NCAA Football 9 /21 to 9/23

Thursday Nite

Under 40 -110 Georgia Tech & Virginia (4x)

Really we have 2 struggling offenses here and in game that is historically low scoring. What has Virginia done on offense this season without Hagan and Lundy?? Well at home vs Western Michigan the managed 255 yards at home!!!! The prior week they managed 13 points versus Wyoming and it was 6 -6 after 4 quarters! Oh but they broke 200 yards and cant run the ball at all ....they have used 3 QB's... Georgia Tech on the other hand held ND to 14 points at home. In 6 home games last year UNC scored 21 , UConn 13 , Wake 17 , Clemson 9 , NCST 17 and Georgia 14. One concern is that @ Pitt they did throw 2 Pick 6's for 14 of the 38 points. As well as two 1st down 70++ yard TD passes.

GT broke out in the 4th quarter versus Troy but you would think that was just them wearing down after FSU and 3 tight quarters with GT(tied @ 14 in the 3rd Q).

The total was 45 in Virgina last yr(27-17) and GT lost Daniels and Bilbo while Hagans and Lundy are gone from the Cavs in what is a rebuilding season now.

Result GT wins 24 -7 (+4x)

Under 48.5 -110 Northwestern & Nevada (3x) Change Bought over 45 -120(1.5x) so we have a middle for half now

The Wildcats have struggled mightily on offense this year. It started in week 1 playing a Miami Ohio team decimated by graduation and managed 14 points of offense. They returned home and got thumped by a 1 AA New Hampshire squad possibly cause of the emotional distraction of playing a home game without Coach Randy Walker who passed away shortly before the season started. Now versus an Eastern Michigan team playing its 3rd straight away game and they didnt do much at home. So now they travel to Nevada who has a couple of decent defensive efforts vs CSU and Fresno under its belt and should have enough to keep the WIldcat offense silent. The Wildcat defense has played well and gained valuable experience last season. Really tough to take the points here after Nwestern past 2 games so 27-17 is what I am thinking.


Result : Nevada wins 31-21(pick 6 to end it with 2 min left...mf'ers!) (-1.8x)

Virgina +17 -110 (2x)

I am fully aware that Virginia is throwing a redshirt freshman out there vs a very complex defense. This is quite simply a play against GT as -17 point favs more then anything. There are a defensive minded team playing an ACC game vs a team that has troubled them...Troy was a smaller dog and hung with them till the 4th q(14-14 after 3)... not sold on the GT offense and teh key is the big play....Cavs allowed 38 to Pitt...2 defensive TD's and 2 1st down 70+ yd TD passes..

Result Lose 24-7 PUSH- Buy the hook off a key number dummy!

Under 28.5 -125 GTech Team Total (2x)

Result :GT scores 27 (+2x)

Under 21.5 -150 Northwestern (3x)

Wildcat offense has struggled and I just dont see what has changed

Result : Northwestern scores 21 (+3x)

Saturday's Thoughts

Michigan -13 -110 (4x) & Wisconsin Under 14.5 -121 (1x)Middled w/Wisconsin +14.5 -109 (1x)
Is it me or would people rather talk letdown after the ND win and overlook the momentum that it could build? I mean Michigan LOST to these schools last year and I am sure they have these rematches circled. So there is no letdown in motivation this week. Clearly Michigan underacheived last season and you have to love how they looked vs ND just hitting on all cylinders. What has Wisky done? They dont have much on offense as evidenced by the scoreless 1st H vs SDST and 14points. This game reminds me so much of when Wisky traveled to Penn State last year as 13 PT dogs and just got whipped! Now granted this Michigan team is NOT Penn State of last year but couldnt be and is it far off? With a young stud RB to rely on playing his 1st big game and a QB still working hsi way back from surgery....I dont see where the points will come from. Yes, The Badger defense is very solid but this Michigan offense is talented, squared. Last yr Michigan was -3 @ Wisky and HART DID NOT PLAY. Th eonly player Wisky returns on offense from that game is Stocco.

Look at what Wisky did vs West Illinois at home ..34 points but only 20 afetr 3 quarters. Pat Hill Jr 3 nice TD's but 22carries for 110 yds isnt impressive by college standards. When at BG they had 300 yards on offense and at one point led by just 7 in the third Q.

Result : Mich wins by 14 and I hit the middle , plus Wisky scored 13 pts (+6.x)

Purdue +3 -110(3x)

What has Minnesota done this year? Oh what they always do schedule easy opponents and blew them the Fuck out! How is it that at home last year Minny is only -3 now they are laying 3 on the road? Doesnt make sense to me...is blwoing Temple and Kent St out 106-0 that impressive. Purdue always sems to have a QB who can sling it and as far as I am concerned we saw Minnys defense @ CAL...there real defense. Simply fading Minny as road chalk even with defensive issues with Purdue. Thinking about the over now that I see 61.5 but isnt it so obvious?

