NFL week 8 Sunday

Not sure I wil be around before the 1 PM kicks....so here is basically what I am thinking and almsot definetly doing. Line moves can dictate decisions.....

Houston @ Tenn
Gonna play Texans @ +3.5 even if I have to buy it. Played the Under 42 already both 3 units.

Jax @ Philly
With Stroud out this defense is thin but laying 9 NOT interested. played -6.5 -110 for 3 units a couple days ago. Would have loved to have been the Under 43 but now 39.5

ATL @ Cincy
playing Bengals if I have to buy -3 for 5 units at least(5-8). Played the Over 44 for 2 units

TB @ NYG
Played the under 41 for 3 units. real like NY here but trying for a better number if we see 8's definetly a 3 unit play

SF @ Chi
If Mike brown were healthy no doubt I would lay it. With him out the secondary makes me nervous so no plays on this game. While 16 looks high I rather focus on the fact SF was +10 at home vs SD and Chi was -11 @ Zona...plus the fact the avg score in CHI is like 38-7.

Ari@ GB
Played the Cards +4.5 for 5 units. Basically with Fitz out and every WR outside of Driver shelved the over would scare me...probably rather go Und 45.

Sea@ KC
Played the Hawks +6 for 5 units...if Croyle doesnt start I am only playing half of it. Like the over but thats gambling!

Balt @ NO
Definetly playing Ravens here 3 to 5 units. Liking the under at 37 or better..

Then @ 4PM
8x on over 41 -122 STL
6x on STL +10 and 6x on SD -9 -110

4x on Under 38.5 Oakland.... Oakland +9 (3x)

6x on Browns -1-116

10x on Denver my fav play of the day -2.5....wanted to go over but I missed it at37.

I should be around at some point . Just consider this my Cliffs Note version

Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver.


Early starts were:
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x)
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x)
Cincy -3-125 (6x) & Over 44 -110 (2x)
Seahwaks +6 +100 (2.5x)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) & Under 41 -105 (3x)
ARi +4.5 -110 (5x)
Ravens ML +118 (5x)

Plus whatever team totals I had posted. GL

NCAAF~
+21-105 UConn (4x)


Well I apologize for not being around and doing a better job discussing the games. Just couldnt get internet access were I was.

Todays recap~
Team totals

Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x) (28) Loss -1.04
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x) (13) Win +2.50
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x) (29) Win +1.00
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) (10) Win +2.00
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x) (24) Win +2.00

Net +6.46

1 PM starts
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) L & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x) L -6.90
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x) L -3.30
Cincy -3-125 (6x) L & Over 44 -110 (2x) W net-5.50
Seahawks +6 +100 (2.5x) L -2.5 (had the other half middled -3.5 & +6)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) W& Under 41 -105 (3x) W +5.00
Cards +4.5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Ravens ML +118 (5x) W +5.90

Net -12.80

4 Pm starts

8x on over 41 -122 STL W +8.00
4x on Under 38.5 -105Oakland W +4.00
Oakland +9 -110(3x) W +3.00
6x on Browns -1-116 W +6.00
10x on Denver-2.5 -110 L -11.10
Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver W +4.00

Net +10.90 & +4. for the teaser

No play at nite although I liked dallas.

Sides & totals Net -1.90
Teasers +4.00
Team Totals +6.46

So +8.56 for everything not great but a couple close misses in Cincy and Denver are like a 35 unit swing......

Oh and UConn +21 (4x) ATS win L 24-13 +4.00

Thee Week 9 College Football Cliffs Notes Version

With all the stuff I have going on a busy day an obsessive - compulsive , perfectionist freak like me needs organization. So here I will simpy list the plays by time and comment in the orginial thread. I added some DOGS that I thought were to FAT or is PHAT? Anyway...

Noon Starts and 1 PM's:

Missouri ML -115 (3x) Loss 26-10 (-3.45) said that under!
Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State(3x) 1stH 27.5 -105 (1x) Win (+4.00)
Virginia +105 (3x) Win 14-7 (+3.15)
Illinois +22.5 -110 (1x) 1st H +12.5 -105(1x) *new* ATS Win Wiskyu wins 30-24(+2.00)
Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x) *back to 5x* ATS Win Iowa wins 24-14 (+5.00)
Under 48 -110 Penn State (2x) 12-0 Penn State (+2.00) like PSU
Northwestern +35 -120 (2x) 1st H +19.5 -101 (1x) ATS win 17-3 final (+3.00)
Duke + 10-120 (2x) Loss dumb play! (-2.40)
Buffalo +36 -110 (3x) Loss 41-0 (-3.30)
Temple +20 -105 (5x) ML +840 (1x) Temple wins SU 28-14 (+13.40)

Net +23.40

Team Totals :
Under 22.5 -108 Oklahoma (1x) Loss (26)
Under 17 -108 Navy (1x) Win (14)
Over 31 -108 mich St(1x) Loss (21)
Over 24 -108 Indiana (1x) Win (46)
Under 39.5 -108 BC (1.5x) Loss (41)
Under 35.5 -108 BG (2x) Win (14)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x) Win (28)

Net +1.72

2 PM starts
Air Force +10 -115 (1.5x) *new* Loss 33-14 (-1.73)
Over 55 -105 Air Force and BYU (5x) Loss(-5.25)
Army +6 -104 (3x) Loss 42-28 (-3.12)
Over Tulane & Army 50 -105 (3x) (70) Win (+3.00)
Under Kansas & Colorado 43 -120 (1.5x) Win (35) (+1.50)
Miami-Ohio -3-105 (2x) (-2.10) Lost 20-17

