Trading Sports

2007-12-20T17:36:00.000-05:00

Looking at the schedule now...

Was real close to pulling the trigger on some batch of DePaul 1st H +4 , +8 -120 game and ML +280. Just couldnt decide and it tipped.....If by any chance they lose the 1st H depending on the scenario I may get involved with the Blue Demons 2nd H.

GL

2007-12-19T21:34:00.000-05:00

My decision making has ben terrible of late. Today I decide maybe with such a big card just take it easy and basically take the day off...play just a handful.

So instead of playing in the NBA....uhm....Bulls & Under , Charlotte 1st Half , Miami , Under Pacers , Pistons, Minny , Memphis & Under , Houston... I rolled with just Dallas and Toronto late night! Thats quite a few winners there...

in NCAAB I didnt look so bad my only passing on Cincy and Under Richmond....instead playing WOfford, Bradley , Harvard and StJohn's later....

Naturally I was wise to pass on USF and Ball State...but you get the picture......

2007-12-19T01:46:00.000-05:00

CBB thoughts:

-Harvard seems to be in a good spot here. Sounds odd considering they have lost 4 straight. I do think they will be emphasizing playing 40 minutes of ball here. It sems in some recent games it has been a tale of two halves. Harvard has many offensive weapons where NE is limited to really two. Harvard is poor rebounding the ball but so is Northeastern. Just seems that with a long layoff and some rust possible this is a good spot ofr Harvard to keep the game close......

-Ball State another dog is a good spot? Finally a home game , finally a team it may be able to beat. If you look at the games there has been only 3 teams they have played they could beat IMO. Wisc-Milw which ended in an OT loss , Evansville which they lost by 1 and @ Ark State which they lost by 10. The tricky part about Ark St is with Ball States lack of offense it will be real tough to win at all in the road. Factor in Cal-SB travel and you may have a good spot....

-Memphis playing its first true road game. Cincy shocked the hell out of me with there play vs Xavier. I understand the rivalry aspect but Xavier I felt was to deep. Anyway with a week to think about I doubt Cincy shows up flat here and looks to build off there previous game..

-Bradley looks attractive cause I didnt expect anything higher then 7.5. Both FSU and Ohio State were closer then the finals suggest. As always game comes down to Butlers ability to hit three's. Clear contrast in styles should make it interesting....

- Wofford with its veteran guards now healthy and contributing is better then it showed @ Wisky and @ Arkansas. They played well vs Bama but not crazy about the quick turnaround but outside of a terrible Loyola Chi team who has Purdye blownout. Could they be looking ahead to there Vegas trip??

2007-12-18T15:07:00.000-05:00

NBA:

Kings +5 :

They have played fairly well since Martin went down. NJ has been a terrible favorite at home droping the past 5 and last covering vs ATL 11/06 , is 5-14-1 L20 ATS , and may not have Vince Carter here cause he is a GameTime decision. Nachbar supposedly has missed pratice and will remain out but no confirmation on that. Kings are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on 2 days rest and despite being 1-10 SU on the road have covered 4 of 5 away. Most of there early struggles away were w/o Ron Artest and Salmons emergence during that time has made it easier with Martin absent and Brad Miller playing better.

NJ is shaking up the starting lineup with Willaims and Boone being inserted for Allen and Collins. Kristic quick return has failed, Nachbar probably there best bench player looks to miss again, Wright has been sluggish since returning from injury , and what else off the bench?? Updated: Marcus Williams is Probable and should make his 1st appearance of the season tonight. Who knows what to expect.

Until NJ gains some consistency why believe? NJ only 3-7 since returning from the West Coast.....

Leaning towards Over Chi and Under Tor.....

2007-12-18T12:36:00.000-05:00

NCAAB:

Marshall @ Louisville-

Tough to get a read on the Thundering Herd since they have played only a few quality opponents. They split with E. Tenn State ( a reach to call them quality) , lost @ Wright State by 7 , and beat Morehead State in what I deem as a bad spot for them after losing @ Austin Peay. Marshall takes alot of threes (often settling for threes), attempts alot of FTs and puts there opponents on the LINE often. They now have Cespedes running the point since his return from an ankle sprain. Which hopefully should increase offensive production.

Caracter is reinstated. Supposedly won't start though. I guess we can say that Louisville is still in disarray though. They have not been able to show consistency. You would think Caracter's suspension inspires him short term but thats an indivual thing.

With a new coach this game is clearly a measuring stick for Marshall. I believe Louisville opened the season ranked in the Top 10 but have now slide from the Top 25. Marshall has a few games under there belt so it should be interesting.

It appears to be Marshall should be able to score some here. The key number here is 59, if Marshall scores 59 + the 15pt line you would have to at least split the Over / Dog combo.

Right now I am more interested in over 132 .While Louisville has struggled alot of the fade value is being sucked out but Marshall's unknown skill level balances it out.

OVER 132

Elon @ Chatt :

No feel here. Elon has a 3-0 conference record. Chatt has played real well past 2 games vs Tenn and Charleston. With a 138 total I would lean Over cause Elon has managed to crack the 60's away versus some defensive minded squads like VTech , VCU and Georgia. Would lean Chatt just not sure what the line should be and if this is a flat spot for them.

So.Ill @ West Michigan -

So.ILL just seems to limited on offensive to control games on the road. There latest road loss was @ struggling ST.LOUIS!! It's basically the Shaw and Falker show. Mullins chips here and there but the bench had ZERO points @ STL!

Interesting to see if WMich responds here. They said they were fatigued and had the right to be. Then they allow Northwestern to shot 12/27 from three and lose by 2 at home. After another week off they play @ IUPUI and lose again. Now IUPUI is solid this season playing some quality teams real well. W.Mich can shoot the three. They have played well vs Oregon and defeated Davidson at home.

W.Michigan +3.5

Ohio State @ Clev State -

Huge game for Cleveland State who has already defeated FSU on a neutral floor , won @ USF and played fairly well @ George Mason. Ohio State is a team trying to find an identity. The Buckeyes managed to shock Syracuse but have not played that well vs UNC ( shorthanded) , @ Butler , and vs Texas A&M.

Interesting spot for the Buckeyes since they host Florida on Saturday. Gary Waters is emphasizing home court play (but this is at Cavs court)and feels Youngstown State was a step in the right direction.

Cleveland State +7

Kansas @ GaTech -

Seems odd that GT has not played since 12/5 @ Georgia State and this is there first home game since the opener versus Greensboro. You worry about a sluggish start here.

Kansas has Collins back and GT has Peacock back.

Since GT is down near the bottom in most defensive categories you would expect KU to be able to contine there run of breaking 80 points. While GT has struggled I see no reason why they can't keep this a game. What I do like is the Over 151....

Over 151

StBonnies @ Wright State-

Not sure what to make here. Simply cause I wonder what type effort Wright State puts forward after 4 consecutive tough home games and a buzzer beater vs Miami Ohio.

Charleston @ FSU -

Nothing concrete here. Seems like alot of points for Cremins and his Charleston squad. You wonder if the opening of ACC play makes this a lookahead spot.

Charleston +17 small

Charlotte @ Tulsa -

Charlotte is 1-3 off its home floor with even that being just a 1 pt win. Tulsa holds a great home court edge but has NOT played anyone yet and still has struggled.

FlaIntl @ Mid Tenn-

No opinion. Think yo have to fade Midd Tenn as chalk for now and possibly an over.

Pepperdine @ Little Rock-

Yo have to like Pepperdine's progress. The concern is the fact they always seem to be traveling. Ark-LR didnt look that impressive in the conference opener vs FIU and I think Pepperdine can compete ( at least for a half). With there pressing , up tempo style its hard to not like Pepperdine overs.

Pepperdine 1st Half LEAN

SE Missouri State @ Samford- Since Samford is favored I would expectthem to dictate pace and style. Therefore UND 131....

Murray State @ Jax State-

Conference home dog who has battled Murray State in the past. Think the points are attarctive with Murray State's inconsistency.

Montana State @ ASU-

You wonder how a team with 7 freshman and sophs in there rotation will respond after such a huge upset? Montana State is coming off a nice upset win @ Wyoming.

At times Montana State has struggled on the road but they have also battled Nevada and UNLV. ASU has smoked teams at home but mostly inferior competition. Small lean towards the points.....

Kentucky @ Houston-

I just dont see what Houston has done to date. Kentucky is desperate now after loing the past 3 games to UNC , Indiana and UAB. Leaning Kentucky +4 here..

New Orleans vs Southern Miss -

I dont much about So Miss so I think the line is high seeing how NO is playing. What I do expect is a competitive game leading to an over.

San Fran @ LBST -

Long Beach State is slowly showing improvement. While its odd to see them as a favorite what has SF done to impress?? have to lean LBST here...

Port State @ Washington-

The Huskies continue to struggle ve medicore competition. There ATS record is terrible with the backdoor cover vs Pitt at home. Port State is better then Portland and has already defeated Portland. They have played well @ Wash State as well, plus defeated Akron early...thought we would see -10 here.....+12 makes the dog attractive.....

Alcorn State @ LaTech-

Looking at the dog because LTech could be that challenged offensively.

2007-12-18T02:03:00.000-05:00

NFL:

Pitt travels to STL on Thursday :

Clearly the Steelers are in a tough spot. There slide in my opinion started in the MNF game vs Balt cause it was such a brutal , hard hitting game. The following week they had an improved Browns team looking for some payback for the opener. Pitt on short rest didnt play that well on defense on teh opening drive but corrected themselves as teh game progressed. There flaw was on special teams allowing 2 huge plays which basically led to 14 points and a turnover deep in there territory. Then they traveled to NY who they probably took to lightily but also were exhausted after two tough games. They lose in OT and further show they can be had on the road.Then a MNF game in disgusting weather and field conditions versus the worst team in the NFL , Miami. They kick a late FG and win 3-0. Next up a SNF game in rain vs Cincy where they started slow and adjusted to shutdown Cincy. Now in this period the defense played real well except for a few situations. Then they face NE which may have been there Super Bowl but did so w/o Polamalu. The had theer chances but couldnt make the big play and NE did twice vs the secondary. Then they had to battle Jax in brutal weather and again another rough , hard hitting game.

Now they have a short week after a brutal game. The 2nd H was probably the worst ball STL has played with Bulger and Jackson available. A close game at half was turned into a blowout thanks to sloppy play. The past 2 weeks should leave concern for Pitts defense. There offense is playing fairly well but the OL has struggled to protect Big Ben. Hagans and Kirschke could miss this game. Marvell Smith is OUT. Kirschke is already placing Aaron Smith.

With an ailing defense I would expect a close game. Which leads me to STL 1st H (again) and the Over .

Saturday...Dallas travels to Carolina.

Don't look now but Carolina has won 2 straight at home. They caught Seattle in a terrible spot flying cross country after clinching the division. The Panthers defense is solid but has been sabotaged by its awful offense, Matt Moore was able to move the ball some and the defense had a shutout for 3 quarters.

Again though Dallas is coming off a BATTLE with Philadelphia. They lost Roy Williams to suspension for the horse collar , Romo has some issues with his thumb on his throwing hand , Chris Canty left to injury , as did Gurode at Center and Special teamer Pat Watkins.

Since the GB game the Boys have looked terrible barely beating DET and now losing to Philly who really didnt do much that day. They did pressure Romo and he couldnt do anything besides hit Jason Witten.

While CAR looks real attractive my concern is Dallas jumping out to an early lead leaving CAR unable to recover. However we know DALLAS typically starts slow. The injury report is key here. You have to watch Thomas Davis and Julius Peppers for Car.

One would expect a low scoring game seeing how well Dallas defense played last week factored with Car needing a low scoring affair to compete. The Canty / Willaims issues make it less attractive though. Dallas has not performed well laying double digits especially in both road games @ Buffalo and @ Det.

2007-12-17T19:06:00.001-05:00

Played:

Over 194 Cavs
Over 192 -120 Miami
Over 204 NYK
NYK +3 -120
Memphis +4.5
Orl +6 -120
Under 204 Orl
Spurs ML -130
Hornets -1

EWash +3.5 -120
Ind State +6 -120
Wofford +17 ( did NOT play the OVER cause my book didnt offer it)
Santa Clara -6

1st H
Zaga -14
Ill -12.5

Passed on Utah and Morehead decided to wait till HALFTIME.

2007-12-17T11:54:00.000-05:00

NCAAB Monday :

Tenn-Martin @ Morehead State:

Contrasting styles to say the least. One thing that makes it difficult to get a feel for this game is my belief that (low to)mid majors that can score the ball will play better against tougher road competition. Where as defensive , ball control squads will struggle due to the fact there defensive prowess will be somewhat negated by the better athletes they are facing . As well as there offensive weapons facing tougher defenders and schemes. Not to mention there offensive weapons usually consisting of two players who if shut them down then you basically shut out the whole offense.

So basically I dont think Morehead can travel well with limited scoring where as Tenn Martin can be somewhat competitive in tough enviroments such as Miss State and Memphis.

You look at Morehead's schedule and have to feel they will be overmatched here. The key factor is that this is conference play. For some reason they play Austin Peay real well and I think they were deflated heading into Murray State . Now both teams lost alot from last year but Juco transfer Lester Hudson has been a scoring machine and freshman Weddle has played very well early. Not sure about the status of Gerald Robinson because he didnt play last game.

I have to weigh that Tenn Martin did lose at home to Central Ark and slipped by Maine on a neutral court. One thing that stood out is the fact that Tenn Martin didnt shot very well in a few games but had a nice edge in FT's shot. They snuck my SPC but had 18 more FT attempts , they shot only 37 % @ Ark State, they shot 15 more FTs vs Jax State and only 5 of 22 from three , less then 40% at home vs Central Ark.

Possible attractive home dog ?? However upon 1st glance I though Martin was the play. Not sure what instinct to trust...interested in seeing who dictates tempo though...

Eastern Ill @ EKU :

Two struggling offenses.....Eastern Illinois has played somewhat worse then expected versus a tough schedule for Eastern Kentucky. I have no idea what to make of this matchup cause I have faded E.Ill a few times early. However I dont see why the +10 isnt attractive here?? You have a conference matchup where the DOG has two legit scorers and plays a team who struggles on offensive settling in the high 50's , low 60's.....