Result : Purdue wins 27-21 (+3.x)

Under 54.5 -105 Louisville & Kansas St (4x) & Under 19.5 -108 Kansas St (2.5x)

I for one have been impressed by the Louisville defense and w/o reciting the Kansas St schedule they have done very little on offense versus inferior teams. Hoping that with a backup QB and RB who we know are uber-talents they decide to play it a little safe let the running game dictate pace and lean on the defense some. Big believer in the tremendous difference bewteen home and away. Cantwell looked great but I need to see how he handles a hostile enviroment.

Result: Lville wins 24-6 (+6.5x)

Buffalo +42.5 -105 (2x)

Really played this thinking it will be hard for Buffalo to score but if they get 1 TD they probably cover. We have a total of 49.5 so while its likely Buffalo is in the 0-3 pt range here I think they have improved as the season plays on. Auburn has no reason to show up here off the LSU game with Bama on deck and Irons hurt. Now just remember the 3rd back at Auburn atone time was Brandon Jacobs...he might have been 4th actually. Could see 38-0 here...38-3 , 42-3

Result : Auburn 38-3 (+2.x)

BYU -17 -105 1st Half (2x)

After last week I am so unimpressed with Utah State....back to back shutouts an 7pts scord this season in 3 games. It looks like John Beck is OUT and Jason Beck will QB. The fact he is a senor with game experence definetly soothes some concern here.

Result : BYU led 24-0 and won 38-0 (+2.x)

Penn State +17 -110 (3x)

I think this is a reflection of a few things. First the overwhelming win @ Texas, the underwhelming Nittany Lion performance @ ND, and the talk about payback. Penn State got hit by a buzzsaw in ND but last I check I thought there defense was still solid and they have kept the Ohio State offense in check.Morrelli hopefully is now more comfortable in an insane enviroment. Last year Ohio State was 3 pt favs @ Penn State and lost....so how do we justify 16 or 17 here? Penn State will be be prepared this time. How bout thefact Miami Ohio was 17 in week 1 and Cincy 29....Penn State is alot beter the 12 pts when being compared to Cincy.....line is double the ND line......just a high inflated line IMO.

Result : Ohio State 28-6 (-3.30x)cant explain the pain! Penn State was the right call and Ohio St is overrated!

Over 54 -108 West Virginia (3x)

They just seem to be clicking on all cylinders and east Carolina can or should able to score on them.

Result : WVU wins 27-10(-3.24x) Bad choice I knew ECU could limit them

Under 21.5 -108 Stanford team total (3x)

Walks on a WR will hurt you everytime.......

Result : Stanford loses 36-10 (+3.x)

Miss St +10 -110 (2x)

Tulane did a great job of throwing on State but not sure UAB can follow suit. Omar Conner got it together late and looking for that carry overe here.

Result : MissSt wins 16-10 in OT (+2.x)

South Carolina -17-105 1st Half (2x)

Well FAU cant stop anyone and hasnt been able to score. South carolina has Newton back @ QB and needs to put a whipping on someone after letting Wofford crawl back into it last week.

Result: SC leads 28-6 @ half (+2.x)

Houston ML -118 (3x)

I tend to have arule regarding small favs. Basically if the small number goes down on am I on the fav if it holds I take the dog.

Here I see Ok State still very unproven on the road on defense and with inconsistent QB play from Reid. Houston played liek shit in the opener but this mid size program doesnt host many games like this. Factor in the smooth senior QB Kolb and a defense that gained a ton of experience last season. All the small edges go to Houston here...looking at the over 56.5 as well....have to recheck those HO OL injuries though. Dont forget this HOU team had high expectations last year and underacheived...big chalk games athome and played in a Bowl.

Result : Houston wins 34 -25 (+3.x)

Washington +3.5 -110 (3x)ML +140(1x)

Like the fact the Huskies are home after a big home win vs Fresno. Confidence is up and there is probably a positive buzz around the campus . Now UCLA benefits from a bye week but there was goingto be some tranistion this season with all the turnover on offense and to me they havent looked so good to date. Now a conference road test and they are favored. Wash took them to the buzzer last year @ UCLA and they are on the rise IMO and able to build from that experience.

Result: Wash wins 29-19 (+4.4x)

North Carolina State +7 -110 (2x)

Think BC is walking a fine line....3 close wins and 2 in OT at home....they cant continue to get the bounces so to speak...outplayed IMO by both Clemson and BYU. NCST doesnt have much on offense but the QB switch could ignite it...could....what I am relying on here is the defense to set the tone and Wolfpack always suck as fav and do whatever little damage as a dog....