Net -7.70

Team Totals
Over 27.5 -116 Tulane (1x) Win (42)

Net +1.00

3:30PM's
North Carolina +9 -110 (1x) ML +310 (1x) Lost 24-17 Wash
Under 42 -112 Wake (3x) Win (41) (+3.00)
Miami U +6 -110 (3x) Loss -3.30 31-23...said over 37!
Georgia +14 -120 (1.5x) ATS Win 21-14 (+1.50)
Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Okl State (5x) Win(64?) (+5.00)
Over 57 -105 UCF & Houston (4x) Win (76?)(+4.00)
North Texas +10.5 -108 (1x) ATS Win L14-6(+1.00)
Iowa State +5.5 -110 (3x) Loss 31-10 (-3.30)

Net:+7.90(+23.60 to this point)

Team Totals
Over 15.5 Miami -108 (2x) Win(23)
Under 24.5 -108 Wake (1.5x) Win(24)

Net +3.50(+6.22 up to this)

7PM's
UCLA -114 (3x) Loss -3.42
Arizona State -120 (4x) Win +4.00
Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x) ATS Win +3.00
UL Monroe +36 -110 (2x) ATS Win +2.00
Baylor +5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Toledo +4.5 -110 (1x) Win +1.00
TCU -6.5 -110 (2x) Win +2.00
South Carolina +4 -110 (2x) L -2.20
Under 71.5 -109 Hawaii (3x) L -3.27

Net -2.39 (+21.21 sides & totals)

Team Totals
Over 20.5 -108 East Carolina (1x) L -1.08

Net -1.08 (+5.14x on these all day)

Game #5 World Series

Really short on time an unprepared for a detailed discussion. from early on the week I liked Verlander in this spot and cant say exactly why. Probably cause I figured the line would wind up cheaper then it should be. Really this game shhould be -130 DET imo. Lets just remember that he was -190 at home versus Reyes who grades out as pricer SP then Weaver(probably 15 cents stronger).

From baseball standpoint I like that Verlander has worked on his mechanics and supposedly fixed a few things(ie: use his lower ody which is why his arm tired out but is supposedly good now). I like that peopel are overlooking how dynamic he can be calling for Rogers to start here....which would be the wrong decision in my book. To me if Verlander can get on his game then only Pujols scares me cause I dont like the STL lineup versus power arms. The other point is I think Weaver gets hit hard tonite. It sjust a feeling that I cant backup BUT the Tigers bats looked better last nite it was there defense that killed them. They hit Weaver in Game 1 scattering 9 hits and staistically he pitched better away. Also this is more pressure IMO and he could buckle. You get into STL long and middle relief and they aent that strong.

So without much logical or factual reasoning.....

PLAY:
Detriot Tigers -119 (4x)
Over 7.5 -114 (4x)

World Series Game #4

Bonderman versus Suppan

In 10 2nd Home starts Suppan was dazzling. For some reason SD gives him trouble and he had 2 poor starts vs them at the end of the reg season and in the 1st round of the playoffs. Other then that he only pitched one poor game vs Philly(5 inn with 5 runs and 4 earned). His other starts read:

7 Inn 5H 1 run 2bb 6 K
7 1/3 Inn 4 H 1 run 1bb 7 K
7 2/3 Inn 5 H o runs 3 Bb 2 K
7 inn 6 H 1 run 4 BB 5 K
7 Inn 8 H 3 runs 0bb 6 K
7 Inn 5 H 2 runs 3 bb 2k
8 Inn 3 H 0 runs 1bb 4 K

Thats darn impressive..8 runs across 7 starts...51 innings....at least 7 each outing...

Now DET is just 3-5 after being shutout so no bounce back in there past. STL is 7-4 after throwing a shutout.

STL is 8-2 UNDER in SUPPAN's starts but the totals were always above 9 except on 2 occassions. DET is 2-6 UNDER after being shutout.

Its clear that the Tigers are struggling with the bat so what should change here??? Suppan is clearly throwing very well and shutdown the NYM in impressive fashion last week.

Bonderman has been fantastic on the road and at nite. He is 8-4 away(10-7) 3.63 ERA and 13-2 at nite(15-8 team) 3.35 ERA. For as well as he pitched away though we have another long layoff and he went 7 innings just 7 of 17 away. Which brings the pen into the equation and Zumaya and Rodney lacked command while Todd Jones scares no one.

Bonderman pitched well vs STL at home this year but he also faced a lineup with Timo Perez and John Rodriguez, oh and Gary Bennett.

Another cold nite and good chance of rain but it appears like more of the same tonite.....close game...low scoring....If bonderman cant shut STL down to 1 run or less wheres the value in the Dog then??

I didnt play the Under 8 yesterday and I cant force myself to play the Under here. I just expect more of the same which means a STL win...not getting crazy...

Interesting PROP will Todd Jones get a save? NO -240.......things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmm!

As a guy who looks for bad lines I see this as being off figured -120...which was still cheap as I had built in the public bias towards DETin that -120....remember Carpenter was at least a .25 cheap last nite.

Good Luck

PLAY :
Slight change
STL -105 (3x)

I just find it odd that the price gets cheaper yet it seems we have more STL backers.....also odd the vig on the total chanegd about 20 cents.

