Wednesday Baseball Thoughts

Under 8 -122 Houston & Cincy (5x)

The Rocket returned last week and after a 2 out walk and SB to Utley he decided to IBB Ryan Howard. Well he then lost David Dellucci and with the bases loaded on 3 walks allowed a GRAND SLAM to Pat' The Bat' Burrell. He lasted 5 innings and after that Grannie allowed just 2 hits and 2 bbs thru his final four. Clemens has pitched solid baseball against the REDS since joining Houston and my only concern is what is his innings limit is here , if any. The Reds and Astros both have poor splits for DAY games. With Cincy the UNDER is 21-7-2 past 30 day starts. Bronson has turned the corner after a midseason slump and in his past starts no opponent has scored more then 4 runs( 4 , 3 , 2 and 0 were twice...11 runs allowed over past 7 starts) . He has won 4 straight and 6 of 7. Rocket in his career has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 7 outings vs Cincy( the lone start was @ Cincy). Arooyo away and in the day is 11-4 UNDER and Clemens day ERA is 2.54.

Clemens with some time of in bewteen starts has only allowed 7 hits in his past 3 starts spanning 17 innings(1 run outside of the grannie). Arroyo has been even sharper past 3 starts allwoing just 2 runs in 25 innings and 11 hits...21 K's. Fully expected to see 7.5 maybe even 7 here....

I would expect at least 6 and maybe 7 from rocket and would hope for 7+ from Arroyo shortening the bullpen outings. Also this appears to be the Rocket's last home start of the season and possibly in Houston...somethingto chew on.

Astros -131 (2x)

With the Reds struggling on offense just as much as Houston and posting a 7-22 L29 day games, 3-11 L14 away and hav dropped 7 of the past 8 games AFTER a WIN. The Reds had struggled in Houston in recent years but have won 6 of 8 this year(11-33 L44 prior to 2006). If we are talking even offenses(both are .240 during the day) then I will take the home team with the Rocket on the hill as most will see value in the Dog.

Rockies +110 (3units) & Under 5.5 First 5 -109 (2units)

Really this is just backing a smoking HOT Colorado team at home. It's now 7 straight home wins and 19-10 since the break at Coors. The Rockies have won 4 of 6 at home in the 2nd H when Cook starts. Three times he has gone 8 innings snd allowed 2 runs, then 7 innings and 3 runs , 6 1/3 innings with 4 runs and a shelling vs Arizona. Now SF is playing better recently in day games 6-1 after a nite game but just 2-7 as roack chalk under -150. Always tough fading a SP of the quality of Jason Schidmt but Coors hasnt been friendly to him and the pen in SF is shaky.

With Tschida behind the dish and his wide zone expectations are for a low scorer game. Especially with 2 SP's who struggle to run support. With Schidmt its feast or famine whne he pitches ...a shutout or 7 runs and seeing how Cook has been fairly consistent at home lately famine looks closer to what will happen.

NEW INFO& CHANGES

Devil Rays -124 (4x up from 3x) & Rays Over 5 Runs game +100 (3x) & Over 10 +106 (3x)

Seo has actually pitched fairly well since 8/1 when they decided it was best to make sure he stays in the rotation ona regular turn . He has 6 quality starts in that span but unfortunately they just dont hit when he pitches...

Penn just has struggled to an amazing level for some reason for a guy who is a top prospect with ML experience. The total play on TB is a reflection of that simce Penn has allowed at least 7 runs by the third inning in all of his starts(22 runs in 6 1/3 inn over 3 starts) and the opposition has score 10,9 and 17 in those starts. At some point he will begun to pitch better but hopefully iots not today.

The new stuff on this game were more about trends that I discovered. The O's have NOT won 4 straight away all season or swept a road series. They are 3-7 after 3 consecutive wins. Believe it or not but TB in 3 or 4 game series has faced a SWEEP game only 3x this year in Tampa. All 3 x times they won the final game to avoid the sweep. The O's are 3-16 on the road as DOGS of +100 to +125 where TB is 20-8 L28 times they have been favored. I added a play on the total cause I cant understand the under pressure...Silly trends have O's 12-6 Over when a road dog of less then 125 , 14-9 Over road total of 10 or 10.5 , 8-2 over after 3 consecutive wins , 8-0 OVER with this home Plate UMP in games he has 10 or 10.5 totals. Balt resting Mora and Hernandez here starting guys like Newhan 4/31 day , Chavez , Gibbons .197 1 Hr , Patterson and Millar low .230's in teh day . Penns been bad period but 2 of 3 have been DAY starts.

Red Sox -128 (3x)

Real tough call with Schilling out for 3 weeks and probably restricted to 80 pitches or so. I just dont trust Boonser on the road yet and I am not sure he can pitch as well at Boston as he did vs inferior lineups in Cle and TB. Schilling has dropped his l;ast 5 starts including 2 at home but the home games were clearly not his fault and is still 9-3 at home. With Johan Santana pitching tmrw against Beckett this might be there best spot to grab a win as they dont hit LHP all that welland Santana is king of the hill right now! Okay well I just saw the LINE for Santana @ fenway ....-164 and played Boston/Beckett @ +156 ABSURD price IMO...

