NCAAB Updated Thoughts :
Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier
Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...
Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139
Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....
Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5
BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155
Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....
Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6
Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133
Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Wed NBA:
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Thursday NFL Action :
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
NCAAB :
Bradley -135 ML
Evansville +13.5
Over 131 Evansville/ Valpo
So.ILL 1st H -2.5
Under 134 UCF / ULL
Parlay : Panthers ML (NHL) , Bradley ML , Grizzlies +5.5 , and over 204.5 Memphis / Det
NBA:
Over 196 Wash
Leans(waiting to see 1st H ):
Tor / Und
Wash (strong lean)
NJN / Und
NHL:
Panthers -120
Lean :
Over 6 +110 TB
Bradley -135 ML
Evansville +13.5
Over 131 Evansville/ Valpo
So.ILL 1st H -2.5
Under 134 UCF / ULL
Parlay : Panthers ML (NHL) , Bradley ML , Grizzlies +5.5 , and over 204.5 Memphis / Det
NBA:
Over 196 Wash
Leans(waiting to see 1st H ):
Tor / Und
Wash (strong lean)
NJN / Und
NHL:
Panthers -120
Lean :
Over 6 +110 TB
NCAAB Thoughts :
7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :
Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!
So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.
Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.
Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.
Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...
Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??
ULL @ UCF :
Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....
Evansville @ Valpo :
Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!
The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)
In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.
Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...
Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.
While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...
Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!
Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...
StMarys @ So ILL :
I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.
So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.
They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!
Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....
Sac St @ Oregon :
Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....
Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...
GL
7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :
Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!
So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.
Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.
Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.
Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...
Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??
ULL @ UCF :
Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....
Evansville @ Valpo :
Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!
The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)
In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.
Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...
Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.
While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...
Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!
Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...
StMarys @ So ILL :
I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.
So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.
They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!
Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....
Sac St @ Oregon :
Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....
Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...
GL
Monday, December 10, 2007
Tuesday NBA :
Wolves @ Wiz :
Wash is on a 11-2 OVER run. Naturally I had the Over 194.5 last game and at 193 pt swith 90 seconds left they failed to score !! Just my Luck lately. Mix in a 23-9 OVER run versus Western Conference foes.
You have to me somewhat impressed how Wash dismantled NJ in the 2nd H on Sunday. Furthermore a young team upsetting the SUNS at home now traveling seems like a great fade spot. Sure Minny is 5-3 ATS away but look at the numbers ...+8.5 @ NYK , +11.5 LAL , +4.5 @ Sac w/o Artest , +14 @ Den , +11 @ NO ( SU UPSET) , +14 @ Dallas , +9 @ Memphis in a poor spot ( day after they got smoked and choked by SA in the 4th q) , +9 @ ATL where they had ahuge 2nd H rally).
Minny appears depelted some in its bench with Walker and Buckner looking OUT. Looking at the Wiz on offense I feel they should score 104 + points here and Minny should get to 93++...oddly Minny scored 93 in its first 4 road games , then 103 twice before ONLY 80 @ Memphis in the flat spot and 89 @ ATL after a REAL sluggish start...The only concern for an OVER would be a WIZ blowout which would help it sneak under...like a 105-89 win....
So lean to Wiz -9 and lean ov 197....
Raps @ Hawks :
The Raps appear to set to get Bargnani back while playing a sandwich game(home vs Hous then @ Dallas). Bosh returned and appeared fine playing 40 minutes while Ford has worked himself back .
The Hawks will be off a road upset WIN in Orlando. I dont trust ATL in spots against good teams where they must win to cash. They have lost at home badly to SA and DET recently as well as to the Hornets. They were again w/o Lue and Childress so assume they miss here.
One thing we have to applaud is the work ATL did on defense holding ORL to 40% at home. They scored more points tonight then usual really due to late FTs.
Personally I feel its hard to get a pulse on this game. You have some returning players for Tor and Bargnani could be rusty. I owuld hate to take ATL or the Under after passing on them tonite. Though I may be inclined to play a 1st H under......
Pacers @ Cavs :
Guessing we see about -5.5 here with LeBrons return(Hughes just came back) . You wonder what the Cavs will look like on offense. Simply because both James and Hughes have not played in so long together . Hughes looked rusty last game and James probably will be to a degree. Indy playing so uptempo does lead to easy buckets...curious at the number here. Pacers playing better past 2 games and have 3 days rest while Cle desperate to end a losing streak. If we get a big number I would probably take Indy and expect a Cavs SU win but ATS loss.
Clippers @ NJN :
The Nets are playing terrible and due to injuries LAC is terrible this season. Home team dominants the series.
Whats worse being 3-13 ATS last 16 or 0-8-1 ATS at home ?? Thats the situation we have here!! For good measure NJ only 10-24-1 L35 ATS after a SU loss by 10 ++ pts.
Fav is 7-1 last 8 in the series and NJN 0-7ATS last 7 in NJN .....
Since returning from the West Coast NJN has looked terrible. They lost SU at home to Memphis in a game I dont recall them ever leading ( had memphis that nite) , then afetr a few days off looked terrible but rallied and escaped vs Philly , got smpoked @ Det the next day , sort of bounced back by beating a deplted Cavs squad , followed by losing at home to NYK when Kidd sat out , losing at home to Houston and then losing @ Wash !!!!! Thing is what has LAC done to make you excited ?? Last 10 2-8 SU beating a disinterested DEN team awhile back and beating the Kings when they played there 1st game w/o KMartin!
If NJ wasnt struggling -7 would be real soft but since they are its dead on. NJ is desperate to win this and probably puts me on them. With both teams struggling some I would lean UND 184 but thats a tight number...NJ should score low 90's...worst case..
Pistons @ Grizz :
Tough to not like the Grizz and over. After all Grizz are 3-0 ATS as dogs while going 7-2 Over! Now you get Mem after a bad loss when they were just drained after losing in OT @ NO. Problem is minus one bad spot vs Chi the Pistons have been en fuego!!!
Still Grizz have played well vs DET in the past covering 7 of 8 barely missing that eight cover in the series. have to stick with Grizz / Over here....
Seattle @ Chicago :
Seattle seems to be improving playing much better in its past 2 road contests but partly because they made up big 1st H defecits. You have to think Chi + Under at the moment. So UND 189....just cant lay -8 here with Chi having Indy on deck they havent shown the consistency...I dont like Sea in this spot either cause its a perfect number.....
Port @ Utah :
Jazz stumbling some dropping 3 straight road games and 4 vs the number. They have PHO on deck and you wonder how interested they are vs an improving Port squad. With Portland trying to be more aggressive would have to think over 205. Had expected 11.5 or 12 here with Port improving....
Spurs @ GSW :
Duncan should return and SA has owned the Warriors. I think GSW is in a mini funk right now and taking way , way to many 3 pters!! Spurs have won 9 of 10 only losing in a bad spot @ Sac plus they beat Dallas and Utah w/o Duncan....
Curious to see a number would expect SA -3 .....
CBB:
Small schedule had expected a -2 with Bradley @ Wright St....so not sure there. Not familiar enough with ULL to guess a number thought bewteen -9.5 and -11.5....we have -11.5..... , Expected -3.5 with So Ill and thinking about playing 1st H So.Ill cause the number is probably a bit soft due to recent play of these teams. However 1st true road game vs STMarys and they started slowly vs SDST in a neutral site game . Had expected -11 maybe -11.5 with Valpo we see -10.5. Which makes me thinks that Evansville will be a play. Valpo is catching alot of action lately and I would have thought they would have inflated the number slightily...
Last is Oregon hosting Sac State! I kinda expected higher maybe even 35 /36. They have some common opponents and Sac State gets smoked where as Oregon smoked those same teams...
Sac St +22.5 @ Kansas State lost by 30. Tough place to play but I think on a neutral court Oregon is 6 or 7 points better..., they caught +30 @ Stanford and covered now I think again Oregon is 6 or 7 better on a neutral court , how bout Pacifuc and SF ...at -32 orcheaper it seems some sort of Oregon play is in order..maybe 1st H ....they should win by 30 rather easily......
bad signs allowing 47% from 3 pt land and then hitting just 54& from the FT line...Last home game for Oregon for awhile they should win 100-65 after shaking off some rust vs Utah.
See what tmrw brings.....
Wolves @ Wiz :
Wash is on a 11-2 OVER run. Naturally I had the Over 194.5 last game and at 193 pt swith 90 seconds left they failed to score !! Just my Luck lately. Mix in a 23-9 OVER run versus Western Conference foes.
You have to me somewhat impressed how Wash dismantled NJ in the 2nd H on Sunday. Furthermore a young team upsetting the SUNS at home now traveling seems like a great fade spot. Sure Minny is 5-3 ATS away but look at the numbers ...+8.5 @ NYK , +11.5 LAL , +4.5 @ Sac w/o Artest , +14 @ Den , +11 @ NO ( SU UPSET) , +14 @ Dallas , +9 @ Memphis in a poor spot ( day after they got smoked and choked by SA in the 4th q) , +9 @ ATL where they had ahuge 2nd H rally).
Minny appears depelted some in its bench with Walker and Buckner looking OUT. Looking at the Wiz on offense I feel they should score 104 + points here and Minny should get to 93++...oddly Minny scored 93 in its first 4 road games , then 103 twice before ONLY 80 @ Memphis in the flat spot and 89 @ ATL after a REAL sluggish start...The only concern for an OVER would be a WIZ blowout which would help it sneak under...like a 105-89 win....
So lean to Wiz -9 and lean ov 197....
Raps @ Hawks :
The Raps appear to set to get Bargnani back while playing a sandwich game(home vs Hous then @ Dallas). Bosh returned and appeared fine playing 40 minutes while Ford has worked himself back .
The Hawks will be off a road upset WIN in Orlando. I dont trust ATL in spots against good teams where they must win to cash. They have lost at home badly to SA and DET recently as well as to the Hornets. They were again w/o Lue and Childress so assume they miss here.
One thing we have to applaud is the work ATL did on defense holding ORL to 40% at home. They scored more points tonight then usual really due to late FTs.
Personally I feel its hard to get a pulse on this game. You have some returning players for Tor and Bargnani could be rusty. I owuld hate to take ATL or the Under after passing on them tonite. Though I may be inclined to play a 1st H under......
Pacers @ Cavs :
Guessing we see about -5.5 here with LeBrons return(Hughes just came back) . You wonder what the Cavs will look like on offense. Simply because both James and Hughes have not played in so long together . Hughes looked rusty last game and James probably will be to a degree. Indy playing so uptempo does lead to easy buckets...curious at the number here. Pacers playing better past 2 games and have 3 days rest while Cle desperate to end a losing streak. If we get a big number I would probably take Indy and expect a Cavs SU win but ATS loss.
Clippers @ NJN :
The Nets are playing terrible and due to injuries LAC is terrible this season. Home team dominants the series.
Whats worse being 3-13 ATS last 16 or 0-8-1 ATS at home ?? Thats the situation we have here!! For good measure NJ only 10-24-1 L35 ATS after a SU loss by 10 ++ pts.
Fav is 7-1 last 8 in the series and NJN 0-7ATS last 7 in NJN .....
