Looking at the schedule now...
Was real close to pulling the trigger on some batch of DePaul 1st H +4 , +8 -120 game and ML +280. Just couldnt decide and it tipped.....If by any chance they lose the 1st H depending on the scenario I may get involved with the Blue Demons 2nd H.
GL
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
My decision making has ben terrible of late. Today I decide maybe with such a big card just take it easy and basically take the day off...play just a handful.
So instead of playing in the NBA....uhm....Bulls & Under , Charlotte 1st Half , Miami , Under Pacers , Pistons, Minny , Memphis & Under , Houston... I rolled with just Dallas and Toronto late night! Thats quite a few winners there...
in NCAAB I didnt look so bad my only passing on Cincy and Under Richmond....instead playing WOfford, Bradley , Harvard and StJohn's later....
Naturally I was wise to pass on USF and Ball State...but you get the picture......
So instead of playing in the NBA....uhm....Bulls & Under , Charlotte 1st Half , Miami , Under Pacers , Pistons, Minny , Memphis & Under , Houston... I rolled with just Dallas and Toronto late night! Thats quite a few winners there...
in NCAAB I didnt look so bad my only passing on Cincy and Under Richmond....instead playing WOfford, Bradley , Harvard and StJohn's later....
Naturally I was wise to pass on USF and Ball State...but you get the picture......
CBB thoughts:
-Harvard seems to be in a good spot here. Sounds odd considering they have lost 4 straight. I do think they will be emphasizing playing 40 minutes of ball here. It sems in some recent games it has been a tale of two halves. Harvard has many offensive weapons where NE is limited to really two. Harvard is poor rebounding the ball but so is Northeastern. Just seems that with a long layoff and some rust possible this is a good spot ofr Harvard to keep the game close......
-Ball State another dog is a good spot? Finally a home game , finally a team it may be able to beat. If you look at the games there has been only 3 teams they have played they could beat IMO. Wisc-Milw which ended in an OT loss , Evansville which they lost by 1 and @ Ark State which they lost by 10. The tricky part about Ark St is with Ball States lack of offense it will be real tough to win at all in the road. Factor in Cal-SB travel and you may have a good spot....
-Memphis playing its first true road game. Cincy shocked the hell out of me with there play vs Xavier. I understand the rivalry aspect but Xavier I felt was to deep. Anyway with a week to think about I doubt Cincy shows up flat here and looks to build off there previous game..
-Bradley looks attractive cause I didnt expect anything higher then 7.5. Both FSU and Ohio State were closer then the finals suggest. As always game comes down to Butlers ability to hit three's. Clear contrast in styles should make it interesting....
- Wofford with its veteran guards now healthy and contributing is better then it showed @ Wisky and @ Arkansas. They played well vs Bama but not crazy about the quick turnaround but outside of a terrible Loyola Chi team who has Purdye blownout. Could they be looking ahead to there Vegas trip??
-Harvard seems to be in a good spot here. Sounds odd considering they have lost 4 straight. I do think they will be emphasizing playing 40 minutes of ball here. It sems in some recent games it has been a tale of two halves. Harvard has many offensive weapons where NE is limited to really two. Harvard is poor rebounding the ball but so is Northeastern. Just seems that with a long layoff and some rust possible this is a good spot ofr Harvard to keep the game close......
-Ball State another dog is a good spot? Finally a home game , finally a team it may be able to beat. If you look at the games there has been only 3 teams they have played they could beat IMO. Wisc-Milw which ended in an OT loss , Evansville which they lost by 1 and @ Ark State which they lost by 10. The tricky part about Ark St is with Ball States lack of offense it will be real tough to win at all in the road. Factor in Cal-SB travel and you may have a good spot....
-Memphis playing its first true road game. Cincy shocked the hell out of me with there play vs Xavier. I understand the rivalry aspect but Xavier I felt was to deep. Anyway with a week to think about I doubt Cincy shows up flat here and looks to build off there previous game..
-Bradley looks attractive cause I didnt expect anything higher then 7.5. Both FSU and Ohio State were closer then the finals suggest. As always game comes down to Butlers ability to hit three's. Clear contrast in styles should make it interesting....
- Wofford with its veteran guards now healthy and contributing is better then it showed @ Wisky and @ Arkansas. They played well vs Bama but not crazy about the quick turnaround but outside of a terrible Loyola Chi team who has Purdye blownout. Could they be looking ahead to there Vegas trip??
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
NBA:
Kings +5 :
They have played fairly well since Martin went down. NJ has been a terrible favorite at home droping the past 5 and last covering vs ATL 11/06 , is 5-14-1 L20 ATS , and may not have Vince Carter here cause he is a GameTime decision. Nachbar supposedly has missed pratice and will remain out but no confirmation on that. Kings are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on 2 days rest and despite being 1-10 SU on the road have covered 4 of 5 away. Most of there early struggles away were w/o Ron Artest and Salmons emergence during that time has made it easier with Martin absent and Brad Miller playing better.
NJ is shaking up the starting lineup with Willaims and Boone being inserted for Allen and Collins. Kristic quick return has failed, Nachbar probably there best bench player looks to miss again, Wright has been sluggish since returning from injury , and what else off the bench?? Updated: Marcus Williams is Probable and should make his 1st appearance of the season tonight. Who knows what to expect.
Until NJ gains some consistency why believe? NJ only 3-7 since returning from the West Coast.....
Leaning towards Over Chi and Under Tor.....
Kings +5 :
They have played fairly well since Martin went down. NJ has been a terrible favorite at home droping the past 5 and last covering vs ATL 11/06 , is 5-14-1 L20 ATS , and may not have Vince Carter here cause he is a GameTime decision. Nachbar supposedly has missed pratice and will remain out but no confirmation on that. Kings are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on 2 days rest and despite being 1-10 SU on the road have covered 4 of 5 away. Most of there early struggles away were w/o Ron Artest and Salmons emergence during that time has made it easier with Martin absent and Brad Miller playing better.
NJ is shaking up the starting lineup with Willaims and Boone being inserted for Allen and Collins. Kristic quick return has failed, Nachbar probably there best bench player looks to miss again, Wright has been sluggish since returning from injury , and what else off the bench?? Updated: Marcus Williams is Probable and should make his 1st appearance of the season tonight. Who knows what to expect.
