Random NFL Thoughts :


Miami @ Buffalo :

- As a reminder back in Dec '03 the Phins with Jay Feidler @ QB went to Buffalo in 35 degree weather and 3 pt dogs leaving with a 20-3 win. The had 169 total yards of offense that day and 12 penalties. Just for the theory of the warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue in Dec angle. As well as the recent Miami MNF game in Pitt with the terrible weather and worse field.

- Miami is 0-6 AWAY with 4 losses by 3 points and 2 losses by 10 points. If they converted 1st goal from the 1 yd line @ Philly it would have been 5 of the 6 losses by 3 points ( they didn't I know coulda, woulda, shoulda). You could include the London game in this discussion which they lost 13-10 which would make 5 of 7 by THREE points. The funny part and I would attribute it to better opposition and more pressure to win is they have been smoked at HOME with only 1 LOSS by three points , against Buffalo . Dallas 17 , NE 21, NYJ 27, and Oakland 18 have traveled to Miami and smoked them by at least 17 points!!

- Miami is down to 3rd string QB Rookie John Beck . Who being he played @ BYU could be moe prepared for the weather the Buffalo Rookie Trent Edwards of Stanford. Just a thought. Remember it supposed to rain which I guess could be snow if Temps permit but remember Becj just played in rainy weather @ Pitt and did fairly well. The Phins if Chatman is unavailable or limited could be down to 4th and 5th RB's in Samkon Gado and Lorenzo Booker. Both got there 1st Miami carries last week. Gado burst onto the scene in 05 with three 100+ games in the 5 which he saw at least 20 carries. They have lost most of there passing leaders when Chambers was dealt and Ronnie Brown went down with injury. Ted Ginn Jr has stepped it up some in recent weeks. Basically the Phins have been left without playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. If thats not enough Marty Booker appears to be a gametime decision. Who starts Hagan & Ginn ?? Lots of two TE sets??

- For Buffalo Trent Edwards is 4-1 as a starter actually 1 point and 1 late FG short of being undefeated. He defeated NYJ and Balt narrowly at home will winning @ NYJ( with help from Losman) and Wash last week. I finally think the chinks in the defense have shown in recent weeks more so the pass defense. They did keep Wash in check especially on the ground but Wash also was 1 of 4 in the red zone settling for 3 short FGs ( the longest being 33 yds) and also were 1-2 in goal to go situations. So the opportunity was there to score against them. The previous weeks Jax had 36 but 17 fourth quarter points and NE had 50 ++ . However again vs Jax the Jags managed 1-5 in the red zone and 0-2 in goal to go situations! They allowed TWO 50+ YD TD plays. Also with Edwards in there instead of Losman Lee Evans cannot be the big play WR he is. Edwards just doesnt throw it as well deep and probably wont be asked to do it much.

- Buffalo could have Lynch back running the ball but A-Train is still OUT leaving Fred Jackson again in a position of need.

- On paper you look at this and ask how can Miami score ? How is Buffalo just -7 when they were small favs as much as -3 in Miami with Lemon and Chatman healthy. Wouldnt -10 make more sense?? I think partially with poor teams its just not as cut and dry as home field is worth 3 or 3.5 pts. Some HOME teams have ZERO Home value and thats what looks like what is going in Miami. The last meeting was basicaly dominanted by Miami and they lost ! Most players felt that was the TOUGHEST close loss of all although the Pitt game didnt take place at the time of those comments.

The Dolphins committed no turnovers, allowed Buffalo to convert only two third downs and benefited from a big day by journeyman Jesse Chatman, who rushed for a career-high 124 yards. Still they lost.

He then ran for the 2-point conversion, spinning across the goal after he was hit to make it 10-all.

Miami's Ted Ginn Jr. returned the kickoff 86 yards for an apparent touchdown, but the score was negated by a holding penalty on Greg Camarillo."I wish that could have been the play to take us into a victory," said Camarillo, his voice shaking with emotion half an hour after the game. "I thought it was a fair play, but the refs called it, and I'm guilty. I'll take the blame for it."