Since returning from the West Coast NJN has looked terrible. They lost SU at home to Memphis in a game I dont recall them ever leading ( had memphis that nite) , then afetr a few days off looked terrible but rallied and escaped vs Philly , got smpoked @ Det the next day , sort of bounced back by beating a deplted Cavs squad , followed by losing at home to NYK when Kidd sat out , losing at home to Houston and then losing @ Wash !!!!! Thing is what has LAC done to make you excited ?? Last 10 2-8 SU beating a disinterested DEN team awhile back and beating the Kings when they played there 1st game w/o KMartin!
If NJ wasnt struggling -7 would be real soft but since they are its dead on. NJ is desperate to win this and probably puts me on them. With both teams struggling some I would lean UND 184 but thats a tight number...NJ should score low 90's...worst case..
Pistons @ Grizz :
Tough to not like the Grizz and over. After all Grizz are 3-0 ATS as dogs while going 7-2 Over! Now you get Mem after a bad loss when they were just drained after losing in OT @ NO. Problem is minus one bad spot vs Chi the Pistons have been en fuego!!!
Still Grizz have played well vs DET in the past covering 7 of 8 barely missing that eight cover in the series. have to stick with Grizz / Over here....
Seattle @ Chicago :
Seattle seems to be improving playing much better in its past 2 road contests but partly because they made up big 1st H defecits. You have to think Chi + Under at the moment. So UND 189....just cant lay -8 here with Chi having Indy on deck they havent shown the consistency...I dont like Sea in this spot either cause its a perfect number.....
Port @ Utah :
Jazz stumbling some dropping 3 straight road games and 4 vs the number. They have PHO on deck and you wonder how interested they are vs an improving Port squad. With Portland trying to be more aggressive would have to think over 205. Had expected 11.5 or 12 here with Port improving....
Spurs @ GSW :
Duncan should return and SA has owned the Warriors. I think GSW is in a mini funk right now and taking way , way to many 3 pters!! Spurs have won 9 of 10 only losing in a bad spot @ Sac plus they beat Dallas and Utah w/o Duncan....
Curious to see a number would expect SA -3 .....
CBB:
Small schedule had expected a -2 with Bradley @ Wright St....so not sure there. Not familiar enough with ULL to guess a number thought bewteen -9.5 and -11.5....we have -11.5..... , Expected -3.5 with So Ill and thinking about playing 1st H So.Ill cause the number is probably a bit soft due to recent play of these teams. However 1st true road game vs STMarys and they started slowly vs SDST in a neutral site game . Had expected -11 maybe -11.5 with Valpo we see -10.5. Which makes me thinks that Evansville will be a play. Valpo is catching alot of action lately and I would have thought they would have inflated the number slightily...
Last is Oregon hosting Sac State! I kinda expected higher maybe even 35 /36. They have some common opponents and Sac State gets smoked where as Oregon smoked those same teams...
Sac St +22.5 @ Kansas State lost by 30. Tough place to play but I think on a neutral court Oregon is 6 or 7 points better..., they caught +30 @ Stanford and covered now I think again Oregon is 6 or 7 better on a neutral court , how bout Pacifuc and SF ...at -32 orcheaper it seems some sort of Oregon play is in order..maybe 1st H ....they should win by 30 rather easily......
bad signs allowing 47% from 3 pt land and then hitting just 54& from the FT line...Last home game for Oregon for awhile they should win 100-65 after shaking off some rust vs Utah.
See what tmrw brings.....
I only wish I could listen to me. ATL is what ithas been for 14 weeks......TERRIBLE ! This year more then any terrible NFL teams have been TERRIBLE week after week...
Now in PHO the Suns tie up and fall apart....great sign your fucked...3rd Quarter - 1:39
Will miracles never cease? Shaquille O´Neal is 4 for 4 from the free throw line, can´t remember the last time I´ve been able to say that where he is considered.
I guess my day ended when I passed on ATL and the UNDER then double up on the Philly UNDER.....
Now in PHO the Suns tie up and fall apart....great sign your fucked...3rd Quarter - 1:39
Will miracles never cease? Shaquille O´Neal is 4 for 4 from the free throw line, can´t remember the last time I´ve been able to say that where he is considered.
I guess my day ended when I passed on ATL and the UNDER then double up on the Philly UNDER.....
Also all PROPS to Drew Brees he played an excellent and basically flawless 1st H. To think we had NO pinned twice inside the 10 yd line( hell on the 1) and couldnt stop them. Dont like that soft zone ATL has shown...hopefully the Falons either come backor just go to bed early and help my under hit.....
2nd H Suns -10.5
From CBS SPORTSLINE
The half comes to a close with the Heat leading the Suns 67-63. This is the best offensive performance so far this season for Miami, beating their previous high of 66 points. It looked like they may have been getting a little tired towards the end of the half as they were missing alot more shots and having mental lapses on defense.
Add in the fact they shot 2 FTs....oh and hit 32-43, 74% from the floor! 74% and lead by 3 POINTS!!!!!
The Suns seemed to wake up and Miami will be playing the 2nd H of a 4th in 5 nights , remember the SUns in the 4th quarter vs Minny ?? Nash has 1 point vs Quinn but the one knock I see is Amare's 3 fouls??
did play Bucks +3 1st H cause I think 5.5 is ridiculous for SAC to lay and UNDER 198.5.....
2nd H Suns -10.5
From CBS SPORTSLINE
The half comes to a close with the Heat leading the Suns 67-63. This is the best offensive performance so far this season for Miami, beating their previous high of 66 points. It looked like they may have been getting a little tired towards the end of the half as they were missing alot more shots and having mental lapses on defense.
Add in the fact they shot 2 FTs....oh and hit 32-43, 74% from the floor! 74% and lead by 3 POINTS!!!!!
The Suns seemed to wake up and Miami will be playing the 2nd H of a 4th in 5 nights , remember the SUns in the 4th quarter vs Minny ?? Nash has 1 point vs Quinn but the one knock I see is Amare's 3 fouls??
did play Bucks +3 1st H cause I think 5.5 is ridiculous for SAC to lay and UNDER 198.5.....
My UNLUCKY streak continues ! really didnt deserve to have a shot at the UNDER 182 in Philly but why foul down 12 with 29 seconds left ?? Stuck on 180 pts all Philly owuld have done was run out the shot clock so if they missed game was probably finished at 180. Naturally I tried to play U 92 2nd H and it goes off as I submit , then factor in passing on ATL and UNDER only to play 2nd H over 99 , the only break so far was passing on NYK and thats not over yet!!!! Need some OT help in ORL to have any chance and that probably wont happen......at least I was smart to lay off the Suns for now....FRUSTRATED !!! Had thought about 1st Q ATL +1/2 and Over 7.5 but not suprisingly passed!
Looking at the late games in NBA and NHL....BOL
Looking at the late games in NBA and NHL....BOL
More NBA :
Heat @ Suns :
Terrible spot for both teams . Miami playing 4th in 5 days on a long West Coast trip( b2b) with the absence of two guards Willaims and Parker. The Suns are laos playing 5th in 7 days off an East Coast trip.
I would expect zero defense here. Typically I like to fade teams in there 1st game back home after a long trip. However I also like to fade teams in there 4th in 5 spot. Probably would think Miami is in the worse spot here playing PHO in a 4 / 5 spot.....so have to lean Suns here..
basically off a LOSS against a tired team I took the 1st quarter OVER 55.5 . Plan on taking SUns 2nd H so gambling the 1st H isnt so bad........nash himself talked about how tough it was to play a 4th in 5 (5th in 7 actually) on a different coast all on the road and Miami is in a similiar spot....especially shorthanded and banged up some...
Shaquille O'Neal added eight points and eight rebounds in 33 minutes, but again sat out down the stretch as Riley used Alonzo Mourning the final 1:07. O'Neal, who was critical of teammates earlier in the week for not getting him the ball more, has averaged just 9.4 points his last five games and 14.6 for the season - well off his career mark of 25.7 points per game.
"Zo is a little more mobile than Shaq right now," Riley said. "You could see that Shaq was laboring a little bit because of his thigh, so he was dragging his leg around doing the best job he could do. (Mourning's) a shot blocker, he's a big body and everybody knows he's coming. He gives our players confidence because he can get up there and he has such good timing."
Heat @ Suns :
Terrible spot for both teams . Miami playing 4th in 5 days on a long West Coast trip( b2b) with the absence of two guards Willaims and Parker. The Suns are laos playing 5th in 7 days off an East Coast trip.
I would expect zero defense here. Typically I like to fade teams in there 1st game back home after a long trip. However I also like to fade teams in there 4th in 5 spot. Probably would think Miami is in the worse spot here playing PHO in a 4 / 5 spot.....so have to lean Suns here..
basically off a LOSS against a tired team I took the 1st quarter OVER 55.5 . Plan on taking SUns 2nd H so gambling the 1st H isnt so bad........nash himself talked about how tough it was to play a 4th in 5 (5th in 7 actually) on a different coast all on the road and Miami is in a similiar spot....especially shorthanded and banged up some...
Shaquille O'Neal added eight points and eight rebounds in 33 minutes, but again sat out down the stretch as Riley used Alonzo Mourning the final 1:07. O'Neal, who was critical of teammates earlier in the week for not getting him the ball more, has averaged just 9.4 points his last five games and 14.6 for the season - well off his career mark of 25.7 points per game.
"Zo is a little more mobile than Shaq right now," Riley said. "You could see that Shaq was laboring a little bit because of his thigh, so he was dragging his leg around doing the best job he could do. (Mourning's) a shot blocker, he's a big body and everybody knows he's coming. He gives our players confidence because he can get up there and he has such good timing."
NBA :
Houston @ Philly :
Suddenly the Sixers have shown life giving the Celtics all they can handle then defetaing NYK in both ends of a home and home series. The Rockets are playing there
3rd road game in 4 days. In the previous two they jumped out to huge 1st H leads only to squander them in the 2nd H . However yesterday they squandered the WIN not just the big halftime lead! Last season they smoked the Sixers in both meetings including by 50 @ Philly. Revenge here or just an impossible uphill climb?? Worse is they struggled toscore in both meetings.
You would think Alston is out with a strained groin. If he couldnt go yesterday I dont think 1 day would be that much of a difference but I dont know for sure. For Philly they will be w/o key bench player Louis Williams.
Due to Philly's increased play of late coupled with Alston's probable absence and 3rd roadie in 4 days I like Philly. However I felt we would see +7 here and we have lost some of that value along with key reserve Louis Williams. games vs Eastern teams on the road have been lower scoring ....think you have to pencil in Philly for 85 points despite there recent play and would guess this game dosnt crack 178 points....
UNDER 183 and +6
Atl @ Orlando :
Once teams go on huge runs they tend to have a fall back period it appears both ORL and GSW are in that category now. ORL in a bad spot returning home from a West Coast trip lost SU to INDY at home. Now they did have significant rest which should have helped overcome the negative situation. So I am not expecting a bounce back effort here. The Hawks have been staying in the mid 80's while ORL seems to have adopted a quicker pace like its recent West Coast opponents though playing Indy doesnt help.
