Made some minor mistakes yesterday. First playing the 1st Half Under instead of Under 44. The second was not focusing on the fact that ATL did not know how to win football games . If you watched in every facet of the game they continually made plays and decisions to lose it. Monday Nite for awhile is simple picking the winner and that should be remembered. There is so many things I question from a coaching standpoint about ATL but so many chances pissed away by drops by ATL players.

The ALCS:

Last night was alot of what I expected. You had pitchers battling all night and getting out of jams. Only a 4-2 game but a couple of key hits could have put alot more runs on the board.

So what do I see tonite. First lets look at Wakefield. How does anyone gauge what to expect?? The guy was excellent until he got hurt & since then he has been fairly poor. Now he hasn't pitched in weeks(9/29) and received a cortisone shot for his back/shoulder. Since the end of the season he has thrown on the side obviously and a simulated game which lasted 5 innings and 77 pitches. Now off the top of my head I would wonder how deep he can go into a game and how many pitches he can throw?? My guess 6 innings and / or 90 pitches. His 1st two starts after injury were awful and then the next 3 were what I would categorize as average or fair. In the past mostly against my Yankees he was excellent in the postseason. He didn't face Cle in 2007 and only once in 2006. On the road this year even with a few shit starts in SEPT he was pretty good but battled poor run support. His 7-8 4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP lead to a 12-4 UNDER record with 4.38 runs support and 3.44 allowed. Mirabelli will catch and you can run on them 27 for 33. Last year Wake struggled on the road I think the difference this year was how unbelievable well he picthed in domes ( spec Tor and TB). Look at his grass numbers 5.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

For Byrd I am wondering if his two year struggle at the Jake is related to it being a QuesTec Stadium. This year at Home 95 Inn 132 Hits 63run 60 earned 15hr 17 bb 45 Ks 5.68 ERA 1.57 WHIP .328BAA and .322LHBAA. His numbers in night starts were almost as poor : 4.88 ERA 1.42 WHIP .304 BAA . Last season he was 81.1 INN 101 H 58 runs 49 earned 7hrs 20 bb 42 K 5.42 ERA 1.51 WHIP .303 BAA .369 LHBAA. Again his night stats are poor 117.2 Inn 170 H 94 runs 74 earned 5.66 ERA 1.69 WHIP .333BAA.

Bottom line is Byrd should get hit the amount of runs scored against him lies in how Boston does with RISP. Plain and simple.


My feeling is Boston ties the series tonite but to do so I think they most outscore Cle which means RUNS based on the SP. Also if you get only 5 innings of the SP we know the backend relievers are good but the middle relievers can be shaky on both sides. As I mentioned yesterday the O/U numbers for this situation point to under and the teams dont hit RHP that well in the situation either.

Play the Over 10 -115

Like it however you can slice it 1stt 5 Innings over and R,H,E over 30 as well.....BOL

******Now I see Garko is out of the lineup for Shoppach and I am rethinking my play. Hate that all that work and odd changes surface..After some thought I will stick with the OVER 10 runs. Wake is a question mark who holds a 5.73 ERA in his grass starts and before this year had struggled on the road. Big reason he didnt this year was 7 or 8 starts coming indoors of 16....


Some interesting stats: Taken from YahooSports via Insiders EDGE. This is not my work a simple cut and paste.

HITTERS

• Boston will start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in Game 4. While the knuckleball is in a class by itself, the Indians did rank third in the major leagues with a .272 well-hit average against pitches slower than 77 mph. Franklin Gutierrez was excellent against soft off-speed pitches this year. The young outfielder batted .330 (35-for-106) against pitches slower than 77 mph.

• The man the Indians want at the plate with runners in scoring position and two outs is Kenny Lofton. The 40-year-old outfielder is hitting .750 (6-for-8) with a homerun in this situation. All six of his hits have come off of fastballs.

• Sixty percent of Paul Byrd's fastballs that have been put in play have been hit in the air. That should be good news for David Ortiz, who batted .519 when he was able to get right-handed fastballs airborne this season.

• One massive bat in the Red Sox lineup would prefer the heat to be turned up on Byrd's 85 mph fastball. Manny Ramirez batted .214 (12-for-56) against right-handed fastballs between 82 and 88 mph this season.