To me a pivotal number is 53 for EILL, if they get 53 you would worst case split the Over and the side...

Wofford @ Bama :

Bama doesnt play much defense but Wofford has struggled vs good defenses @ Wisky and ARK (44pts avg). So you would hope they crack the 50s here as you would hope SEC players could defend this Wofford squad better then the rest of there early schedule. With Wofford they have had some injuries with guards Gibson and Nichols now back providing big boosts.

Being that Bama hasnt played much defense and Wofford is in a work in progress getting healthier I would say 17.5 points is looking REAL attractive as is the Over 134 cause I would think Wofford can can get 60+ here now that they are healthy......

Ind State @ Tulane :

Ind State is a team in transition looking for offense. They have Martin starting now along with Moore, Marshall the former walk on and Stinson. Tulane has lost two games they were favored in to a tough New Orleans squad and @ Buffalo. Take away the opening win vs Auburn and what has Tulane done?? They did just beat Gardner Webb of the Kentucky UPSET fame .That Webb team just started HOT and has quickly faded IMO..

Same thing with Ind State when it face Miami Ohio recently. You cant take much from that game cause I think they were flat after letting the Purdue game slip away. I think it is telling they played @ North Texas catching only 5 points and lost by 9. Thats telling to me since NTexas is a solid squad. Not to mention the solid effort @ Purdue.

Think Ind State makes this a game and scores 60+ so that would make the over attractive......

Western Carolina @ Illinois :

While it might be tough to lay 23 points with Illinois look at the Weber State game as an indicator of what it can do at home vs inferior competition. They did allow Weber to "win" the 2nd H and cover but Weber is better then WCU IMO( 25 pt lead at Half). However we can think that Illinois is taking them lightily after losing by 48 @ Indiana. Illinois doesn't have that type of offense though to hang a 100 but has been somewhat suprising at times.

For WCU this has been tough to overcome.....Aldridge, who was averaging 18.8 points a game, left the team for personal reasons prior to the loss to Elon. Giles numbers are skewed by the 32 he dropped vs Charleston as he dropped ZERO @ Indiana. Michael Porrini has taken over the mantle as top scorer for the Catamounts, and he's just a freshman. Porrini isn't a great shooter and he also leads Western Carolina in assists, but he knows how to put the ball in the basket. So WCU is a young inexperienced team playimg a tough enviroment(AGAIN).

I expect WCU in the low 50 here and I think Illinois at home will get 75. So it will be close..... the UNDER @ 138 seems interesting.....78-53..??

North Colorado @ Zaga :

You get the feeling its all about how many Zaga wants to win by. NCU could be w/o Taibi again. If So I wouldnt expect more then mid 50s here for them. See no reason why Zaga doesnt a pproach 80 points here....though the total at 133 was low but now 136/137 seems correct since you would expect mid 130s in this game....

Montana @ Santa Clara

The last time out Santa Clara dropped a home game to Pacific and Montana just lost in OT @ Pacific.

"Montana led most of the second half, but Michael Kirby made two free throws to put Pacific ahead 61-60 with one minute remaining in regulation."

Now Santa Clara seems to be in a bounce back spot here. When Pacifc traveled to there house they were OFF a horrible home loss to Pepperdine and it was a beatdown. So the fact they stepped it up @ SC was not a suprise especially with the line being inflated a couple of points. Now you have Montana rolling in after letting one slip away @ Pacific before falling in OT. Seems to me that very often teams just come out flat when they have an upset slip through there fingers late.

With little time to rebound this should be a flat spot for Montana....and the game seems fairly priced to me at -6.5....Another total thats very tight as the road squad should be in the mid 50s....but lean under cause I dont see more then 70 from the Broncos.....68-57

Portland @ EWU :

In Portland we could very well have another YOUNG team in a bad spot. They pulled off an upset @ Montana with a late 3 ball . Then they gave Washington everything it could handle before falling late. So do they come out flat here?? I would expect them after two great performances and the one that got away lingering in there mind.

East Wash played one heck of a tough schedule early on and few home games. They beat Riverside early and lost by 9 to Santa Clara. I have a hard time laying 3 points with Portland in this spot and think this is a dangerous home dog cause of so many unknowns floating around.

You would expect this game to be played in the mid 50's . However the longer it remains close the better chance we have of seeing this slip into the 60's. So slight lean to UND 124.......61-59

My thoughts so far.......BOL

2007-12-17T02:13:00.000-05:00

NBA Monday :

Utah travels to Hotlanta :

-Utah was playing some terrible ball until the perfect opponent waltzed into town. The Seattle SuperSonics who were playing there fourth road game in 5 days !!! The Sonics started fast and faded playing terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. My point is that we shouldnt think Utah is back to its earlier play cause all they did was beat a tired team and not as impressively as the final states. Okur should be OUT still while Harpring should be available( Nope he is OUT). For Atl they have Law listed as questionable and Childress as doubtful.

-Could this again be the perfect opponent to regain momentum? What I mean is Utah is only 9-0 SU and ATS last 9 meetings vs ATL. They were favored in all and have gone 4-0 in ATL with the last loss in the series being 10/31/02 in ATL! Injuries have left the Hawks shorthanded at Guard . Anthony Johnson is starting at the Point and with Lue , Claxton , Stoudamire and now Law hurt they have only Mario West off the bench. In the past 2 meetings @ ATL the score at halftime was decided by 1 pt.

-Looking at recent meetings Okur's loss might be felt here with some good games @ ATL in the past. Also look out for Pachiula who has played well in the past vs Utah.

- Expect a lot of FTs in the contest which should lead to some ezee points in regard to the total ...

Thinking the best option is wait till HALF. Utah 4 straight Unders and ATL 8-2 UNDER past 10.

Milw travels to Cle :

Outside of defeating LOWLY LAC the only road win for MILW is @ Cle. Which is suprising since the Cavs had won 8 of 9 in the series. Since defeating Bos the Cavs are 1-8 SU due largely to LBJ's absecnce...

If Daniel Gibson plays here I think the Over is worth a play. He keeps the Cavs offense moving and Milw defense has suffered on the road. Cavs should crack 100 then its just a matter of how Milw plays....

Minny @ Miami :
Well Miami could NOT dispose of Indiana when it was theer 4th game in 5 days. Now they catch Minny playing there 5th in 7 days. Which is probably why you get the jacked up lines. However I dont think thes line is to big its just a matter of whats wrong with Miami. Minny has droughts on the road where games get out of hand.

Obviously the Heat are struggling but Minnesota is not of the quality of Indiana OR Washington so a great spot to Wake the Fuck up for them. Miami's defense has really been subpar of late and Wolves always seem to be i the low 90s anyway...so a LEAN towards the over....

Indy @ NYK:
O'Neal status is of interest. Marbury should play.

Not sure Indy deserves road chalk status they have alternated wins and losses of late. Indy always wants to play fast and it seems NY will get sucked into that by opponents.....over ??

GSW @ Memphis :

Pau Gasol is doubtful. Memphis is coming off a nice upset win @ Orl minus Lewis. GSW has lost 3 straight away and struggles in B2B situations. The Warriors did rest most of there starters in the 2nd H.

With GS struugling in my opinion and Memphis maybe looking to show something with gasol injured the Doggie looks inviting. My biggest concern is that Memphis is off an upset SU win as 13 pt dogs.....

As fast as this game may be played I cannot take an over 226 with a key offensive player out and GSW playing on another coast!

Orlando travels to Dallas :

The Mavs are improving of late but this seems like a big number. Orl is slumping going 1-4 since the West Coast trip and off a SU loss as DD favs. rashard Lewis should return here. Dallas seems to be playing defense again with 4 straight under 190 and ORL should emphasize defense after there last performance.

Suns travel to San Antonio :

Parker listed as doubtful. Duncan played 20 minutes the other night. The Spurs showed how tough they were at home when they defeated Suns and jazz last week w/o TD. Now they have him back and face a slumping SUns team losers of 3 of 4.Obviously we have PHO looking for revenge after the Nash incident last year which seemed to lead to there demise. Spurs showed they could score shorthanded and Suns will lokk to push the tempo....Spurs/Over

New orl @ Portland:
Really hoped Port would be favored but still like the Hornets. The Blazers are HOT but a tough spot playing 5th in 7 days winning the previous 4 versus tough competition. Hornets lost by 3 in the last meeting @ Portland.

Tough spot after DENVER. Roy played 40 tough minutes and Frye started off hitting everything.

185 seems crazy low since Portland said it would be faster and has. It's so low I have to pass cause its curious....

2007-12-15T23:51:00.000-05:00

NFL::

With each game it just gets harder and harder to decipher. The injury reports and players lost to injury have reached ridiculous levels IMO.

Balt @ Miami :

- We know Miami is still winless and that should keep them motivated. They are having the 72 Phins in attendance and there may be some cermony for theer 35th anniversary. Not sure but they will be attendance...is this extra motivation ? Truth is who knows these days. I would think some guys would want to shinein front of the veterans but you have Joey Porter say things why would I care I wasnt even born in 72....

- While Miami is decimated by injuries the Ravens are not far behind. The defense should be w/o both starting CBs in Rolle and McAllsiter. Alot of garbage is out there about the Ravens past 2 games. However I hardly read how Balt played last week w/o both it starting CB's. That is pretty signifcant to me when your now looking at your 3,4,5 corners as your starters...Also Ngata was hurt early last week but did return. I doubt he is near 100% , Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs were both listed as questionable but expected to play. Lewis with back issues and Suggs with the FLU. Heap is still out and so is Wilcox probably( Sypnieski starts?). At WR Clayton left the team for personal reasons midweek and I am unsure of his status. Demetirus Williams has been out a few weeks giving Devard Darling some chances.

- Both teams have terrible ATS trends in this matchup but as bad as Miami's are the Ravens could be worse. The Ravens have looked terrible on the road and sport only a 9-7 win @ SF but the ast two away games @ SD and @ Pitt were disgusting!! On the flip though Miami has been awful its past 2 games as well. My belief is though you cant expect them to win on the road at this point.

- Miami's defense is poor but the 1st 31 points allowed last week came on drives that consisted of 161 yds( 1 fumble return for a TD. Lets see what this weather brings and Lemon seems to move the offense much better at this point...

(Lean Miami +3.5 depending on weather Over 37)

2007-12-13T01:15:00.000-05:00

Thursday NBA

Spurs @ LAL - There gonna delay the line till they feel like Duncan is again announced OUT. Believe his return date was pushed back to Saturday but books want to be cautious with a player wgo is worth 5 or 6 pointsin a spread.

Would guess this game opens -5 or -5.5. They were small dog @ GSW and were never in that game after winning two games ta home. I really look @ SA and think what an average team w/o TD. Especially if Parker is playing less then 100%(19 for 50 past 3 ). Anyway LAL beat GSW by DDs as 3 pt favs recently.....anything less then -5 would be to low IMO....higher then 6.5 would probably be to high

Wash @ Miami : Never do I enjoy playing teams returning from West Coast swings. Thye did have 2 days rest after the long trip and ay have some momentum after finishing uo with 2 wins. I thought we would see a high 190s total and lean Under 204.

Even though Wash is uptempo they are missing a key cog in the engine and teams have slowly adjusted to that making other players beat them. Not sure I believe in Miami just yet and like how Wash is playing....

No thoughts on CBB yet...

2007-12-12T18:51:00.000-05:00

NCAAB:

Xavier -18 -120
Over 139 Wisconsin
New Orleans +5
UMass +5
Over 155 UMass
Pacific +6.5
Under 151 Maryland

Raps +4.5

Passing on Wolves and UND 187.5 LAC for now. Still thinking about the NYK over and ORL. hate playing ORL w/o Lewis..

2007-12-12T16:01:00.000-05:00

NCAAB Updated Thoughts :

Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier

Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...

Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139

Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....

Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5

BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155

Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....

Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6

Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133

Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL

2007-12-12T01:34:00.000-05:00

Wed NBA:

Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.

Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...

LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte

Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....

Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .

Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....

Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??

Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!

NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.

GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER

Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored

2007-12-12T00:57:00.000-05:00

Thursday NFL Action :

Denver travels to Houston :

The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.

With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.

On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).

They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.

At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...

Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.

Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.

Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......

Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.

UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN

2007-12-11T19:17:00.000-05:00

NCAAB :

Bradley -135 ML
Evansville +13.5
Over 131 Evansville/ Valpo
So.ILL 1st H -2.5
Under 134 UCF / ULL

Parlay : Panthers ML (NHL) , Bradley ML , Grizzlies +5.5 , and over 204.5 Memphis / Det

NBA:
Over 196 Wash
Leans(waiting to see 1st H ):
Tor / Und
Wash (strong lean)
NJN / Und

NHL:
Panthers -120

Lean :
Over 6 +110 TB

2007-12-11T16:15:00.001-05:00

NCAAB Thoughts :

7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :

Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!

So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.

Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.

Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.

Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...

Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??

ULL @ UCF :

Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....

Evansville @ Valpo :

Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!

The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)

In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.

Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...

Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.

While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...

Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!

Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...

StMarys @ So ILL :

I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.

So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.

They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!

Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....

Sac St @ Oregon :

Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....

Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...

GL

2007-12-10T23:41:00.000-05:00

Tuesday NBA :

Wolves @ Wiz :

Wash is on a 11-2 OVER run. Naturally I had the Over 194.5 last game and at 193 pt swith 90 seconds left they failed to score !! Just my Luck lately. Mix in a 23-9 OVER run versus Western Conference foes.

You have to me somewhat impressed how Wash dismantled NJ in the 2nd H on Sunday. Furthermore a young team upsetting the SUNS at home now traveling seems like a great fade spot. Sure Minny is 5-3 ATS away but look at the numbers ...+8.5 @ NYK , +11.5 LAL , +4.5 @ Sac w/o Artest , +14 @ Den , +11 @ NO ( SU UPSET) , +14 @ Dallas , +9 @ Memphis in a poor spot ( day after they got smoked and choked by SA in the 4th q) , +9 @ ATL where they had ahuge 2nd H rally).

Minny appears depelted some in its bench with Walker and Buckner looking OUT. Looking at the Wiz on offense I feel they should score 104 + points here and Minny should get to 93++...oddly Minny scored 93 in its first 4 road games , then 103 twice before ONLY 80 @ Memphis in the flat spot and 89 @ ATL after a REAL sluggish start...The only concern for an OVER would be a WIZ blowout which would help it sneak under...like a 105-89 win....