Under 195 and +10
Dallas @ NYK :
Marbury will sit out . The Knicks were terrible last outing and have beat Denver and Utah at home while battling Pho despite losing the cover late . Dallas has shown no conisitency but owned NY in the past. Mavs are only 4-6 on the road but what can you expect from NYK here ??Dallas hasnt played any defense and neither has NYK. You would best be suited to play the 1st H over though...
NYK +9
My PC froze and this didnt get submitted . Only played : Under 182 Philly and Philly +6. Passed on my leans of ATL , UNDER 195.5 , Dallas +9 cause I filled with self doubt of late!! BOL
Houston @ Philly :
Suddenly the Sixers have shown life giving the Celtics all they can handle then defetaing NYK in both ends of a home and home series. The Rockets are playing there
3rd road game in 4 days. In the previous two they jumped out to huge 1st H leads only to squander them in the 2nd H . However yesterday they squandered the WIN not just the big halftime lead! Last season they smoked the Sixers in both meetings including by 50 @ Philly. Revenge here or just an impossible uphill climb?? Worse is they struggled toscore in both meetings.
You would think Alston is out with a strained groin. If he couldnt go yesterday I dont think 1 day would be that much of a difference but I dont know for sure. For Philly they will be w/o key bench player Louis Williams.
Due to Philly's increased play of late coupled with Alston's probable absence and 3rd roadie in 4 days I like Philly. However I felt we would see +7 here and we have lost some of that value along with key reserve Louis Williams. games vs Eastern teams on the road have been lower scoring ....think you have to pencil in Philly for 85 points despite there recent play and would guess this game dosnt crack 178 points....
UNDER 183 and +6
Atl @ Orlando :
Once teams go on huge runs they tend to have a fall back period it appears both ORL and GSW are in that category now. ORL in a bad spot returning home from a West Coast trip lost SU to INDY at home. Now they did have significant rest which should have helped overcome the negative situation. So I am not expecting a bounce back effort here. The Hawks have been staying in the mid 80's while ORL seems to have adopted a quicker pace like its recent West Coast opponents though playing Indy doesnt help.
Under 195 and +10
Dallas @ NYK :
Marbury will sit out . The Knicks were terrible last outing and have beat Denver and Utah at home while battling Pho despite losing the cover late . Dallas has shown no conisitency but owned NY in the past. Mavs are only 4-6 on the road but what can you expect from NYK here ??Dallas hasnt played any defense and neither has NYK. You would best be suited to play the 1st H over though...
NYK +9
My PC froze and this didnt get submitted . Only played : Under 182 Philly and Philly +6. Passed on my leans of ATL , UNDER 195.5 , Dallas +9 cause I filled with self doubt of late!! BOL
Since I feel like I have researched this game to no end my conclusions stay the same. The Falcons can WIN this game if they simply do not self destruct like they did vs Carolina , TB , and even the Colts and Giants to some degree. The problem is that ATL has made this a trait of there team and how do you break it in week 14 ?? Possibly through better QB play which could increase overall team confidence( this is my guess at how they will). No one believes Insurance Salesman Chris Redman is a savior but who was Luke McCown before last week when he traveled to face the Saints?? I know he was a guy who basically had last played in a few games in 2004 for Cleveland !!! That 109 passer rating wasnt to shabby! Back to those COSTLY penalties that keep drives alive the Hall taunting on Steve Smith , the Giant game had more then a few , the roughing the punter vs Indy , the shoddy play vs TB that lead to points for TB , etc. You have to have discipline and focus to keep that from occuring. Again something tough to resolve in week 14 but through better QB play the team in general has less plays to make and less time to foul up.
The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.
So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.
Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!
What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....
At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....
Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.
Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50
Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL
The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.
So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.
Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!
What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....
At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....
Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.
Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50
Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL
You call this Monday Night Football????? Saints visit the Falcons!!
Long ago Deuce McAllister was lost for the season and now the underacheiving but ever exciting Reggie Bush will hang with him on the sidelines. That means once again we have a 3rd string player in a star position !! This year more then any the injuries seem to have piled on for certain tams at certain positions. Now they turn to Aaron Stecker who has been largely unproductive running the ball this season especially on the 2 occassions he received 10 + carries( not a great indicator cause he wasnt the featured back like he will be here). Really though with Bush struggling as a featured back will there be a dropoff ? Stecker can catch the ball as well. Clearly he is not the gifted athlete that Bush is and that is what they lose. That explosiveness and big play ability.
Flip to Atlanta and they are basically riding with there 4th string QB a guy who was out of the league for 3 years in Chris Redman. To throw more chaos into the situation the Vick sentencing will be shortly before kickoff( a few hours). Update: He recieved 23 months in prison. You would believe there are going to be some ATL players more focused on the sentencing then the GAME. Finally Jerious Norwood has been dubbed the starter , hopefully he continues to get more carries. Despite terrible QB play Roddy White has emerged with 62 catches and 900+ yards which include four 100+ yd recieving games including the last two games. One of which was the 1st meeting in NO when Leftwich and Harrington played. It appears Crumpler is back in form after 7 catches last week as well.
The bottomline is Redman. How do you put a value on this guy ?? He came into a game down 21-3 late 3rd quarter and moved the ball versus a very average defense that had probably grown complacent . You flip back to his BALT days and his numbers were decent when he started and they were fairly solid last week. Redman's play is so key beyond the obvious because even his offense said it felt some sort of confidence with him in there watching him make plays and move the ball. That NEEDS to carry over here.
How many times have we gone over the MNF angle which STATES that UNLESS the SPRESAD is DOUBLE DIGITS you simply need to pick the SU winner and forgo the spread. Meaning if you think the fav wins lay the points but if you think the DOG wins then take the ML!!
The Falcons after switching to Leftwich seemed to really fall apart. Looking at the Saints season besides that "ODD" massacre win @ Seattle on SNF what impresses you about this team? They are 1-3 past 4 games only winning at AWFUL Carolina while losing @ Houston and HOME vs STL and TB with Luke McCown and Earnest Graham !! On the season they snuck by ATL @ home , defeated Quinny Gray and the JAGS , and beat up on SF !! The Saints defense got back some of its missing pieces and were shredded by McCown and TB last week. They allowed 466 yards of offense compared to NO 246 and let the game get away late ! Now they MUST win out to have a shot at the playoffs. There defense didnt look so good @ Houston allowing Schaub in his return a solid afternoon. Redman seems comfortable due to his familiarity with Petrino from there Louisville days.
The key is simply Redman's play , ATL focus and the offensive play calling. With backs like Dunn and Norwood compared to Stecker and Thomas the Falcons should be able to control TOP. With 1 supposed shutdown corner they should also shrink the field of play for New Orleans. That should lead to better play by their defense.
Simply put the Saints have NOT played anywhere near the level it did last season. Thinking at 5-7 they have a shot at the playoffs seems like a fantasy to me. They couldnt defeat Luke McCown and the Bucs at home in a game to get to 500 and shrink the division lead. Now traveling to ATL and cause its LABELED a must win spot they will play well?? Nah !! However ATL has been great at self destructing see Car , NYG and Indy home losses and will be relying on Redman to lead !!!
Has anyone seen a sign that ATL has quit ? The rallied last week on the road when trailing 21-0 at half , they started good vs Indy leading 13-7 upon until the 23 minute mark ....the effort seems to be there.....
Not sure but the Falcons ML would have in my eyes more value then laying the points.....STRONG LEAN : ATL ML
You have to wonder who has more momentum if there is such a thing here....ATL rallying to almost comeback and win on the road now returning home Or New Orleans choking a way a key Win at home now traveling??????
Long ago Deuce McAllister was lost for the season and now the underacheiving but ever exciting Reggie Bush will hang with him on the sidelines. That means once again we have a 3rd string player in a star position !! This year more then any the injuries seem to have piled on for certain tams at certain positions. Now they turn to Aaron Stecker who has been largely unproductive running the ball this season especially on the 2 occassions he received 10 + carries( not a great indicator cause he wasnt the featured back like he will be here). Really though with Bush struggling as a featured back will there be a dropoff ? Stecker can catch the ball as well. Clearly he is not the gifted athlete that Bush is and that is what they lose. That explosiveness and big play ability.
Flip to Atlanta and they are basically riding with there 4th string QB a guy who was out of the league for 3 years in Chris Redman. To throw more chaos into the situation the Vick sentencing will be shortly before kickoff( a few hours). Update: He recieved 23 months in prison. You would believe there are going to be some ATL players more focused on the sentencing then the GAME. Finally Jerious Norwood has been dubbed the starter , hopefully he continues to get more carries. Despite terrible QB play Roddy White has emerged with 62 catches and 900+ yards which include four 100+ yd recieving games including the last two games. One of which was the 1st meeting in NO when Leftwich and Harrington played. It appears Crumpler is back in form after 7 catches last week as well.
The bottomline is Redman. How do you put a value on this guy ?? He came into a game down 21-3 late 3rd quarter and moved the ball versus a very average defense that had probably grown complacent . You flip back to his BALT days and his numbers were decent when he started and they were fairly solid last week. Redman's play is so key beyond the obvious because even his offense said it felt some sort of confidence with him in there watching him make plays and move the ball. That NEEDS to carry over here.
How many times have we gone over the MNF angle which STATES that UNLESS the SPRESAD is DOUBLE DIGITS you simply need to pick the SU winner and forgo the spread. Meaning if you think the fav wins lay the points but if you think the DOG wins then take the ML!!
The Falcons after switching to Leftwich seemed to really fall apart. Looking at the Saints season besides that "ODD" massacre win @ Seattle on SNF what impresses you about this team? They are 1-3 past 4 games only winning at AWFUL Carolina while losing @ Houston and HOME vs STL and TB with Luke McCown and Earnest Graham !! On the season they snuck by ATL @ home , defeated Quinny Gray and the JAGS , and beat up on SF !! The Saints defense got back some of its missing pieces and were shredded by McCown and TB last week. They allowed 466 yards of offense compared to NO 246 and let the game get away late ! Now they MUST win out to have a shot at the playoffs. There defense didnt look so good @ Houston allowing Schaub in his return a solid afternoon. Redman seems comfortable due to his familiarity with Petrino from there Louisville days.
The key is simply Redman's play , ATL focus and the offensive play calling. With backs like Dunn and Norwood compared to Stecker and Thomas the Falcons should be able to control TOP. With 1 supposed shutdown corner they should also shrink the field of play for New Orleans. That should lead to better play by their defense.
Simply put the Saints have NOT played anywhere near the level it did last season. Thinking at 5-7 they have a shot at the playoffs seems like a fantasy to me. They couldnt defeat Luke McCown and the Bucs at home in a game to get to 500 and shrink the division lead. Now traveling to ATL and cause its LABELED a must win spot they will play well?? Nah !! However ATL has been great at self destructing see Car , NYG and Indy home losses and will be relying on Redman to lead !!!
Has anyone seen a sign that ATL has quit ? The rallied last week on the road when trailing 21-0 at half , they started good vs Indy leading 13-7 upon until the 23 minute mark ....the effort seems to be there.....