Until NJ gains some consistency why believe? NJ only 3-7 since returning from the West Coast.....
Leaning towards Over Chi and Under Tor.....
NCAAB:
Marshall @ Louisville-
Tough to get a read on the Thundering Herd since they have played only a few quality opponents. They split with E. Tenn State ( a reach to call them quality) , lost @ Wright State by 7 , and beat Morehead State in what I deem as a bad spot for them after losing @ Austin Peay. Marshall takes alot of threes (often settling for threes), attempts alot of FTs and puts there opponents on the LINE often. They now have Cespedes running the point since his return from an ankle sprain. Which hopefully should increase offensive production.
Caracter is reinstated. Supposedly won't start though. I guess we can say that Louisville is still in disarray though. They have not been able to show consistency. You would think Caracter's suspension inspires him short term but thats an indivual thing.
With a new coach this game is clearly a measuring stick for Marshall. I believe Louisville opened the season ranked in the Top 10 but have now slide from the Top 25. Marshall has a few games under there belt so it should be interesting.
It appears to be Marshall should be able to score some here. The key number here is 59, if Marshall scores 59 + the 15pt line you would have to at least split the Over / Dog combo.
Right now I am more interested in over 132 .While Louisville has struggled alot of the fade value is being sucked out but Marshall's unknown skill level balances it out.
OVER 132
Elon @ Chatt :
No feel here. Elon has a 3-0 conference record. Chatt has played real well past 2 games vs Tenn and Charleston. With a 138 total I would lean Over cause Elon has managed to crack the 60's away versus some defensive minded squads like VTech , VCU and Georgia. Would lean Chatt just not sure what the line should be and if this is a flat spot for them.
So.Ill @ West Michigan -
So.ILL just seems to limited on offensive to control games on the road. There latest road loss was @ struggling ST.LOUIS!! It's basically the Shaw and Falker show. Mullins chips here and there but the bench had ZERO points @ STL!
Interesting to see if WMich responds here. They said they were fatigued and had the right to be. Then they allow Northwestern to shot 12/27 from three and lose by 2 at home. After another week off they play @ IUPUI and lose again. Now IUPUI is solid this season playing some quality teams real well. W.Mich can shoot the three. They have played well vs Oregon and defeated Davidson at home.
W.Michigan +3.5
Ohio State @ Clev State -
Huge game for Cleveland State who has already defeated FSU on a neutral floor , won @ USF and played fairly well @ George Mason. Ohio State is a team trying to find an identity. The Buckeyes managed to shock Syracuse but have not played that well vs UNC ( shorthanded) , @ Butler , and vs Texas A&M.
Interesting spot for the Buckeyes since they host Florida on Saturday. Gary Waters is emphasizing home court play (but this is at Cavs court)and feels Youngstown State was a step in the right direction.
Cleveland State +7
Kansas @ GaTech -
Seems odd that GT has not played since 12/5 @ Georgia State and this is there first home game since the opener versus Greensboro. You worry about a sluggish start here.
Kansas has Collins back and GT has Peacock back.
Since GT is down near the bottom in most defensive categories you would expect KU to be able to contine there run of breaking 80 points. While GT has struggled I see no reason why they can't keep this a game. What I do like is the Over 151....
Over 151
StBonnies @ Wright State-
Not sure what to make here. Simply cause I wonder what type effort Wright State puts forward after 4 consecutive tough home games and a buzzer beater vs Miami Ohio.
Charleston @ FSU -
Nothing concrete here. Seems like alot of points for Cremins and his Charleston squad. You wonder if the opening of ACC play makes this a lookahead spot.
Charleston +17 small
Charlotte @ Tulsa -
Charlotte is 1-3 off its home floor with even that being just a 1 pt win. Tulsa holds a great home court edge but has NOT played anyone yet and still has struggled.
FlaIntl @ Mid Tenn-
No opinion. Think yo have to fade Midd Tenn as chalk for now and possibly an over.
Pepperdine @ Little Rock-
Yo have to like Pepperdine's progress. The concern is the fact they always seem to be traveling. Ark-LR didnt look that impressive in the conference opener vs FIU and I think Pepperdine can compete ( at least for a half). With there pressing , up tempo style its hard to not like Pepperdine overs.
Pepperdine 1st Half LEAN
SE Missouri State @ Samford- Since Samford is favored I would expectthem to dictate pace and style. Therefore UND 131....
Murray State @ Jax State-
Conference home dog who has battled Murray State in the past. Think the points are attarctive with Murray State's inconsistency.
Montana State @ ASU-
You wonder how a team with 7 freshman and sophs in there rotation will respond after such a huge upset? Montana State is coming off a nice upset win @ Wyoming.
At times Montana State has struggled on the road but they have also battled Nevada and UNLV. ASU has smoked teams at home but mostly inferior competition. Small lean towards the points.....
Kentucky @ Houston-
I just dont see what Houston has done to date. Kentucky is desperate now after loing the past 3 games to UNC , Indiana and UAB. Leaning Kentucky +4 here..
New Orleans vs Southern Miss -
I dont much about So Miss so I think the line is high seeing how NO is playing. What I do expect is a competitive game leading to an over.
San Fran @ LBST -
Long Beach State is slowly showing improvement. While its odd to see them as a favorite what has SF done to impress?? have to lean LBST here...
Port State @ Washington-
The Huskies continue to struggle ve medicore competition. There ATS record is terrible with the backdoor cover vs Pitt at home. Port State is better then Portland and has already defeated Portland. They have played well @ Wash State as well, plus defeated Akron early...thought we would see -10 here.....+12 makes the dog attractive.....
Alcorn State @ LaTech-
Looking at the dog because LTech could be that challenged offensively.
Marshall @ Louisville-
Tough to get a read on the Thundering Herd since they have played only a few quality opponents. They split with E. Tenn State ( a reach to call them quality) , lost @ Wright State by 7 , and beat Morehead State in what I deem as a bad spot for them after losing @ Austin Peay. Marshall takes alot of threes (often settling for threes), attempts alot of FTs and puts there opponents on the LINE often. They now have Cespedes running the point since his return from an ankle sprain. Which hopefully should increase offensive production.
Caracter is reinstated. Supposedly won't start though. I guess we can say that Louisville is still in disarray though. They have not been able to show consistency. You would think Caracter's suspension inspires him short term but thats an indivual thing.