Dont bother watching CARDS fans this game is OVER!! Its so odd how the line moves in favor of DET and the OVER today and thats what we will seee....My play is a LOSER........sorry....would recomend playing the OVER in-game....

Shit I was wrong........Cards win 5-4! I was right about the over all those ingame plays had to pay nicely......except I kept missing it!!

Now 8-0 in the World Series +apprx 24x.

GL

Tuesday Nite World Series Thoughts Game #3


Tonite we have Nate Robertson facing Chris Carpenter


Umpire Trends for Wally Bell

-Home team is 55-23 L78
-Tigers have lost 12 of past 16 at nite with Bell behind the dish
-Home team is 19-7 L26 interleague games with Bell
-Home team is 16-5 L21 at nite

Both teams are 52 -33 on the road for DET and STL at home.

Robertson has not pitched since 10/10 and its hard to say how he will respond. I tend to believe that at this point in the season these guys dont mind the extra rest. You cant really say what type of command they will have but generally most of the guys have been the same SP's in the playoffs on long rest they were all season IMO.

Lets back track abit:

Carpenter at home in 2006:
10/8 SD 7 Innings 7 Hits 2 earned runs 3Bb 5 K's.
9/26 SD 7 Innings 12 Hits 6 earned runs 2BB 6 K's
9/16 SF 7 Innings 5 hits 1 earned run 2Bb 9K's.
9/11 Hou 9 Inn 6 hits 0 earned runs 2 BB 6K's.
9/1 Pitt 9 Inn 3Hits 1earned run 0BB 8Ks.

8/26 Chi 8 Inn 2 hits 1 earned runs 1BB 5 K's.
8/15 Cin 9 Inn 4 hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 6 K's.
8/4 Milw 6 inn 7 Hits 4 earned runs 0Bb 3 K's.

7/19 Atl 7 inn 5 hits 2 earned runs 0Bb 6 K's.
7/14 LAD 9 Inn 2Hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 7 K's

He won all the 2nd H starts EXCEPT the two were he actually allowed some runs in. That 8-2 in 10 starts. He allowed a total of 7 RUNs in 8 starts(65 innings) that were wins!!! His ERA was 0.97!!! He allowed 10 runs in the 2 losses(13 innings).

First half:
6/28 Cle 7 Inn 5 Hits 1 earned run 1 BB 4 K
6/16 Col 7 inn 7 hits 1 earned run 1 Bb 4 K
6/6 Cin 5 Inn 9 Hits 3 earned runs 2 BB 5 K

5/14 Ari 6 Inn 5 hits 0earned (3runs) 1bb 4 K
5/9 Col 7 inn 4 H 2 earned runs 6 bb 6K's

4/29 Was 7 inn 9 hits 1 earned runs 0 bb 3 K
4/24 Pitt 6 Inn 8 hits 2 earned runs 1bb 3 K
4/14 Cin 8 Inn 4hits 1 earned runs 3bb 6K

First half 5-3 ...7 earned runs in 34 innings for 1.85 era in his wins. In his losses 4 earned runs ( 7runs) in 19 innings..

So in conclusion he allowed more then 3 Runs in just 2 home starts over the entire season, he allowed 3 runs exactly on 2 ocassions. The other 14 home starst he allowed 2 runs or less. he went 6 innings three times and 5 times once. Otherwise he went at least 7 innings. His last reg season start versus SD he was basically asked to win or lose the game. The pen was in shambles and the Cards deperate for a WIN. So basically he was hung out to dry IMO.

In 2 World Series games thus far we have seen the tigers score 4 times and twice on solo HR's by Monroe.

For the season Carpenter recieved 4.33 runs and allowed 2.44.
He went 9-4 (STL 13-5) with a 1.85 ERA. With 12 of 18 going under. With a WHIP slightily below 1.00.

Robertson pitched wll on the road and Inter league play. He was 7-6 (DET 7-10) on the road. He received 4.29 runs and allowed 3.88. Away 11 of 17 went away and his numbers are just as solid if NOT better with regards to nite splits.

In the 2nd Half of the season I documented STL troubles with LHP but they did go 8-5 at home(plus 1-1 in the playoffs) in the 2nd H as compared to 0-9 away. In 2006 Carpenter faced a LHP at home on 5 occassions with 4 Unders receiving 3,2,3,0 and 7 runs of support.


With regards to Roberston never facing STL or even many of its hitters you would think he has a nice edge.

Based on the fact that STL typically performs somewhat better at home versus LHP , based on the fact the Tigers are not hitting well and going against probably the toughest SP in a home park and are undervalued @ -143 I think STL is the play. I love the fact we could see Wilson and taguchi in the lineup been calling for that since mid-mets series. With regards to the line even when DET was rolling back in June Carpenter was favored -120 against Verlander. Really no reason other then public hype that surrounded DET before the series that this game is nOT at least -165 IMO.

Play: Cards -143 (7x now 6x) & Under 3.5 +105 (2.5x) Tigers team

Looking at others....game total @ 8 runs was probably a play but not 7.5 . Also got a little nervous with the fact that this line wnet straight down yesterday and slowly creeped up today. What I take from that is usually the sharp bettors hit DET early for whatever reason and Joe Pub is playing STL all day today.....just something to be aware of. If I didnt reduce it a bit I would kick myself if I missed something , althouh I dont feel I have.