So lean to Wiz -9 and lean ov 197....

Raps @ Hawks :

The Raps appear to set to get Bargnani back while playing a sandwich game(home vs Hous then @ Dallas). Bosh returned and appeared fine playing 40 minutes while Ford has worked himself back .

The Hawks will be off a road upset WIN in Orlando. I dont trust ATL in spots against good teams where they must win to cash. They have lost at home badly to SA and DET recently as well as to the Hornets. They were again w/o Lue and Childress so assume they miss here.

One thing we have to applaud is the work ATL did on defense holding ORL to 40% at home. They scored more points tonight then usual really due to late FTs.

Personally I feel its hard to get a pulse on this game. You have some returning players for Tor and Bargnani could be rusty. I owuld hate to take ATL or the Under after passing on them tonite. Though I may be inclined to play a 1st H under......

Pacers @ Cavs :

Guessing we see about -5.5 here with LeBrons return(Hughes just came back) . You wonder what the Cavs will look like on offense. Simply because both James and Hughes have not played in so long together . Hughes looked rusty last game and James probably will be to a degree. Indy playing so uptempo does lead to easy buckets...curious at the number here. Pacers playing better past 2 games and have 3 days rest while Cle desperate to end a losing streak. If we get a big number I would probably take Indy and expect a Cavs SU win but ATS loss.

Clippers @ NJN :

The Nets are playing terrible and due to injuries LAC is terrible this season. Home team dominants the series.

Whats worse being 3-13 ATS last 16 or 0-8-1 ATS at home ?? Thats the situation we have here!! For good measure NJ only 10-24-1 L35 ATS after a SU loss by 10 ++ pts.
Fav is 7-1 last 8 in the series and NJN 0-7ATS last 7 in NJN .....

Since returning from the West Coast NJN has looked terrible. They lost SU at home to Memphis in a game I dont recall them ever leading ( had memphis that nite) , then afetr a few days off looked terrible but rallied and escaped vs Philly , got smpoked @ Det the next day , sort of bounced back by beating a deplted Cavs squad , followed by losing at home to NYK when Kidd sat out , losing at home to Houston and then losing @ Wash !!!!! Thing is what has LAC done to make you excited ?? Last 10 2-8 SU beating a disinterested DEN team awhile back and beating the Kings when they played there 1st game w/o KMartin!

If NJ wasnt struggling -7 would be real soft but since they are its dead on. NJ is desperate to win this and probably puts me on them. With both teams struggling some I would lean UND 184 but thats a tight number...NJ should score low 90's...worst case..

Pistons @ Grizz :

Tough to not like the Grizz and over. After all Grizz are 3-0 ATS as dogs while going 7-2 Over! Now you get Mem after a bad loss when they were just drained after losing in OT @ NO. Problem is minus one bad spot vs Chi the Pistons have been en fuego!!!

Still Grizz have played well vs DET in the past covering 7 of 8 barely missing that eight cover in the series. have to stick with Grizz / Over here....

Seattle @ Chicago :

Seattle seems to be improving playing much better in its past 2 road contests but partly because they made up big 1st H defecits. You have to think Chi + Under at the moment. So UND 189....just cant lay -8 here with Chi having Indy on deck they havent shown the consistency...I dont like Sea in this spot either cause its a perfect number.....

Port @ Utah :

Jazz stumbling some dropping 3 straight road games and 4 vs the number. They have PHO on deck and you wonder how interested they are vs an improving Port squad. With Portland trying to be more aggressive would have to think over 205. Had expected 11.5 or 12 here with Port improving....

Spurs @ GSW :

Duncan should return and SA has owned the Warriors. I think GSW is in a mini funk right now and taking way , way to many 3 pters!! Spurs have won 9 of 10 only losing in a bad spot @ Sac plus they beat Dallas and Utah w/o Duncan....

Curious to see a number would expect SA -3 .....

CBB:

Small schedule had expected a -2 with Bradley @ Wright St....so not sure there. Not familiar enough with ULL to guess a number thought bewteen -9.5 and -11.5....we have -11.5..... , Expected -3.5 with So Ill and thinking about playing 1st H So.Ill cause the number is probably a bit soft due to recent play of these teams. However 1st true road game vs STMarys and they started slowly vs SDST in a neutral site game . Had expected -11 maybe -11.5 with Valpo we see -10.5. Which makes me thinks that Evansville will be a play. Valpo is catching alot of action lately and I would have thought they would have inflated the number slightily...

Last is Oregon hosting Sac State! I kinda expected higher maybe even 35 /36. They have some common opponents and Sac State gets smoked where as Oregon smoked those same teams...

Sac St +22.5 @ Kansas State lost by 30. Tough place to play but I think on a neutral court Oregon is 6 or 7 points better..., they caught +30 @ Stanford and covered now I think again Oregon is 6 or 7 better on a neutral court , how bout Pacifuc and SF ...at -32 orcheaper it seems some sort of Oregon play is in order..maybe 1st H ....they should win by 30 rather easily......

bad signs allowing 47% from 3 pt land and then hitting just 54& from the FT line...Last home game for Oregon for awhile they should win 100-65 after shaking off some rust vs Utah.

See what tmrw brings.....

2007-12-10T22:44:00.000-05:00

I only wish I could listen to me. ATL is what ithas been for 14 weeks......TERRIBLE ! This year more then any terrible NFL teams have been TERRIBLE week after week...

Now in PHO the Suns tie up and fall apart....great sign your fucked...3rd Quarter - 1:39

Will miracles never cease? Shaquille O´Neal is 4 for 4 from the free throw line, can´t remember the last time I´ve been able to say that where he is considered.

I guess my day ended when I passed on ATL and the UNDER then double up on the Philly UNDER.....

2007-12-10T22:06:00.000-05:00

Also all PROPS to Drew Brees he played an excellent and basically flawless 1st H. To think we had NO pinned twice inside the 10 yd line( hell on the 1) and couldnt stop them. Dont like that soft zone ATL has shown...hopefully the Falons either come backor just go to bed early and help my under hit.....

2nd H Suns -10.5

From CBS SPORTSLINE

The half comes to a close with the Heat leading the Suns 67-63. This is the best offensive performance so far this season for Miami, beating their previous high of 66 points. It looked like they may have been getting a little tired towards the end of the half as they were missing alot more shots and having mental lapses on defense.

Add in the fact they shot 2 FTs....oh and hit 32-43, 74% from the floor! 74% and lead by 3 POINTS!!!!!

The Suns seemed to wake up and Miami will be playing the 2nd H of a 4th in 5 nights , remember the SUns in the 4th quarter vs Minny ?? Nash has 1 point vs Quinn but the one knock I see is Amare's 3 fouls??

did play Bucks +3 1st H cause I think 5.5 is ridiculous for SAC to lay and UNDER 198.5.....

2007-12-10T21:23:00.000-05:00

My UNLUCKY streak continues ! really didnt deserve to have a shot at the UNDER 182 in Philly but why foul down 12 with 29 seconds left ?? Stuck on 180 pts all Philly owuld have done was run out the shot clock so if they missed game was probably finished at 180. Naturally I tried to play U 92 2nd H and it goes off as I submit , then factor in passing on ATL and UNDER only to play 2nd H over 99 , the only break so far was passing on NYK and thats not over yet!!!! Need some OT help in ORL to have any chance and that probably wont happen......at least I was smart to lay off the Suns for now....FRUSTRATED !!! Had thought about 1st Q ATL +1/2 and Over 7.5 but not suprisingly passed!

Looking at the late games in NBA and NHL....BOL

2007-12-10T20:46:00.001-05:00

More NBA :

Heat @ Suns :

Terrible spot for both teams . Miami playing 4th in 5 days on a long West Coast trip( b2b) with the absence of two guards Willaims and Parker. The Suns are laos playing 5th in 7 days off an East Coast trip.

I would expect zero defense here. Typically I like to fade teams in there 1st game back home after a long trip. However I also like to fade teams in there 4th in 5 spot. Probably would think Miami is in the worse spot here playing PHO in a 4 / 5 spot.....so have to lean Suns here..

basically off a LOSS against a tired team I took the 1st quarter OVER 55.5 . Plan on taking SUns 2nd H so gambling the 1st H isnt so bad........nash himself talked about how tough it was to play a 4th in 5 (5th in 7 actually) on a different coast all on the road and Miami is in a similiar spot....especially shorthanded and banged up some...

Shaquille O'Neal added eight points and eight rebounds in 33 minutes, but again sat out down the stretch as Riley used Alonzo Mourning the final 1:07. O'Neal, who was critical of teammates earlier in the week for not getting him the ball more, has averaged just 9.4 points his last five games and 14.6 for the season - well off his career mark of 25.7 points per game.

"Zo is a little more mobile than Shaq right now," Riley said. "You could see that Shaq was laboring a little bit because of his thigh, so he was dragging his leg around doing the best job he could do. (Mourning's) a shot blocker, he's a big body and everybody knows he's coming. He gives our players confidence because he can get up there and he has such good timing."

2007-12-10T18:38:00.000-05:00

NBA :

Houston @ Philly :

Suddenly the Sixers have shown life giving the Celtics all they can handle then defetaing NYK in both ends of a home and home series. The Rockets are playing there
3rd road game in 4 days. In the previous two they jumped out to huge 1st H leads only to squander them in the 2nd H . However yesterday they squandered the WIN not just the big halftime lead! Last season they smoked the Sixers in both meetings including by 50 @ Philly. Revenge here or just an impossible uphill climb?? Worse is they struggled toscore in both meetings.

You would think Alston is out with a strained groin. If he couldnt go yesterday I dont think 1 day would be that much of a difference but I dont know for sure. For Philly they will be w/o key bench player Louis Williams.

Due to Philly's increased play of late coupled with Alston's probable absence and 3rd roadie in 4 days I like Philly. However I felt we would see +7 here and we have lost some of that value along with key reserve Louis Williams. games vs Eastern teams on the road have been lower scoring ....think you have to pencil in Philly for 85 points despite there recent play and would guess this game dosnt crack 178 points....

UNDER 183 and +6

Atl @ Orlando :

Once teams go on huge runs they tend to have a fall back period it appears both ORL and GSW are in that category now. ORL in a bad spot returning home from a West Coast trip lost SU to INDY at home. Now they did have significant rest which should have helped overcome the negative situation. So I am not expecting a bounce back effort here. The Hawks have been staying in the mid 80's while ORL seems to have adopted a quicker pace like its recent West Coast opponents though playing Indy doesnt help.

Under 195 and +10

Dallas @ NYK :

Marbury will sit out . The Knicks were terrible last outing and have beat Denver and Utah at home while battling Pho despite losing the cover late . Dallas has shown no conisitency but owned NY in the past. Mavs are only 4-6 on the road but what can you expect from NYK here ??Dallas hasnt played any defense and neither has NYK. You would best be suited to play the 1st H over though...

NYK +9

My PC froze and this didnt get submitted . Only played : Under 182 Philly and Philly +6. Passed on my leans of ATL , UNDER 195.5 , Dallas +9 cause I filled with self doubt of late!! BOL

2007-12-10T17:32:00.000-05:00

Since I feel like I have researched this game to no end my conclusions stay the same. The Falcons can WIN this game if they simply do not self destruct like they did vs Carolina , TB , and even the Colts and Giants to some degree. The problem is that ATL has made this a trait of there team and how do you break it in week 14 ?? Possibly through better QB play which could increase overall team confidence( this is my guess at how they will). No one believes Insurance Salesman Chris Redman is a savior but who was Luke McCown before last week when he traveled to face the Saints?? I know he was a guy who basically had last played in a few games in 2004 for Cleveland !!! That 109 passer rating wasnt to shabby! Back to those COSTLY penalties that keep drives alive the Hall taunting on Steve Smith , the Giant game had more then a few , the roughing the punter vs Indy , the shoddy play vs TB that lead to points for TB , etc. You have to have discipline and focus to keep that from occuring. Again something tough to resolve in week 14 but through better QB play the team in general has less plays to make and less time to foul up.

The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.

So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.

Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!

What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....

At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....

Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.

Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50

Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL

2007-12-10T00:52:00.000-05:00

You call this Monday Night Football????? Saints visit the Falcons!!

Long ago Deuce McAllister was lost for the season and now the underacheiving but ever exciting Reggie Bush will hang with him on the sidelines. That means once again we have a 3rd string player in a star position !! This year more then any the injuries seem to have piled on for certain tams at certain positions. Now they turn to Aaron Stecker who has been largely unproductive running the ball this season especially on the 2 occassions he received 10 + carries( not a great indicator cause he wasnt the featured back like he will be here). Really though with Bush struggling as a featured back will there be a dropoff ? Stecker can catch the ball as well. Clearly he is not the gifted athlete that Bush is and that is what they lose. That explosiveness and big play ability.

Flip to Atlanta and they are basically riding with there 4th string QB a guy who was out of the league for 3 years in Chris Redman. To throw more chaos into the situation the Vick sentencing will be shortly before kickoff( a few hours). Update: He recieved 23 months in prison. You would believe there are going to be some ATL players more focused on the sentencing then the GAME. Finally Jerious Norwood has been dubbed the starter , hopefully he continues to get more carries. Despite terrible QB play Roddy White has emerged with 62 catches and 900+ yards which include four 100+ yd recieving games including the last two games. One of which was the 1st meeting in NO when Leftwich and Harrington played. It appears Crumpler is back in form after 7 catches last week as well.

The bottomline is Redman. How do you put a value on this guy ?? He came into a game down 21-3 late 3rd quarter and moved the ball versus a very average defense that had probably grown complacent . You flip back to his BALT days and his numbers were decent when he started and they were fairly solid last week. Redman's play is so key beyond the obvious because even his offense said it felt some sort of confidence with him in there watching him make plays and move the ball. That NEEDS to carry over here.

How many times have we gone over the MNF angle which STATES that UNLESS the SPRESAD is DOUBLE DIGITS you simply need to pick the SU winner and forgo the spread. Meaning if you think the fav wins lay the points but if you think the DOG wins then take the ML!!

