well of late and continues to pitch well @ Miller Park. The key here is SF really struggles to score against LHP on the road. They have LOST 11 0f 13 away vs a LHP and the 2 wins werewith Matt Cain was on the hill and we know how hot is. Conversley Milw is 24-11 L35 @ Home vs LHP. Now I admit thats misleading to a degree cause Milw traded RH slugger Carlos Lee a few months back. Bottom line we Davis pitching well of late and 10-6 3.84 ERA @ home versus a team who struggles to hit off lefties. Ialso believe in the 17 raod games vs LHP SFG has mustered more then 4 runs on 3 occassions. One was recently in Colorado in a 20-8 loss to a AA SP.

Diamondbacks +168 (1.5units) & +1.5 RL -135 (1.5X)

This was more a play against LAD at the price. Lowe has struggled vs Arizona siince coming to LA. Thi si sprobably true of Vargas as well though. The key is how well VArgas ahs pitched aay lately combined with Nomar and Kent both ailing.

Stayed away from COORS cause I hear it might now or is snowing....Basically might add Over 4.5 Cubbies , Under 4.5 Reds and NYM at some point.

ADDED - Under 9.5 -109 Philly (2x)

American League

Orioles +107 (3x) & -1.5 +210 (unit) value play

Well we have my Carlos SIlva fade in effect when on the road. Now I tip my hat to the guy who has pithced 3 excellent games in arow. Just not sure how a SP who was +110 a few weeks back in Balt(vs Loewen) and got hit real hard who sports a 5-10 away record and dropped 4 straight to his opponent should be favored. Cabrera is a mystery but generally is decent to good at home. With that in mind he has pitched some quality games against Minnesota. The O's have managed to win 4 of 5 , did Melvin Mora wake this team up?? O's spank RH's and hav 20 hits and 11 runs off Silva in 2006. Another tidbit was Silva was taken deep 5 x in his last Camden appearnace while Cabrera has allowed just 5 runs in his past 5 starts to Minny spanning nearly 33 innings.

Under 9.5 -103 baltimore(2x)

This probably looks liek a high scoring affair but with Cabrera's track record at home and vs Minny combined with Silva suddely pitching extremely well...we just might have a pitchers duel !

Blue Jays -142 (2x)

They defetaed John Santana and Big Papi hit 2 Hrs and broke the record.....then they have to fly to Toronto. Bottomline is lilly tends to pitch very well vs Boston who also doesnt happen to hit LHP all that well.

Thats actually it for now:
Looking at KC over 4 team total , LAA -102 and Under 8 -104 Oakland.

Will be adding the Under in Oakland later.

Under Oakland +100 (3x)

GL- NCAA posted in other thread

Screwed in the bottom of the 8th by the twins pen! uhhhhhhhhh