With a new coach this game is clearly a measuring stick for Marshall. I believe Louisville opened the season ranked in the Top 10 but have now slide from the Top 25. Marshall has a few games under there belt so it should be interesting.
It appears to be Marshall should be able to score some here. The key number here is 59, if Marshall scores 59 + the 15pt line you would have to at least split the Over / Dog combo.
Right now I am more interested in over 132 .While Louisville has struggled alot of the fade value is being sucked out but Marshall's unknown skill level balances it out.
OVER 132
Elon @ Chatt :
No feel here. Elon has a 3-0 conference record. Chatt has played real well past 2 games vs Tenn and Charleston. With a 138 total I would lean Over cause Elon has managed to crack the 60's away versus some defensive minded squads like VTech , VCU and Georgia. Would lean Chatt just not sure what the line should be and if this is a flat spot for them.
So.Ill @ West Michigan -
So.ILL just seems to limited on offensive to control games on the road. There latest road loss was @ struggling ST.LOUIS!! It's basically the Shaw and Falker show. Mullins chips here and there but the bench had ZERO points @ STL!
Interesting to see if WMich responds here. They said they were fatigued and had the right to be. Then they allow Northwestern to shot 12/27 from three and lose by 2 at home. After another week off they play @ IUPUI and lose again. Now IUPUI is solid this season playing some quality teams real well. W.Mich can shoot the three. They have played well vs Oregon and defeated Davidson at home.
W.Michigan +3.5
Ohio State @ Clev State -
Huge game for Cleveland State who has already defeated FSU on a neutral floor , won @ USF and played fairly well @ George Mason. Ohio State is a team trying to find an identity. The Buckeyes managed to shock Syracuse but have not played that well vs UNC ( shorthanded) , @ Butler , and vs Texas A&M.
Interesting spot for the Buckeyes since they host Florida on Saturday. Gary Waters is emphasizing home court play (but this is at Cavs court)and feels Youngstown State was a step in the right direction.
Cleveland State +7
Kansas @ GaTech -
Seems odd that GT has not played since 12/5 @ Georgia State and this is there first home game since the opener versus Greensboro. You worry about a sluggish start here.
Kansas has Collins back and GT has Peacock back.
Since GT is down near the bottom in most defensive categories you would expect KU to be able to contine there run of breaking 80 points. While GT has struggled I see no reason why they can't keep this a game. What I do like is the Over 151....
Over 151
StBonnies @ Wright State-
Not sure what to make here. Simply cause I wonder what type effort Wright State puts forward after 4 consecutive tough home games and a buzzer beater vs Miami Ohio.
Charleston @ FSU -
Nothing concrete here. Seems like alot of points for Cremins and his Charleston squad. You wonder if the opening of ACC play makes this a lookahead spot.
Charleston +17 small
Charlotte @ Tulsa -
Charlotte is 1-3 off its home floor with even that being just a 1 pt win. Tulsa holds a great home court edge but has NOT played anyone yet and still has struggled.
FlaIntl @ Mid Tenn-
No opinion. Think yo have to fade Midd Tenn as chalk for now and possibly an over.
Pepperdine @ Little Rock-
Yo have to like Pepperdine's progress. The concern is the fact they always seem to be traveling. Ark-LR didnt look that impressive in the conference opener vs FIU and I think Pepperdine can compete ( at least for a half). With there pressing , up tempo style its hard to not like Pepperdine overs.
Pepperdine 1st Half LEAN
SE Missouri State @ Samford- Since Samford is favored I would expectthem to dictate pace and style. Therefore UND 131....
Murray State @ Jax State-
Conference home dog who has battled Murray State in the past. Think the points are attarctive with Murray State's inconsistency.
Montana State @ ASU-
You wonder how a team with 7 freshman and sophs in there rotation will respond after such a huge upset? Montana State is coming off a nice upset win @ Wyoming.
At times Montana State has struggled on the road but they have also battled Nevada and UNLV. ASU has smoked teams at home but mostly inferior competition. Small lean towards the points.....
Kentucky @ Houston-
I just dont see what Houston has done to date. Kentucky is desperate now after loing the past 3 games to UNC , Indiana and UAB. Leaning Kentucky +4 here..
New Orleans vs Southern Miss -
I dont much about So Miss so I think the line is high seeing how NO is playing. What I do expect is a competitive game leading to an over.
San Fran @ LBST -
Long Beach State is slowly showing improvement. While its odd to see them as a favorite what has SF done to impress?? have to lean LBST here...
Port State @ Washington-
The Huskies continue to struggle ve medicore competition. There ATS record is terrible with the backdoor cover vs Pitt at home. Port State is better then Portland and has already defeated Portland. They have played well @ Wash State as well, plus defeated Akron early...thought we would see -10 here.....+12 makes the dog attractive.....
Alcorn State @ LaTech-
Looking at the dog because LTech could be that challenged offensively.
NFL:
Pitt travels to STL on Thursday :
Clearly the Steelers are in a tough spot. There slide in my opinion started in the MNF game vs Balt cause it was such a brutal , hard hitting game. The following week they had an improved Browns team looking for some payback for the opener. Pitt on short rest didnt play that well on defense on teh opening drive but corrected themselves as teh game progressed. There flaw was on special teams allowing 2 huge plays which basically led to 14 points and a turnover deep in there territory. Then they traveled to NY who they probably took to lightily but also were exhausted after two tough games. They lose in OT and further show they can be had on the road.Then a MNF game in disgusting weather and field conditions versus the worst team in the NFL , Miami. They kick a late FG and win 3-0. Next up a SNF game in rain vs Cincy where they started slow and adjusted to shutdown Cincy. Now in this period the defense played real well except for a few situations. Then they face NE which may have been there Super Bowl but did so w/o Polamalu. The had theer chances but couldnt make the big play and NE did twice vs the secondary. Then they had to battle Jax in brutal weather and again another rough , hard hitting game.
Now they have a short week after a brutal game. The 2nd H was probably the worst ball STL has played with Bulger and Jackson available. A close game at half was turned into a blowout thanks to sloppy play. The past 2 weeks should leave concern for Pitts defense. There offense is playing fairly well but the OL has struggled to protect Big Ben. Hagans and Kirschke could miss this game. Marvell Smith is OUT. Kirschke is already placing Aaron Smith.
With an ailing defense I would expect a close game. Which leads me to STL 1st H (again) and the Over .
Saturday...Dallas travels to Carolina.
Don't look now but Carolina has won 2 straight at home. They caught Seattle in a terrible spot flying cross country after clinching the division. The Panthers defense is solid but has been sabotaged by its awful offense, Matt Moore was able to move the ball some and the defense had a shutout for 3 quarters.
Again though Dallas is coming off a BATTLE with Philadelphia. They lost Roy Williams to suspension for the horse collar , Romo has some issues with his thumb on his throwing hand , Chris Canty left to injury , as did Gurode at Center and Special teamer Pat Watkins.
Since the GB game the Boys have looked terrible barely beating DET and now losing to Philly who really didnt do much that day. They did pressure Romo and he couldnt do anything besides hit Jason Witten.
While CAR looks real attractive my concern is Dallas jumping out to an early lead leaving CAR unable to recover. However we know DALLAS typically starts slow. The injury report is key here. You have to watch Thomas Davis and Julius Peppers for Car.
One would expect a low scoring game seeing how well Dallas defense played last week factored with Car needing a low scoring affair to compete. The Canty / Willaims issues make it less attractive though. Dallas has not performed well laying double digits especially in both road games @ Buffalo and @ Det.
Pitt travels to STL on Thursday :
Clearly the Steelers are in a tough spot. There slide in my opinion started in the MNF game vs Balt cause it was such a brutal , hard hitting game. The following week they had an improved Browns team looking for some payback for the opener. Pitt on short rest didnt play that well on defense on teh opening drive but corrected themselves as teh game progressed. There flaw was on special teams allowing 2 huge plays which basically led to 14 points and a turnover deep in there territory. Then they traveled to NY who they probably took to lightily but also were exhausted after two tough games. They lose in OT and further show they can be had on the road.Then a MNF game in disgusting weather and field conditions versus the worst team in the NFL , Miami. They kick a late FG and win 3-0. Next up a SNF game in rain vs Cincy where they started slow and adjusted to shutdown Cincy. Now in this period the defense played real well except for a few situations. Then they face NE which may have been there Super Bowl but did so w/o Polamalu. The had theer chances but couldnt make the big play and NE did twice vs the secondary. Then they had to battle Jax in brutal weather and again another rough , hard hitting game.
Now they have a short week after a brutal game. The 2nd H was probably the worst ball STL has played with Bulger and Jackson available. A close game at half was turned into a blowout thanks to sloppy play. The past 2 weeks should leave concern for Pitts defense. There offense is playing fairly well but the OL has struggled to protect Big Ben. Hagans and Kirschke could miss this game. Marvell Smith is OUT. Kirschke is already placing Aaron Smith.
With an ailing defense I would expect a close game. Which leads me to STL 1st H (again) and the Over .
Saturday...Dallas travels to Carolina.
Don't look now but Carolina has won 2 straight at home. They caught Seattle in a terrible spot flying cross country after clinching the division. The Panthers defense is solid but has been sabotaged by its awful offense, Matt Moore was able to move the ball some and the defense had a shutout for 3 quarters.
Again though Dallas is coming off a BATTLE with Philadelphia. They lost Roy Williams to suspension for the horse collar , Romo has some issues with his thumb on his throwing hand , Chris Canty left to injury , as did Gurode at Center and Special teamer Pat Watkins.
Since the GB game the Boys have looked terrible barely beating DET and now losing to Philly who really didnt do much that day. They did pressure Romo and he couldnt do anything besides hit Jason Witten.
While CAR looks real attractive my concern is Dallas jumping out to an early lead leaving CAR unable to recover. However we know DALLAS typically starts slow. The injury report is key here. You have to watch Thomas Davis and Julius Peppers for Car.
One would expect a low scoring game seeing how well Dallas defense played last week factored with Car needing a low scoring affair to compete. The Canty / Willaims issues make it less attractive though. Dallas has not performed well laying double digits especially in both road games @ Buffalo and @ Det.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Played:
Over 194 Cavs
Over 192 -120 Miami
Over 204 NYK
NYK +3 -120
Memphis +4.5
Orl +6 -120
Under 204 Orl
Spurs ML -130
Hornets -1
EWash +3.5 -120
Ind State +6 -120
Wofford +17 ( did NOT play the OVER cause my book didnt offer it)
Santa Clara -6
1st H
Zaga -14
Ill -12.5
Passed on Utah and Morehead decided to wait till HALFTIME.
Over 194 Cavs
Over 192 -120 Miami
Over 204 NYK
NYK +3 -120
Memphis +4.5
Orl +6 -120
Under 204 Orl
Spurs ML -130
Hornets -1
EWash +3.5 -120
Ind State +6 -120
Wofford +17 ( did NOT play the OVER cause my book didnt offer it)
Santa Clara -6
1st H
Zaga -14
Ill -12.5
Passed on Utah and Morehead decided to wait till HALFTIME.
NCAAB Monday :
Tenn-Martin @ Morehead State:
Contrasting styles to say the least. One thing that makes it difficult to get a feel for this game is my belief that (low to)mid majors that can score the ball will play better against tougher road competition. Where as defensive , ball control squads will struggle due to the fact there defensive prowess will be somewhat negated by the better athletes they are facing . As well as there offensive weapons facing tougher defenders and schemes. Not to mention there offensive weapons usually consisting of two players who if shut them down then you basically shut out the whole offense.
So basically I dont think Morehead can travel well with limited scoring where as Tenn Martin can be somewhat competitive in tough enviroments such as Miss State and Memphis.
You look at Morehead's schedule and have to feel they will be overmatched here. The key factor is that this is conference play. For some reason they play Austin Peay real well and I think they were deflated heading into Murray State . Now both teams lost alot from last year but Juco transfer Lester Hudson has been a scoring machine and freshman Weddle has played very well early. Not sure about the status of Gerald Robinson because he didnt play last game.
I have to weigh that Tenn Martin did lose at home to Central Ark and slipped by Maine on a neutral court. One thing that stood out is the fact that Tenn Martin didnt shot very well in a few games but had a nice edge in FT's shot. They snuck my SPC but had 18 more FT attempts , they shot only 37 % @ Ark State, they shot 15 more FTs vs Jax State and only 5 of 22 from three , less then 40% at home vs Central Ark.