I realize I didnt talk much about Robertson but he deserves mention. He tends to be either very good or very bad...think at least 6 times he allowed at least 6 runs and 5 runs another 2 times. For the most part he had just 3 bad starts on the road ..@ NY in the divisional series , and 5 runs on two ocassions but still managed 6 and 7 innings.

He did extremely well against 4 NL Central teams (Hou , ChiC , Cincy, and Milw). In those 4 stafrts just 4 earned in 28 innings but all 4 in 13 2/3 away (Milw and Chic). All 4 went UNDER though. hile he was unscored upon in Oakland I didnt like the wayhe pitched. He battled but 9 baserunners in 5 innings basically left him with 3 consecutive poor outings...

He deserves credit but I fell he is getting 2 much at this time.

Monday Nite Football


Under 45 -110 NYG and Dallas(6x) & Under 24 -110 Dallas team (1x)


A few things stuck out to me here. First I was suprised to see this total set so high. The next is that Covers.com had to have an article saying how inflated this total was...then I read deeper and claims its only 1 point to high. Which I was happy to see cause IMO its probably more like 3 points to high. You can see from week to week NYG totals are all over the place. They overreacted to the Seattle debacle and placed a 46 total on a Skins- NYG matchup. Last week in ATL which in some ways is very close to a Dallas team they set it at only 41. Dallas highest total was 43.5 before this game. So you gets get the point I think we are little heavy here...

Lets talk series history. The past 5 meetings in dallas have not seen more then 38 combined points and the home team DALLAS has never bested 20 points in any of those games.

Quick look:
Dallas wins 19-16 in OT last year
NYG wins 26-10
Dallas wins 19-3
NYG wins 21-17
Dallas wins 20-13

last year NYG won 17-10 @ the Meadowlands and lost 19-16 in OT down in Dallas.

In the 1st meeting in Dallas Eli went 14 of 30 for 215 yards and Tike ran 14 times for 64 yards
most of which came late in the game when NYG scrambled to send it to overtime after Jose Cortez had trouble icing the game. The teams combined to go 1-8 from the red zone , lose 6 fumbles and throw 2 picks!! NYG netted 270 yards in the game 217 came in the 4th quarter which I believe largely is a result of DALLAS not icing the game.

The second meeting in NYG saw only 480 yards of total offense by the teams combined and a defensive score. At home ELi was 12 of 31 for 151 yards with 2 picks. Tiki was solid with 30 carries and 115 yards.

So while I see another tough NFC East battle here I am also putting faith that the NYG defense we have seen the past 2 weeks is the one that will show up. Really the NYG offense hasnt done that much verus Washington and Atlanta sort of returning to Coughlin style football. Down 14-3 in ATL they used the running game to move the chains and converted 3 short TDS from inside the 5 yard line. After watching the pitt game this week we clearly see the ATL defense is hving issues. Eli seemed off most of the day in ATL and finished 17-30 with 180 yards (2tds and 2 ints). Clearly the duo of Barber and Jacobs got it done with 37 carries for 237 yards. That will be tough to duplicate since ATL has had troubles versus the run and had a banged up defensive front. Dallas did a solid job against Tike last year and allows just 2.9 YPC this season. If the Giants continue to get after the QB then obviously the slow footed and indecisive Drew Bledsoe will have trouble making plays.

NYG have played @ ATL , @ Phi , and @ Seattle so they are road tested . Interestingly though the totals were set 41,42,42 and went over twice with a PUSH. Now IMO those offenses are equal to or better then Dallas. So I am expecting a good ole smash mouth MNF, NFC East battle.

Prop: Under 251.5 -109 passing yards for ELI(1x)
GL

Football week of 10/23 -10/29 Early thoughts

After further review Week 8 in the NFL

Play: Arizona +4.5 -110 (5x)

Curious as to the staus of Adrian Wilson(now probable) and Karlos Dansby(out) but James Darling should return . I do believe that Greg Jennings is OUT while GB already misses Ferguson and Robinson. A couple of undrafted rookies will get the nods at the #2 and #3 spots. That seems troublesome with Favre throwing some of the toughest passes to catch. To there credit the youngsters made a couple of play @ Miami last week. Not crazy about a warm weather team playing in GB but low 40's arent that bad. Charles Woodson showed up for the first time this season in GB but otherwise the pass defense has been horrid. Edge hasnt found any running room and GB is fairly solid against the run . Zona hasnt shown much away losing @ Seattle , @ Atl(though Warner KILLED them in the 1st two away) and now @ Oakland....lets be honest though Oak was a tough spot after the MNF collapse with Leinart making his 1st road start(bad choice by me hopping on Zona). Basically a GB team that has been DOGS to everyone is now favored....hmmmm.....Dare I say overreaction!! Game probably should be a PK... Remember they were home dogs to NO in week 2 AND Favre has made a mistake or two late in games already...