Not sure but the Falcons ML would have in my eyes more value then laying the points.....STRONG LEAN : ATL ML
You have to wonder who has more momentum if there is such a thing here....ATL rallying to almost comeback and win on the road now returning home Or New Orleans choking a way a key Win at home now traveling??????
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Random NFL Thoughts :
Miami @ Buffalo :
- As a reminder back in Dec '03 the Phins with Jay Feidler @ QB went to Buffalo in 35 degree weather and 3 pt dogs leaving with a 20-3 win. The had 169 total yards of offense that day and 12 penalties. Just for the theory of the warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue in Dec angle. As well as the recent Miami MNF game in Pitt with the terrible weather and worse field.
- Miami is 0-6 AWAY with 4 losses by 3 points and 2 losses by 10 points. If they converted 1st goal from the 1 yd line @ Philly it would have been 5 of the 6 losses by 3 points ( they didn't I know coulda, woulda, shoulda). You could include the London game in this discussion which they lost 13-10 which would make 5 of 7 by THREE points. The funny part and I would attribute it to better opposition and more pressure to win is they have been smoked at HOME with only 1 LOSS by three points , against Buffalo . Dallas 17 , NE 21, NYJ 27, and Oakland 18 have traveled to Miami and smoked them by at least 17 points!!
- Miami is down to 3rd string QB Rookie John Beck . Who being he played @ BYU could be moe prepared for the weather the Buffalo Rookie Trent Edwards of Stanford. Just a thought. Remember it supposed to rain which I guess could be snow if Temps permit but remember Becj just played in rainy weather @ Pitt and did fairly well. The Phins if Chatman is unavailable or limited could be down to 4th and 5th RB's in Samkon Gado and Lorenzo Booker. Both got there 1st Miami carries last week. Gado burst onto the scene in 05 with three 100+ games in the 5 which he saw at least 20 carries. They have lost most of there passing leaders when Chambers was dealt and Ronnie Brown went down with injury. Ted Ginn Jr has stepped it up some in recent weeks. Basically the Phins have been left without playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. If thats not enough Marty Booker appears to be a gametime decision. Who starts Hagan & Ginn ?? Lots of two TE sets??
- For Buffalo Trent Edwards is 4-1 as a starter actually 1 point and 1 late FG short of being undefeated. He defeated NYJ and Balt narrowly at home will winning @ NYJ( with help from Losman) and Wash last week. I finally think the chinks in the defense have shown in recent weeks more so the pass defense. They did keep Wash in check especially on the ground but Wash also was 1 of 4 in the red zone settling for 3 short FGs ( the longest being 33 yds) and also were 1-2 in goal to go situations. So the opportunity was there to score against them. The previous weeks Jax had 36 but 17 fourth quarter points and NE had 50 ++ . However again vs Jax the Jags managed 1-5 in the red zone and 0-2 in goal to go situations! They allowed TWO 50+ YD TD plays. Also with Edwards in there instead of Losman Lee Evans cannot be the big play WR he is. Edwards just doesnt throw it as well deep and probably wont be asked to do it much.
- Buffalo could have Lynch back running the ball but A-Train is still OUT leaving Fred Jackson again in a position of need.
- On paper you look at this and ask how can Miami score ? How is Buffalo just -7 when they were small favs as much as -3 in Miami with Lemon and Chatman healthy. Wouldnt -10 make more sense?? I think partially with poor teams its just not as cut and dry as home field is worth 3 or 3.5 pts. Some HOME teams have ZERO Home value and thats what looks like what is going in Miami. The last meeting was basicaly dominanted by Miami and they lost ! Most players felt that was the TOUGHEST close loss of all although the Pitt game didnt take place at the time of those comments.
The Dolphins committed no turnovers, allowed Buffalo to convert only two third downs and benefited from a big day by journeyman Jesse Chatman, who rushed for a career-high 124 yards. Still they lost.
He then ran for the 2-point conversion, spinning across the goal after he was hit to make it 10-all.
Miami's Ted Ginn Jr. returned the kickoff 86 yards for an apparent touchdown, but the score was negated by a holding penalty on Greg Camarillo."I wish that could have been the play to take us into a victory," said Camarillo, his voice shaking with emotion half an hour after the game. "I thought it was a fair play, but the refs called it, and I'm guilty. I'll take the blame for it."
The Dolphins made two first downs before punting, and Roscoe Parrish returned the kick 40 yards to midfield with 4:37 left. Buffalo converted two third-down situations to move to the 16 and set up Lindell's field goal.
- Miami lost Cameron Worrell being replaced by Lance Schulters in the starting lineup and CB Michael Lehan did not practice on Friday.
-NO matter how you look it at the Dolphins are one of the worst teams on paper I can recall in 20 years.
So my feeling is this again a game where the weather neutralizes the offenses. On paper Buffalo laying just 7 seems cheap versus this Miami lineup. However if the weather is what it appears to be then we could be looking at another bore fest !! And my gut seems to think Miami plays well here after the SHIT FEST last Sunday. The KEY is watching the weather in the AM and early afternoon
Rams @ Bengals :
- Somehow the RAMS should be winners of 5 straight. However losing Jackson to injury vs Cle lead them to blow an early big lead and followed suit a few weeks later when Bulger went down vs Seattle . Still they are 3-2 L5 with two road wins. The problem here is not only is Bulger OUT but Frerotte is UNABLE to start as well . Leaving Brock Berlin in his NFL debut.....on the road , in bad weather , and on grass!
Berlin has been on the practice squad all year and hardly even worked with the Rams' wide receivers in practice this week.The smallish, weak-armed former Florida Gator and Miami Hurricane knows Scott Linehan's system, but that's about it. Berlin's addition signals the Rams could be preparing to be without Marc Bulger (head) in Week 13 oh BOY!!!
- One would think Stephen Jackson and the running game will see alot of action. This could be troublesome though if you look at Cincy vs the RUN past few games. They did a solid job @ Pitt vs Willie Parker , at home Tenny and then Edge did very little. Even McGahee @ Balt was slowed 17c 60yds. So being they can stop the RUN suddenly it seems STL is in for along tough day as Berlin is in a terrible SPOT! Remember there OL has been an issue all season! There defense has some injuries as well.
- Outside of the game @ NO when all were healthy the Rams OFFENSE has been non existant on the road.
While the RAMS defense concerns along with the possibility of Berlin giving a potent offense short fields you have to like UND 45.5 , Under 17.5 Rams team (guessing) and I may have to tease Cincy to EVEN with something else....
Oakland @ GB :
This will be GB at it's FINEST ! Weather that is...15 to 20 degrees!!!! GB can CLINCH a playoff game and HOME playoff game as well as the CENTRAL with a home win.
- This really sets up as an interesting game for a few reasons. First you wonder if now that GB has lost (again) if the air is out of there bubble?? Sort of a flat period ..?? Not sure just wondering and think it's highly possible. The cold weather with warm weather OAK coming to town. Very interesting !! Luckily its a 1 PM game when the sun should be out still and not be as miserable as later start would be. Still pretty rough situation. However the STORY is Brett Favre !! Folks he didnt return vs Dallas ...not a good sign , Rodgers is OUT with Nall as backup...not a good sign , inconsistent reports on his injury....not a good sign ...seperated left shoulder Or his elbow ?? Worse is if his left shoulder is seperated think what being slammed down to the ground ..uhm Frozen Tundra will do to that !!!
- The GB run defense has been somewhat subpar of late allowing 4.3 YPC past 3 games. You can't be to excited by the WINS vs Carolina w/o Steve Smith and Minny with Bollinger @ QB . They do have the benfit of some exra rest here. As well as probably seeing KGB and Woodson return although you dont know how the extreme cold factors into this.
- OAK playing better and relatively healthy are traveling for 3rd time in 4 weeks and into a different time zone. The Raiders are playing better even winning consecutive divisional games!! However they have been shredded on the ground on the road allowing all opponents starting RB in excess of 100+ yards actually Travis Henry had the low of 128!!!!!! Grant has been solid running the rock but Justin Fargas has been just as good probably better past few games. OAK is 4-2 ATS away this year....
Based mainly on my belief that Favre is less then 100% and could see limited action the +10.5 / +11 is the play with a possible UNDER sprinkled in .
Still looking at the OTHER 5 early starts ! Though really seem to like Car +11 and Over 38 -120 , Philly and the Lions.....Good Luck
Miami @ Buffalo :
- As a reminder back in Dec '03 the Phins with Jay Feidler @ QB went to Buffalo in 35 degree weather and 3 pt dogs leaving with a 20-3 win. The had 169 total yards of offense that day and 12 penalties. Just for the theory of the warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue in Dec angle. As well as the recent Miami MNF game in Pitt with the terrible weather and worse field.
- Miami is 0-6 AWAY with 4 losses by 3 points and 2 losses by 10 points. If they converted 1st goal from the 1 yd line @ Philly it would have been 5 of the 6 losses by 3 points ( they didn't I know coulda, woulda, shoulda). You could include the London game in this discussion which they lost 13-10 which would make 5 of 7 by THREE points. The funny part and I would attribute it to better opposition and more pressure to win is they have been smoked at HOME with only 1 LOSS by three points , against Buffalo . Dallas 17 , NE 21, NYJ 27, and Oakland 18 have traveled to Miami and smoked them by at least 17 points!!
- Miami is down to 3rd string QB Rookie John Beck . Who being he played @ BYU could be moe prepared for the weather the Buffalo Rookie Trent Edwards of Stanford. Just a thought. Remember it supposed to rain which I guess could be snow if Temps permit but remember Becj just played in rainy weather @ Pitt and did fairly well. The Phins if Chatman is unavailable or limited could be down to 4th and 5th RB's in Samkon Gado and Lorenzo Booker. Both got there 1st Miami carries last week. Gado burst onto the scene in 05 with three 100+ games in the 5 which he saw at least 20 carries. They have lost most of there passing leaders when Chambers was dealt and Ronnie Brown went down with injury. Ted Ginn Jr has stepped it up some in recent weeks. Basically the Phins have been left without playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. If thats not enough Marty Booker appears to be a gametime decision. Who starts Hagan & Ginn ?? Lots of two TE sets??
- For Buffalo Trent Edwards is 4-1 as a starter actually 1 point and 1 late FG short of being undefeated. He defeated NYJ and Balt narrowly at home will winning @ NYJ( with help from Losman) and Wash last week. I finally think the chinks in the defense have shown in recent weeks more so the pass defense. They did keep Wash in check especially on the ground but Wash also was 1 of 4 in the red zone settling for 3 short FGs ( the longest being 33 yds) and also were 1-2 in goal to go situations. So the opportunity was there to score against them. The previous weeks Jax had 36 but 17 fourth quarter points and NE had 50 ++ . However again vs Jax the Jags managed 1-5 in the red zone and 0-2 in goal to go situations! They allowed TWO 50+ YD TD plays. Also with Edwards in there instead of Losman Lee Evans cannot be the big play WR he is. Edwards just doesnt throw it as well deep and probably wont be asked to do it much.
- Buffalo could have Lynch back running the ball but A-Train is still OUT leaving Fred Jackson again in a position of need.