Possible attractive home dog ?? However upon 1st glance I though Martin was the play. Not sure what instinct to trust...interested in seeing who dictates tempo though...
Eastern Ill @ EKU :
Two struggling offenses.....Eastern Illinois has played somewhat worse then expected versus a tough schedule for Eastern Kentucky. I have no idea what to make of this matchup cause I have faded E.Ill a few times early. However I dont see why the +10 isnt attractive here?? You have a conference matchup where the DOG has two legit scorers and plays a team who struggles on offensive settling in the high 50's , low 60's.....
To me a pivotal number is 53 for EILL, if they get 53 you would worst case split the Over and the side...
Wofford @ Bama :
Bama doesnt play much defense but Wofford has struggled vs good defenses @ Wisky and ARK (44pts avg). So you would hope they crack the 50s here as you would hope SEC players could defend this Wofford squad better then the rest of there early schedule. With Wofford they have had some injuries with guards Gibson and Nichols now back providing big boosts.
Being that Bama hasnt played much defense and Wofford is in a work in progress getting healthier I would say 17.5 points is looking REAL attractive as is the Over 134 cause I would think Wofford can can get 60+ here now that they are healthy......
Ind State @ Tulane :
Ind State is a team in transition looking for offense. They have Martin starting now along with Moore, Marshall the former walk on and Stinson. Tulane has lost two games they were favored in to a tough New Orleans squad and @ Buffalo. Take away the opening win vs Auburn and what has Tulane done?? They did just beat Gardner Webb of the Kentucky UPSET fame .That Webb team just started HOT and has quickly faded IMO..
Same thing with Ind State when it face Miami Ohio recently. You cant take much from that game cause I think they were flat after letting the Purdue game slip away. I think it is telling they played @ North Texas catching only 5 points and lost by 9. Thats telling to me since NTexas is a solid squad. Not to mention the solid effort @ Purdue.
Think Ind State makes this a game and scores 60+ so that would make the over attractive......
Western Carolina @ Illinois :
While it might be tough to lay 23 points with Illinois look at the Weber State game as an indicator of what it can do at home vs inferior competition. They did allow Weber to "win" the 2nd H and cover but Weber is better then WCU IMO( 25 pt lead at Half). However we can think that Illinois is taking them lightily after losing by 48 @ Indiana. Illinois doesn't have that type of offense though to hang a 100 but has been somewhat suprising at times.
For WCU this has been tough to overcome.....Aldridge, who was averaging 18.8 points a game, left the team for personal reasons prior to the loss to Elon. Giles numbers are skewed by the 32 he dropped vs Charleston as he dropped ZERO @ Indiana. Michael Porrini has taken over the mantle as top scorer for the Catamounts, and he's just a freshman. Porrini isn't a great shooter and he also leads Western Carolina in assists, but he knows how to put the ball in the basket. So WCU is a young inexperienced team playimg a tough enviroment(AGAIN).
I expect WCU in the low 50 here and I think Illinois at home will get 75. So it will be close..... the UNDER @ 138 seems interesting.....78-53..??
North Colorado @ Zaga :
You get the feeling its all about how many Zaga wants to win by. NCU could be w/o Taibi again. If So I wouldnt expect more then mid 50s here for them. See no reason why Zaga doesnt a pproach 80 points here....though the total at 133 was low but now 136/137 seems correct since you would expect mid 130s in this game....
Montana @ Santa Clara
The last time out Santa Clara dropped a home game to Pacific and Montana just lost in OT @ Pacific.
"Montana led most of the second half, but Michael Kirby made two free throws to put Pacific ahead 61-60 with one minute remaining in regulation."
Now Santa Clara seems to be in a bounce back spot here. When Pacifc traveled to there house they were OFF a horrible home loss to Pepperdine and it was a beatdown. So the fact they stepped it up @ SC was not a suprise especially with the line being inflated a couple of points. Now you have Montana rolling in after letting one slip away @ Pacific before falling in OT. Seems to me that very often teams just come out flat when they have an upset slip through there fingers late.
With little time to rebound this should be a flat spot for Montana....and the game seems fairly priced to me at -6.5....Another total thats very tight as the road squad should be in the mid 50s....but lean under cause I dont see more then 70 from the Broncos.....68-57
Portland @ EWU :
In Portland we could very well have another YOUNG team in a bad spot. They pulled off an upset @ Montana with a late 3 ball . Then they gave Washington everything it could handle before falling late. So do they come out flat here?? I would expect them after two great performances and the one that got away lingering in there mind.
East Wash played one heck of a tough schedule early on and few home games. They beat Riverside early and lost by 9 to Santa Clara. I have a hard time laying 3 points with Portland in this spot and think this is a dangerous home dog cause of so many unknowns floating around.
You would expect this game to be played in the mid 50's . However the longer it remains close the better chance we have of seeing this slip into the 60's. So slight lean to UND 124.......61-59
My thoughts so far.......BOL
Tenn-Martin @ Morehead State:
Contrasting styles to say the least. One thing that makes it difficult to get a feel for this game is my belief that (low to)mid majors that can score the ball will play better against tougher road competition. Where as defensive , ball control squads will struggle due to the fact there defensive prowess will be somewhat negated by the better athletes they are facing . As well as there offensive weapons facing tougher defenders and schemes. Not to mention there offensive weapons usually consisting of two players who if shut them down then you basically shut out the whole offense.
So basically I dont think Morehead can travel well with limited scoring where as Tenn Martin can be somewhat competitive in tough enviroments such as Miss State and Memphis.
You look at Morehead's schedule and have to feel they will be overmatched here. The key factor is that this is conference play. For some reason they play Austin Peay real well and I think they were deflated heading into Murray State . Now both teams lost alot from last year but Juco transfer Lester Hudson has been a scoring machine and freshman Weddle has played very well early. Not sure about the status of Gerald Robinson because he didnt play last game.
I have to weigh that Tenn Martin did lose at home to Central Ark and slipped by Maine on a neutral court. One thing that stood out is the fact that Tenn Martin didnt shot very well in a few games but had a nice edge in FT's shot. They snuck my SPC but had 18 more FT attempts , they shot only 37 % @ Ark State, they shot 15 more FTs vs Jax State and only 5 of 22 from three , less then 40% at home vs Central Ark.
Possible attractive home dog ?? However upon 1st glance I though Martin was the play. Not sure what instinct to trust...interested in seeing who dictates tempo though...
