NBA Thoughts :

Two quick comments. First is message boards seen rampant with comments about fading the public , line movement , reverse line movement , etc. When looking at lines two things should be considered before all else. First is the line proper ? Bad lines always lose . You need to then ask yorself if you feel a line is off why is it adjusted ? Whether it be higher or lower. Perfect example is last night with Cle @ Det. If you are a situational capper you should have been HUGE on the Pistons last evening. First the Cavs were in an awful spot. Playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT. The OT game was a huge matchup facing the Celtics but they had played earlier close games vs Tor on Sat and @ indy on Sunday. So combine tough games with travel , B2b off OTand youhave a very limited BENCH!!! Devin Brown , Ira Newble and damon Jones is basically all Then factor you have DET getting healthy with two days rests off ahome loss. Plus possible some payback in mind after Det was ousted by CLE in the playoffs. Everything was against CLE. You think they opened the game -9.5 for a reason? I sure did . Clearly LeBron has carried Cle of late and there are just some spots when its to muck to ask from a player especially when DET plays tough defense. As high as theline seemed we did de see -6 throughout the playoffs so I knew why the line was asjusted. Then bet accordingly. The other part is there is just to much emphasis on fading line moves and the betting public w/o capping the game. You want to be contrarian thats fine but pick your spots every game doesnt have some sort of mystery to it. I am guility at times as well of this but traps are caused by situations and misunderstanding of teams and lines not so much a design by the oddsmakers even though there job is to trap bettors into betting bad lines.

Also when teams are COLD dont lay heavy chalk with them cause funks last several games. Right now we have DAL , LAL , Den off the top of my head as teams who lay heavy lumber but are playing poorly. Right now GSW is on fire and after winning vs PHO in the WORST SPOT I made a mistake of jumping the gun and fading them in Sac. when truth be told chances are the HOU game was the situational tougher one. The Rockets have won 3 games now in somewhat impressive fashion which makes them look like they are getting hot. GSW played on the EAST , came home beat PHO , now traveled to Sac and won with a game vs Hou here .

Very tough to fade GSW right now but that is a possibility here cause Hoiuston could be in the midst of what GSW was a week ago.....Same with Bos actually. They are slumping abit where as NYK has put together two solid games now. Why run and lay -13 ??

be back later......BOL