- On paper you look at this and ask how can Miami score ? How is Buffalo just -7 when they were small favs as much as -3 in Miami with Lemon and Chatman healthy. Wouldnt -10 make more sense?? I think partially with poor teams its just not as cut and dry as home field is worth 3 or 3.5 pts. Some HOME teams have ZERO Home value and thats what looks like what is going in Miami. The last meeting was basicaly dominanted by Miami and they lost ! Most players felt that was the TOUGHEST close loss of all although the Pitt game didnt take place at the time of those comments.
The Dolphins committed no turnovers, allowed Buffalo to convert only two third downs and benefited from a big day by journeyman Jesse Chatman, who rushed for a career-high 124 yards. Still they lost.
He then ran for the 2-point conversion, spinning across the goal after he was hit to make it 10-all.
Miami's Ted Ginn Jr. returned the kickoff 86 yards for an apparent touchdown, but the score was negated by a holding penalty on Greg Camarillo."I wish that could have been the play to take us into a victory," said Camarillo, his voice shaking with emotion half an hour after the game. "I thought it was a fair play, but the refs called it, and I'm guilty. I'll take the blame for it."
The Dolphins made two first downs before punting, and Roscoe Parrish returned the kick 40 yards to midfield with 4:37 left. Buffalo converted two third-down situations to move to the 16 and set up Lindell's field goal.
- Miami lost Cameron Worrell being replaced by Lance Schulters in the starting lineup and CB Michael Lehan did not practice on Friday.
-NO matter how you look it at the Dolphins are one of the worst teams on paper I can recall in 20 years.
So my feeling is this again a game where the weather neutralizes the offenses. On paper Buffalo laying just 7 seems cheap versus this Miami lineup. However if the weather is what it appears to be then we could be looking at another bore fest !! And my gut seems to think Miami plays well here after the SHIT FEST last Sunday. The KEY is watching the weather in the AM and early afternoon
Rams @ Bengals :
- Somehow the RAMS should be winners of 5 straight. However losing Jackson to injury vs Cle lead them to blow an early big lead and followed suit a few weeks later when Bulger went down vs Seattle . Still they are 3-2 L5 with two road wins. The problem here is not only is Bulger OUT but Frerotte is UNABLE to start as well . Leaving Brock Berlin in his NFL debut.....on the road , in bad weather , and on grass!
Berlin has been on the practice squad all year and hardly even worked with the Rams' wide receivers in practice this week.The smallish, weak-armed former Florida Gator and Miami Hurricane knows Scott Linehan's system, but that's about it. Berlin's addition signals the Rams could be preparing to be without Marc Bulger (head) in Week 13 oh BOY!!!
- One would think Stephen Jackson and the running game will see alot of action. This could be troublesome though if you look at Cincy vs the RUN past few games. They did a solid job @ Pitt vs Willie Parker , at home Tenny and then Edge did very little. Even McGahee @ Balt was slowed 17c 60yds. So being they can stop the RUN suddenly it seems STL is in for along tough day as Berlin is in a terrible SPOT! Remember there OL has been an issue all season! There defense has some injuries as well.
- Outside of the game @ NO when all were healthy the Rams OFFENSE has been non existant on the road.
While the RAMS defense concerns along with the possibility of Berlin giving a potent offense short fields you have to like UND 45.5 , Under 17.5 Rams team (guessing) and I may have to tease Cincy to EVEN with something else....
Oakland @ GB :
This will be GB at it's FINEST ! Weather that is...15 to 20 degrees!!!! GB can CLINCH a playoff game and HOME playoff game as well as the CENTRAL with a home win.
- This really sets up as an interesting game for a few reasons. First you wonder if now that GB has lost (again) if the air is out of there bubble?? Sort of a flat period ..?? Not sure just wondering and think it's highly possible. The cold weather with warm weather OAK coming to town. Very interesting !! Luckily its a 1 PM game when the sun should be out still and not be as miserable as later start would be. Still pretty rough situation. However the STORY is Brett Favre !! Folks he didnt return vs Dallas ...not a good sign , Rodgers is OUT with Nall as backup...not a good sign , inconsistent reports on his injury....not a good sign ...seperated left shoulder Or his elbow ?? Worse is if his left shoulder is seperated think what being slammed down to the ground ..uhm Frozen Tundra will do to that !!!
- The GB run defense has been somewhat subpar of late allowing 4.3 YPC past 3 games. You can't be to excited by the WINS vs Carolina w/o Steve Smith and Minny with Bollinger @ QB . They do have the benfit of some exra rest here. As well as probably seeing KGB and Woodson return although you dont know how the extreme cold factors into this.
- OAK playing better and relatively healthy are traveling for 3rd time in 4 weeks and into a different time zone. The Raiders are playing better even winning consecutive divisional games!! However they have been shredded on the ground on the road allowing all opponents starting RB in excess of 100+ yards actually Travis Henry had the low of 128!!!!!! Grant has been solid running the rock but Justin Fargas has been just as good probably better past few games. OAK is 4-2 ATS away this year....
Based mainly on my belief that Favre is less then 100% and could see limited action the +10.5 / +11 is the play with a possible UNDER sprinkled in .
Still looking at the OTHER 5 early starts ! Though really seem to like Car +11 and Over 38 -120 , Philly and the Lions.....Good Luck
Monday, December 03, 2007
Monday NBA:
Charlotte @ Toronto :
The Bobcats have decided to start Jared Dudley in place of Primo Brezec. Which should slide Okefor over to the middle and put Dudley @ PF. Brezec really had not done much and seen a considerable dropoff from a few seasons ago. Basically Char is going smaller and you would think they may be play a bit faster pace. Raptors will be w/o Bosh , Bargnani and Ford it looks like on Monday. Which leaves Delfino , Calderon , Moon , Nesterovic , Kapono and Parker. With Dixon , Baston , Humphries , Graham and Martin . Now in the loss @ Wash the Raps got next to nothing from Ford and Bargnani.
Cats are searching for answers losing 5 straight including two tough losses in OT vs Wash and Boston. They have lost 8 of 10 in the series vs Toronto. You would expect a faster paced game.
The OVER 189 and due to value a play on Char +4 and / or ML. Just think how they struggled with Cle at home when Lebron was absent ....Bargnani played well that night ...
Atl @ Philly :
Sixers have won 8 of 10 in the series. Here are two teams you can't figure out. They are models for inconsistency despite being poor to begin with. Philly looked good for most of there past 5 games but they tend to play 1 good half and follow it with one awful half. A great team if leading at HALF to fade. On paper ATL is the better team but there PG issues keep them medicore at best.
I would have suspected more of a PK line so I would prefer ATL +3. Even though my 1st intinct was Philly wins this game. The total is spot on at 180 cause offense woes are obvious for both. ATL has played 6 straight unders and they have only cracked 180 once(181). This game looks to be played in the 80's...
Portland @ Memphis:
The Blazers have been terrible of late especially on the offensive side of the ball. However this game smells of OVERREACTION. The Grizz did smoke Minny who was short a few bodies off a tough home loss to SA. Remember when they were outscored by a TON in the 4th quarter. Portland looked terrible yesterday but did beat Memphis earlier in Portland. I would have expected more like -6 here...while the pace should be fast wouldnt take an over @ 204 when they continue to score about 85 points. Now being terrible on the road is one thing to consider as Dallas was one of there first ATS covers that were NOT a SU win.
Dallas @ Chicago :
With the struggles they are facing it is hard to back Dallas at this point. On the other hand can we be happy with CHI after consecutive wins?? Type of game it may be better to watch a Half before getting involved. The total seems low to me but has moved lower. I would have expected this game to be around 190 . The games in Chicagotend to be around 190 pts so no value either way but a higher total 194 ish would have put me on the UNDER...
Miami @ Utah :
Miami has stunk in most of there recnt games especially the past two. However they do own 7 straight wins against UTAH. The two times that Miami caught big numbers they covered this season. However Utah has laid some beatdowns in Utah and Miami is coming off a game in Denver. The Heat havent scored much on the road and they need to play in the low 90's to keep it a game. The problem with Utah is they have scored a ton at home and there ercnt games have played OVER despite few times where they allowed even 95 points.....
Orl @ GSW :
One of the game sthat a situational / professional bettor loves to see. Two hot teams squaring off but the Magic ending a 5 game Western swing coming off tough games in Pho and LAL. Orl is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when most teams fail to be able to cover an entire trip .
GS is simply playing excellent balland to me is the hottest team in the NBA. Couped with the situational aspect youhave to like the home squad. I would guess professional bettors jumped on GSW -1 and pushed it to -3.....
The total seems high so would lean UNDER....
Charlotte @ Toronto :
The Bobcats have decided to start Jared Dudley in place of Primo Brezec. Which should slide Okefor over to the middle and put Dudley @ PF. Brezec really had not done much and seen a considerable dropoff from a few seasons ago. Basically Char is going smaller and you would think they may be play a bit faster pace. Raptors will be w/o Bosh , Bargnani and Ford it looks like on Monday. Which leaves Delfino , Calderon , Moon , Nesterovic , Kapono and Parker. With Dixon , Baston , Humphries , Graham and Martin . Now in the loss @ Wash the Raps got next to nothing from Ford and Bargnani.
Cats are searching for answers losing 5 straight including two tough losses in OT vs Wash and Boston. They have lost 8 of 10 in the series vs Toronto. You would expect a faster paced game.
The OVER 189 and due to value a play on Char +4 and / or ML. Just think how they struggled with Cle at home when Lebron was absent ....Bargnani played well that night ...
Atl @ Philly :
Sixers have won 8 of 10 in the series. Here are two teams you can't figure out. They are models for inconsistency despite being poor to begin with. Philly looked good for most of there past 5 games but they tend to play 1 good half and follow it with one awful half. A great team if leading at HALF to fade. On paper ATL is the better team but there PG issues keep them medicore at best.
I would have suspected more of a PK line so I would prefer ATL +3. Even though my 1st intinct was Philly wins this game. The total is spot on at 180 cause offense woes are obvious for both. ATL has played 6 straight unders and they have only cracked 180 once(181). This game looks to be played in the 80's...
Portland @ Memphis:
The Blazers have been terrible of late especially on the offensive side of the ball. However this game smells of OVERREACTION. The Grizz did smoke Minny who was short a few bodies off a tough home loss to SA. Remember when they were outscored by a TON in the 4th quarter. Portland looked terrible yesterday but did beat Memphis earlier in Portland. I would have expected more like -6 here...while the pace should be fast wouldnt take an over @ 204 when they continue to score about 85 points. Now being terrible on the road is one thing to consider as Dallas was one of there first ATS covers that were NOT a SU win.
Dallas @ Chicago :
With the struggles they are facing it is hard to back Dallas at this point. On the other hand can we be happy with CHI after consecutive wins?? Type of game it may be better to watch a Half before getting involved. The total seems low to me but has moved lower. I would have expected this game to be around 190 . The games in Chicagotend to be around 190 pts so no value either way but a higher total 194 ish would have put me on the UNDER...
