NCAAB Thoughts :

7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :

Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!

So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.

Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.

Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.

Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...

Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??

ULL @ UCF :

Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....


Evansville @ Valpo :

Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!

The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)

In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.

Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...

Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.

While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...

Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!

Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...


StMarys @ So ILL :

I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.

So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.

They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!

Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....

Sac St @ Oregon :

Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....


Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...

GL