• If Byrd is able to keep his off-speed pitches down in the strike zone expect the Sox hitters to struggle. They ranked dead last in the majors with a .159 batting average against low, non-fastballs from righties. No one has struggled more than Coco Crisp, who was 6-for-60 with 25 strikeouts against these pitches.

PITCHERS

• Byrd threw his fastball 1786 times this season and a whopping 73 percent of them were strikes. That was the second-highest fastball strike percentage among AL starting pitchers.

• Which AL starting pitcher threw his fastball for a strike more often than Byrd? Boston's Game 4 starter, Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer only used his fastball 366 times, but 279 were strikes, or 76 percent.

• Being around the zone is a good thing, but Byrd will be particularly successful if he can hit his spot down and away from right-handed batters:

Right-handed batters vs. Byrd's fastball in the strike zone (from pitcher's viewpoint)

Fastball Location Away Middle In
Up .313 .320 .333
Middle .302 .250 .455
Down .120 .563 .200


• Indians relievers have delivered some nasty breaking balls this postseason. Opponents are hitting only .115 (3-for-26) against their curves and sliders. Ironically, all three hits were home runs.

• Wakefield has dominated the first three hitters in opposing lineups, but has struggled against the bottom of the order:

Wakefield vs. lineup spot in 2007

Hitters 1-3 in lineup Hitters 7-9 in lineup
Batting Avg. .223 (58-for-260) .318 (71-for-223)
Slugging Pct. .304 (79-for-260) .498 (111-for-223)



ALCS GAME 4 MATCHUP NOTES
TIM WAKEFIELD (RED SOX) VS. PAUL BYRD (INDIANS)
Indians hitters who match up well vs. Wakefield

Victor Martinez The switch-hitting catcher bats from the right side against the veteran knuckleballer for good reason. Martinez is 3-for-5 with a homer against Wakefield.

Chris Gomez The backup infielder has posted huge numbers against Wakefield in the past. His .625 career slugging percentage against the Boston right-hander ranks fifth among all active players who have faced him 20 times or more.

Jason Michaels Has hit the knuck (1-for-3 against it) and has the lowest chase rate of all Tribe hitters against it (one chase of 12 out-of-zone pitches).

Indians hitters who could struggle

Travis Hafner Wakefield performs very well against left-handed power hitters. Lefties who bat three through five in the lineup hit .122 (12-for-98) against him this season. Hafner is 0-for-7 lifetime against Wakefield.

Jhonny Peralta 1-for-6 career against Wakefield with a home run, but that came against his fastball, which he uses just ten times per game on average.

Asdrubal Cabrera The rookie second baseman gets his first taste of the knuckler and Wakefield has owned hitters who bat in the No. 2 spot in the order (.191 batting average against).

Red Sox hitters who match up well vs. Byrd

Bobby Kielty Manager Terry Francona will have a similar decision to make as he did in Game 1, when he used reserve outfielder Kielty instead of J.D. Drew. That move paid off against C.C. Sabathia. Kielty is 10-for-30 (.333) with four homers in his career against Byrd. Drew is 2-for-10 (.200) with a pair of singles.

Dustin Pedroia The rookie infielder went 2-for-3 this season against Byrd and hit .500 (15-for-30) with five extra-base hits against pitchers who have similar stuff.

David Ortiz He is 8-for-26 (.308) lifetime against Byrd. Big Papi has homered off of his fastball and is 2-for-4 in scouted at-bats ending on Byrd's off-speed pitches.

Red Sox hitters who could struggle

Kevin Youkilis Has the worst career numbers of any Sox hitter against Byrd (1-for-9) and hit .203 (14-for-64) against other right-handers with low-velocity fastballs since 2006.

J.D. Drew He's 2-for-10 (.200) against Byrd in his career, but has hit him hard three times. Byrd has had success against Drew when he pounds his fastball down-and-away, and keeps his changeup down in the zone.

Eric Hinske Byrd generally does better against right-handed batters, but the left-handed Hinske is just 2-for-10 with one well-hit ball in his career against him.


This info actually changes my lean towards CLE. Regardless not playing it anyway....