Looking @ buying Houston to +3.5(already went Under 42 -110 3x)

Lets face it Tenn has been +10 , +17 and +12.5 past 3 weeks now they are favored?? Favorite is 0-5 ATS in the series. Houston just hosted JAX and cruised to a win which generally is a spot I dont like to follow up. With HOUSTON for a HALF they played great football @ Dallas till the wheels came off. Thats gonna happen with them cause they just have inferior talent and depth. Despite not winning on the ROAD in a long , long time how are these teams equal? Would Houston been +12.5 @ Wash 2 weeks ago? Very unlikely since they were +13 @ Dallas. Tenny is capable of making plays BUT still very inconsistent. The Titans have put forward top effort though I must say. Still they dont force teams into mistakes and if you allow Carr time he is a solid QB. Lets not get to excited about about a Tenny team that scored less then 16 points in each of there first 5 games. They played great as BIG DOGS @ Indy and @ Wash difference is now at home they are basically expected to win not just show up....


Playing: Broncos -2.5 -110 (7x)

I feel over the years I have noticed that Indy doesnt like physical teams and we all know about this Denver defense. Indy CANNOT stop the RUN and we know that is a huge concern. Basically cause it allows DENVER to control the game and keep the ball away from Peyton. Also with a so-so running game in Indy the Broncos can focus more on the passing game. Remember that DEN went to NE and totally shut the PATS offense down! We keep hearing how bad Plummer is but he really hasnt played a soft defense yet....the rams started the season playing solid DE and Oakland is actually solid on defense this year. Plummer has shown some progress over the weeks and the key is he only needs to help move the chains. Look at how Indy at home struggled verus Jax and remember they most contend with the elements of playing in NOV. Now remember that Indy just lost Doss as well. You cant be impressed with the WASH game cause if you paid attention they lost Carlos Rogers and Springs was still less then 100%. The secondary struggled before losing Rogers so it was gigantic hit that showed...they also played without a DT and LB...Skins were banged up !! Both Colts games away came down to the wire. NYG didnt have the team in sync in week 1 and the Jets gave them a scare! Just dont belive the HYPE surrounding the DEN offense..

Plays I put in w/o research...

Under 42 -110 Houston & Tenny (3x)
Under 41 -105 TB & NYG (3x)
Rams +10 -116 (6x) might buy some back cause who doesnt like STL? Gonna take 3x off this play since it was made thinking no Merriman.
Over 42 -122 Rams (8x) played thinking Merriman would be out
Vikings +3 -125 (5x) &.
Under 38.5 -105 Oakland (3x)
Seattle +6 +100 (5x) was leaning this way and now Huard gets hurt in pratice. Should have played more but it got pulled rather quickly
Eagles -6.5 -110 (3x)

Today's thoughts:
ATL@Cincy now see -3.5 -101 absolutely playing at this level or cheaper.

My first instinct was to go with ATL +4.5 then I started diving into this matchup. First thing is Cincy is struggling some but they have also played NE , @ TB and Car which would qualify as some of the better defenses in the league. Even with all the talent on ATL they are still proving to be a disappointment IMO. They have lost Abraham for awhile and regained Hartwell who I think will need time to get a groove. Also Rod Coleman missed last week and that is a huge loss if he again doesnt play. Look at the past 6 quarters of football for ATL, belive they have allowed 72 points!!

Lets talk about the line itself. Cincy just was -3 to Carolina and pushed so FAIR line IMO. If ATL played Carolina today on a neutral field would the line by -1?? Absolutely not IMO probably -3. Realize that ATL was just a home dog to Pitt and while they won its wasnt decisive IMO. Cincy traveled to Pitt catching 2 and won. However I would say Pitt beat themselves that day. Still the line of +2 implies Cincy is a better team when you take into account home field is worth 3 or 3.5 points in theory.

So now that this line is dropping we cn get 3.5 at many placs if I get -3 I would make a fairly sizeable play on Cincy here. The public is in love with Vick and his 4 TDS...

With regards to Balt @ NO I have changed my stance. Why?

After much thought I am not sure this game should see NO as a favorite. Really it should be a PK and my gametime I expect this to move to 2 or 2.5. Lets remember that the Ravens defense is still a tough matchup. NO has managed to win close games vs Philly and TB. Is TB any better then Balt??? Definetly not IMO especially on defense. To much talk about NO's going undefeated at home has made people forget the just won there last 2 games in the final minutes. McNair has shown the ability to make plays late in the game and that can never be discounted for the simple fact the Ravens defense will always kep them in the game. Remember a bad decision @ Denver before half sealed there fate. The Saints have allowed some huge chunks on the ground and with Fassel gone I would suspect we see alot of Jamal Lewis here, along with Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. Also losing Roman Smith at Safety was huge and the Saints defense hasnt looked sharp past 2 games. leaning towards the DOG if we get the move I suspect is coming.....Balt 17-16. remember Deuce was banged up and Bush hasnt done much in the running game with BALT coming it 3.3 per carry allowed. A young Gradkowski was 20 of 31 for 220 and @tds versus NO in his 1st career road start.

Another one I rethought and wished I played on Monday is Jax @ Philly.

It looks like alot of points to give Jags but they are banged up. If Garrard plays is this the right spot for him Or if Leftwich plays is the Blitz master Jimmie Johmson gonna set them loose versus a bad ankle QB. A defense that could be without Hayward , Peterson (both gone for the season), Wiley questionable but hasnt played in weeks and Stroud oubtful who was out last week. No wonder Houston scored 27. Philly should be aided by Stallwortsh return as well as the anger of 2 straight losses...bringing the games that got away number to 3 this year. Weather doesnt appear to be an issue but wind might be and its stilla FLA team in late OCT playing in the NE. No matter how you slice it or dice it Eagles should be good for at least 21 at home....scoring 14 @ Indy and 7 @ Houston now with QB issues doesnt make me believe it will be EZ for them to break 14 here.....Just remember the playoff game @ NE and think of a similiar type ENDING here. Still some-6.5 -110 out there...

