MLB Monday Thoughts

Yesteday I was distracted and did horrible in basbeall. Short on time but looking at this game since last nite.

Cubs + 190(4x) & 1st 5 Innings + 185 Cubs (2x)

This based on my feeling Arroyo is tired and doesnt have much left in his arm after a long season. My evidence is his last start vs Houston where he just lost it completely in the 5th and 6 th innings. Now since he has dominanted the Cubs this year I think we get a HIGH price(INFLATED). Miller has shown tremendous improvement past 2 starts and always seems to have good day splits. he has been thru a lot but still a 3.08 career ERA in the day.

Cincy has lost 23 of 31 during the day including 7 of 10 when Arroyo starts in the day.

The reds offense is real quiet lately scoring more then 4 runs just once in the past 10 games and hitting .215 against RHB. Miller has been weak against LHP but only faces 3 today. The reds lineup has POOR day splits while teh top of the Cubs lineup 1-5 has some impressive NUMBERS

Thats all I have time to say.......really like Chi here despite Arroyo's track record!

That is just the reflection of past few weeks. Amazing 5-4 defeat.

Rest of the day:

Thinking about-

Over 5 -108 team total White Sox

Mainly because I like the way they are swinging now facing up and down Cliff Lee. Lee allows 5.93 runs per start at home , 8 of teh past 10 Cle games have seen teh oppositions score at least 5 , 8 of Lee's last 10 starts vs Chi have seen the Sox score at least 5 runs ( not off him against the team). His last 5 home vs CHI have seen 11, 8, 5,5, and 14.

White Sox -114

Garlands last start scares me as I said he was slowly regressing after pitching so well for awhile. Now he has pitched well in Cleveland but the Tribe are playing better recently. Also Lee as I mentioned pitches better @ Chicago then versus Chi. Which opens the door for a 1st 5 Inning over as well.

Under 9.5 -110 in Boston

Looks attractive because Eddings behind the dish sees less then 8 run ns per start. While Wake is sound indoors with a 3.74 ERA though the roof could be open. The scare part is Wake struggling and Marcum not much more then a 5 inning guy with decnt home splits. Unlikely I touch this.

Under NY +100 and NY -149

Seem like strong plays to me. Wright pitching for a playoff spot in the rotation has thrown well lately. Has a sound track record against TB winning all 6 starts as a Yankee and pitched 2 excellent 6 inning games vs them in 2006. Seo has been real solid and lost an earlier mmeeting to Wright 1-0. Naturally under 1st 5 Inning as well sounds good. Maybe tyeam totals unders a s well.

Twins -210 or -1 run

KC appears to have quit IMO. 17-9 @ home vs LHP, .366 last 10 includes 4 wins vs LHP , and .317 at home vs LHP. Now DeLaRosa pitching well and pitched well against Santana. So thinking under or KC under 4 .

Two plays seem to easy in Philly and LAA...have to really look at those.

Liking Mets -161 with every start meaning something for Glavine. As well as Under 8.5 .

STL with Suppan is about the best way to back them now. Wells a fade on the road IMO. Th eunder 9 looks solid cause STL soft against LHP and Suppan tough at home...

Think Zona +152 is worth a shot maybe no Bonds or Durham and Gonzo out pitching Schidmtlately....under 4.5 SFG look senticing!

be back just a glimpse

Tonite's Card:

Over 5 -108 White Sox team total (2.5x)

Would really likely to play the Sox but just cant overlook how well the Tribe just played and how well they played against Chicago this year.

Yankees -149 (6x)

Under 10 +100 Tampa (2x)

Under 5.5 +105 1st 5 Inn (2x)

Under TB 4.5 -120 (1x)Under NYY -5.5 -104 (1x)team totals

Twins -210 (2x)

Under 9.5 +100 Twins (3x)

Under 4 -116 KC team total (1x)

LAA -143 (2x)

A's -139 (2x)

NL

NYM -157 (now4x)

Under 8.5 -107 Wash(4x)

STL -136 (6x)

Under 9 +100 STL(2x)

DBacks +153 (1.5x)

GL

NFL

Saints +4.5 -110 (4x) Saints ML +190 (1.5x)

For me I ahve talked enxtensivly about this game. We hear about the ATL rushing game but I still see only 20 and 14 on the scoreboard. Great they can run the ball because of missed FG's , poor 3rd dwon conversion % , and still a questionable runng game the points havent come. Morten Andersen is a legend but should he be kicking after 2 years off and now 46. Oh and he wasnt in camp with anyone and recently called NO to see if he could retire a Saint. Odd situation.

ATL just seems like the same ole Dirty Birds to me. Vick hasnt don eanything to quiet the criticism IMO failing to throw for a 1st down on 3rd down in 5 2nd Half attempts. I mention that cause twice in the 2nd H scoring 1 TD. Teams are adjusting and while NO isnt TB or CAR I still think its a decent unit. Was the previous defenses responsible for ATL lack of points or was it the offense itself.

NO is a completely new team with a new HC. They traded(not literally) Brees for Brooks, they have Deuce and Bush instead of Smith and Stecker. Horn is healthy again this is NOT The 2005 version. Which still gave ATL headaches 3 point home loss aided by 2 defensive scores by ATL. A 3 pt Half defecit in ATL but NO failed to make any 2nd H plays and lost by DD's.

The feel good story is nice but wares off quickly. I see a greatly improved NO team that was always talented....who saw them winning only 3 games?? The talent was there. I dont see 2006 ATL vastily different then 2005 ATL especially if Abraham is OUT.

Thought this line should have been closer to -2 then -4 so some value. Lots to say and little time......

earlier this week I played Over 40.5 -104 (3x) but I will hedge that with Under 45-110(4x)...1 extra unit on the u45!

BTW I truly believe in extremes in life. LAst year everything bounced against NO to even the scales and regain balance you would need alot to go right for them this year. That's just my take on life....which backs my game handicapping....