The Dolphins made two first downs before punting, and Roscoe Parrish returned the kick 40 yards to midfield with 4:37 left. Buffalo converted two third-down situations to move to the 16 and set up Lindell's field goal.

- Miami lost Cameron Worrell being replaced by Lance Schulters in the starting lineup and CB Michael Lehan did not practice on Friday.

-NO matter how you look it at the Dolphins are one of the worst teams on paper I can recall in 20 years.


So my feeling is this again a game where the weather neutralizes the offenses. On paper Buffalo laying just 7 seems cheap versus this Miami lineup. However if the weather is what it appears to be then we could be looking at another bore fest !! And my gut seems to think Miami plays well here after the SHIT FEST last Sunday. The KEY is watching the weather in the AM and early afternoon


Rams @ Bengals :

- Somehow the RAMS should be winners of 5 straight. However losing Jackson to injury vs Cle lead them to blow an early big lead and followed suit a few weeks later when Bulger went down vs Seattle . Still they are 3-2 L5 with two road wins. The problem here is not only is Bulger OUT but Frerotte is UNABLE to start as well . Leaving Brock Berlin in his NFL debut.....on the road , in bad weather , and on grass!

Berlin has been on the practice squad all year and hardly even worked with the Rams' wide receivers in practice this week.The smallish, weak-armed former Florida Gator and Miami Hurricane knows Scott Linehan's system, but that's about it. Berlin's addition signals the Rams could be preparing to be without Marc Bulger (head) in Week 13 oh BOY!!!

- One would think Stephen Jackson and the running game will see alot of action. This could be troublesome though if you look at Cincy vs the RUN past few games. They did a solid job @ Pitt vs Willie Parker , at home Tenny and then Edge did very little. Even McGahee @ Balt was slowed 17c 60yds. So being they can stop the RUN suddenly it seems STL is in for along tough day as Berlin is in a terrible SPOT! Remember there OL has been an issue all season! There defense has some injuries as well.

- Outside of the game @ NO when all were healthy the Rams OFFENSE has been non existant on the road.

While the RAMS defense concerns along with the possibility of Berlin giving a potent offense short fields you have to like UND 45.5 , Under 17.5 Rams team (guessing) and I may have to tease Cincy to EVEN with something else....

Oakland @ GB :

This will be GB at it's FINEST ! Weather that is...15 to 20 degrees!!!! GB can CLINCH a playoff game and HOME playoff game as well as the CENTRAL with a home win.

- This really sets up as an interesting game for a few reasons. First you wonder if now that GB has lost (again) if the air is out of there bubble?? Sort of a flat period ..?? Not sure just wondering and think it's highly possible. The cold weather with warm weather OAK coming to town. Very interesting !! Luckily its a 1 PM game when the sun should be out still and not be as miserable as later start would be. Still pretty rough situation. However the STORY is Brett Favre !! Folks he didnt return vs Dallas ...not a good sign , Rodgers is OUT with Nall as backup...not a good sign , inconsistent reports on his injury....not a good sign ...seperated left shoulder Or his elbow ?? Worse is if his left shoulder is seperated think what being slammed down to the ground ..uhm Frozen Tundra will do to that !!!

- The GB run defense has been somewhat subpar of late allowing 4.3 YPC past 3 games. You can't be to excited by the WINS vs Carolina w/o Steve Smith and Minny with Bollinger @ QB . They do have the benfit of some exra rest here. As well as probably seeing KGB and Woodson return although you dont know how the extreme cold factors into this.

- OAK playing better and relatively healthy are traveling for 3rd time in 4 weeks and into a different time zone. The Raiders are playing better even winning consecutive divisional games!! However they have been shredded on the ground on the road allowing all opponents starting RB in excess of 100+ yards actually Travis Henry had the low of 128!!!!!! Grant has been solid running the rock but Justin Fargas has been just as good probably better past few games. OAK is 4-2 ATS away this year....