Some TB @ NYG thoughts:

People are all over TB here. With good reason they look like a new team past few weeks. I think if you look at the fact this team was +7 @ NO and + 6 at home to Philly traveling to the Meadowlands at just +9 seems a bit low. Does to me . Now factor in that Gradkowski is having trouble withhis deep ball and you look at his last 2 games and see 4.18 and 4.00 yds per pass attempt. His game in NOwas actually only 5.77 if you take out the 52 yder to Galloway.

factor in both teams are banged up but NY has the depth to overcome it unless there CB situation worsens . Wyms , rice , Quarles and bolden all listed as questionable for TB. Ny off two big road wins and a MNFgame face a defense that hasnt stopped the RUN at all on teh road see ATL stats and Deuce 15c 123 yards. There passing defense hasnt been so solid either. I expect a low scoring game around 23-13. When it starts dropping below -9 I'll take notice...

SF @ Chi

I am torn on this game. Last year SF had no offense and covered( Trust me I know about the WIND that day) . This year Smith looks decent and played vs Chi in the preseason with good results and the Bears dont have Mike Brown. Which I think will show up more in there pass defense then the run defense. I think with a healthy OL Smith might actually break 10 points and see 13 or 14. Both teams needed a week off after there last game. I thought -17 was fair but I think people could be fading Chi cause ofMNF.....



Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x)
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x)
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x)
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) Mike Brown out though he missed after week 13 last year
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x)

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NCAAF

Vatech +4 or better

Will I agree that Clemson is rising and VaTech sliding before our eyes this spread seems ridiculous. They have common opponents in UNC and GaTech. Now while GT exposed VaTech in Blacksburg they were still 8.5 pt dogs while the Hokies were missing 2 very key players. This week GT was heavily backed and was only +7 @ Clemson and kept it close(trailed 17-7) to there defense finally tired after repeated 2 minute possession by the offense. Now Chauncey Stuckey returns here but he probably wont be himself IMO. The running game was huge for Clemson.

Early on Clemson traveled to BC as -1pt chalk and lost a game they should have won in OT and VT just lost there last week as 2.5 pt chalk. They both played UNC and Tech beat them in NC 35-10 as 13 pt favs. While Clemson smoked them 52-7 as 15pt favs.......so really what these lines are saying in the eyes of oddsmakers VaTech is the stronger team on a neutral field ( somewhere around 2 points ...plus HFA and we probably would see -5.5 IF VatTech was playing up to there capabilities)

They arent though and the passing game is troublesome. Both teams possess strong defenses. I think we can agree that Clemson has struggled on the road abit. They blew the game to BC , they were tied late in the 4thQ versus FSU who I dont think is very good and struggled to win @ Wake 27-17 and need a 24 pt 4th Q comeback to do that. I think VaTech at home is just a different animal and I heavily backed them versus SoMiss recently. I expect a defensive battle here and will look to play the under if this total sneaks higher. Proctor hasnt looked very sharp without Stuckey and after weeks of not praticing you wonder how effective the duo will be.

Play: VaTech +4.5 -102(5x), ML +176 (1x) ,VaTech +6 -115(2x) @ BoDog, under 43 -105 (2x) , Under 23.5 Clemson team +114(1x)

Result: Hokies Win 24-7!!! and I hit everything...+11.90

Friday:

Over 54 -110 (3x) UTEP @ Tulsa

UTEP +14.5 -107 (1x) & +15 -110(2x) after some rethinking

Look at the past 3 meetings. Then see how poorly UTEP's defense has played especially in road games. There doesnt seem to be any reason why Tulsa is not in the 30's probably 35++. While the Tulsa defense has played fairly well UTEPs offense should be able to make plays in the passing game with Palmer. For that reason I think UTEP breaks the 20 point barrier in a shootout...

Saturday..

This week it appears Drew Tate is OUT and I was already close to playing Northern Illinois...so on this news I now am...

Oklahoma @ Missouri
Troubled by the loss of DE Smith I dont see much to get excited about with Oklahoma. Just who have they beat? Colorado , Iowa State and Mid Tenn State recently at home. They were outplayed by UT in the Red River shootout. There claim to fame is the Oregon game and we all know AP isnt around. Missouri was impressive in winning @ TexTech then almost winning @ A&M. Chase Daniels has surpassed expectations and where is the blemish on Missouri?? Both played Colorado and cruised to wins...why shouldnt Missouri be -3 here? Like the Under but waiting after 47 was missed. Paul Thompson is going to have do better then a 100 yards passing here.

Play: Missouri ML -115 (3x)

INJURY GAME: play- Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x)

We know Iowa will be w/o QB Drew Tate . This is his 2nd missed start and the offense looked out of sync he 1st time @ Syracuse. Shonne Greene is also OUT for IOWA @ RB. Basically Iowa has been unimpressive outside of the whopping they put on Purdue. I really cant say UNI has been impresive at all but Horvath and Wolfe are veterans. Want to see how this line reacts. One would think it would have immediately been adjusted with the suprise announcement...so curious to say the least.

