Since I feel like I have researched this game to no end my conclusions stay the same. The Falcons can WIN this game if they simply do not self destruct like they did vs Carolina , TB , and even the Colts and Giants to some degree. The problem is that ATL has made this a trait of there team and how do you break it in week 14 ?? Possibly through better QB play which could increase overall team confidence( this is my guess at how they will). No one believes Insurance Salesman Chris Redman is a savior but who was Luke McCown before last week when he traveled to face the Saints?? I know he was a guy who basically had last played in a few games in 2004 for Cleveland !!! That 109 passer rating wasnt to shabby! Back to those COSTLY penalties that keep drives alive the Hall taunting on Steve Smith , the Giant game had more then a few , the roughing the punter vs Indy , the shoddy play vs TB that lead to points for TB , etc. You have to have discipline and focus to keep that from occuring. Again something tough to resolve in week 14 but through better QB play the team in general has less plays to make and less time to foul up.

The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.


So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.

Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!

What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....


At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....

Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.

Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50

Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL