Thursday Baseball Thoughts & NCAAF

Day Games:

Cleveland +113(5x)

You have he return of Rich Harden who is on a pitch limt of somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-80 pitches there are conflicting reports. Due to the end of the minor league season his only rehab action from what I understand is simulated games where he went as high as 60 pitches and claims to feel good. His fastball ws 90-92 MPH last time out and I think I have to agree with Harden about this . He said the adrenaline of game action should add a few MPHs but I dont think he will be 95-99 like he can be. Basically I think Windsor a Top Prospect and canditate for the rotation after Zito leaves will come in for long relief after that. Macha is real concerned about the possibilty of a short outing and taxing his pen with a big series against LAA coming up. So is he playing to win here or just escape?

On the flip we have CC Sabathia. Sabathia has turned into a workhorse putting up 8 INN + in 8 of 13 away starts since being injured in the road (season)opener. The A's have a couple of solid bats vs LH but most of them see a decline in productivity against LHP. One key bat is Bobby Kielty who hits LH well(.327 7hrs) and Sabathia(9/26). Thomas only. 232 with 9Hrs vs LHP but great day splits 302 16 hrs. If Kendall sits the lineup will be thin at th ebottom with guys who dont hit LHP well and/or have bad day splits- Ellis , Scutaro , A. Perez , Melhuse. While Bradley , Kielty and Payton in the middle all have real solid but not spectular numbers.

A big key was Sabathia 's DAY ERA of 2.00 in 73 Innings. He also has seen 9 of 10 day starts go under. A's are .240 last 10 vs LHP but they do have a tremendous38-19 day record. What I am hoping is they use this as tune up for the LAA series. Which seems plausable.

Under 4.5 -113 Oakland Team Total (4x)

Already mentioning the possibility of a week bottom of the order lineup and Sabathi 2ERA in the day. In Sabathia's L10 starts the opponent has scored 4 or less RUNS in 9 of them. Of his 14 road starts the opposition has scored 4 runs or less in 10 of them. Whoever comes from the Tribe pen should be one of the better guys likeBetancourt or Jason Davis and for what should be a short period 10 of 13 are 7+Inn and teh other three were 6 inings.


Tigers -129 (now 4x from 3x)

This part situational- Balt played a day game yesterday and flew back from TB and now has to play what to them is a meaningles makeup game vs DET. Obviously with Minny breathing down its neck this is a big game for the Tigers who still own the best road record. Balt is ONLY 15-33 vs LHP and Robertson just shut them out 2-0 against Benson as well(hate the rematch). Robertson L3 starst have been solid allowing just 3 runs (2earned) in 22 innings. Nate sports a 3.50 ERA on the road.

Benson has also pitched very well lately 6runs in 23 innings L3. He was on the wrong side of that 2-0 loss to Robertson. The knock on him is his 4-8 team record when he starts @ Camden with a 4.01 ERA telling me they dont hit for him at home. The real BLACK EYE are his Day splits-
1-4 (2-5team) 7.17ERA 37 2/3 Inn 51 H 32R/30ER 10Hrs. Last yr also a 1 run higher difference in Day-Nite splits....7.17 vs 3.81 this year!


The rest :

Fla +129 (2units)

Just fading Pedro till he shows us he has found his command. Not to mention Anabel Sanchez has been one of the Hottest SP in baseball for the past 2 months with sick Nite splits.

Team Totals:

Over 3 Fla -123 (3units) & Under 3.5 +109 NYM (2units)

Sanchez has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 straight but in 8 of those it was 2 or less. That i shelped by Home Plate UMP Eddings and his typical big zone and low scoring affairs. The Over cause I dont see Pedro as healthy yet and 4 og 6 and 6 of 10 he has allowed at least 4 runs. He does have ggreat stats vs FLA but again he isnt PEDRO yet. Definetly was taking to heart his last outing which makes me wonder was there something more going on there then we know? Or did he simply just expect to walk to teh mound and dominate ?

Astros +125 (2units)

First concern is Andy's elbow but he has a good track record( before the injury shortened start he had 8 of 9 vs STL with at least 6 innings and 3 runs or less) vs StL if he is okay. The Cards just struggle vs LHP this year . Carpenter hasnt been sharp this year on the road(8-6 4.52 era) and pitches poorly for him @ Minute Maid. Cards 7-20 L27 away . Carpenter did shutout the Stros in StL on 9/11...previous 2 strarts this year though 14 innings and 9 runs at Minute Maid...last three in Houston all 4 runs allowed.

Two stats to chew on: STL is 3-13 vs LHP on the road and 5-16 L 21 as Road chalk.

Brewers -121 (5x)

Morris and Ex-Card has pitched well in MILW in the past but now he is a Giant. Bush has been extremely solid at home:

3.43 ERA 102 1/3 Inn 82 H 20BB 88K(team 11-4 in 15 starts)

Bush known to struggle on the road pitched 8 INN 3Hitter that he lost 2-0 in SF.

Morris 0-3 past 3 starts witha 7ERA won his last 4 in Milw as a Cardinal...

With teams avg 3.47 per against Bush this year @ Miller

Under 4 -108 SF team total(2x)

Over 9.5 +101 Colorado & ATL (now 2x from 3x) and Over 4 -128 Colorado Team Total (3x)

Smoltz on the road is 10-6 Over with a 4.23 era. Smoltz had struggled some before the solid home start vs FLA. You always wonder at 39 what he has left in the tankl at this point. Kim tend sto pitch well at home with a 3.97 ERA

BAsically riding theRockies over STREAK here.

Rockies +122 (3x)

SD +101 (5x)

Real simple take away the SP's names and focus on the numbers.

Arizona 2-10 Last 12 away and won last nite. Then 7-15 following a win and 5-15 if they scored more then 5 runs in that win. SD is 12-3 last 15 as Home dog and 13-3 in Game's 3 at home last 16 series. SD 14-5 this yr when WIlliams starts vs a team witha losing record and 20-9 L29 in that situation.

Williams 6-3 at Home with a 3.19 ERA in 62 innings. Webb is 7-9 with a 3.35 ERA away in 110 innings. Webb has lost 4 of 5 away in the 2nd Hand has allowed at least 4+ runs n four of them but the other was 5 Inn and 3 runs......not exactly quality ....

Williams has won 6 of 7 starts but was outdueled by Webb in Zona...the line was only -135 which makes even money here look steep.

Boston +156 (2.5x) & +1.5 -111 Boston (3x) & Under 4.5 Minny -111 (2x)

Santana again has slipped up some on the road and despite being 6-2 away in the 2nd Half he has bbeen hit around some. He also won 4 of the 6 by 1 run. While Minny is rolling and Boston stinking vs LHP its a tough call but I think this number is INFLATED...

GL