Based mainly on my belief that Favre is less then 100% and could see limited action the +10.5 / +11 is the play with a possible UNDER sprinkled in .



Still looking at the OTHER 5 early starts ! Though really seem to like Car +11 and Over 38 -120 , Philly and the Lions.....Good Luck

Monday NBA:

Charlotte @ Toronto :

The Bobcats have decided to start Jared Dudley in place of Primo Brezec. Which should slide Okefor over to the middle and put Dudley @ PF. Brezec really had not done much and seen a considerable dropoff from a few seasons ago. Basically Char is going smaller and you would think they may be play a bit faster pace. Raptors will be w/o Bosh , Bargnani and Ford it looks like on Monday. Which leaves Delfino , Calderon , Moon , Nesterovic , Kapono and Parker. With Dixon , Baston , Humphries , Graham and Martin . Now in the loss @ Wash the Raps got next to nothing from Ford and Bargnani.

Cats are searching for answers losing 5 straight including two tough losses in OT vs Wash and Boston. They have lost 8 of 10 in the series vs Toronto. You would expect a faster paced game.

The OVER 189 and due to value a play on Char +4 and / or ML. Just think how they struggled with Cle at home when Lebron was absent ....Bargnani played well that night ...

Atl @ Philly :

Sixers have won 8 of 10 in the series. Here are two teams you can't figure out. They are models for inconsistency despite being poor to begin with. Philly looked good for most of there past 5 games but they tend to play 1 good half and follow it with one awful half. A great team if leading at HALF to fade. On paper ATL is the better team but there PG issues keep them medicore at best.

I would have suspected more of a PK line so I would prefer ATL +3. Even though my 1st intinct was Philly wins this game. The total is spot on at 180 cause offense woes are obvious for both. ATL has played 6 straight unders and they have only cracked 180 once(181). This game looks to be played in the 80's...

Portland @ Memphis:

The Blazers have been terrible of late especially on the offensive side of the ball. However this game smells of OVERREACTION. The Grizz did smoke Minny who was short a few bodies off a tough home loss to SA. Remember when they were outscored by a TON in the 4th quarter. Portland looked terrible yesterday but did beat Memphis earlier in Portland. I would have expected more like -6 here...while the pace should be fast wouldnt take an over @ 204 when they continue to score about 85 points. Now being terrible on the road is one thing to consider as Dallas was one of there first ATS covers that were NOT a SU win.

Dallas @ Chicago :

With the struggles they are facing it is hard to back Dallas at this point. On the other hand can we be happy with CHI after consecutive wins?? Type of game it may be better to watch a Half before getting involved. The total seems low to me but has moved lower. I would have expected this game to be around 190 . The games in Chicagotend to be around 190 pts so no value either way but a higher total 194 ish would have put me on the UNDER...

Miami @ Utah :

Miami has stunk in most of there recnt games especially the past two. However they do own 7 straight wins against UTAH. The two times that Miami caught big numbers they covered this season. However Utah has laid some beatdowns in Utah and Miami is coming off a game in Denver. The Heat havent scored much on the road and they need to play in the low 90's to keep it a game. The problem with Utah is they have scored a ton at home and there ercnt games have played OVER despite few times where they allowed even 95 points.....

Orl @ GSW :

One of the game sthat a situational / professional bettor loves to see. Two hot teams squaring off but the Magic ending a 5 game Western swing coming off tough games in Pho and LAL. Orl is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when most teams fail to be able to cover an entire trip .

GS is simply playing excellent balland to me is the hottest team in the NBA. Couped with the situational aspect youhave to like the home squad. I would guess professional bettors jumped on GSW -1 and pushed it to -3.....

The total seems high so would lean UNDER....