College Football

Tonite :
Rutgers ML
Under 8.5 Cleveland
{parlay them with the Under @ UConn tmrw)

For leans prefer Cleveland +110. TCU and the UNDER but strange move makes me feel like I am missing something. The RU total is a mystery. Its fairly high considering previous total sets for these two. I had said I see 51 pts worst case but what I dont like is this total is higher then last weeks game vs UCF. So with that I believe we dont see more then 52 points. I think 28-24 is wosre case for this game I dont see it being higher. I will say RU wins 23-20...Nice to see some downward movement on the totals....






Rutgers ML or buy it to +3 from +2

I look at this game and I see a RU team no one truly knows what to make of. We saw them beat a bunch of cupcakes and implode vs Cincy and Maryland. Part of the problem is there defense has been very average in those games . With USF I dont see a team whose marquee wins shine as much as they should. Sorry , you can talk about winning @ Auburn but if we remember correctly it was when the Tigers were struggling mightily. So bad they were 17 pt dogs at Fla soon there after. So nice job by USF to win in OT but I wouldnt say USF beat Auburn. I think Auburn beat Auburn. To me there is a difference. Especially when your installing that team as a road favorite. Also I see a much stronger team at home so looking at the WVU game is probably not a good indicator. Again WVU didnt exactly get smoked but they lost. The key to the game was Grothe's scramble where he connected for a 55yd TD to a wide open WR. Also not lost is Pat White being hobbled and playing just the 1st Half(Slayton just 13 carries). USF didnt even manage 300 yards of offense and was 7 point dogs.

Ray Rice has two huge games vs USF 158 and 202. Naturally we know RU has a nice home field edge though it certainly doesnt guarnatee victory. I dont see how RU could be small favs last year and win but now be small dogs at home. Thats a pretty bug role change. Then as I said look at the fact USF was 7 pt dogs to a down Auburn team and at home vs WVU. They were undervalued vs WVU , then promptly overvalued @ FAU where they barely won. Now they go home and everyone is like UCF a team that was 17 pt home dogs to Texas and some sort of instate rival was gonna give USF a game. Only -10 at home to UCF a team with a historically BAD defense. I am not usre USF is any better then Cincy and I am not sure this game should be anything other then say RU -2.5....

Play: RUTGERS

I dont have a feel for the total but if I had to guess I would say OVER 52. The Scarlet Knight defense has been so-so and I would expect 24 points from USF . Expecting RU to win SU means I basically envision a worst case scenario of 27-24..


MLB Playoffs :

Under 8.5 -120 or 8 @ + money

In Game 1 I thought we saw an overadjustment with the total opening at 8.5 down to 8 at Fenway Park. Fenway as we all know is a notorious hitters park. Here at the Jake I can understand an 8.5 total and even the move down to 8 runs. Both guys started an pitched 1-0 games at the Jake this year vs there opponents. Beckett has been outstanding in 3 starts vs Cle this year and CC had been good in his past two but struggled mightily at Fenway last week. Naturally a concern . The Yankee lineup is tougher and CC battled through 5 innings. At home his ERA is only 3.21 and he allowed 3.70 runs per start in 2007. Whats huge is Beckett allowing 1.92 with a 2.08 ERA. Both pens are rested again.

The past two and a half games have seen Bostons lineup sluggish. They didnt score after teh 6-6 tie in the 5th. Then they waited for a 2 run HR by Varitek in the 7th and three consecutive solo shots the next nite. Now they did CC hit well in Game 1 BUT he did allow just 9 hrs in 19 starts. Take out the long ball and Boston hasnt been able to produce runs. Beckett has been great and we all hope his mystery injury is nothing significant.

Tonite we see the pitching duel expected in Game 1 ....Personally I like Cle dont see how this game isnt a PKem at Bos -120 the value lies in Cle......Also both SP hold runners well and I think that with limited baserunners(both SP have OBP allowed below 300) you have to play small ball..

Rest of the card:

Utah @ TCU : It seem sthe TCU offense is improving and the defense isnt exactly what we expected. However how heavily can we weigh two road games. To me thisgame screams UNDER yet the total keeps creeping up? I would have expected an OVERWHELMING amount of UNDER backers here....For a side while Utah has played well of late and amassed 500 yards of offense last week I think playing in 85 degree weather could be a challenge. I think TCU looking at the imroving offense and how awesoem the DEF was at home is the play.....GL