MLB Thoughts for Saturday

Marlins 1st 5 Innings +181 (2x) , Marlins +1.5 -106RL (1x) , Marlins +197 (1x) & Over 4.5 +100 Florida team (3x)

Really this is fading Leiber in day starts versus a team he doesnt historically pitch well against. Why the 1st 5innings? Two reasons the FLA pen blows so many leads its mind blowing and Moehler is probably only go to be around for 5 maybe 6 innings at best. Now lookin at Moehler his best work has come in day games 3-1 4.68 ERA (4-1). Thoughthe timeoff from injury leaves you wondering exactly where he is. Leiber is only 5-14 at home vs teams with losing records and 1-6 in the day(0-4 5.68 ERA)this year. The spin here is Philly playing well and Fla fading. Last nite the price was high but you had a guy in Hamels who could be lights out I wouldnt expect that from Leiber here. Now Fla has won 7 of 8 in the day . Silly trend is road team is 20-14 with Davidson . Moehler has been serviceable in his 4 career starts(12 runs in 20 2/3) vs Philly while Leiber has been hit hard and lost both at home. His 1st start in April was solid but after that downhill...18runs in 16 innings~

Its hard to back FLA now and the lines are designed to make you see value in them. However after people got hurt with them last nite I am hoping they are a bit gun shy to back them...seems like late Philly money which I like.

Nationals +150 1st 5 Inn(2x), Nats +150 (1x) & Under 5 -112 NYM (3x)

Simply a fade of the Mets who I still contend struggle against LHP. O'Connor looked good last outing and pitched well in the 1st encounter. Welke has 8.32 rusn against average...

White Sox -124 (4x)

Many small factors. First king Felix has struggled on the road and dropped 5 of the last 6 away. His innings have been limited lately to keep his season total in check. He faced Chi twice and been rather avergae in both. Now Seattle is playing well and the White Sox falling to pieces but this price is cheap. Buerhle doesnt have great day splits but has a decent 4.30 ERA @ Home. Only facing SEA once @ Safeco he pitched a soldi game 7 inninsg and 4 runs. In 5 home starst vs Seattle he has allowed only 8 runs , gone at least seven inninsg 5 times and only allowed 3 runs one time. Seattle is 21-25 in day agmes and 19-23 vs LHP. The Sox are 33-22 in day games and 9-4 after losing 3 straight. Woukld like to go under sattle 4.5 runs but they are swinging hot bats

Under 9 -103 Oakland & LAA (4x) & Under 4.5 +107 1st 5 Inn (1x) & LAA +100 (2x)

Liked it last nite and lost thanks to 2 great pens allowing 6 runnings in the final 4 frames and Houston Street being 1 out away from a save! Blanton has pitched verywell athome vs LAA in his career and the same is said for LAckey who generally pitches better away past 2 seasons. Iassogona behind the dish 18-13 UNDER mark with 8.82 runs. Angels cored more then 4 runs just twice past 10. LAckey 6 career starts in Oakland see on 3 occassions allowing 2 runs , two ocassion no runs including a CG 1 hitter and 1 shelling! Blanton has 5 of 6 solid vs LAA in his career with some strong 8 inning outings. LAckeyhas great day splits but Blantosn 4.93 era is concerning.

Reds +134(3x)

Zambrano's away numbers are sick but no way he should be anything over -120 in this game. Lohse inconsistent as hell but at least rebounded inHouston to pitch a decent game with some nice home starts. Early on when Chi and Cincy were healthy Zambrano was -124 against Harang and later -110 vs Claussen. So after dropping 12 of 14 away the price goes up?? Carlos was only -158 at HOME versus Milton last week. For as good as Zambrano has pitched he has struggled some vs Cincy and at Great American. Lohse has made 9 starts and only 2 have been bad and 2 average the rest were solid work.

Thinking about Baltimore still...and working on the nite schedule.

Some Nite action:

Brewers -138 (4x)

I hate riding one team in a series (had Milw thurs and Fri) but just keep saying MILW as undervalued. If you need to understand this play look at my post yesterday cause again its Lefty vs Lefty. Bottomline is Capuano is clearly better then Doug Davis nearly a run less at home and consistently goes 7 or more innings and allows 3 runs or less @ Miller. Lowry I question his health and has been awful on the road. I hate when teams still a win lie MILW did late but they had no business blwoing a 5 run lead either. HINT- IBB BONDS!!!

With Oswalt at home vs STL and 6 of 7 versus them 1 run or less I think he is cheap opposing Reyes. However after 2 comeback wins and Oswalt leaving his last start due to injury I will pass.

Looking atriding Zona again ML & +1.5

Under 9.5 -114 DET & KC (4x)& Under 5 1st 5 inn +10 (2x)

Expected 9 here. Think Redman can give a solid 6 or 7 here as he as been tough at home past 2 starts and has solid splits. DET doesnt hit LHP(15-31 under) all that well and the same can be said for KC(12-33SU but over biased). Rogers on a nice run lately since he made some adjustments.


Under NYY 10-120(3x) & Under 5.5 -108 1st 5 (2x)

Outside of the drubbing they laid on Joe Sanders my Yanks have struggled to hit LH's away recently. Go back tolast trip Bedard , Loewen , and DeLaRosa all had quality outinsg vs them. before that Washburn and Wells held them to 2 runs but they drubbed Jon Lester who wasnt 100% at the time. Trip before that Loewena nd Chen gave them troubles....Howell is medicore ta best but LH.....RJ struggles vs TB but new faces and these Rays havent topped 4 runs in at least 10 games. It appears many Yanks could getthe nite off. Hallion has become an UNDER ump 8.91 per. HAt eto say it +180 looks ATTRACTIVE.

Still thinking about Balt! GL

Must admit that the FLA plays were lost in teh 1st inning.......2out bases loaded 1run in and the backup catcher up......getthe out MOMENTUM i syours. They dont 3-0 and look to be dead.


Thanks Redman! I wanted to play DET but lost track of time!

Anway plaing Zona ML and Zona +1.5 for (1.5x each)

Thats all