The Falcons after switching to Leftwich seemed to really fall apart. Looking at the Saints season besides that "ODD" massacre win @ Seattle on SNF what impresses you about this team? They are 1-3 past 4 games only winning at AWFUL Carolina while losing @ Houston and HOME vs STL and TB with Luke McCown and Earnest Graham !! On the season they snuck by ATL @ home , defeated Quinny Gray and the JAGS , and beat up on SF !! The Saints defense got back some of its missing pieces and were shredded by McCown and TB last week. They allowed 466 yards of offense compared to NO 246 and let the game get away late ! Now they MUST win out to have a shot at the playoffs. There defense didnt look so good @ Houston allowing Schaub in his return a solid afternoon. Redman seems comfortable due to his familiarity with Petrino from there Louisville days.

The key is simply Redman's play , ATL focus and the offensive play calling. With backs like Dunn and Norwood compared to Stecker and Thomas the Falcons should be able to control TOP. With 1 supposed shutdown corner they should also shrink the field of play for New Orleans. That should lead to better play by their defense.

Simply put the Saints have NOT played anywhere near the level it did last season. Thinking at 5-7 they have a shot at the playoffs seems like a fantasy to me. They couldnt defeat Luke McCown and the Bucs at home in a game to get to 500 and shrink the division lead. Now traveling to ATL and cause its LABELED a must win spot they will play well?? Nah !! However ATL has been great at self destructing see Car , NYG and Indy home losses and will be relying on Redman to lead !!!

Has anyone seen a sign that ATL has quit ? The rallied last week on the road when trailing 21-0 at half , they started good vs Indy leading 13-7 upon until the 23 minute mark ....the effort seems to be there.....

Not sure but the Falcons ML would have in my eyes more value then laying the points.....STRONG LEAN : ATL ML

You have to wonder who has more momentum if there is such a thing here....ATL rallying to almost comeback and win on the road now returning home Or New Orleans choking a way a key Win at home now traveling??????

2007-12-08T23:48:00.000-05:00

Random NFL Thoughts :

Miami @ Buffalo :

- As a reminder back in Dec '03 the Phins with Jay Feidler @ QB went to Buffalo in 35 degree weather and 3 pt dogs leaving with a 20-3 win. The had 169 total yards of offense that day and 12 penalties. Just for the theory of the warm weather team playing in a cold weather venue in Dec angle. As well as the recent Miami MNF game in Pitt with the terrible weather and worse field.

- Miami is 0-6 AWAY with 4 losses by 3 points and 2 losses by 10 points. If they converted 1st goal from the 1 yd line @ Philly it would have been 5 of the 6 losses by 3 points ( they didn't I know coulda, woulda, shoulda). You could include the London game in this discussion which they lost 13-10 which would make 5 of 7 by THREE points. The funny part and I would attribute it to better opposition and more pressure to win is they have been smoked at HOME with only 1 LOSS by three points , against Buffalo . Dallas 17 , NE 21, NYJ 27, and Oakland 18 have traveled to Miami and smoked them by at least 17 points!!

- Miami is down to 3rd string QB Rookie John Beck . Who being he played @ BYU could be moe prepared for the weather the Buffalo Rookie Trent Edwards of Stanford. Just a thought. Remember it supposed to rain which I guess could be snow if Temps permit but remember Becj just played in rainy weather @ Pitt and did fairly well. The Phins if Chatman is unavailable or limited could be down to 4th and 5th RB's in Samkon Gado and Lorenzo Booker. Both got there 1st Miami carries last week. Gado burst onto the scene in 05 with three 100+ games in the 5 which he saw at least 20 carries. They have lost most of there passing leaders when Chambers was dealt and Ronnie Brown went down with injury. Ted Ginn Jr has stepped it up some in recent weeks. Basically the Phins have been left without playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. If thats not enough Marty Booker appears to be a gametime decision. Who starts Hagan & Ginn ?? Lots of two TE sets??

- For Buffalo Trent Edwards is 4-1 as a starter actually 1 point and 1 late FG short of being undefeated. He defeated NYJ and Balt narrowly at home will winning @ NYJ( with help from Losman) and Wash last week. I finally think the chinks in the defense have shown in recent weeks more so the pass defense. They did keep Wash in check especially on the ground but Wash also was 1 of 4 in the red zone settling for 3 short FGs ( the longest being 33 yds) and also were 1-2 in goal to go situations. So the opportunity was there to score against them. The previous weeks Jax had 36 but 17 fourth quarter points and NE had 50 ++ . However again vs Jax the Jags managed 1-5 in the red zone and 0-2 in goal to go situations! They allowed TWO 50+ YD TD plays. Also with Edwards in there instead of Losman Lee Evans cannot be the big play WR he is. Edwards just doesnt throw it as well deep and probably wont be asked to do it much.

- Buffalo could have Lynch back running the ball but A-Train is still OUT leaving Fred Jackson again in a position of need.

- On paper you look at this and ask how can Miami score ? How is Buffalo just -7 when they were small favs as much as -3 in Miami with Lemon and Chatman healthy. Wouldnt -10 make more sense?? I think partially with poor teams its just not as cut and dry as home field is worth 3 or 3.5 pts. Some HOME teams have ZERO Home value and thats what looks like what is going in Miami. The last meeting was basicaly dominanted by Miami and they lost ! Most players felt that was the TOUGHEST close loss of all although the Pitt game didnt take place at the time of those comments.

The Dolphins committed no turnovers, allowed Buffalo to convert only two third downs and benefited from a big day by journeyman Jesse Chatman, who rushed for a career-high 124 yards. Still they lost.

He then ran for the 2-point conversion, spinning across the goal after he was hit to make it 10-all.

Miami's Ted Ginn Jr. returned the kickoff 86 yards for an apparent touchdown, but the score was negated by a holding penalty on Greg Camarillo."I wish that could have been the play to take us into a victory," said Camarillo, his voice shaking with emotion half an hour after the game. "I thought it was a fair play, but the refs called it, and I'm guilty. I'll take the blame for it."

The Dolphins made two first downs before punting, and Roscoe Parrish returned the kick 40 yards to midfield with 4:37 left. Buffalo converted two third-down situations to move to the 16 and set up Lindell's field goal.

- Miami lost Cameron Worrell being replaced by Lance Schulters in the starting lineup and CB Michael Lehan did not practice on Friday.

-NO matter how you look it at the Dolphins are one of the worst teams on paper I can recall in 20 years.

So my feeling is this again a game where the weather neutralizes the offenses. On paper Buffalo laying just 7 seems cheap versus this Miami lineup. However if the weather is what it appears to be then we could be looking at another bore fest !! And my gut seems to think Miami plays well here after the SHIT FEST last Sunday. The KEY is watching the weather in the AM and early afternoon

Rams @ Bengals :

- Somehow the RAMS should be winners of 5 straight. However losing Jackson to injury vs Cle lead them to blow an early big lead and followed suit a few weeks later when Bulger went down vs Seattle . Still they are 3-2 L5 with two road wins. The problem here is not only is Bulger OUT but Frerotte is UNABLE to start as well . Leaving Brock Berlin in his NFL debut.....on the road , in bad weather , and on grass!

Berlin has been on the practice squad all year and hardly even worked with the Rams' wide receivers in practice this week.The smallish, weak-armed former Florida Gator and Miami Hurricane knows Scott Linehan's system, but that's about it. Berlin's addition signals the Rams could be preparing to be without Marc Bulger (head) in Week 13 oh BOY!!!

- One would think Stephen Jackson and the running game will see alot of action. This could be troublesome though if you look at Cincy vs the RUN past few games. They did a solid job @ Pitt vs Willie Parker , at home Tenny and then Edge did very little. Even McGahee @ Balt was slowed 17c 60yds. So being they can stop the RUN suddenly it seems STL is in for along tough day as Berlin is in a terrible SPOT! Remember there OL has been an issue all season! There defense has some injuries as well.

- Outside of the game @ NO when all were healthy the Rams OFFENSE has been non existant on the road.

While the RAMS defense concerns along with the possibility of Berlin giving a potent offense short fields you have to like UND 45.5 , Under 17.5 Rams team (guessing) and I may have to tease Cincy to EVEN with something else....

Oakland @ GB :

This will be GB at it's FINEST ! Weather that is...15 to 20 degrees!!!! GB can CLINCH a playoff game and HOME playoff game as well as the CENTRAL with a home win.

- This really sets up as an interesting game for a few reasons. First you wonder if now that GB has lost (again) if the air is out of there bubble?? Sort of a flat period ..?? Not sure just wondering and think it's highly possible. The cold weather with warm weather OAK coming to town. Very interesting !! Luckily its a 1 PM game when the sun should be out still and not be as miserable as later start would be. Still pretty rough situation. However the STORY is Brett Favre !! Folks he didnt return vs Dallas ...not a good sign , Rodgers is OUT with Nall as backup...not a good sign , inconsistent reports on his injury....not a good sign ...seperated left shoulder Or his elbow ?? Worse is if his left shoulder is seperated think what being slammed down to the ground ..uhm Frozen Tundra will do to that !!!

- The GB run defense has been somewhat subpar of late allowing 4.3 YPC past 3 games. You can't be to excited by the WINS vs Carolina w/o Steve Smith and Minny with Bollinger @ QB . They do have the benfit of some exra rest here. As well as probably seeing KGB and Woodson return although you dont know how the extreme cold factors into this.

- OAK playing better and relatively healthy are traveling for 3rd time in 4 weeks and into a different time zone. The Raiders are playing better even winning consecutive divisional games!! However they have been shredded on the ground on the road allowing all opponents starting RB in excess of 100+ yards actually Travis Henry had the low of 128!!!!!! Grant has been solid running the rock but Justin Fargas has been just as good probably better past few games. OAK is 4-2 ATS away this year....

Based mainly on my belief that Favre is less then 100% and could see limited action the +10.5 / +11 is the play with a possible UNDER sprinkled in .

Still looking at the OTHER 5 early starts ! Though really seem to like Car +11 and Over 38 -120 , Philly and the Lions.....Good Luck

2007-12-03T16:56:00.000-05:00

Monday NBA:

Charlotte @ Toronto :

The Bobcats have decided to start Jared Dudley in place of Primo Brezec. Which should slide Okefor over to the middle and put Dudley @ PF. Brezec really had not done much and seen a considerable dropoff from a few seasons ago. Basically Char is going smaller and you would think they may be play a bit faster pace. Raptors will be w/o Bosh , Bargnani and Ford it looks like on Monday. Which leaves Delfino , Calderon , Moon , Nesterovic , Kapono and Parker. With Dixon , Baston , Humphries , Graham and Martin . Now in the loss @ Wash the Raps got next to nothing from Ford and Bargnani.

Cats are searching for answers losing 5 straight including two tough losses in OT vs Wash and Boston. They have lost 8 of 10 in the series vs Toronto. You would expect a faster paced game.

The OVER 189 and due to value a play on Char +4 and / or ML. Just think how they struggled with Cle at home when Lebron was absent ....Bargnani played well that night ...

Atl @ Philly :

Sixers have won 8 of 10 in the series. Here are two teams you can't figure out. They are models for inconsistency despite being poor to begin with. Philly looked good for most of there past 5 games but they tend to play 1 good half and follow it with one awful half. A great team if leading at HALF to fade. On paper ATL is the better team but there PG issues keep them medicore at best.

I would have suspected more of a PK line so I would prefer ATL +3. Even though my 1st intinct was Philly wins this game. The total is spot on at 180 cause offense woes are obvious for both. ATL has played 6 straight unders and they have only cracked 180 once(181). This game looks to be played in the 80's...

Portland @ Memphis:

The Blazers have been terrible of late especially on the offensive side of the ball. However this game smells of OVERREACTION. The Grizz did smoke Minny who was short a few bodies off a tough home loss to SA. Remember when they were outscored by a TON in the 4th quarter. Portland looked terrible yesterday but did beat Memphis earlier in Portland. I would have expected more like -6 here...while the pace should be fast wouldnt take an over @ 204 when they continue to score about 85 points. Now being terrible on the road is one thing to consider as Dallas was one of there first ATS covers that were NOT a SU win.

Dallas @ Chicago :

With the struggles they are facing it is hard to back Dallas at this point. On the other hand can we be happy with CHI after consecutive wins?? Type of game it may be better to watch a Half before getting involved. The total seems low to me but has moved lower. I would have expected this game to be around 190 . The games in Chicagotend to be around 190 pts so no value either way but a higher total 194 ish would have put me on the UNDER...

Miami @ Utah :

Miami has stunk in most of there recnt games especially the past two. However they do own 7 straight wins against UTAH. The two times that Miami caught big numbers they covered this season. However Utah has laid some beatdowns in Utah and Miami is coming off a game in Denver. The Heat havent scored much on the road and they need to play in the low 90's to keep it a game. The problem with Utah is they have scored a ton at home and there ercnt games have played OVER despite few times where they allowed even 95 points.....

Orl @ GSW :

One of the game sthat a situational / professional bettor loves to see. Two hot teams squaring off but the Magic ending a 5 game Western swing coming off tough games in Pho and LAL. Orl is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when most teams fail to be able to cover an entire trip .

GS is simply playing excellent balland to me is the hottest team in the NBA. Couped with the situational aspect youhave to like the home squad. I would guess professional bettors jumped on GSW -1 and pushed it to -3.....

The total seems high so would lean UNDER....

2007-12-01T14:05:00.000-05:00

Jusr horrible effort , gameplan and coaching by everyone associated with Miami Ohio except there defense. Bewteen the vanilla play calling and lack of touch by the QB the offense sputtered in th 1st H. Mix in shitty kicking from the FG who decided the gam by missing an easy straight ahead mid 30's FG down 14-3. Then why go for an onside down 21-10 with 9 minutes left when you just had consecutive drives where you moved the ball quickly...stupid play but worse execution.....probably should have played BC and that inflated number. Like everyone you just expect VaTech to win here but how on a neutral field does this game see anything other VT -1.5 ???At least I didnt play the hokies....