Rangers -138(2x)

Robinson Tejada has looked real good in his return to the rotation and you could say the same for Baek. However Baek just unexplicably lost command last outing vsToronto and got shelled in that 3rd inning...so was able to work on the side and rediscover it??? Obviously I dont think so. I think Baek is a question mark but I would like the Under here since Baek has pitched well against Texas.



Under 9.5 -122 DET & ChiW(4x)

Bonderman versus Garland. Bonderman despite recent struggles away has pitched better on the road this season and his last couple at Chicago have been solid as 3 of his 4 starts vs CHI this yr were. Garland last 2 vs DET were excellent and he has been failrly consistent since a slow start. Leaning towards DET here...

Under 8.5 -117 NYM & Fla (now 8x from 5x)

Willis has a 3.30 road ERA and FLA only score 3.44 runs per road start. Oliver Perez has improved since being recalled from AAA. He last pitched versus FLA in Pro Player and had 11 K's in 5 Inn. his last home start was a CG 3 hit shutout(12K's) of Atlanta and his other SHEA start was solid vs Philly. Only lasted 5 innings cause he fell apart in the 5th allowing a Grannie but that was one of only 2 hits allowed , its always the walks and longballs that kill him. Who knows what type of lineup NY will run out but there real lineup has struggled against LHP since the Nady deal.

New:

Over 9.5 +109 Phi& ChiC(4x) could we see o/u9?

Myers is one of the rare quality SP's who has slightily better road splits then home splits...probably not all that strange when considering Philly's home park is a bandbox. Factor in a 4.58 NITE era and he should get touched for a few runs here. Now a big key to Myers lack of success at home is the lack of run support he receives...the stud has dropped 5 straight at home. Last home win when he started June 19th 4-2 vs NYY(overdue for a win). He had 3 starts in his recent 5 games home slide where went 8 innings and allowed only 1,3,1 runs BUT LOST! I owuld say about 70% of his home starts are high quality. With Walrond opposing Philly here they should face another LHP (like Sean Marshall in the opener) that is extremely hittable. Walronds command doesnt impress me and that leaves to grooving pitches IMO. He has been solid on LHB but RHB have slugged him especially away . Obviously all limited work .

Nationals -102 (2units)

Dont understand why Cormier after a poor effort is favored. Last time he pitched there he was a small dog to Astacio and WASH won 5-0. See Ortiz as a similiar SP to as Astcaio, only success comes at home. Now cormier had been pitching fairly well but I still cant see why he is favored. With that in mind I would lean towrads the Under 9.5 just cause these lineups are so inconsistent on offense..

Under 9 +102 Milw & STL (4x)

Suppan has had a tremendous 2nd H but still has some struggles away. In that 2nd H he has 3 extremely solid away starts but 3 that are so-so or poor. Before his 2006 start @ MILW he had dominanted at MILW as a Cardinal. Last yr he 3 starst were 3-0 ,3-0 and 2-0 wins. Impressive to say the least. He went 23 1/3 innings with NO RUNS allowed and 15 hits, in 2004 he won 5-2 and went 7 1/3 inning allowing 1 run!!!! In those seasons though Suppan was better away then at Busch. He didnt pitch well @ MILW this season BUT fortunately he wont face Weeks and probably Hall sits out. Now he did rebound with a 7 + inning 1 run outin early August. Th eUNDER is 7-1-1 past 9 vs MILW. The other SP is Carlos Villanueva who has pitched okay and if Suppan is vintage allwoing 3 or less I really love my chances. Reilly behind the dish is a wide zone low scoring UMP(8.84 runs)

SD -163 (2x or 3x)

Fading Edgar G. Gonzalez who just cant seem to win a ML start despite being solid in FLA upon his recent return. The bottomline is hefty price BUT Wells has been decent recently and pitches better at home and this is his SD home debut. Arizona struggles mightily against LHP especially on the road. They generally struggle to top 3 runs vs LHP...notice the heavy vig on the Padre team total UND 3.5 runs. SD offense has improved recently but still incosnistent 10+runs in 4 of past 10 but 4runs or less in 5 of 10.

Hensley was -140 to Livan so this line makes sense IMO.

In LAD looking at Pitt +212 and Und 8.5 -103.

Under 9.5 -105 Boston (2x) CANCEL

Cant ignore Booners improvement and a still somewhat depleted Boston lineup. Again thinking Schilling will be okay.

Lean

Under 10.5 Texas

Det +106

Under 9.5 Oakland

PARLAY LAA -146 & PHILLY -259

more-

Phillies -125 -1.5 RL (3x)

Tigers +107 (3x)

BAd Luck again the Mets under.................

10PM's

Under 8.5 -120 SD (3x) & SD was (3x)

Under 8.5 +105 LAD (3x) Pirates +210 (2x) Under 4.5 LAD Runs +137

Under 5.5 First 5 Inn Oak (2x) & Under 4 Cleveland (3x) -105 & Und 9.5 +105(2x)