Eastern Ill @ EKU :
Two struggling offenses.....Eastern Illinois has played somewhat worse then expected versus a tough schedule for Eastern Kentucky. I have no idea what to make of this matchup cause I have faded E.Ill a few times early. However I dont see why the +10 isnt attractive here?? You have a conference matchup where the DOG has two legit scorers and plays a team who struggles on offensive settling in the high 50's , low 60's.....
To me a pivotal number is 53 for EILL, if they get 53 you would worst case split the Over and the side...
Wofford @ Bama :
Bama doesnt play much defense but Wofford has struggled vs good defenses @ Wisky and ARK (44pts avg). So you would hope they crack the 50s here as you would hope SEC players could defend this Wofford squad better then the rest of there early schedule. With Wofford they have had some injuries with guards Gibson and Nichols now back providing big boosts.
Being that Bama hasnt played much defense and Wofford is in a work in progress getting healthier I would say 17.5 points is looking REAL attractive as is the Over 134 cause I would think Wofford can can get 60+ here now that they are healthy......
Ind State @ Tulane :
Ind State is a team in transition looking for offense. They have Martin starting now along with Moore, Marshall the former walk on and Stinson. Tulane has lost two games they were favored in to a tough New Orleans squad and @ Buffalo. Take away the opening win vs Auburn and what has Tulane done?? They did just beat Gardner Webb of the Kentucky UPSET fame .That Webb team just started HOT and has quickly faded IMO..
Same thing with Ind State when it face Miami Ohio recently. You cant take much from that game cause I think they were flat after letting the Purdue game slip away. I think it is telling they played @ North Texas catching only 5 points and lost by 9. Thats telling to me since NTexas is a solid squad. Not to mention the solid effort @ Purdue.
Think Ind State makes this a game and scores 60+ so that would make the over attractive......
Western Carolina @ Illinois :
While it might be tough to lay 23 points with Illinois look at the Weber State game as an indicator of what it can do at home vs inferior competition. They did allow Weber to "win" the 2nd H and cover but Weber is better then WCU IMO( 25 pt lead at Half). However we can think that Illinois is taking them lightily after losing by 48 @ Indiana. Illinois doesn't have that type of offense though to hang a 100 but has been somewhat suprising at times.
For WCU this has been tough to overcome.....Aldridge, who was averaging 18.8 points a game, left the team for personal reasons prior to the loss to Elon. Giles numbers are skewed by the 32 he dropped vs Charleston as he dropped ZERO @ Indiana. Michael Porrini has taken over the mantle as top scorer for the Catamounts, and he's just a freshman. Porrini isn't a great shooter and he also leads Western Carolina in assists, but he knows how to put the ball in the basket. So WCU is a young inexperienced team playimg a tough enviroment(AGAIN).
I expect WCU in the low 50 here and I think Illinois at home will get 75. So it will be close..... the UNDER @ 138 seems interesting.....78-53..??
North Colorado @ Zaga :
You get the feeling its all about how many Zaga wants to win by. NCU could be w/o Taibi again. If So I wouldnt expect more then mid 50s here for them. See no reason why Zaga doesnt a pproach 80 points here....though the total at 133 was low but now 136/137 seems correct since you would expect mid 130s in this game....
Montana @ Santa Clara
The last time out Santa Clara dropped a home game to Pacific and Montana just lost in OT @ Pacific.
"Montana led most of the second half, but Michael Kirby made two free throws to put Pacific ahead 61-60 with one minute remaining in regulation."
Now Santa Clara seems to be in a bounce back spot here. When Pacifc traveled to there house they were OFF a horrible home loss to Pepperdine and it was a beatdown. So the fact they stepped it up @ SC was not a suprise especially with the line being inflated a couple of points. Now you have Montana rolling in after letting one slip away @ Pacific before falling in OT. Seems to me that very often teams just come out flat when they have an upset slip through there fingers late.
With little time to rebound this should be a flat spot for Montana....and the game seems fairly priced to me at -6.5....Another total thats very tight as the road squad should be in the mid 50s....but lean under cause I dont see more then 70 from the Broncos.....68-57
Portland @ EWU :
In Portland we could very well have another YOUNG team in a bad spot. They pulled off an upset @ Montana with a late 3 ball . Then they gave Washington everything it could handle before falling late. So do they come out flat here?? I would expect them after two great performances and the one that got away lingering in there mind.
East Wash played one heck of a tough schedule early on and few home games. They beat Riverside early and lost by 9 to Santa Clara. I have a hard time laying 3 points with Portland in this spot and think this is a dangerous home dog cause of so many unknowns floating around.
You would expect this game to be played in the mid 50's . However the longer it remains close the better chance we have of seeing this slip into the 60's. So slight lean to UND 124.......61-59
My thoughts so far.......BOL
NBA Monday :
Utah travels to Hotlanta :
-Utah was playing some terrible ball until the perfect opponent waltzed into town. The Seattle SuperSonics who were playing there fourth road game in 5 days !!! The Sonics started fast and faded playing terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. My point is that we shouldnt think Utah is back to its earlier play cause all they did was beat a tired team and not as impressively as the final states. Okur should be OUT still while Harpring should be available( Nope he is OUT). For Atl they have Law listed as questionable and Childress as doubtful.
-Could this again be the perfect opponent to regain momentum? What I mean is Utah is only 9-0 SU and ATS last 9 meetings vs ATL. They were favored in all and have gone 4-0 in ATL with the last loss in the series being 10/31/02 in ATL! Injuries have left the Hawks shorthanded at Guard . Anthony Johnson is starting at the Point and with Lue , Claxton , Stoudamire and now Law hurt they have only Mario West off the bench. In the past 2 meetings @ ATL the score at halftime was decided by 1 pt.
-Looking at recent meetings Okur's loss might be felt here with some good games @ ATL in the past. Also look out for Pachiula who has played well in the past vs Utah.
- Expect a lot of FTs in the contest which should lead to some ezee points in regard to the total ...
Thinking the best option is wait till HALF. Utah 4 straight Unders and ATL 8-2 UNDER past 10.
Milw travels to Cle :
Outside of defeating LOWLY LAC the only road win for MILW is @ Cle. Which is suprising since the Cavs had won 8 of 9 in the series. Since defeating Bos the Cavs are 1-8 SU due largely to LBJ's absecnce...