Virginia ML +105 (3x)

A couple weeks back I figured that when Maryland traveled to UVA the game should have been a PK or maybe -1.5. Well Maryland came back and won by 2. Last week Maryland jumped out to a 20-0 lead and NCST didnt play well on offense( number basically said both teams were equal). We have to remember Evans is a young , inexperienced QB getting his 1st road tests. UVA defense continues to fly under the radar and there weak link IMO is avoiding big pass plays. Otherwise its hard to grind yards out versus them. Wolfpack also didnt play well @ So Miss. I'll continue to ride the Sewell train here....

Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State (3x) 1st H over 27.5 -105 (1x)

High number but two defenses who havent really stopped anyone . Stanton should have a field day verus this defense and I would definetly expect a 35 pt day here. Indiana showed the ability to move the ball till they ran into Ohio State. Last year the total was 61.5 and Indiana has a better chance of putting points on the board at home IMO.

Notre Dame @ Navy

Really this is about the loss of the NAVY QB. The offense looked clueless versus RU once Brian Hampton was lost. Has the time off and pratice reps helped Enhada? Unless you can see the pratices you just dont know. I do think the ND defense has played fairly well recently as has Navys for the most part. So I am leaning heavy towards the UNDER here as its a neutral field(somewhat) I believe..waiting for 49 or better ...also thinking if ND drops they could be worth a play. After all there ATS losses could they be getting cheap? Well if the offense plays like it did 2 weeks ago for Navy that could be the case.

Northwestern @ Michigan

The Wildcat defense hasnt looked very good week after week watching teams top 30 points. That could be partially due to the fact the offense doesnt have many sustained drives and has alot of turnovers. With the SOPH at QB the Wildcats actually had an offense though it disappeared in crunch time. Was that a momentum shift , inexperience , lack of pratice reps....who knows. The Wolverine defense is stout...point will be tough but the Wildcats have managed to hang around for a half and then fade @ Penn State and @ Wisky. People who know Michigan alot better then I believe Carr will keep the offense very vanilla till Ohio State...which seems logical to me. Michigans offense hasnt been explosive lately even before manningham was lost...if we can keep Mich away from teh 38 ++ barrier this should be a cover....big IF though...

Scary that the Wildcats could still be thinking about the collapse but in away they have to be happy they actually ahd an offense and better days could be ahead.

1st half +19.5 -101 (1x) game +35 -120 (2x)

No opinion on Auburn @ Miss or Wisky versus Illini other then the obvious. Would have liked to play the Cincy under but debated and missed 42 now 37.5.

Under 48 -110 Purdue & Penn State (2x)

Neither offense has it together and Penn State shutdown Ohio State IMO. They allowed Minny to come back by letting them hang around. The Boilmakers played decent defense vs Wisky who is a much better offense then Penn State now. Still would rather play the Nittany Lions if I had to chose.

Vandy @ Duke bought +10 -120 (2x)

Duke is showing some improvement on defense lately when they arent giving short fields. Hard to back Duke but Vandy hasnt actually played well on offense especially in road games. Leaning hard to the points...fading a young QB as road chalk

Buffalo +36 -110 (3x)

While the past few weeks BC has impressed me especially on defense. This is clearly a good spot to rest up abit with Ryan ailing. There offense hasnt exactly clicked past few weeks and I am note sure they can score 42 points here. Before this week @ Ohio U these guys had some good showings at top tier schools. Its kind of odd that BC biggest spread was -11 this season and they just played Maine with lackluster results. Ryan and Gonzo banged up.

Temple +20 -105 (5x)& ML +840(1x)

Call me crazy but Temple offensively seems to be improving. At least to the point where in garbage time they will score. BG has put up 70 the past 2 years versus Temple but Omar Jacobs is gone and the team has struggled all year. Recently just struggling to beat EMU at home. Temple gave a decent effort versus Kent State and the over 53 is always attractive...

The 2 Pm starts:
Miami Ohio vs Ball State

Its clear that Ball State cannot stop opposing QB's and mike Kokal has improved past few weeks. The home squad also has the better defense. The Ball State QB's have lofty passing numbers but can they do it vs Miami?? They kept Hrovath to under 200 yards and both home games were narrow losses. Just to tight for me to call....

Over 55-105 BYU & Air Force (5x)

BYU has rolled AF the past 2 years putting up a 103 points in the process while Beck and Brown have enjoyed tremendous sucess. AF has played better defensively this year but I dont see how BYU who scored seemingly at will @ TCU will be held to under 35 points. AF should certainly score in the 20's versus an average defense.

Army +6 -104 (3x) and Over 50-05 (3x)

Basically no one can figure out Army but the fact Tulane is a favorite is fadeworthy in itself. Army looks good a few weeks then falls apart. Really both defenses leave alot to be desired. Tulane has allowed at least 24 points in every game but they can score.

Thinking Under 41 -113 Kent State and Ohio.

Kent State hasnt allowed more then 17 point ssince the opener but the offense has improved. Ohio U has played decent defense in road games @ Illinois , @ Northern Illinois,@ RU @ Missouri...

Colorado @ Kansas

Tough game. Kansas has lost 4 straight games they could have won including the last 3 the lead at half....hard to back them against a decent defense.

No interest in Kentucky @ Miss State Or FIU @ Bama...

Under 42 -112 Wake & UNC (3x)

Two struggling offenses versus solid defenses. Well UNC defense can be solid at times but there offense managed only 20 points once this year versus a 1A opponent...and that was garbage time. Wake struggled to move the ball most of the season needing good field positon to score. They scored 25 @ NCST but had three 50 yd ++ FGs and a saftey...

USC @ Oregon State

If I caught this early would have played the under since it opened at 50 but 45 is tough.

Miami +6 -110 (3x)

Really GT never plays well as a fav and struggled with UVA and Maryland at home. Miami will still play tough defense despite the late collapse @ Duke.

If I could figure out the Minnesota offense and if they could score 10-14 points here I would probably play the overespecially @ 48 .

Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Ok State (5x)

Over 57 -105 UCF and Houston (4x)

Well UCF has not been able to stop any QB's and enter Kolb. With the switch to Israel and Kenny Smith running the ball UCF still has an offense that can make noise...38-21?

Iowa State +5.5 -110(3x)

As bad as the cyclones look how is this line possible? Kansas State hasnt actually done much on offense to get excited about laying points. Lets see if they can exploit the Iowa State defense

Marshall should run Bradshaw right over Memphis but think -7 might be abit much...

Late starts

UCLA -114(3x)

Lets see Wash State traveling after a home upset.....recipe for disaster. The UCLA offense seems to be okay w/o Olsen and there defense has allowed just 33 points in 4 games at home. Wash State allowing 370 yards per last 3.

Thing ASU +1.....can Bonnell cut down the INT's?? Playing ASU ML jsut waiting......

Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x)

Texas coming off the hard fought win @ NEB will have another tough venue on there hand. I think Vince Young was teh main reason why TT had no chance verus UT. With him now gone I think we have competitive games again. The UT secondary still struggling.....

Despite the impressive ARK run it would be UL Monroe +36 or pass.

Baylor +5 -110 (5x)

its one weakness on defense versus another strength for both sides here. However Baylor has played good outside of the UT and Army games. TAMU has been in 5 of 6 games decided by 1 possession recently. They were +3 @ Ok State an luckily won and -1 @ KU and won late in the game. baylor just spotted KU a 20 pt lead and shut them down and won...think this number is way off...Oh and Baylorhas given TAMU hell the past 2 years they know they can win this game.

TCU -6 sounds like alot but 17-10 is win....just dont like Wyoming to score much here. They were +5 @ Cuse and lost by 6...

Thinking SC +5 w/o Coker to run the ball.

Under 71.5 -104 Hawaii (3x)

Thinking worst case we see 42-21 type game here. Hawaii exploded for 2 consecutive weeks away versus awful defenses. It didnt do much till the 4th Q at NMST. Idaho hasnt been able to consistently move the ball away and was shutout by Hawaii last year. Think its agame Hawaii has control but never gets up that big....


GL


Last minute thoughts....

- Somewhat concerned the Iowa line hasnt moved with Tate out but not buying any back at the moment. I really want to play the over 47. What scares me is no Tate and Wolfe's past2 games!
- happy to be on Buff with banged up Ryan and Gonzalez.
-Would like to take a shot with UNC here since I dont like the WF offense to be road chalk.
-Really like ND but hate road chalk and wanted to play the UND 48 but missed it now 47.
- think 37 is way to low for NCST/ UVA..over is calling
-Like FSU -3.5 but concerned that Fagg is out.
- Cuse and Natti how did I miss that 42 total?
-How in the hell has that dropped 5 points....Arrington OUT now as well , possibly?
- I am crazy but really like Illinois +21 or better...take out Cuse and RU and there defense has played well!! Thinking 27-10......
- Mich State and Indiana looks like we get the bst number on the total but big moves always unnerve me.
-I really wont be suprisd if Temple wins SU. However I am kicking myself for waiting on the total had 53.5 on my radar now 48.5!!!
- Probably a good spot to grab AF as 10 pt home dog after DD road chalk SU loss.
- Want to play Miami-Ohio but scared at -4 which makes -5 even tougher.
- Expecting a shootout down in Texas Tech or Lubbock.
- thought hard about Penn State but how can you lay with them after last week? its been a season long slump though. Happy that total came back down to 48 saw 49.5 and was oh shit!
- Minny looks like it might be w/o there TE and Ginn is banged up and could be limited. total looked attractive till these injuries...
- hoping SC creeps back up so I can fade Tenny
-thinking hard about Georgia @ +14.
- missed USC under 50.now 44.5
- passed on the OHIO U under now 40
- playing ASU ML at some point see -120.
- utah , Nevada , SJST , andMarshall look readyto roll.
-Now thinking hard about Miss State.
-thought about UCF but there dfense is?
-real like Toledo +5 and ML
- on Miami but over 37ish is attractive
-wanted under 40 Oklahoma now 45.5
- Colorado and Kansas seems like and under 42
-damn 55 Nebraska was over 51....
-hoping TCU gets cheaper so I can pounce.
- East carolina looks good+6
- not sure about Idaho and Hawaii
-maybe NT +10.5
-still thinking UL Monroe +36!

Team Totals

Under 39.5 BC -108 (1.5x)
Under 17 -110 Navy (1x)
Under 24.5-108 Wake (1.5x)
Under 35.5 -108 Bowl Green (2x)
Over 31 and Over 24 Mich State and Indiana -108 (1x each)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x)
Over 27.5 -116 tulane (1x)
Under 13.5 Eastern Mich -108 (1x)
Over 15.5 -108 Miami U (2x)
Over 20.5 -108 ECU (1x)