Result : NCST wins 17-15 (+2.x)

San Diego State +10-120 (2x)

While the Atzecs have QB issues I dont see why Utah is such a big fave here. WHat have they done? I expect State to build on the defensive performance at Wisky here.

Result : Lost 38-7 (-2.4x)

Hawaii +14.5 -109 (4x) & Over 24 +100 Hawaii (2x) & ML +470(.75x)

I think Hawaii has proved two things to me. First with how they traveled to Bama . They fell behind but covered anyway. They kept Darby in check and displayed a sound defense while still throwing on a good Bama D. Problem was teh inability to mix in the run. The second was how they played against Boise last year. True it was on the mainland but they were also fairly young and inxperienced...now there all grown up. Boise didnt look impressive @ Wyoming and after falling asleep vs Oregon State they woke up and scored like 7 unanswered TD's. Problem is that was due to teh run game and I dont see Ian Johnson doing that here. Zabransky was one of the cockiest QB's I had ever seen but has really regressed since the beginning of last year...check his Ore St stats....Noise St is overrated and the Smurf Turf is never a place to fade exept here I think we the ideal situation...one under the radar program versus one living off past glory.

Result: Boise St 41-34 (+5.25x)

over 59 -102 Notre Dame & Michigan St(2x)

Seems easy which is never a good sign. We know of ND's offensive firepower but there defense is very average and Statnton will move the ball against it. Now Mich Sta defense suprised me a bit @ Pitt but ND will be ready after that brutal loss.....seeing a 30-30 something game similiar to last years 44-41 game.

Result : 40-37 (+2.x)

Added-

Arkansas -1.5 -110 (4x)

Basically havent liked what I have seen from the Bama offense even considering what they did vs Monroe. darby has had trouble running due to the inconsistent passing game. Two things that I look at were first the unranked home fav vs the ranked road team...its tells you ranking mean nothing and always a good fade situation. The second is common opponent...Vandy. Arkansas's you ng QB wen there a 6 point favs and threw Tds while Bama at home laying -14.5 scored 13. Bama broke away late in the Monroe game scoring 3 Tds( half tehre points) in the final 16 minutes of the game. Now Vandy is better then most expected and both lines were somewhat inflated but it seems to me this teams are of equal strength(power rating wise/spread wise)...so with home field Arkansas should probably be at least 3 or 3 1/2.

Result- ARK wins 24-23 Oh the pain! Somewhat fucked myself ..missed the NL @ -133 and could have bought it -1.(-4.40)

Mid Tenn State +28.5 -105 (2x)

Result : OU wins 56-0 (-2.1x) Now thats how u lose!

Iowa State +24.5 +104 (2x)

Texas can clearly put a whopping on anyone but this is an interesting test IMO. Texas creamed two bad teams and was creamed by Ohio State in the 'REMATCH'. This ame will tell us alot about Texas and how they will lean on there QB from here on it. Iowa State has suprised me this year with there retooled defense but Brett Myer remains consistent. Just thinkingteh point wont come as easy and quick for the Longhorns here and Iowa State can do somethings on offense.

Result : texas wins 37-14 (+2.x) got lucky here somewhat was 17-14 once

Eastern Michigan +4.5 -105 (2x)

The Chippewas off a nice home win playing a revenge game. I just dont see the clear seperation bewteen these programs to be laying such big chalk. EMU actually played defense vs a struggling Northwestern program. CMU jumped on Akron and had to hold on. CMU has definetly played the tougher schedule but not sure they are good enough on defense to lay road chalk. EMU has been troubled trying to STOP the run but CMU hasnt run it that well yet.

Result : CMU wins 24-17 in OT! Painful!

Under 17.5 -116 Miami-Ohio team total (1x)

Inconsistent offense vs a defensive minded coach / school

Result: score 14 (+1.x)

Under 30.5 -108 Ohio State team total(1x)

Overlooking the Buckeye inconsistency 's on offense and underrating this Penn State defense due to the ND game

Result Ohio State scores 28 and ZERO @ HALF! Overrated!!(+1.x)

TEASER-

Tenny -11 . Nebraska -13.5 , Cal +1.5 (4x)

Result- All 3 blowouts! (+3.x) remember -1 hedged

Adding a Parlay

Under 61 Hawaii , Over 56 Houston and Over 49 LSU(1x)Loss

All in all a very solid day. If I had playe dteh same sizes as last week would have been a monster day. Hopefully we ae back to even in CFB and maybe small posted profits.