You ever wonder what holds you back from going forward with one play(s) and pushes you onto another? In all seriousness anyone watching the downpour @ Heinz Field coupled with the knowledge of the new sod after the FRI & SAT games had to ask themselves how will anyone score ? In fact the game reminded me of one of Big Ben's first career starts in Miami during a storm where the Steelers won something like 13-3.

I thought you had to take Miami cause there probably wouldnt be 15 points scored in the game. You had to take the UNDER and the 1st Half UNDER. You could take every UNDER in each quarter. If you had FG PROP the approriate play was the UNDER in that. My book didnt have one cause they KNEW it was an easy under. That game should have been a CASH COW. You know what I took and maybe something I can use an excuse was having to be somewhere at 9 PM was an entire 1/2 unit on the 1st H under!! lets not forgot the team totals Under 12 Miami and Under 28 Pitt!!!! It really eats at me to no end.

Another subject is I have trouble making decisions. Part of the anxiety issue and possibly some ADD or other disorder. Though I havent had it confirmed yet. Anyway my point is I look at the game spend hours capping it and writing it up for nothing. I sad the KEY was the weather. Well not being in Pitt I needed to see some visual confimation of the field before making a decision. So again all that work done and the weather is so bad the ONLY way to play is it take the points +16 and the under...no capping required. So my point is I try to gather INFO to make the best decision possible before gametime. In my opinion there really are to many factors to bother worrying about early lines and the best line. You should cap a game to win/ lose by the closing line. Rarely does the difference in lines from OPEN to CLOSE make a difference on how your wager is graded.

Now due to limited time its impossible to write down my thoughts on the entire card and always seem to leave out some solid plays..Kings , Ov 1st H warriors , Over 1st H washington U .....Have ro do better to get my entire card out there cause it helps me cross the tee's and dot the i's....


And we move on.....

NBA:
Boston @ Cle :
Ray Allen is playing with a bum ankle and dont see 1 day off doing all that much to help it. Tony Allen looks doubtful for the bench but his role has been limited anyway. Cavs playing 3rd in 4 days and still pissed I didnt take them on Sunday cause I couldnt understand how they were +2?? No way Indy should have been favored...I cant see how Boston opened at -3 and went higher. I thought worst case we would see BOS -1.5. They havent played all that well on the road winning in OT @ Toronto , losing in Orl by 2 after a furious rally and barely defeating Charlotte at the buzzer. They whipped NJN w/o Carter and who didnt ? they beat up On Indy shortly after Diogu was lost and Daniels was OUT. depth is always an issue for Cle and with Hughes out of the lineup they tend to score more and allow more. Think Cavs ...

Memphis @ NJN :
The Nets look like a different team with the services of Vince and Nachbar playing like he did last year. Looking at the past few games and knowing MEMPHIS up-tempo style I would suggest an OVER here but remain cautious and want to see where this total ends up cause memphis is OFF a game where they exceeded 240..(a caution flag for me) What makes this a complicated game is NJN is playing its 1st game back after a West Coast Swing which ended pretty late on Sunday . So you wonder if they are flat here or if they have the legs to run with memphis. They have off till 12/1 after this and if they hadnt won 3 straight this would be an automatic fade. I did fade LAL on Sunday due to them returning from a west coast swing as well as the Struggling Hornets yesterday. I stayed off of GSW cause they were coming back from Philly playing a rested Suns team. That was a mistake clearly. The Grizzlies are NOT a good road team losing 5 straight and stand at 1-6 thanks to lowly Seattle which faded in the 4th quarter like they always do.


Charlotte @ Miami

Really dont have much of an opinion on this game. Thought the line would be -7 / -7.5 here since Wade has returned and he is worth 4 maybe 4.5 points in my estimation. Miami has NOT shown to play 4 quarters so laying points is a risky play IMO. Would prefer loking at the OVER 187. Basically the same total as when Wade missed the 1st meeting which finished 90-88(186 posted total). Heat offense looks better and they should get 95 or so points here but the question remains what does Charlotte score..think worst case 88-90...but that still leaves one short. I do think Miami will have REVENGE on there mind after the embarrassing game @ Charlotte when Riley called them out soon after.

Philly @ Milw

The question marks surround the availability of Mason and Mo Williams for Milw. The Sixers should have Korver back for action but a shooter being out so long would reasonable struggle for a game or two. You never know though. With te loss of your PG you would expect the offense to dropoff some. For the most part Philly has offensive issues and the Bucks have played some solid Defense at home to date. Like the Under 186.5 and may play the 1st H under 93 as well....Think this game doesnt get past 180....
As for a side its tough to pick with 2 starters possibly OUT for MILW. Philly has not been good on the road -7 was correct if they Bucks were at full strength. So with that I owuld have to pass. I do like the fact that MILW acknowledges this as a big game due to previous playing UP or DOWN to competition.

Atl @ Chi :

The Bulls return from a road trip and a loss on Sat and Sunday. I was pretty confident they would win on Sun but they played terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Not really sure what to make of either team at the moment but 181 seems real low...

Pacers @ Nuggets :

Denver is short big men and banged up with melo and AI supposedly needing some rest. I think you have to see DEN's play as subpar past 3 games and would have to fade them until they show improvement and get healthy. I cannot rely on past DEN beatings at home as an indication. Should be uptempo game. As much as thi sshould be a run N gun game w/o Kleiza and martin the Den offense isnt as highpowered. 218 is alot of points.....if the over is intrugiung probably prefer the 1st H over...


Seattle @ LAL :
While on the surface 1 looks alot of points remember that SEA has been blownout often on the road and couldnt cover 10 at home Vs SA.....You would think LAL looks to rebound after letting the SUNDAY game get away. Another thing to remember is that like PORT in previous years Sonics have shown to either lose ATS or win SU as a road dog. So if you dont think SEA wins here SU then it probably pays to pass on the points. Small lean on 1st H over cause there will be alot of shots taken here and LAL -11...However recently LAL has played low scoring 1st H and that is a concern so maybe the game over is better...