Miami @ Utah :
Miami has stunk in most of there recnt games especially the past two. However they do own 7 straight wins against UTAH. The two times that Miami caught big numbers they covered this season. However Utah has laid some beatdowns in Utah and Miami is coming off a game in Denver. The Heat havent scored much on the road and they need to play in the low 90's to keep it a game. The problem with Utah is they have scored a ton at home and there ercnt games have played OVER despite few times where they allowed even 95 points.....
Orl @ GSW :
One of the game sthat a situational / professional bettor loves to see. Two hot teams squaring off but the Magic ending a 5 game Western swing coming off tough games in Pho and LAL. Orl is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when most teams fail to be able to cover an entire trip .
GS is simply playing excellent balland to me is the hottest team in the NBA. Couped with the situational aspect youhave to like the home squad. I would guess professional bettors jumped on GSW -1 and pushed it to -3.....
The total seems high so would lean UNDER....
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Jusr horrible effort , gameplan and coaching by everyone associated with Miami Ohio except there defense. Bewteen the vanilla play calling and lack of touch by the QB the offense sputtered in th 1st H. Mix in shitty kicking from the FG who decided the gam by missing an easy straight ahead mid 30's FG down 14-3. Then why go for an onside down 21-10 with 9 minutes left when you just had consecutive drives where you moved the ball quickly...stupid play but worse execution.....probably should have played BC and that inflated number. Like everyone you just expect VaTech to win here but how on a neutral field does this game see anything other VT -1.5 ???At least I didnt play the hokies....
Watching the beginning of the RU/Ville game I continually asked myself where was this RU offense coming from? Teel can play the QB position fairly well but all season long its been either his bad thumb causing inconsistencies Or his talented WR's dropping easy catches. Early on the RU offense looked like a well oiled machine. I felt they were playing over there head. However I was asking myself what I did I miss when capping this game?? Once it got 21-3 there was obvious concern that was somewhat mentally downplayed by the fact that I knew WVU jumped out to a big lead and the Cards were able to come back. Helping matters was that was @ WVU and this was home. So once 21-3 came I was basically waiting for that 1 play or drive that iced the game whether it be on offense or defense. It never came. If your watching that game you had to feel pretty good about Lville winning it after the Cards scored right before half. It did a number of things for the Ville. It instilled some confidence , some life in the fans that were left , it cast some doubt in the RU defense and it showed how quick the Louisville O could change the game if the defense could slow RU. I felt all along that while the Cards defense had not played fgood all season the past month it had shown great improvement and the 2nd H it showed. Once the held RU to a FG when they were inside the 5 yd line it became a question of could Ville sustain momentum. Could they score and cut it to 7? Well they did rather easily and quickly. Then they got another stop and could they do it again. The momentum just built and really if you sit back and think about it was the exact same thing that happened in last years meeting. It was like the UNIVERSE evening out....so tough PUSH hopefully for the RU backers and a nice win that should have been easier by Ville....So while it looked very lucky for Ville backers I would simply ask what made you BET RU in the 1st place ?? What advantage did they have ?
More NCAAF :
11AM start : MAC Championship CMU vs Miami Ohio:
Miami Ohio +3.5
After looking at these teams I have decided one thing . While CMU is extremely talented on OFFENSE it's overalll team effort is very average. There defense is poor and they are prone to penalties. Miami has played very sound defense and we know defense wins championships.
What I find concerning is that while Miami lost last week it had 5 FG's including 3 that were kicked inside the 5 yard line. They also won the time of possession and held Ohio to 200 yards of total offense!! Where CMU lost the TOP , had more turnovers , more penalties and yet had a 2-1 yardage advantage. Look at CMU lately. They got smoked @ Clemson , beat a 3rd string Frosh QB by 9 @ Kent State , edged WMU by 3 , lost at home to EMU by 3 and won @ Akron by 3 .
To me the best thing CMU did all year was win convincingly @ Ball State. However they were really under the radar due to shabby play and were catching 12 that day cause Ball State had been on somewhat of a roll and CMU had lost to North Dakota State at home. However Miami Ohio also won @ Ball State in the opener 14-13 catching only 4 points....
So basically what I am getting at is minus the Akron game the Miami Ohio Offense has been able to move the ball. I believe Brandon Murphy played last week and got 4 carries which would be a huge lift if he is available. CMU pulled two wins out of its ass on the road @ WMU and @ Akron. They just dont impress me as a TEAM and there schedule hasnt done much for me either......plus they fact they coasted the past two weeks doesnt help either IMO.....
C-USA :
Despite believing that UCF is the much better team I think 7.5 is to many here. Tulsa run defense isnt that bad its there pass defense thats horrendous. Which means you need more from Israel then previously IMO. No doubt Smith will get his but Israel will have to play well and for me he is to inconsistent. So small lean to Tulsa covering the 7.5 with senior Paul Smith at the gun. Really the Houston win was so impressive where as UCF was beating up bottom dwellers . Naturally there defense vs Rice and Army is alarming ....which means Over 74 looks low....42-38 Final?
Army vs Navy:
Army is not a very good team. However Navy's defense especially its pass defense is poor. I did notice that carson Williams played well vs a similiar bad Tulsa defense and even versus another bad pass defense in CMU. Navy is 0-5 ATS laying 7 or more and there wins have been by 11 3 times and twelve once. so they havent won a game allseason by two TDs. While Army played a very tough schedule littered with solid defenses. BC , GT , Wake from the ACC and even RU and AF sport above average power conference defenses IMO. So if you believe Army will score then take the points...navy should get there 38-42 which tells you why the total is 65 cause they expect Army to score at least 24....thinking about taking the points in the rivalry game cause Army should be able to score and Navy hasnt stopped anyone.....Also Army did a sound job vs the triple option last year and they prepare for it and are feeling confident they have a legit shot in this game if the defense performs like it did last season vs Navy and the offense builds off the Tulsa performance......plus anytime a team has 3 straight wins that 4th year the senior class always wants that one real bad....
GL
More NCAAF :
11AM start : MAC Championship CMU vs Miami Ohio:
Miami Ohio +3.5
After looking at these teams I have decided one thing . While CMU is extremely talented on OFFENSE it's overalll team effort is very average. There defense is poor and they are prone to penalties. Miami has played very sound defense and we know defense wins championships.
What I find concerning is that while Miami lost last week it had 5 FG's including 3 that were kicked inside the 5 yard line. They also won the time of possession and held Ohio to 200 yards of total offense!! Where CMU lost the TOP , had more turnovers , more penalties and yet had a 2-1 yardage advantage. Look at CMU lately. They got smoked @ Clemson , beat a 3rd string Frosh QB by 9 @ Kent State , edged WMU by 3 , lost at home to EMU by 3 and won @ Akron by 3 .
To me the best thing CMU did all year was win convincingly @ Ball State. However they were really under the radar due to shabby play and were catching 12 that day cause Ball State had been on somewhat of a roll and CMU had lost to North Dakota State at home. However Miami Ohio also won @ Ball State in the opener 14-13 catching only 4 points....
So basically what I am getting at is minus the Akron game the Miami Ohio Offense has been able to move the ball. I believe Brandon Murphy played last week and got 4 carries which would be a huge lift if he is available. CMU pulled two wins out of its ass on the road @ WMU and @ Akron. They just dont impress me as a TEAM and there schedule hasnt done much for me either......plus they fact they coasted the past two weeks doesnt help either IMO.....
C-USA :
Despite believing that UCF is the much better team I think 7.5 is to many here. Tulsa run defense isnt that bad its there pass defense thats horrendous. Which means you need more from Israel then previously IMO. No doubt Smith will get his but Israel will have to play well and for me he is to inconsistent. So small lean to Tulsa covering the 7.5 with senior Paul Smith at the gun. Really the Houston win was so impressive where as UCF was beating up bottom dwellers . Naturally there defense vs Rice and Army is alarming ....which means Over 74 looks low....42-38 Final?
Army vs Navy:
Army is not a very good team. However Navy's defense especially its pass defense is poor. I did notice that carson Williams played well vs a similiar bad Tulsa defense and even versus another bad pass defense in CMU. Navy is 0-5 ATS laying 7 or more and there wins have been by 11 3 times and twelve once. so they havent won a game allseason by two TDs. While Army played a very tough schedule littered with solid defenses. BC , GT , Wake from the ACC and even RU and AF sport above average power conference defenses IMO. So if you believe Army will score then take the points...navy should get there 38-42 which tells you why the total is 65 cause they expect Army to score at least 24....thinking about taking the points in the rivalry game cause Army should be able to score and Navy hasnt stopped anyone.....Also Army did a sound job vs the triple option last year and they prepare for it and are feeling confident they have a legit shot in this game if the defense performs like it did last season vs Navy and the offense builds off the Tulsa performance......plus anytime a team has 3 straight wins that 4th year the senior class always wants that one real bad....
GL
Thursday, November 29, 2007
NBA Thoughts :
Two quick comments. First is message boards seen rampant with comments about fading the public , line movement , reverse line movement , etc. When looking at lines two things should be considered before all else. First is the line proper ? Bad lines always lose . You need to then ask yorself if you feel a line is off why is it adjusted ? Whether it be higher or lower. Perfect example is last night with Cle @ Det. If you are a situational capper you should have been HUGE on the Pistons last evening. First the Cavs were in an awful spot. Playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT. The OT game was a huge matchup facing the Celtics but they had played earlier close games vs Tor on Sat and @ indy on Sunday. So combine tough games with travel , B2b off OTand youhave a very limited BENCH!!! Devin Brown , Ira Newble and damon Jones is basically all Then factor you have DET getting healthy with two days rests off ahome loss. Plus possible some payback in mind after Det was ousted by CLE in the playoffs. Everything was against CLE. You think they opened the game -9.5 for a reason? I sure did . Clearly LeBron has carried Cle of late and there are just some spots when its to muck to ask from a player especially when DET plays tough defense. As high as theline seemed we did de see -6 throughout the playoffs so I knew why the line was asjusted. Then bet accordingly. The other part is there is just to much emphasis on fading line moves and the betting public w/o capping the game. You want to be contrarian thats fine but pick your spots every game doesnt have some sort of mystery to it. I am guility at times as well of this but traps are caused by situations and misunderstanding of teams and lines not so much a design by the oddsmakers even though there job is to trap bettors into betting bad lines.
Also when teams are COLD dont lay heavy chalk with them cause funks last several games. Right now we have DAL , LAL , Den off the top of my head as teams who lay heavy lumber but are playing poorly. Right now GSW is on fire and after winning vs PHO in the WORST SPOT I made a mistake of jumping the gun and fading them in Sac. when truth be told chances are the HOU game was the situational tougher one. The Rockets have won 3 games now in somewhat impressive fashion which makes them look like they are getting hot. GSW played on the EAST , came home beat PHO , now traveled to Sac and won with a game vs Hou here .
Very tough to fade GSW right now but that is a possibility here cause Hoiuston could be in the midst of what GSW was a week ago.....Same with Bos actually. They are slumping abit where as NYK has put together two solid games now. Why run and lay -13 ??
be back later......BOL
Two quick comments. First is message boards seen rampant with comments about fading the public , line movement , reverse line movement , etc. When looking at lines two things should be considered before all else. First is the line proper ? Bad lines always lose . You need to then ask yorself if you feel a line is off why is it adjusted ? Whether it be higher or lower. Perfect example is last night with Cle @ Det. If you are a situational capper you should have been HUGE on the Pistons last evening. First the Cavs were in an awful spot. Playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT. The OT game was a huge matchup facing the Celtics but they had played earlier close games vs Tor on Sat and @ indy on Sunday. So combine tough games with travel , B2b off OTand youhave a very limited BENCH!!! Devin Brown , Ira Newble and damon Jones is basically all Then factor you have DET getting healthy with two days rests off ahome loss. Plus possible some payback in mind after Det was ousted by CLE in the playoffs. Everything was against CLE. You think they opened the game -9.5 for a reason? I sure did . Clearly LeBron has carried Cle of late and there are just some spots when its to muck to ask from a player especially when DET plays tough defense. As high as theline seemed we did de see -6 throughout the playoffs so I knew why the line was asjusted. Then bet accordingly. The other part is there is just to much emphasis on fading line moves and the betting public w/o capping the game. You want to be contrarian thats fine but pick your spots every game doesnt have some sort of mystery to it. I am guility at times as well of this but traps are caused by situations and misunderstanding of teams and lines not so much a design by the oddsmakers even though there job is to trap bettors into betting bad lines.
Also when teams are COLD dont lay heavy chalk with them cause funks last several games. Right now we have DAL , LAL , Den off the top of my head as teams who lay heavy lumber but are playing poorly. Right now GSW is on fire and after winning vs PHO in the WORST SPOT I made a mistake of jumping the gun and fading them in Sac. when truth be told chances are the HOU game was the situational tougher one. The Rockets have won 3 games now in somewhat impressive fashion which makes them look like they are getting hot. GSW played on the EAST , came home beat PHO , now traveled to Sac and won with a game vs Hou here .
Very tough to fade GSW right now but that is a possibility here cause Hoiuston could be in the midst of what GSW was a week ago.....Same with Bos actually. They are slumping abit where as NYK has put together two solid games now. Why run and lay -13 ??
be back later......BOL
CFB:
RU @ Louisville
Crazy matchup IMO. First we have a HUGE REVENGE factor in this game. Some people will say this is an overused angle in capping. It is to a degree just cause one team beats another doesnt make the next meeting a so called revenge or payback situation. It's more about what made that game so emotional or along that degree of thinking that sets up a revenge spot IMO. Here we have the rematch of what was two undefeated teams who were battling for the Big East crown and possible BCS/ National Championship berth. With Louisville up big at half they fell to pieces and couldnt recapture the momentum. As Brohm put it a downward spiral they couldnt escape. I do not like Kragthorpe as a head coach as from what I have seen he has made many bad decisions and seems like a gambler. Back to the revenge aspect - If you dont believe me listen to Harry Douglas of Da Ville who is playing probably his last game. "I've definitely had this game circled all year," wide receiver Harry Douglas said. "That game broke my heart last year. It's probably the only thing that's ever broken my heart in my whole life. So I've been waiting for this one." Also OL Giacomini is from NJ and is putting huge emphasis on a good showing.
Some other factors are Louisville playing for Bowl eligibilty. They still will have an uphill battle to get a bowl but a impressive beating of RU should be helpful . Especially when you have a stud prospect in Brohm to use as a selling point. On the other hand RU appears headed to the INTERNATIONAL BOWL in Toronto. No , it has not been confirmed but appears very likely at the moment. You naturally have senior night , last home game and possibly last game for Brohm , and maybe some negative perception due to the USF beatdown. Plus the prospect of RU being flat if the players believe that win or lose its the INTERNATIONAL BOWL.
Looking at the entire season what has RU done to impress anyone?? Seriously please tell me. Factor in Teel's thumb injury which is supposedly getting better but also needs just one hit and its reaggravated( 3 big passes to Britt last week and nothing else). There best wins are Navy , Pitt and USF at home. All which could and maybe should have been losses. RU pulled out every trick in the book to beat USF at home which is two totally different teams Home and Away. Thank Navy for repeated turnovers near or in the end one and Pitt if the had any offense would have won. Still they had TD nullified at the end cause of offensive pass interference and then were picked off on the next play. They had a ton of drives starting in RU territory but often choose to just run the ball and settle for FGs. They even missed a short 31 FG . Now Pitt also played Lville well and could have tied it late. However I think they won @ Cincy and battled back to TIE WVU @ 31 in the closing minutes before Pat White made a play to end it. Where as Cincy probably undeservingly won @ RU and WVU smoked RU in the rain at home. Even look at the UConn game. Both traveled there and again Lville much better showing. They didnt put the Huskies away and lost where as RU was never really in the game. Louisville was down this year. The defense struggled vs Middle Ten and it carried over somewhat to Kentucy. Woodson made plays to defeat Lville in the 4th quarter. It was a coin flip game and how would RU fair @ Kentucky? I think knowing how bad Cuse was they came in flat after such a huge loss. They caught Utah when they were getting healthy and again what would RU do vs them?
See the RU offense has progressed with its passing game thanks to better WR's. Though they still suffer from drops. They did not replace Leonard and Clark @ FB and TE which hurts them in 3rd downs and red zone effeciency IMO. While the Cards have struggled to find a consistent running game and may use Powell more here in look to next year.
I understand Louisville defense is bad. I will point out that Slayton did not play well vs them and if Teel is less then 100% maybe they can contain Rice who seems to be to overly depended on to provide offense. Also I dont think RU defense is anywhere near as good as it looks statisically. Weak opponents do that. They played hardly any good offenses all season.
Remember that both started with high expectations leading to some huge numbers to cover.
At the end of the day I think this game has to much significance for Louisville bewteen stars playing there last home game and possible last game , bowl eligibilty and revenge. To boot they are the better TEAM IMO and Home with a line that you basically just need a win...the defense played fairly solid @ Cincy , @ UConn and vs Pitt. It struggled somewhat with WVU though 38 points isnt a bad showing @ WVU. It wasnt till USF where maybe they were caught in a fog did they look bad. They looked asleep allowing the opening kick which was fumbled for a TD. Maybe off a tough defeat and lookahead spot they werent properly focused and before they knew it they had a huge defecit to overcome.
Thinking about -140 but just may lay -2.5.....I think 60 points may be alot here cause RU will run alot rather then get in a shootout I believe...high end you might see 34-24 but thinking more like 31-20.....
Good Luck
RU @ Louisville
Crazy matchup IMO. First we have a HUGE REVENGE factor in this game. Some people will say this is an overused angle in capping. It is to a degree just cause one team beats another doesnt make the next meeting a so called revenge or payback situation. It's more about what made that game so emotional or along that degree of thinking that sets up a revenge spot IMO. Here we have the rematch of what was two undefeated teams who were battling for the Big East crown and possible BCS/ National Championship berth. With Louisville up big at half they fell to pieces and couldnt recapture the momentum. As Brohm put it a downward spiral they couldnt escape. I do not like Kragthorpe as a head coach as from what I have seen he has made many bad decisions and seems like a gambler. Back to the revenge aspect - If you dont believe me listen to Harry Douglas of Da Ville who is playing probably his last game. "I've definitely had this game circled all year," wide receiver Harry Douglas said. "That game broke my heart last year. It's probably the only thing that's ever broken my heart in my whole life. So I've been waiting for this one." Also OL Giacomini is from NJ and is putting huge emphasis on a good showing.
Some other factors are Louisville playing for Bowl eligibilty. They still will have an uphill battle to get a bowl but a impressive beating of RU should be helpful . Especially when you have a stud prospect in Brohm to use as a selling point. On the other hand RU appears headed to the INTERNATIONAL BOWL in Toronto. No , it has not been confirmed but appears very likely at the moment. You naturally have senior night , last home game and possibly last game for Brohm , and maybe some negative perception due to the USF beatdown. Plus the prospect of RU being flat if the players believe that win or lose its the INTERNATIONAL BOWL.
Looking at the entire season what has RU done to impress anyone?? Seriously please tell me. Factor in Teel's thumb injury which is supposedly getting better but also needs just one hit and its reaggravated( 3 big passes to Britt last week and nothing else). There best wins are Navy , Pitt and USF at home. All which could and maybe should have been losses. RU pulled out every trick in the book to beat USF at home which is two totally different teams Home and Away. Thank Navy for repeated turnovers near or in the end one and Pitt if the had any offense would have won. Still they had TD nullified at the end cause of offensive pass interference and then were picked off on the next play. They had a ton of drives starting in RU territory but often choose to just run the ball and settle for FGs. They even missed a short 31 FG . Now Pitt also played Lville well and could have tied it late. However I think they won @ Cincy and battled back to TIE WVU @ 31 in the closing minutes before Pat White made a play to end it. Where as Cincy probably undeservingly won @ RU and WVU smoked RU in the rain at home. Even look at the UConn game. Both traveled there and again Lville much better showing. They didnt put the Huskies away and lost where as RU was never really in the game. Louisville was down this year. The defense struggled vs Middle Ten and it carried over somewhat to Kentucy. Woodson made plays to defeat Lville in the 4th quarter. It was a coin flip game and how would RU fair @ Kentucky? I think knowing how bad Cuse was they came in flat after such a huge loss. They caught Utah when they were getting healthy and again what would RU do vs them?
See the RU offense has progressed with its passing game thanks to better WR's. Though they still suffer from drops. They did not replace Leonard and Clark @ FB and TE which hurts them in 3rd downs and red zone effeciency IMO. While the Cards have struggled to find a consistent running game and may use Powell more here in look to next year.
I understand Louisville defense is bad. I will point out that Slayton did not play well vs them and if Teel is less then 100% maybe they can contain Rice who seems to be to overly depended on to provide offense. Also I dont think RU defense is anywhere near as good as it looks statisically. Weak opponents do that. They played hardly any good offenses all season.
Remember that both started with high expectations leading to some huge numbers to cover.
At the end of the day I think this game has to much significance for Louisville bewteen stars playing there last home game and possible last game , bowl eligibilty and revenge. To boot they are the better TEAM IMO and Home with a line that you basically just need a win...the defense played fairly solid @ Cincy , @ UConn and vs Pitt. It struggled somewhat with WVU though 38 points isnt a bad showing @ WVU. It wasnt till USF where maybe they were caught in a fog did they look bad. They looked asleep allowing the opening kick which was fumbled for a TD. Maybe off a tough defeat and lookahead spot they werent properly focused and before they knew it they had a huge defecit to overcome.
Thinking about -140 but just may lay -2.5.....I think 60 points may be alot here cause RU will run alot rather then get in a shootout I believe...high end you might see 34-24 but thinking more like 31-20.....
Good Luck
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
You ever wonder what holds you back from going forward with one play(s) and pushes you onto another? In all seriousness anyone watching the downpour @ Heinz Field coupled with the knowledge of the new sod after the FRI & SAT games had to ask themselves how will anyone score ? In fact the game reminded me of one of Big Ben's first career starts in Miami during a storm where the Steelers won something like 13-3.