If Daniel Gibson plays here I think the Over is worth a play. He keeps the Cavs offense moving and Milw defense has suffered on the road. Cavs should crack 100 then its just a matter of how Milw plays....
Minny @ Miami :
Well Miami could NOT dispose of Indiana when it was theer 4th game in 5 days. Now they catch Minny playing there 5th in 7 days. Which is probably why you get the jacked up lines. However I dont think thes line is to big its just a matter of whats wrong with Miami. Minny has droughts on the road where games get out of hand.
Obviously the Heat are struggling but Minnesota is not of the quality of Indiana OR Washington so a great spot to Wake the Fuck up for them. Miami's defense has really been subpar of late and Wolves always seem to be i the low 90s anyway...so a LEAN towards the over....
Indy @ NYK:
O'Neal status is of interest. Marbury should play.
Not sure Indy deserves road chalk status they have alternated wins and losses of late. Indy always wants to play fast and it seems NY will get sucked into that by opponents.....over ??
GSW @ Memphis :
Pau Gasol is doubtful. Memphis is coming off a nice upset win @ Orl minus Lewis. GSW has lost 3 straight away and struggles in B2B situations. The Warriors did rest most of there starters in the 2nd H.
With GS struugling in my opinion and Memphis maybe looking to show something with gasol injured the Doggie looks inviting. My biggest concern is that Memphis is off an upset SU win as 13 pt dogs.....
As fast as this game may be played I cannot take an over 226 with a key offensive player out and GSW playing on another coast!
Orlando travels to Dallas :
The Mavs are improving of late but this seems like a big number. Orl is slumping going 1-4 since the West Coast trip and off a SU loss as DD favs. rashard Lewis should return here. Dallas seems to be playing defense again with 4 straight under 190 and ORL should emphasize defense after there last performance.
Suns travel to San Antonio :
Parker listed as doubtful. Duncan played 20 minutes the other night. The Spurs showed how tough they were at home when they defeated Suns and jazz last week w/o TD. Now they have him back and face a slumping SUns team losers of 3 of 4.Obviously we have PHO looking for revenge after the Nash incident last year which seemed to lead to there demise. Spurs showed they could score shorthanded and Suns will lokk to push the tempo....Spurs/Over
New orl @ Portland:
Really hoped Port would be favored but still like the Hornets. The Blazers are HOT but a tough spot playing 5th in 7 days winning the previous 4 versus tough competition. Hornets lost by 3 in the last meeting @ Portland.
Tough spot after DENVER. Roy played 40 tough minutes and Frye started off hitting everything.
185 seems crazy low since Portland said it would be faster and has. It's so low I have to pass cause its curious....
Utah travels to Hotlanta :
-Utah was playing some terrible ball until the perfect opponent waltzed into town. The Seattle SuperSonics who were playing there fourth road game in 5 days !!! The Sonics started fast and faded playing terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. My point is that we shouldnt think Utah is back to its earlier play cause all they did was beat a tired team and not as impressively as the final states. Okur should be OUT still while Harpring should be available( Nope he is OUT). For Atl they have Law listed as questionable and Childress as doubtful.
-Could this again be the perfect opponent to regain momentum? What I mean is Utah is only 9-0 SU and ATS last 9 meetings vs ATL. They were favored in all and have gone 4-0 in ATL with the last loss in the series being 10/31/02 in ATL! Injuries have left the Hawks shorthanded at Guard . Anthony Johnson is starting at the Point and with Lue , Claxton , Stoudamire and now Law hurt they have only Mario West off the bench. In the past 2 meetings @ ATL the score at halftime was decided by 1 pt.
-Looking at recent meetings Okur's loss might be felt here with some good games @ ATL in the past. Also look out for Pachiula who has played well in the past vs Utah.
- Expect a lot of FTs in the contest which should lead to some ezee points in regard to the total ...
Thinking the best option is wait till HALF. Utah 4 straight Unders and ATL 8-2 UNDER past 10.
Milw travels to Cle :
Outside of defeating LOWLY LAC the only road win for MILW is @ Cle. Which is suprising since the Cavs had won 8 of 9 in the series. Since defeating Bos the Cavs are 1-8 SU due largely to LBJ's absecnce...
If Daniel Gibson plays here I think the Over is worth a play. He keeps the Cavs offense moving and Milw defense has suffered on the road. Cavs should crack 100 then its just a matter of how Milw plays....
Minny @ Miami :
Well Miami could NOT dispose of Indiana when it was theer 4th game in 5 days. Now they catch Minny playing there 5th in 7 days. Which is probably why you get the jacked up lines. However I dont think thes line is to big its just a matter of whats wrong with Miami. Minny has droughts on the road where games get out of hand.
Obviously the Heat are struggling but Minnesota is not of the quality of Indiana OR Washington so a great spot to Wake the Fuck up for them. Miami's defense has really been subpar of late and Wolves always seem to be i the low 90s anyway...so a LEAN towards the over....
Indy @ NYK:
O'Neal status is of interest. Marbury should play.
Not sure Indy deserves road chalk status they have alternated wins and losses of late. Indy always wants to play fast and it seems NY will get sucked into that by opponents.....over ??
GSW @ Memphis :
Pau Gasol is doubtful. Memphis is coming off a nice upset win @ Orl minus Lewis. GSW has lost 3 straight away and struggles in B2B situations. The Warriors did rest most of there starters in the 2nd H.
With GS struugling in my opinion and Memphis maybe looking to show something with gasol injured the Doggie looks inviting. My biggest concern is that Memphis is off an upset SU win as 13 pt dogs.....
As fast as this game may be played I cannot take an over 226 with a key offensive player out and GSW playing on another coast!
Orlando travels to Dallas :
The Mavs are improving of late but this seems like a big number. Orl is slumping going 1-4 since the West Coast trip and off a SU loss as DD favs. rashard Lewis should return here. Dallas seems to be playing defense again with 4 straight under 190 and ORL should emphasize defense after there last performance.
Suns travel to San Antonio :
Parker listed as doubtful. Duncan played 20 minutes the other night. The Spurs showed how tough they were at home when they defeated Suns and jazz last week w/o TD. Now they have him back and face a slumping SUns team losers of 3 of 4.Obviously we have PHO looking for revenge after the Nash incident last year which seemed to lead to there demise. Spurs showed they could score shorthanded and Suns will lokk to push the tempo....Spurs/Over
New orl @ Portland:
Really hoped Port would be favored but still like the Hornets. The Blazers are HOT but a tough spot playing 5th in 7 days winning the previous 4 versus tough competition. Hornets lost by 3 in the last meeting @ Portland.