2007-12-01T00:02:00.000-05:00

Watching the beginning of the RU/Ville game I continually asked myself where was this RU offense coming from? Teel can play the QB position fairly well but all season long its been either his bad thumb causing inconsistencies Or his talented WR's dropping easy catches. Early on the RU offense looked like a well oiled machine. I felt they were playing over there head. However I was asking myself what I did I miss when capping this game?? Once it got 21-3 there was obvious concern that was somewhat mentally downplayed by the fact that I knew WVU jumped out to a big lead and the Cards were able to come back. Helping matters was that was @ WVU and this was home. So once 21-3 came I was basically waiting for that 1 play or drive that iced the game whether it be on offense or defense. It never came. If your watching that game you had to feel pretty good about Lville winning it after the Cards scored right before half. It did a number of things for the Ville. It instilled some confidence , some life in the fans that were left , it cast some doubt in the RU defense and it showed how quick the Louisville O could change the game if the defense could slow RU. I felt all along that while the Cards defense had not played fgood all season the past month it had shown great improvement and the 2nd H it showed. Once the held RU to a FG when they were inside the 5 yd line it became a question of could Ville sustain momentum. Could they score and cut it to 7? Well they did rather easily and quickly. Then they got another stop and could they do it again. The momentum just built and really if you sit back and think about it was the exact same thing that happened in last years meeting. It was like the UNIVERSE evening out....so tough PUSH hopefully for the RU backers and a nice win that should have been easier by Ville....So while it looked very lucky for Ville backers I would simply ask what made you BET RU in the 1st place ?? What advantage did they have ?

More NCAAF :

11AM start : MAC Championship CMU vs Miami Ohio:

Miami Ohio +3.5
After looking at these teams I have decided one thing . While CMU is extremely talented on OFFENSE it's overalll team effort is very average. There defense is poor and they are prone to penalties. Miami has played very sound defense and we know defense wins championships.

What I find concerning is that while Miami lost last week it had 5 FG's including 3 that were kicked inside the 5 yard line. They also won the time of possession and held Ohio to 200 yards of total offense!! Where CMU lost the TOP , had more turnovers , more penalties and yet had a 2-1 yardage advantage. Look at CMU lately. They got smoked @ Clemson , beat a 3rd string Frosh QB by 9 @ Kent State , edged WMU by 3 , lost at home to EMU by 3 and won @ Akron by 3 .

To me the best thing CMU did all year was win convincingly @ Ball State. However they were really under the radar due to shabby play and were catching 12 that day cause Ball State had been on somewhat of a roll and CMU had lost to North Dakota State at home. However Miami Ohio also won @ Ball State in the opener 14-13 catching only 4 points....

So basically what I am getting at is minus the Akron game the Miami Ohio Offense has been able to move the ball. I believe Brandon Murphy played last week and got 4 carries which would be a huge lift if he is available. CMU pulled two wins out of its ass on the road @ WMU and @ Akron. They just dont impress me as a TEAM and there schedule hasnt done much for me either......plus they fact they coasted the past two weeks doesnt help either IMO.....

C-USA :

Despite believing that UCF is the much better team I think 7.5 is to many here. Tulsa run defense isnt that bad its there pass defense thats horrendous. Which means you need more from Israel then previously IMO. No doubt Smith will get his but Israel will have to play well and for me he is to inconsistent. So small lean to Tulsa covering the 7.5 with senior Paul Smith at the gun. Really the Houston win was so impressive where as UCF was beating up bottom dwellers . Naturally there defense vs Rice and Army is alarming ....which means Over 74 looks low....42-38 Final?

Army vs Navy:

Army is not a very good team. However Navy's defense especially its pass defense is poor. I did notice that carson Williams played well vs a similiar bad Tulsa defense and even versus another bad pass defense in CMU. Navy is 0-5 ATS laying 7 or more and there wins have been by 11 3 times and twelve once. so they havent won a game allseason by two TDs. While Army played a very tough schedule littered with solid defenses. BC , GT , Wake from the ACC and even RU and AF sport above average power conference defenses IMO. So if you believe Army will score then take the points...navy should get there 38-42 which tells you why the total is 65 cause they expect Army to score at least 24....thinking about taking the points in the rivalry game cause Army should be able to score and Navy hasnt stopped anyone.....Also Army did a sound job vs the triple option last year and they prepare for it and are feeling confident they have a legit shot in this game if the defense performs like it did last season vs Navy and the offense builds off the Tulsa performance......plus anytime a team has 3 straight wins that 4th year the senior class always wants that one real bad....

GL

2007-11-29T15:29:00.000-05:00

NBA Thoughts :

Two quick comments. First is message boards seen rampant with comments about fading the public , line movement , reverse line movement , etc. When looking at lines two things should be considered before all else. First is the line proper ? Bad lines always lose . You need to then ask yorself if you feel a line is off why is it adjusted ? Whether it be higher or lower. Perfect example is last night with Cle @ Det. If you are a situational capper you should have been HUGE on the Pistons last evening. First the Cavs were in an awful spot. Playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT. The OT game was a huge matchup facing the Celtics but they had played earlier close games vs Tor on Sat and @ indy on Sunday. So combine tough games with travel , B2b off OTand youhave a very limited BENCH!!! Devin Brown , Ira Newble and damon Jones is basically all Then factor you have DET getting healthy with two days rests off ahome loss. Plus possible some payback in mind after Det was ousted by CLE in the playoffs. Everything was against CLE. You think they opened the game -9.5 for a reason? I sure did . Clearly LeBron has carried Cle of late and there are just some spots when its to muck to ask from a player especially when DET plays tough defense. As high as theline seemed we did de see -6 throughout the playoffs so I knew why the line was asjusted. Then bet accordingly. The other part is there is just to much emphasis on fading line moves and the betting public w/o capping the game. You want to be contrarian thats fine but pick your spots every game doesnt have some sort of mystery to it. I am guility at times as well of this but traps are caused by situations and misunderstanding of teams and lines not so much a design by the oddsmakers even though there job is to trap bettors into betting bad lines.

Also when teams are COLD dont lay heavy chalk with them cause funks last several games. Right now we have DAL , LAL , Den off the top of my head as teams who lay heavy lumber but are playing poorly. Right now GSW is on fire and after winning vs PHO in the WORST SPOT I made a mistake of jumping the gun and fading them in Sac. when truth be told chances are the HOU game was the situational tougher one. The Rockets have won 3 games now in somewhat impressive fashion which makes them look like they are getting hot. GSW played on the EAST , came home beat PHO , now traveled to Sac and won with a game vs Hou here .

Very tough to fade GSW right now but that is a possibility here cause Hoiuston could be in the midst of what GSW was a week ago.....Same with Bos actually. They are slumping abit where as NYK has put together two solid games now. Why run and lay -13 ??

be back later......BOL

2007-11-29T14:38:00.000-05:00

CFB:

RU @ Louisville

Crazy matchup IMO. First we have a HUGE REVENGE factor in this game. Some people will say this is an overused angle in capping. It is to a degree just cause one team beats another doesnt make the next meeting a so called revenge or payback situation. It's more about what made that game so emotional or along that degree of thinking that sets up a revenge spot IMO. Here we have the rematch of what was two undefeated teams who were battling for the Big East crown and possible BCS/ National Championship berth. With Louisville up big at half they fell to pieces and couldnt recapture the momentum. As Brohm put it a downward spiral they couldnt escape. I do not like Kragthorpe as a head coach as from what I have seen he has made many bad decisions and seems like a gambler. Back to the revenge aspect - If you dont believe me listen to Harry Douglas of Da Ville who is playing probably his last game. "I've definitely had this game circled all year," wide receiver Harry Douglas said. "That game broke my heart last year. It's probably the only thing that's ever broken my heart in my whole life. So I've been waiting for this one." Also OL Giacomini is from NJ and is putting huge emphasis on a good showing.

Some other factors are Louisville playing for Bowl eligibilty. They still will have an uphill battle to get a bowl but a impressive beating of RU should be helpful . Especially when you have a stud prospect in Brohm to use as a selling point. On the other hand RU appears headed to the INTERNATIONAL BOWL in Toronto. No , it has not been confirmed but appears very likely at the moment. You naturally have senior night , last home game and possibly last game for Brohm , and maybe some negative perception due to the USF beatdown. Plus the prospect of RU being flat if the players believe that win or lose its the INTERNATIONAL BOWL.

Looking at the entire season what has RU done to impress anyone?? Seriously please tell me. Factor in Teel's thumb injury which is supposedly getting better but also needs just one hit and its reaggravated( 3 big passes to Britt last week and nothing else). There best wins are Navy , Pitt and USF at home. All which could and maybe should have been losses. RU pulled out every trick in the book to beat USF at home which is two totally different teams Home and Away. Thank Navy for repeated turnovers near or in the end one and Pitt if the had any offense would have won. Still they had TD nullified at the end cause of offensive pass interference and then were picked off on the next play. They had a ton of drives starting in RU territory but often choose to just run the ball and settle for FGs. They even missed a short 31 FG . Now Pitt also played Lville well and could have tied it late. However I think they won @ Cincy and battled back to TIE WVU @ 31 in the closing minutes before Pat White made a play to end it. Where as Cincy probably undeservingly won @ RU and WVU smoked RU in the rain at home. Even look at the UConn game. Both traveled there and again Lville much better showing. They didnt put the Huskies away and lost where as RU was never really in the game. Louisville was down this year. The defense struggled vs Middle Ten and it carried over somewhat to Kentucy. Woodson made plays to defeat Lville in the 4th quarter. It was a coin flip game and how would RU fair @ Kentucky? I think knowing how bad Cuse was they came in flat after such a huge loss. They caught Utah when they were getting healthy and again what would RU do vs them?

See the RU offense has progressed with its passing game thanks to better WR's. Though they still suffer from drops. They did not replace Leonard and Clark @ FB and TE which hurts them in 3rd downs and red zone effeciency IMO. While the Cards have struggled to find a consistent running game and may use Powell more here in look to next year.

I understand Louisville defense is bad. I will point out that Slayton did not play well vs them and if Teel is less then 100% maybe they can contain Rice who seems to be to overly depended on to provide offense. Also I dont think RU defense is anywhere near as good as it looks statisically. Weak opponents do that. They played hardly any good offenses all season.

Remember that both started with high expectations leading to some huge numbers to cover.

At the end of the day I think this game has to much significance for Louisville bewteen stars playing there last home game and possible last game , bowl eligibilty and revenge. To boot they are the better TEAM IMO and Home with a line that you basically just need a win...the defense played fairly solid @ Cincy , @ UConn and vs Pitt. It struggled somewhat with WVU though 38 points isnt a bad showing @ WVU. It wasnt till USF where maybe they were caught in a fog did they look bad. They looked asleep allowing the opening kick which was fumbled for a TD. Maybe off a tough defeat and lookahead spot they werent properly focused and before they knew it they had a huge defecit to overcome.

Thinking about -140 but just may lay -2.5.....I think 60 points may be alot here cause RU will run alot rather then get in a shootout I believe...high end you might see 34-24 but thinking more like 31-20.....

Good Luck

2007-11-27T13:44:00.000-05:00

You ever wonder what holds you back from going forward with one play(s) and pushes you onto another? In all seriousness anyone watching the downpour @ Heinz Field coupled with the knowledge of the new sod after the FRI & SAT games had to ask themselves how will anyone score ? In fact the game reminded me of one of Big Ben's first career starts in Miami during a storm where the Steelers won something like 13-3.

I thought you had to take Miami cause there probably wouldnt be 15 points scored in the game. You had to take the UNDER and the 1st Half UNDER. You could take every UNDER in each quarter. If you had FG PROP the approriate play was the UNDER in that. My book didnt have one cause they KNEW it was an easy under. That game should have been a CASH COW. You know what I took and maybe something I can use an excuse was having to be somewhere at 9 PM was an entire 1/2 unit on the 1st H under!! lets not forgot the team totals Under 12 Miami and Under 28 Pitt!!!! It really eats at me to no end.

Another subject is I have trouble making decisions. Part of the anxiety issue and possibly some ADD or other disorder. Though I havent had it confirmed yet. Anyway my point is I look at the game spend hours capping it and writing it up for nothing. I sad the KEY was the weather. Well not being in Pitt I needed to see some visual confimation of the field before making a decision. So again all that work done and the weather is so bad the ONLY way to play is it take the points +16 and the under...no capping required. So my point is I try to gather INFO to make the best decision possible before gametime. In my opinion there really are to many factors to bother worrying about early lines and the best line. You should cap a game to win/ lose by the closing line. Rarely does the difference in lines from OPEN to CLOSE make a difference on how your wager is graded.

Now due to limited time its impossible to write down my thoughts on the entire card and always seem to leave out some solid plays..Kings , Ov 1st H warriors , Over 1st H washington U .....Have ro do better to get my entire card out there cause it helps me cross the tee's and dot the i's....

And we move on.....

NBA:
Boston @ Cle :
Ray Allen is playing with a bum ankle and dont see 1 day off doing all that much to help it. Tony Allen looks doubtful for the bench but his role has been limited anyway. Cavs playing 3rd in 4 days and still pissed I didnt take them on Sunday cause I couldnt understand how they were +2?? No way Indy should have been favored...I cant see how Boston opened at -3 and went higher. I thought worst case we would see BOS -1.5. They havent played all that well on the road winning in OT @ Toronto , losing in Orl by 2 after a furious rally and barely defeating Charlotte at the buzzer. They whipped NJN w/o Carter and who didnt ? they beat up On Indy shortly after Diogu was lost and Daniels was OUT. depth is always an issue for Cle and with Hughes out of the lineup they tend to score more and allow more. Think Cavs ...

Memphis @ NJN :
The Nets look like a different team with the services of Vince and Nachbar playing like he did last year. Looking at the past few games and knowing MEMPHIS up-tempo style I would suggest an OVER here but remain cautious and want to see where this total ends up cause memphis is OFF a game where they exceeded 240..(a caution flag for me) What makes this a complicated game is NJN is playing its 1st game back after a West Coast Swing which ended pretty late on Sunday . So you wonder if they are flat here or if they have the legs to run with memphis. They have off till 12/1 after this and if they hadnt won 3 straight this would be an automatic fade. I did fade LAL on Sunday due to them returning from a west coast swing as well as the Struggling Hornets yesterday. I stayed off of GSW cause they were coming back from Philly playing a rested Suns team. That was a mistake clearly. The Grizzlies are NOT a good road team losing 5 straight and stand at 1-6 thanks to lowly Seattle which faded in the 4th quarter like they always do.

Charlotte @ Miami

Really dont have much of an opinion on this game. Thought the line would be -7 / -7.5 here since Wade has returned and he is worth 4 maybe 4.5 points in my estimation. Miami has NOT shown to play 4 quarters so laying points is a risky play IMO. Would prefer loking at the OVER 187. Basically the same total as when Wade missed the 1st meeting which finished 90-88(186 posted total). Heat offense looks better and they should get 95 or so points here but the question remains what does Charlotte score..think worst case 88-90...but that still leaves one short. I do think Miami will have REVENGE on there mind after the embarrassing game @ Charlotte when Riley called them out soon after.

Philly @ Milw

The question marks surround the availability of Mason and Mo Williams for Milw. The Sixers should have Korver back for action but a shooter being out so long would reasonable struggle for a game or two. You never know though. With te loss of your PG you would expect the offense to dropoff some. For the most part Philly has offensive issues and the Bucks have played some solid Defense at home to date. Like the Under 186.5 and may play the 1st H under 93 as well....Think this game doesnt get past 180....
As for a side its tough to pick with 2 starters possibly OUT for MILW. Philly has not been good on the road -7 was correct if they Bucks were at full strength. So with that I owuld have to pass. I do like the fact that MILW acknowledges this as a big game due to previous playing UP or DOWN to competition.

Atl @ Chi :

The Bulls return from a road trip and a loss on Sat and Sunday. I was pretty confident they would win on Sun but they played terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Not really sure what to make of either team at the moment but 181 seems real low...

Pacers @ Nuggets :

Denver is short big men and banged up with melo and AI supposedly needing some rest. I think you have to see DEN's play as subpar past 3 games and would have to fade them until they show improvement and get healthy. I cannot rely on past DEN beatings at home as an indication. Should be uptempo game. As much as thi sshould be a run N gun game w/o Kleiza and martin the Den offense isnt as highpowered. 218 is alot of points.....if the over is intrugiung probably prefer the 1st H over...

Seattle @ LAL :
While on the surface 1 looks alot of points remember that SEA has been blownout often on the road and couldnt cover 10 at home Vs SA.....You would think LAL looks to rebound after letting the SUNDAY game get away. Another thing to remember is that like PORT in previous years Sonics have shown to either lose ATS or win SU as a road dog. So if you dont think SEA wins here SU then it probably pays to pass on the points. Small lean on 1st H over cause there will be alot of shots taken here and LAL -11...However recently LAL has played low scoring 1st H and that is a concern so maybe the game over is better...

2007-11-26T19:14:00.001-05:00

Problem with typing my thoughts it leaves less time for decisions. Quick decision on the 140 total in USF was a pass...hating myself for that now as well as passing on the Davidson over...only played 1/2 unit on Iowa 1st H as well...added Arky State though....and last minute after seeing the Temple total drop to 134 played a 1/2 unit on the over...didnt finish the late games yet had to do NBA ....

NBA :

Under 194 or Under 95 1st H not sure what has better value...
NYK has scored mid 80's in 4 straight , 5 of 6 and 6 of 8. With only the games versus Pho and Sac seeing more...sort of self explatanory..Utah been scored mid 90's to a 102....but playing solid defense making it apoint to keep teams under 100 pt....so if NY wasnts to win defense most beon the menu cause the offense is struggling......Some chatter that the Utah line is soft but I disagree as I expected 5.5 or 6 and we opened at 5.5....NY has to show me some consistency and Utah typical struggles on the road as medium chalk...

2007-11-26T18:02:00.001-05:00

NCAAB :

like everyone out there trying to get a feel for some of these teams if not all. One thing that helps is I rely on determination of weak or strong lines combined with situational aspects....

Akron -4 -120: of course it went from -4.5 to -5.5 while I was typing

I think the sentiment with Akron is they aren't as good as years past. However we can't rely on the Alaska tournament to make this determination. They clearly didnt play well vs inferior competition but it was there first 3 games of the season. Now they have returned home and beat up on a cupcake squad. What has Temple done to date? Okay they beat BG as Pick tahnks in part to a huge second half where BG went cold. BG is a team with anew head coach off a 3-13 conference record who is not is the class of Akron..Hell Akron was -8.5 and -17.5 vs BG last season. Temple barely beat Marist a MAAC school , lost to Charleston and Providence in Hawaii. They have been traveling alot and at some point that will catch up to them....can Wood continue to play well and can Allen stay out of foul trouble...

So basically Akron has been tough at home , lost only 7 games last season , are facing a team who is on the upswing but not there yet and last if TEmple is a PK vs BG then shouldnt this be closer to 8 or so......?? Plus remember how Temple couldnt score vs providence late?? That would concern me vs a solid defensive squad....

Would have prefered the Under at 139 or better...thinking 71-63 game....so 136ish cuts it close..

Over 140 USF and FIU :{LEAN}

Would lean towards USF cause this is FU 1st quality opponent. Simply put I expect both teams to be in the 70s here and ....game should see 150's or better...USF should get to the line and I am hopefully they can combine for 70% from the lien despite high 60's avg to date...total drop has be looking at this more closely...

App St +6 :
Sure Davidson has revenge on its mind but getting revenge on the road isnt quite that easy. Especially when u have to win by 7 points on top of that. It seem sthat Davidson are the public darlings of the mid major ranks now. They hung with UNC in the opener after a great postseason last year. Problem is App State beat them on the road last year. App St has lost some qaulity players and Davidson is back seemingly in tack. However I think Davidson probably wins by 2-4 points in a close battle that Davidson pulls ahead in the final two minutes....thinking about the OVER 151 as well...

1st H Under and 1st H Iowa :

Simply put Wake's 1st true road game . Iowa could be tired after the Texas trip but its not a trip where they had to leave the country so I am not weighing that heavily. Iowa has offenive issues and if they play zone they force WF to shoot which has not been a strong point to date.....

Cant say I know a thing about Murray State or Ark St . However I think Murray State is about 6 pts better then E.ILL on a neutral court( ArK St last opponent). It appears Ark State is also about 6 points better then E.Ill on a neutral court..so I would make Murray St -1 on a neutral vs Ark St and ONLY -4.5 at home. They opened at -5.5 and went to -6.5 . So my guessestimates have this as a FAT Line but I have absolutely noknowledge to back it up and yet this line was driven higher.....this could be a public sentiment fade at +7 -120....not sure though a pure guess by me that this line is off....Ark St +7 -120...

Still working on later games.....GL

2007-11-26T12:56:00.000-05:00

What a great game to watch last night . I have to admit I really didn't see that coming. More so from the offensive standpoint though. I did think while Philly had some issues on defense if they hit hard( make NE know your there) and did not allow huge , quick passing plays they could make NE work for there points. I thought NE would be around 35 points but my concern was the Philly offense(10pts maybe?). I never thought Feeley could play so well. He made two huge mistakes that cost the game. The bright side is without his excellent play it never would have been a game.

It goes back to NE being a well oil machine and the rest of the league always trying to make something out of nothing. Like why throw that pass in the end zone ? You score you allow to much time for the NE offense. Why not continue to keep it small and grind it out? That's because most coaches and players get "lost" of situational play while the game is going on. The PATS simply do not. NE has played 5 opponents with defenses that hit hard enough to disrupt NE offense. SD , Dallas , Philly , Indy and maybe Cle. The Browns if not for bad turnovers played them MUCH closer then the final score. Think about Dallas led in the 3rd quarter but there secondary couldn't get it done , Indy led to start the 4th q , SD was never in it and Philly led in the 4th Q. NE will DESTROY inferior opponents but they are far from invincible. Plus you have the added motivation of being 3 TD Underdogs now...I think if Heap plays the Ravens if there defense is healthy can do the same. By the same I mean compete with NE....

MNF:

What a MNF game. The injury list is over flowing for these teams. The WEATHER sucks and Heinz Field not a great field to begin with is hosting its 3rd game since Friday night. They have put down new sod but it may be a moot point due to the rain , though the field is covered. We know Pitt will be minus two key players but in general there level of play should not drop much here. They pitched a shutout vs SEA @ home with there all-pro safety out and Holmes absence limits the er ability to stretch the field.

Miami :
1) John Beck starts @ QB in his 2nd career start on MNF no less...( more pressure and jitters). Last week he was 9 of 22 with 109 yds passing. The Phins had ONLY 8 plays of 10+ yards on offense and TWO of 20 + yds. They were 1 for 7 passing on 3rd down and 0 for 3 running for it. Beck did manage to gain 3 yds for a 1st Down on 3rd down early in the game( so 2 of 11). They clearly seem to have a tough time making plays on offense and Chatman who had 3 of the 10+ yd plays is OUT. Also Chatman a big back couldn't get short yardage 3rd downs on the ground so that is another era they will suffer.

2) Ronnie Brown done for the season was capably replaced by Jesse Chatman who will be absent tonight. That leaves Samkon Gado and former stud Ricky Williams who has not played in awhile and who hasn't been hit in how long?? Practiced one whole week with a new offensive system....just doesn't seem to be any positive in this situation. Especially cause there seem to be some expectations for Ricky Williams here cause he may get 20 touches....remember when Testaverde came in off the streets...there were NO EXPECTATIONS and he performed fairly well. That's a key difference.

3) Another LB done in Derrick Pope?? He did make the walk through yesterday and is in PITT supposedly. For the most part the Miami defense has held it together past 3 weeks though can you find 3 more struggling offenses then NYG , Buffalo and Philly having Donovan throw 2 costly picks only to be replaced by a QB who hadn't played this year.

4) With Miami WINLESS and a new young QB they will be trying very hard every week to WIN....

5) While the Miami defense played well...did it really ?? I didn't see the game last week. having three INTs inside Miami's 30 cost the Philly offense anywhere between 9 and 21 points ....on top of the 17 they scored....the second half Philly scored twice in four possessions. The last possession they basically up 10 pts milked the clock for 6 + minutes and gave Miami one final play....so they did what they had despite the boxscoe maybe not showing it...

6} While Pitt has smoked Balt , SF , and Buffalo at home while pitching a shutout vs Seattle people still seem to miss how good there defense can be. Yes they scored alot of points versus Balt but ONLY cause the Ravens offense is gross with McNair at QB and they had short after short field that day.....the browns managed a TD on the opening drive but little afterwards. The had a punt return for a TD , a kick return to the 5 yd line or so and INT deep in there own territory starting CLE at the 18 yd line...so keeping Ginn shut down is a key ...Teams in general though struggle to move the ball on vs the Pitt defense w/o help...The Cle game came after the brutal hitting Balt MNF game and after road games @ Denver and Cincy..so Pitt looked beat up heading into Cle and after surviving that game were flat @ NYJ who after all they were big favs over...

I dont think Pitt plays to its opponent as much as it just has a huge difference in play at home versus the road....they lost games late @ Denver , @ Arizona and @ NYJ...I wouldn't say they were beaten but they did lose.....

Now we have Pitt off a bad road loss on TV again. Monday Night has been good to them...I would say they have something to prove after the Jets loss and even NE struggle last night. The key though is the awful weather( and possible shit field conditions) that could neutralize alot of there dominance. How will Miami score ?? Last week they had a punt return and Ginn is dangerous and Pitt has shown special teams can be soft at times. They also had 4 shots at the 1 yd line and couldn't score....remember that AJ Feeley has long been in the Philly system and done this before...been great in relief of McNabb due to injury...John Beck doesn't fit that mold...so dont compare last night to here.....

I think Pitt should win 27-3 maybe 27-10...

Alot of points (-16) but I just didn't see anything from Miami last week to like them here. I was on SF cause they showed improvement vs STL falling basically a play short while showing there defense was still playing hard. They have an inconsistent offense which turns the ball over to much and settles for FGS often on long drives. There defense while solid is not a shut down defense....Pitts can be...Think about this the same Buffalo team that went down to Miami was blasted in Pitt as 10 pt dogs...at this point with Beck starting and Chatman OUT the Bills are probably a TD better on a neutral field( they were short favs in Miami) so now does -16 seem all that high.....???

If Pitt plays there "a" game and doesn't make mistakes they should easily cover the huge number.....one thing that NFL has taught me this year is that bad teams are bad this year week in and week out....

Right now all that is holding me back from Pitt is the weather and the playing field....if it was a normal day out I would be on the Steelers already...however the weather and field conditions are an unknown that can hurt Pitts ability to perform at peak performance and that's what you want when you have a big number..

2007-11-25T16:19:00.000-05:00

WOW! can you have worst LUCK??

Rams choke like I knew they would without Bulger. However the ball on the 4 yd line with 4 tries they cant get in. Inside the half yard line they fumble the snap....

Campbell throws NOT one BUT TWO picks inside the TB 25 in the final 5 minutes...

Losman throws a pick inside the red one down 22-14 in the final 1/2 of the 4th quarter....

At least fading CLE was just a stupid move.....

OAK and Minny win ouright.....

Mix in a Chi Bulls choke and AGGRAVATED is an UNDERSTATEMENT right now!

2007-11-25T11:30:00.000-05:00

NBA ...

Bulls +5.5 : Yesterday I had NYK in the afternoon delight. Today I flip back to da Bulls. Basically Chi wasruined by an awful 2nd quarter yesterday and won the OTHER 3 quaarters. They also made a late push but fell just short. The Raps are playing shorthanded with some key injuries and let one get away in Cle yesterday. Following the ones that got away in Dallas and vs GSW in the pas week. I think while Chi is on its last game of the trip they are desperate for a WIN. Deng should play and that is a HUGE offensive boost. Despite the long trip they havent had a horrible travel schedule with long rest before yesterdays game. Tor had a rough trip to Dallas , memphis and Cle playing 3 tough games...now 4th in 6 days with a short bench.. Chi plays defense and should wear on the home squad....not to mention CHI has some revenge for that embarrasment earlier.....

NFL:

Over 36.5 Jags -120( Mathis OUT @ CB)
Raiders +5
Skins +4 -120
Rams +4 -120
Texans +4 -120
Vikings +8 -120
Panthers +3 -125(small)
strong> Bills +10 -130

Still working.....GOOD LUCK

2007-11-25T02:46:00.000-05:00

NFL Thoughts :

Looking at the early starts the UNDERDOGS really stand out .

Buffalo Bills +8 :

Doesn't this spread look quite big ? I think I am in the minority of people who believed that last Sunday Buffalo had no shot in that game. For someone who hates to lay road chalk I didn't waiver at the -10 for the 1st Half. The Bills are a bend don't break type team in every sense. Facing a team NE who is loaded with offensive firepower and backed with a stud defense was a task they could not overcome. If you referenced the Dallas game there is one huge difference between Dallas and NE. That is NE NEVER EVER seems to beat itself. They don't make unforced errors. Why did Buffalo play Dallas tight and all you have to do is look at Tony Romo's play. The PATS are a well oil machined with a history of shutting down Lee Evans. How would Buffalo crack 14 points ??

Anyway that beating provides motivation for a 5-5 Buffalo team and creates negative public perception.

Lets remember that Jax has now lost Mike Peterson there self proclaimed defensive leader and possibly CB Rashean Mathis. This is addition to the loss of Marcus Stroud. Peterson loss puts another LB in his spot and puts a bench player in the other spot. Really creating 2 players in different positions then last week.

The Jags struggle vs the pass and flat out stop the run. Well the one thing Losman can do is throw deep balls to Lee Evans. If Mathis is OUT the advantage becomes even greater but still he figures to be less then 100%. Rivers looked like crap versus Indy then went for 300 yards vs Jax. So look for Buffalo to be able to put some points on the board here. Also note that Jags could be in look ahead mode with a game @ Indy the following week. This year Jags are 0-2 laying more then 7 and last year were 2-2 (0-2 as DD previous year). Not the greatest team laying big numbers sort of like how Carolina is. WHich is due to there history of being a solid defense who depends on running the ball.

Despite UNDER trends this seems like an OVER to me cause both defenses are overrated....something to consider could be the Bills team total...14 ??

Skins +3.5

Call me crazy but I don't see how TB in the eyes of oddsmakers is even or even slightly better then Wash? After all the Skins were -3 to Philly a few weeks ago , only +3 @ GB , -9 vs Zona and so on....now yes I will agree these were mostly bad lines I faded. They were off but not extremely off say with in 3 points of real value IMO.

Even with the Skins injuries I think this should be closer to -1.5 TB. After all Campbell has played TB as that was his 1st career start in 20-17 loss last year. The secondary is banged up but held up well outside of Springs performance in Dallas. Reportedly he just wasn't there mentally being in Dallas where his father is hospitalized among other things.

Outside of the Pats road game the Skins have been fairly solid in 4 road games and should have won in GB. Look at the QBs TB has defeated..Leftwich / Harrington , Warner , Kerry Collins and barely( actually lost to Quinn Gray ) , David Carr , Marc Bulger with bad ribs in a monsoon and Drew Brees early on as 5 pt home dogs.

Huge game for the 5-5 Skins and as maligned s the secondary is with injuries you have to take away one WR on TB and let Graham beat you..

Campbell has 5 TD vs 1 INT past 2 weeks and is spreading the ball around well. Thrash(still OUT) , McCardell , S.Moss , Randle El and Cooley all involved.

Rams +3.5

How can I not like a home dog playing a divisional game. First thing is the last meeting is way misleading. I believe Torry Holt dropped a pass that would have been a TD right after Sea's Burleson returned the 2nd H kickoff for a TD. They just fell apart after that. I wont knock the Rams for last week cause SF has been solid on defense nearly every week. Hasselback and Hackett don't look to be 100% and Alexander is still out. Rams are getting healthier each week and now Stussie returns. If not for Stephen Jackson re injuring himself in the CLE game they would be on a 3 game win streak.

Raiders +5 :

Lets see OAK's CBs are healthy again and they stink vs the run. Oh wait . LJ is OUT still and Holmes HAD TO retire! That leaves Kolby Smith with 10 carries and 17 yards as your featured back. Mix in the young Brodie Coyle and Dwayne Bowe and this is an awfully RAW offense.

People will get excited about the way the played INDY. Which was great but whats changed? They outplayed them and lost . Do they know how to win and can they kick FG's??? Serious questions to ask.

Culpepper found the deep touch again hooking up on some long plays. It's hard to believe but Oak has the better offense at this point and better kicker. To me the defenses are even but KC has home field but playing at Arrowhead is not such a big deal these days.....also look @ OAK schedule this may be the last winnable game for them.

Vikings +7.5

A game truly loaded with injuries. All world stud RB Peterson is almost definitely OUT . More intriguing to me is the fact Tony Richardson looks doubtful and that is quite the loss IMO. Also on defense Winfield figures not to play.

This would be more a play AGAINST NYG then on Minnesota. Sure they are a dome team in the cold but they won at CHI in 55 degree weather should be low 40s here. NYG will be w/o Ward and Jacobs at RB leaving Droughns who hasn't looked great in awhile. Plax has disappeared the past 4 games and to his actions are telling me his ankle is slowly getting worse if anything. Last 4 games he has no TDS and that's the way to beat Minny by throwing deep. NYG also lost Kiwaunka last week....

Texans +3.5

Now that HOUSTON is healthy offensively they to me are the equivalent of CLE. However I see a Browns team off 3 straight WARS and a defense continually losing bodies. They had the comeback versus Seattle in OT , the battle @ Pitt , followed by one of the luckiest wins in NFL history last week @ Balt. When Houston has had a healthy AJ and Schaub they have looked good. Just think this is the perfect situation where the lucky breaks catch up to them as the should have lost in STL a month ago as well.

The other games I don't see how we can look at Cincy or New Orleans. Tenny might have haynesworth back and he really seems to be the key to the defense. Cincy has banged WRs in CJ , Housmanzadeh and G.Holt. That's not a good sign. Tenny is definitely the better team if you focus on the fact that Cincy has just 3 wins vs Balt twice and NYJ and were smoked by Arizona !!! With the Saints Reggie Bush isn't looked so good health wise. The fact that Testaverde is probably OUT doesn't help BUT CAROLINA won in NO with Carr and Moore already. Some how the Panthers offense actually showed some life last week. The defense hasn't been that bad and if the offense would just protect the ball it would help the Panther defense out. Which by the way Caroina still looking for HOME WIN #1 and this looks like a great spot...so lean CAR and even Ten slightly

Later ....

49ers +10.5

The Niner offense is a concern but I think Dilfer is progressing and they almost pulled one out last week. Who is Zona to lay 10 points to anyone?? Sure if they limit SF to 10 or less points they can cover but I think SF could suprise. Some of which is due to Warner's propensity to fumble and make negative plays.

Last 7 meetings Zona 4-3 with 3 FG losses so usually competitive games.

Ravens @ SD

Tough game because BALT could show up flat here and if there defense isnt up to par then it could be ugly. We know Balt lost Pryce again and there CB situation is question mark. Heap and Williams appear OUT again. I think Boller gives them a much better chance of competing but he is mistake prone.

SD defense will make it hard on McGahee and leave it to Boller. Huge game for SD

Bears -1

Right now I cant be excited about Den play past 2 weeks. It has been better but I dont think they are better then Chi. The Bears I thought played well in Sea considering it was there second trip out there in as many weeks. Grossman playing decent and that could be a plus....like fading DEN off a MNF win especially when they allowed 28 1st downs and 400+ yards.......

2007-11-14T12:51:00.000-05:00

NCAAF :

Akron travels to Miami - Ohio. Looking at this line can't see why Miami-Ohio is such big favs. Last game they couldnt cover -6.5 versus Buffalo who is a shade worse then Akron( despite defeating Akron). Akron has had struggles on the road scoring and there defense has been fairly poor. Not a good sign. On the other hand what has Miami Ohio done at home ? Sneak by Syracuse 17-14 blowout a bad Bowling Green team that they were actually home dogs versus , hang on vs Buffalo due to some quick , long TDs? Besides there poor road play what scares me about Miami Ohio is this is there 3rd game in 2 weeks and second game since Miami played there last. At home Miami has actually stopped the run 2.8 YPC which means the passing duo( QB and stud WR) must get it done @ Akron . Since I should have trusted my 'capping' yesterday and played ball State cause the line was way short opened -5.5 should have been at least -8.5 ...today I think we should have seen something like -5 and we opened at -9....now 7.5.....

NBA:

Indiana @ Wash : Last game Arenas seemed to focus on getting his teammates involved rather then try and dominant when he doesnt feel right. That 's a good sign and really why Deshawn Stevenson doesnt get an expanded role in the offense I'll never know. Since Ike Diogu has gone down INDY has looked like carp and gone 0-4 , nmere coicidence ?? Since the opener Indy has returned Murphy and S.Williams. Just like the opener we should see a TON of FT attempts and 3 PT attempts. It's hard to say but playing on REST right now could be huge for WASH. They had rest @ NJ and came out on fire and played well @ ATL . Now Boston is a world beater right now and despite some rest it was off an OT opener. Would have expected -4.5 here so based on a fat line I have to lean Indy but think WASH wins.

Char @ AtL: The Bobcats knocked down some jumpers last night and smoked Miami. Here we have two teams who tend to get low 70 something shots per game and about low 20 Ft attempts. So expecting 94-88 type game....1st H Under and Under 188....however what I am thinking is Charlotte finally got the offense going last night and it may carry over....thats holding me back..

NJ @ Boston : Like Bostons defense to date but there offense sputtered some last nite. Real low total but I dont think NJ cracks 85 here and not sure Bos covers...

Seattle @ Miami : Could be real interesting if Swift and Kurt Thomas are OUT . That would leave COllison at center to guard SHAQ...Ridinour also gametime decision putting West or Watson at the point. SEA has depth but would need alot from Durant , Green and Wally Z here....Have to think after yesterdat that even Miami gets a 100 pts here so thinking over but cant lay -6 with this team no matter how bad Seattle looked yesterday...

Memphis @ Milw: On one hand Mem was a big home dog at home vs Houston last night and played hard to pull out the upset. I hate when you switch venues( home to road) and have basically the same number ....I do think we could be giving MILW to much credit ofr there drubbings at home as DOGGIES....Thinking Over 206 here as well . Only concern is low scoring outputs from Tor and Chi in MILW...but MILW should score alot here...

Philly @ NO : Hornets LUCKED Out in NJ and now play 7th game in 9 days all in different venues....such a tough spot (again) . Do they take Philly lightily here? Not sure I am ready to lay 9 points here...

Sac @ Minny : Kings get back Artest which is huge defensively and should be big offensively but you never know. DEFENSE tends to be a given. Minny could be without Greg Buckner and Craig Smith but SEA is waiting on Kenny Thomas and Brad Miller as well. Depends onhow the INJURIES shake out but thinking UNDER ...

Lakers @ Houston : LA struggled in SA and Houston is a notch below the Spurs. If not for HOU playing 3rd in 4 days I would have been on the home squad. Remember opening night ? Okay Odom is back but people were running to lay 3,4,5,6 points with HOU @ LAL!!! If not for a miracle to 2 minute run to end it the Lakers had trailed by DDs for the most part......hate LAL UNDERS but looking at that here.

Por @ Den : The Nuggets are smoking HOT winning 3 straight blowouts. However Portalnd isnt far behind scrapping out wins vs Dallas and Det. Think DEN rolls here ..

NYK @LAC : Injury shuffle ...Mobley is DOUBTFUL , Randolph is DOUBTFUL , QRichardson is ?? , Marbury appears to be playing , M.Collins is probable , Balkman is questionable ....lots of talent on the sidelines....expecting Knicks to play hard and keep it close if not WIN SU and think its played in the 90s so UNDER

Det @ GSW : Rough spot for DET who hasnt looked especially good. GSW playing better losing tough ones to Cle and Dallas. The GSW bench is a concrn but DET also got banged up last night ..have to take this home dog off so much rest vs a veteran DET team who could be flat here..1st H over cause GSW lack of bench and fatigue on both sides scares me ....

Thinking ( not plays ):
GSW +3 -120 and ML
NYK +8 and ML(value)
Den -10
Houston -6.5 ( 3rd in 4 days a concern)

Totals :
1st H Over GSW ( long rest scares me for GSW in some ways)
Under LAC 198
Under 198.5 Houston
Under 193 Minnesota ( Injuries??)
Over 206 Memphis
Over 191 Miami or team over Miami
Under 182 Boston
Under 187.5 Atlanta

2007-11-13T19:39:00.000-05:00

NBA :

Thoughts are :

Orl 1st H and Under then Seattle 2nd H and Over
Ind +7 ( 1st H over then 2nd H Under)
Houston +7 -120 and Over 200 -120
Dallas -7 1st H and Under 97 , Under 191
Lakers +8 and Under 99 1st H
(thinking about the late ones still)

Obviously the 7 pm starts are under way so some of my thoughts arent helpful . They are however followed up by 2nd H thoughts which might be. The italics are the ones I played so far.

So far no CBB...

NHL :
Fla +150
Tor -120 also Over 6

CFB
Toledo ML +250
Over 71

GL

2007-11-13T16:07:00.000-05:00

Looking at this game in the MAC ....

Toledo is a team you will probably have to breakdown rather then take at face value. They started the season with Clint Cochran as there QB but that didnt last long. They lost at home to Purdue in the opener and traveled to CMU. They lost a shootout at CMU BUT Soph Aaron Opelt known more as a runner wound up 25/41 334yds and 2 TDs(9c 17 yds TD). They lost @ Kansas then won a squeaker at home to Iowa State. The thing about the out of conference teams they played is there defenses were not that bad . Ball State faced Nebraska and Navy early on who are absolutely awful( disgrace may be better phrasing) on defense. Recently they did face Illinois and Indiana and guess what they didn't score as much and after a slow start IU torched them. They did a nice job versus Illinois but remember they got a PICK 6 for 7 of there 17 points and Juice Williams didnt pass well that day.

Back to Toledo. They West Michigan game again MISLEADING. They were up 7-0 and about to go 14-0 when Opalt was picked in the end zone. Which in 5 starts vs MAC teams is his ONLY INT! In fact in the other 4 starts he has 9 TDs and 3 rushing TDS against no INTS. He also has been sacked just 3 times in his MAC starts and two were in the 1st game vs CMU. Now granted most of this was done at HOME so how heavy can we weigh this?? Back to the WMU game. The INT flipped momentum and fueled WMU. In the midst of there rally Opelt was injured midway through the 2nd Quarter and was done for the day. After restoring some momentum Parmalee fumbled the opening kick of the 2nd H and later Cochran in relief was injured. Seems like a day destined to NOT b Toledo's.