I thought you had to take Miami cause there probably wouldnt be 15 points scored in the game. You had to take the UNDER and the 1st Half UNDER. You could take every UNDER in each quarter. If you had FG PROP the approriate play was the UNDER in that. My book didnt have one cause they KNEW it was an easy under. That game should have been a CASH COW. You know what I took and maybe something I can use an excuse was having to be somewhere at 9 PM was an entire 1/2 unit on the 1st H under!! lets not forgot the team totals Under 12 Miami and Under 28 Pitt!!!! It really eats at me to no end.
Another subject is I have trouble making decisions. Part of the anxiety issue and possibly some ADD or other disorder. Though I havent had it confirmed yet. Anyway my point is I look at the game spend hours capping it and writing it up for nothing. I sad the KEY was the weather. Well not being in Pitt I needed to see some visual confimation of the field before making a decision. So again all that work done and the weather is so bad the ONLY way to play is it take the points +16 and the under...no capping required. So my point is I try to gather INFO to make the best decision possible before gametime. In my opinion there really are to many factors to bother worrying about early lines and the best line. You should cap a game to win/ lose by the closing line. Rarely does the difference in lines from OPEN to CLOSE make a difference on how your wager is graded.
Now due to limited time its impossible to write down my thoughts on the entire card and always seem to leave out some solid plays..Kings , Ov 1st H warriors , Over 1st H washington U .....Have ro do better to get my entire card out there cause it helps me cross the tee's and dot the i's....
And we move on.....
NBA:
Boston @ Cle :
Ray Allen is playing with a bum ankle and dont see 1 day off doing all that much to help it. Tony Allen looks doubtful for the bench but his role has been limited anyway. Cavs playing 3rd in 4 days and still pissed I didnt take them on Sunday cause I couldnt understand how they were +2?? No way Indy should have been favored...I cant see how Boston opened at -3 and went higher. I thought worst case we would see BOS -1.5. They havent played all that well on the road winning in OT @ Toronto , losing in Orl by 2 after a furious rally and barely defeating Charlotte at the buzzer. They whipped NJN w/o Carter and who didnt ? they beat up On Indy shortly after Diogu was lost and Daniels was OUT. depth is always an issue for Cle and with Hughes out of the lineup they tend to score more and allow more. Think Cavs ...
Memphis @ NJN :
The Nets look like a different team with the services of Vince and Nachbar playing like he did last year. Looking at the past few games and knowing MEMPHIS up-tempo style I would suggest an OVER here but remain cautious and want to see where this total ends up cause memphis is OFF a game where they exceeded 240..(a caution flag for me) What makes this a complicated game is NJN is playing its 1st game back after a West Coast Swing which ended pretty late on Sunday . So you wonder if they are flat here or if they have the legs to run with memphis. They have off till 12/1 after this and if they hadnt won 3 straight this would be an automatic fade. I did fade LAL on Sunday due to them returning from a west coast swing as well as the Struggling Hornets yesterday. I stayed off of GSW cause they were coming back from Philly playing a rested Suns team. That was a mistake clearly. The Grizzlies are NOT a good road team losing 5 straight and stand at 1-6 thanks to lowly Seattle which faded in the 4th quarter like they always do.
Charlotte @ Miami
Really dont have much of an opinion on this game. Thought the line would be -7 / -7.5 here since Wade has returned and he is worth 4 maybe 4.5 points in my estimation. Miami has NOT shown to play 4 quarters so laying points is a risky play IMO. Would prefer loking at the OVER 187. Basically the same total as when Wade missed the 1st meeting which finished 90-88(186 posted total). Heat offense looks better and they should get 95 or so points here but the question remains what does Charlotte score..think worst case 88-90...but that still leaves one short. I do think Miami will have REVENGE on there mind after the embarrassing game @ Charlotte when Riley called them out soon after.
Philly @ Milw
The question marks surround the availability of Mason and Mo Williams for Milw. The Sixers should have Korver back for action but a shooter being out so long would reasonable struggle for a game or two. You never know though. With te loss of your PG you would expect the offense to dropoff some. For the most part Philly has offensive issues and the Bucks have played some solid Defense at home to date. Like the Under 186.5 and may play the 1st H under 93 as well....Think this game doesnt get past 180....
As for a side its tough to pick with 2 starters possibly OUT for MILW. Philly has not been good on the road -7 was correct if they Bucks were at full strength. So with that I owuld have to pass. I do like the fact that MILW acknowledges this as a big game due to previous playing UP or DOWN to competition.
Atl @ Chi :
The Bulls return from a road trip and a loss on Sat and Sunday. I was pretty confident they would win on Sun but they played terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Not really sure what to make of either team at the moment but 181 seems real low...
Pacers @ Nuggets :
Denver is short big men and banged up with melo and AI supposedly needing some rest. I think you have to see DEN's play as subpar past 3 games and would have to fade them until they show improvement and get healthy. I cannot rely on past DEN beatings at home as an indication. Should be uptempo game. As much as thi sshould be a run N gun game w/o Kleiza and martin the Den offense isnt as highpowered. 218 is alot of points.....if the over is intrugiung probably prefer the 1st H over...
Seattle @ LAL :
While on the surface 1 looks alot of points remember that SEA has been blownout often on the road and couldnt cover 10 at home Vs SA.....You would think LAL looks to rebound after letting the SUNDAY game get away. Another thing to remember is that like PORT in previous years Sonics have shown to either lose ATS or win SU as a road dog. So if you dont think SEA wins here SU then it probably pays to pass on the points. Small lean on 1st H over cause there will be alot of shots taken here and LAL -11...However recently LAL has played low scoring 1st H and that is a concern so maybe the game over is better...
I thought you had to take Miami cause there probably wouldnt be 15 points scored in the game. You had to take the UNDER and the 1st Half UNDER. You could take every UNDER in each quarter. If you had FG PROP the approriate play was the UNDER in that. My book didnt have one cause they KNEW it was an easy under. That game should have been a CASH COW. You know what I took and maybe something I can use an excuse was having to be somewhere at 9 PM was an entire 1/2 unit on the 1st H under!! lets not forgot the team totals Under 12 Miami and Under 28 Pitt!!!! It really eats at me to no end.
Another subject is I have trouble making decisions. Part of the anxiety issue and possibly some ADD or other disorder. Though I havent had it confirmed yet. Anyway my point is I look at the game spend hours capping it and writing it up for nothing. I sad the KEY was the weather. Well not being in Pitt I needed to see some visual confimation of the field before making a decision. So again all that work done and the weather is so bad the ONLY way to play is it take the points +16 and the under...no capping required. So my point is I try to gather INFO to make the best decision possible before gametime. In my opinion there really are to many factors to bother worrying about early lines and the best line. You should cap a game to win/ lose by the closing line. Rarely does the difference in lines from OPEN to CLOSE make a difference on how your wager is graded.
Now due to limited time its impossible to write down my thoughts on the entire card and always seem to leave out some solid plays..Kings , Ov 1st H warriors , Over 1st H washington U .....Have ro do better to get my entire card out there cause it helps me cross the tee's and dot the i's....
And we move on.....
NBA:
Boston @ Cle :
Ray Allen is playing with a bum ankle and dont see 1 day off doing all that much to help it. Tony Allen looks doubtful for the bench but his role has been limited anyway. Cavs playing 3rd in 4 days and still pissed I didnt take them on Sunday cause I couldnt understand how they were +2?? No way Indy should have been favored...I cant see how Boston opened at -3 and went higher. I thought worst case we would see BOS -1.5. They havent played all that well on the road winning in OT @ Toronto , losing in Orl by 2 after a furious rally and barely defeating Charlotte at the buzzer. They whipped NJN w/o Carter and who didnt ? they beat up On Indy shortly after Diogu was lost and Daniels was OUT. depth is always an issue for Cle and with Hughes out of the lineup they tend to score more and allow more. Think Cavs ...
Memphis @ NJN :
The Nets look like a different team with the services of Vince and Nachbar playing like he did last year. Looking at the past few games and knowing MEMPHIS up-tempo style I would suggest an OVER here but remain cautious and want to see where this total ends up cause memphis is OFF a game where they exceeded 240..(a caution flag for me) What makes this a complicated game is NJN is playing its 1st game back after a West Coast Swing which ended pretty late on Sunday . So you wonder if they are flat here or if they have the legs to run with memphis. They have off till 12/1 after this and if they hadnt won 3 straight this would be an automatic fade. I did fade LAL on Sunday due to them returning from a west coast swing as well as the Struggling Hornets yesterday. I stayed off of GSW cause they were coming back from Philly playing a rested Suns team. That was a mistake clearly. The Grizzlies are NOT a good road team losing 5 straight and stand at 1-6 thanks to lowly Seattle which faded in the 4th quarter like they always do.
Charlotte @ Miami
Really dont have much of an opinion on this game. Thought the line would be -7 / -7.5 here since Wade has returned and he is worth 4 maybe 4.5 points in my estimation. Miami has NOT shown to play 4 quarters so laying points is a risky play IMO. Would prefer loking at the OVER 187. Basically the same total as when Wade missed the 1st meeting which finished 90-88(186 posted total). Heat offense looks better and they should get 95 or so points here but the question remains what does Charlotte score..think worst case 88-90...but that still leaves one short. I do think Miami will have REVENGE on there mind after the embarrassing game @ Charlotte when Riley called them out soon after.
Philly @ Milw
The question marks surround the availability of Mason and Mo Williams for Milw. The Sixers should have Korver back for action but a shooter being out so long would reasonable struggle for a game or two. You never know though. With te loss of your PG you would expect the offense to dropoff some. For the most part Philly has offensive issues and the Bucks have played some solid Defense at home to date. Like the Under 186.5 and may play the 1st H under 93 as well....Think this game doesnt get past 180....
As for a side its tough to pick with 2 starters possibly OUT for MILW. Philly has not been good on the road -7 was correct if they Bucks were at full strength. So with that I owuld have to pass. I do like the fact that MILW acknowledges this as a big game due to previous playing UP or DOWN to competition.
Atl @ Chi :
The Bulls return from a road trip and a loss on Sat and Sunday. I was pretty confident they would win on Sun but they played terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Not really sure what to make of either team at the moment but 181 seems real low...
Pacers @ Nuggets :
Denver is short big men and banged up with melo and AI supposedly needing some rest. I think you have to see DEN's play as subpar past 3 games and would have to fade them until they show improvement and get healthy. I cannot rely on past DEN beatings at home as an indication. Should be uptempo game. As much as thi sshould be a run N gun game w/o Kleiza and martin the Den offense isnt as highpowered. 218 is alot of points.....if the over is intrugiung probably prefer the 1st H over...
Seattle @ LAL :
While on the surface 1 looks alot of points remember that SEA has been blownout often on the road and couldnt cover 10 at home Vs SA.....You would think LAL looks to rebound after letting the SUNDAY game get away. Another thing to remember is that like PORT in previous years Sonics have shown to either lose ATS or win SU as a road dog. So if you dont think SEA wins here SU then it probably pays to pass on the points. Small lean on 1st H over cause there will be alot of shots taken here and LAL -11...However recently LAL has played low scoring 1st H and that is a concern so maybe the game over is better...
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