Tough spot after DENVER. Roy played 40 tough minutes and Frye started off hitting everything.
185 seems crazy low since Portland said it would be faster and has. It's so low I have to pass cause its curious....
Saturday, December 15, 2007
NFL::
With each game it just gets harder and harder to decipher. The injury reports and players lost to injury have reached ridiculous levels IMO.
Balt @ Miami :
- We know Miami is still winless and that should keep them motivated. They are having the 72 Phins in attendance and there may be some cermony for theer 35th anniversary. Not sure but they will be attendance...is this extra motivation ? Truth is who knows these days. I would think some guys would want to shinein front of the veterans but you have Joey Porter say things why would I care I wasnt even born in 72....
- While Miami is decimated by injuries the Ravens are not far behind. The defense should be w/o both starting CBs in Rolle and McAllsiter. Alot of garbage is out there about the Ravens past 2 games. However I hardly read how Balt played last week w/o both it starting CB's. That is pretty signifcant to me when your now looking at your 3,4,5 corners as your starters...Also Ngata was hurt early last week but did return. I doubt he is near 100% , Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs were both listed as questionable but expected to play. Lewis with back issues and Suggs with the FLU. Heap is still out and so is Wilcox probably( Sypnieski starts?). At WR Clayton left the team for personal reasons midweek and I am unsure of his status. Demetirus Williams has been out a few weeks giving Devard Darling some chances.
- Both teams have terrible ATS trends in this matchup but as bad as Miami's are the Ravens could be worse. The Ravens have looked terrible on the road and sport only a 9-7 win @ SF but the ast two away games @ SD and @ Pitt were disgusting!! On the flip though Miami has been awful its past 2 games as well. My belief is though you cant expect them to win on the road at this point.
- Miami's defense is poor but the 1st 31 points allowed last week came on drives that consisted of 161 yds( 1 fumble return for a TD. Lets see what this weather brings and Lemon seems to move the offense much better at this point...
(Lean Miami +3.5 depending on weather Over 37)
With each game it just gets harder and harder to decipher. The injury reports and players lost to injury have reached ridiculous levels IMO.
Balt @ Miami :
- We know Miami is still winless and that should keep them motivated. They are having the 72 Phins in attendance and there may be some cermony for theer 35th anniversary. Not sure but they will be attendance...is this extra motivation ? Truth is who knows these days. I would think some guys would want to shinein front of the veterans but you have Joey Porter say things why would I care I wasnt even born in 72....
- While Miami is decimated by injuries the Ravens are not far behind. The defense should be w/o both starting CBs in Rolle and McAllsiter. Alot of garbage is out there about the Ravens past 2 games. However I hardly read how Balt played last week w/o both it starting CB's. That is pretty signifcant to me when your now looking at your 3,4,5 corners as your starters...Also Ngata was hurt early last week but did return. I doubt he is near 100% , Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs were both listed as questionable but expected to play. Lewis with back issues and Suggs with the FLU. Heap is still out and so is Wilcox probably( Sypnieski starts?). At WR Clayton left the team for personal reasons midweek and I am unsure of his status. Demetirus Williams has been out a few weeks giving Devard Darling some chances.
- Both teams have terrible ATS trends in this matchup but as bad as Miami's are the Ravens could be worse. The Ravens have looked terrible on the road and sport only a 9-7 win @ SF but the ast two away games @ SD and @ Pitt were disgusting!! On the flip though Miami has been awful its past 2 games as well. My belief is though you cant expect them to win on the road at this point.
- Miami's defense is poor but the 1st 31 points allowed last week came on drives that consisted of 161 yds( 1 fumble return for a TD. Lets see what this weather brings and Lemon seems to move the offense much better at this point...
(Lean Miami +3.5 depending on weather Over 37)
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Thursday NBA
Spurs @ LAL - There gonna delay the line till they feel like Duncan is again announced OUT. Believe his return date was pushed back to Saturday but books want to be cautious with a player wgo is worth 5 or 6 pointsin a spread.
Would guess this game opens -5 or -5.5. They were small dog @ GSW and were never in that game after winning two games ta home. I really look @ SA and think what an average team w/o TD. Especially if Parker is playing less then 100%(19 for 50 past 3 ). Anyway LAL beat GSW by DDs as 3 pt favs recently.....anything less then -5 would be to low IMO....higher then 6.5 would probably be to high
Wash @ Miami : Never do I enjoy playing teams returning from West Coast swings. Thye did have 2 days rest after the long trip and ay have some momentum after finishing uo with 2 wins. I thought we would see a high 190s total and lean Under 204.
Even though Wash is uptempo they are missing a key cog in the engine and teams have slowly adjusted to that making other players beat them. Not sure I believe in Miami just yet and like how Wash is playing....
No thoughts on CBB yet...
Spurs @ LAL - There gonna delay the line till they feel like Duncan is again announced OUT. Believe his return date was pushed back to Saturday but books want to be cautious with a player wgo is worth 5 or 6 pointsin a spread.
Would guess this game opens -5 or -5.5. They were small dog @ GSW and were never in that game after winning two games ta home. I really look @ SA and think what an average team w/o TD. Especially if Parker is playing less then 100%(19 for 50 past 3 ). Anyway LAL beat GSW by DDs as 3 pt favs recently.....anything less then -5 would be to low IMO....higher then 6.5 would probably be to high
Wash @ Miami : Never do I enjoy playing teams returning from West Coast swings. Thye did have 2 days rest after the long trip and ay have some momentum after finishing uo with 2 wins. I thought we would see a high 190s total and lean Under 204.
Even though Wash is uptempo they are missing a key cog in the engine and teams have slowly adjusted to that making other players beat them. Not sure I believe in Miami just yet and like how Wash is playing....
No thoughts on CBB yet...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
NCAAB Updated Thoughts :
Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier
Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...
Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139
Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....
Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5
BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155
Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....
Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6
Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133
Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL
Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier
Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...
Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139
Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....
Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5
BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155
Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....
Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6
Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133
Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL
Wed NBA:
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Thursday NFL Action :
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
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