After the WMU game they used true Freshman DJ Lenahan for starts against Liberty and @ Buffalo. So lets be realistic how many teams will look good with a 3rd string true freshman and a poor defense ?? Not many. Opalt returned vs Ohio U and has led them to 3 straight wins. In the 4 completed MAC games his numbers are 1200yds 9TDS and 52 yds rushing and 3 TDs!! With no INTERCEPTIONS!

Looking at there 3 games on the road which where they supposed to win? The game @ CMU they were just switching QBs and wer only 3 pt dogs to a real solid CMU team who blasted Ball State. That line was way off at -12 considering the previous week they were only -14 to Buffalo! CMU is 5-0 in conference ! Huge difference in the teams.

Looking at Ball State they LOST at home to Miami Ohio and Ball State in conference. They beat West Kentucky and Buffalo at home nothing exciting. They squeaked by at West Michigan on a late TD and stomped EMU away. There claim to fame is there 4 out of conference games. The Neb game was also after the USC game so that has to play into NEB performance. They have shown they can hang around with teams who are weak defensively and Illini case inconsistent on offense. Toledo has not had the opportunity to show that due to injuries at QB.

My feeling is Ball State struggles vs the pass and will face a tough task with Parmalee and Collins running it . How will they stop Toledo's offense ?? How will Toledo slow Nate Davis ?? With only 9 sacks they dont pressure the QB at all. Even with the total soaring to 69 from 64 you have to like the OVER here. You have prolific offenses versus defenses who cant get off the field. With high totals its all about execution. If they dont give away points or settle for FGs deep inside the red zone we see at least 73 points IMO....if they do then 10 TDs is alot ! This is a huge game with both teams at 5-5 fighting for Bowl spots and Toledo has a nice history ON TV much of it probably at the Glass Bowl though. CMU vs MAC teams have scored 27 , 38 , 49 , 38 and only 13 in the opener.

Right now my problem is I think they may have opened this game SHORT at -5.5 . It now has been bought up to -7 though. Was thinking more like -8 .

My thoughts are OVER 69 ( expect at least 73 pts in this game)Always check weather with huge totals...

For a side I feel that if Ball State wins they do it by 10 + so if you like Toledo better to take the ML....

GL

2007-11-12T21:51:00.000-05:00

Worst PUSH EVER ! I can't believe NJ blew that game! You know it's bad when you get a 3 and 1 for the tie with a minute left then miss 2 FTs !!! Better then a loss but they kicked ass in the 2nd H and were playing a team in the midst of a 5 in 7 stretch!

2007-11-12T16:03:00.000-05:00

NFL

The key to deciphering this game appears to be in the weather report. Looks like heavy rain producing sloppy conditions and the possibility of high wind gusts that would hurt the passing game and kicks ( whether kickoffs , punts or FG's). Side not e Coach Nolan 's father passed away and that may give the team further incdentive to win here. On top of there season being on the line.

If Seattle is unable to pass due to the weather and Frank Gore is healthy I would think SF +9 or +10 is very inviting. Gore tore up the Hawks last year and was solid in the 1st meeting this season. Problem with the 1st meeting was it became a real easy game when Smith went out cause Dilfer is a sitting duck back there. Where A.Smith has some mobility. They traveled to ATL w/o Gore and almost beat the Falcons. Which is not particularily impressive except it shows they are still playing hard and can sneak up on a team . Seattle will be w/o Alexander , Pollard and Branch which I think hampers there big play ability even further. On defense Hill and Kearney are questionable.

There is just not much to talk about here....if the weather is as bad as reported I would rather take a 1st H under rather then a game under. As well as SF 1st H +6....

2007-11-12T14:36:00.000-05:00

MONDAY NBA Thoughts

Hornets @ NJN :

It's seems fairly obvious that Vince Carter will NOT be playing tonight. The real issue for me is this..this will be the Hornets 5th game in 7 days , a Back 2 Back spot and they started by traveling WEST , then returned home and went NorthEast ! Honestly , I thought that yesterday would be a problem spot for them in Philly since the Sixers had fought hard at home vs Tor , NJN and Charlotte while defeating the misera-BULLS in Chicago. Clearly I was mistaken. Though Philly came out strong but faded when the second unit hit the floor and could not score in the 2nd quarter while NO reigned threes! What was more relevant probably was the fact they were off a 2 game losing streak and if they played poorly would have posible lost 4 straight with this game. Looking at the schedule NO has won nice games @ denver and @ LAL but those teams are inconsistent and would not context them as high quality wins . After that they beat Port and Sac at home both teams who will win few road games , lost @ Portland in a tough travel spot and lost at home vs SA. Then they beat up on the offensively challenged Sixers.

You can bet that NJ will look to bounce back here for 3 reasons. First is they billed themselves as a TRIO (Carter , Kidd , RJ) just like the media has Boston (KG , Pierce and "Jesus"). I believe there EGOS were bruised in that loss. Second is all good teams like to step it up when a STAR player is OUT. This being his forst absence provides a great opportunity for NJ to rise to the occasion. Third is NO being a quality team defeating them adds some luster to there W/L rap sheet. It's incentive to prove themselves even further and NJ has lost by once past few years vs NO. When both RJ and Kristic were out but Carter did go off that night 46!

Situational speaking I think it all points to NJ as they have remained HOME really for the entire season except a quick ride down to Philly. I think we can agree Vince Carter had struggled to date espite a good showing vs Boston. He seems willing to take alot of jumpers and threes instead of attacking the rim. Antoine Wright has looked solid in limited minutes. Sean Williams opened some eyes versus Boston . While they havent shown it NJ has upgraded the bench and Boston Nachbar should benefit in increased minutes as well. Last night you could have had an 191 UNDER in Philly , so here 185 seems pretty tight. Possible 1st H under and 2nd H over .?

CLE @ DEN

Real interesting matchup : Melo vs Lebron , Cavs winding down a long west coast swing playing 5th in 7 days BUT Nuggs return home after an East Coast swing also playing 5th in 7 days! Denver returns home after two good performances to close the trip after a lackluster start in NYK and Boston. While Cle 3-2 on the trip lost at the buzzer in Utah and folded late in Phoenix. All in all a fairly solid trip.

I think you could argue alot of things here. First that Cle is tired here. Well every game on the trip has been tough and down to the wire but they still come out the next game w/o looking drained. Interesting was Big Z playing a season high in minutes and LeBron a season low. Seems like smart coaching to me if it was planned( King James did have foul trouble). You figure the BIG guy is sort of limited here with so much running up and down the court while you would want LeBron fresher. On the other hand maybe Z feels great cause he sure is playing alot more minutes then he has past few years..right now about 5 or 6 more on avg per game.

You would think DEN carries the momentum over from there 25 pt comeback @ Indiana but it could leave them drained. That was a 4th in 5th spot for them and both they and Pho shined in that spot as small road chalk on Saturday. Interesting to see how DEN holds up cause Nene and Atkins are OUT for awhile now. Putting some pressure on Kleiza , Diawara , Kenyon Martin returning from injury playing about 20 minutes per , JR Smith to show more consistency .

The Cavs BENCH has been scary ! HUGE UNDER THE RADAR INJURY was Sasha Pavlovic leaving early yesterday and not returning ! That leaves Devin Brown (playing real well) , Damon Jones and Ira Newble off the bench if he cant go.

This is also the highest total bewteen these two teams. With Hughes back they tend to play games in the 90's. Denver has actually played some defense lately. really interested in Pavlovic's injury status. This could get ugly...they havent had a correct line on a CLE game all trip....-6 @ Sac after +9 @ Utah , PK @ LAC w/o Mobley?? I owuld have guess more like 4.5 to 5.5 here but who knows....

Sac @ Utah :

I think the Kings are going to have issues on the road till they get Artest and Bibby back. They played fairly well at home with comeback wins vs Minny and Seattle again two teams who simply wont win many road games. Offense will be a challenge if you contain Kevin Martin. I would expect 88-94 points here for Sac. With how Utah looked vs Memphis they could wax Sac here especially since Ron Artest is back on WED. Basically looking at the UNDER 206 , Kings team UNDER , 1st H Utah ...I could be mistaken but on the road Sac looks overmatched....nice work by Salmons and garcia so far but Miller is struggling and the rest of the guys are limited offensively though Beno Udrih may help the second unit.

2007-11-11T17:57:00.000-05:00

NBA :

Sixers +3 or ML

I see this as a bad spot ofr NO. The Hornets had a 3 game West Coast swing then came home to play SA but now back to the road @ Philly! All while has sat home and battled NJ and Tor in narrow defeats and spanked Char. Philly plays hard and plays defense.....

Also went Ov 186 Charlotte cause I think Rockets will score at will...

2007-11-11T11:15:00.000-05:00

NFL Sunday :

Phins +3 -120 or +125 ML:

Bills walk into this game favored for the 1st time all season. While Miami has had a week off to start over. Yes , start over. Thats what Jason Taylor was talking about. How this BYE came at the right time to put the 1st Half of the season behind them. He said something to the effect no one remembers the Phins 2 years ago starting 3-7 cause they ended 6-0 ! What I am getting expect a great effort to get that 1st WIN. The D gets Vonnie Holliday back .

Buffalo has 3 players QUESTIONABLE in J.Reed @ WR , A.Schoebel @ DE , and DiGiorgio @ LB. Having these guys at less then 100% is huge and if any miss that further hurts a depleted team. Bills owned the 4th quarter last week so that final is misleading in some ways( trailed with 6 to play and still settling for FGS with 4. ).

Game should be a PKem. Bills have shown the ability to hang with teams at home. Outside of watching NJY self destruct a few backs there road skills have be untested. If Miami doesnt beat themselves they will win.

Steelers -9.5 and Under 47:

Cleveland let it all hang out last week vs Seattle. They have some OL issues with McKinney OUT and Steinbach questionable. They havent had much of a ground game this season and they probably wont be able to run on Pitt. That means they will have to throw. While DA has been excellent this year its still PITT. Look at the PITT defense at home and go back to my Monday post. Expect 14-17 Browns points here. Cle cant stop the run at all and expect Willie Parker to open it up for Big Ben. Think Pitt gets 27-28 here as they play keep away from DA and the Browns passing attack.

Bottomline is people still dont believe in PITT!!!!

Jags +5 ( ML as well)

Haynesworth OUT

Tenny is built on defense and running the ball. Well Jax can stop the run but not the pass. So thats a huge plus. Even with Gray at QB this game is a coin flip and Jags have revenge after letting one slip away at home vs Tenny. For me more about discrediting the favorite then playing the dog...Line should be -1.5 with Garrard..look at who TEnny has beat at home Car , Atl and Oakland recently!!!

Eagles +3 or ML

Skins keeping winning by the skin of there teeth. This is the same EAGLE team that went to Minny and won 2 weeks ago. Dallas is very good and high powered offense exactly what WASH is not ! The Eagles are tough against the run and this is a must win game for them. Philly can wing it and Skins corners are banged up.

Rams +10.5 and 46 :
Key Saints defenders Grant and Young OUT! Which tells me that NO is taking this game lightily . Second it takes away alot of pressure on the Rams OL. The rams looked fine with Stephen Jackson in there two weeks ago but it was two failed 4th and 1 with Leonard that cost the game. These offense will SCORE!

Lean to :
ATL +3.5 due to the fact ATL has played better away and so has Carolina. Fortunately for ATL they are AWAY this week. Should be a DEFENSIVE battle. Panthers aredesperate for a win but Matt Moore ..?? I think he is okay but tough to envision him covering a spread ...

KC -3 cause DEN is a mess. Maybe they bounce back but Cutler and Henry are banged up. The defense with Lynch OUT is very bad. KC might not have LJ but it has a defense at least and a huge home field bias....probably OVER here...

GB-5.5 : line is sinking but think GB is heating up and Vikes outdoors?? If miiny cant run can Bollinger help them out ?? Favre vs a weak secondary whose best player has a bad hammy.....

2007-11-09T16:30:00.000-05:00

NBA Comments :

Toronto -2 : This MAY be a rare occassion when the books opened this line wrong. The Sixers have battled in every game losing two games they had chances to win. WHile Tor has been FLAT since the OT loss at home to Boston. Since then getting bombed in Milw then the next night vs ORL.

Why was this line wrong? First Philly was only -4 vs Char with Felton out and +2.5 vs NJN. Now Tor already beat Philly at home laying -7 and smoked NJ at Continental Airlines catching 3 points...basically we know Tor is better then Philly and even better then NJ at this point so you would expect the Tor line to be similiar to that of the NJ @ Philly game. Philly is strong on the glass with Evans , Iggy and Dalembert. A ket to watch is Philly getting 30 Fts per while Tor only allows 20. Philly shooting %s arent very good at the moment and TOR is an offensive FUNK. To me that translates into an UNDER 188. Tor 95-90 ??

Char -1.5 : Hard to back CHAR after 2 disgusting performances. However with Ike Diougu and Daniels OUT , O'Neal , Williams and Murphy working themselves into game shape the damaged Cats have the edge at home. Felton SHOULD play but I am not certain. If he does might have to get involved in O195.

Hawks +8.5 / UND 193 : Really like A-T-L here. . Is Boston now better then DET cause they smoked Den and Wash at home , two teams who DONT play any defense?? Enter the athletic A-T-L Squad. They battled both NJ and DET on the road . UPSET Dallas and PHO at home . Losing late but leading nearly the enter way @ DET. Looks like another 95-90 game.

NYK : Tough spot for ORL 4th straight away winning the 1st three and having PHO tmrw at home (4th in 5 days). Like NY here but not crazy about it.....interested to see how both teams look matchuped on the floor. Thinking UNDER cause I had expected closer to 193 here rather then 201. Problem with that is getting NYK defensive effort out of my mind

Under 196 Suns : Miami is looking to slow the pace and 90 points seems like alot to ask. Suns offense hasnt clicked yet outside of Char turrning the ball over to much vs them. Look at prior meetings in Miami...unfortunately those totals were much higher...Think I owuld take the 8 but Miami can only contend for One half IMO....

Den -2.5 : Simply cause even playing 3rd in 4 days the Nuggets have shown flashes. Wash jumped out to a huge lead and faded rather quickly. They did manage to keep it a game late but that tough loss could wear on them here . The big three scored all the points and played 40+ minutes. Denver showed some life in the 2nd H after the embarrassing 1st H @ Boston. Arenas clearly is less then 100% .

Det -8 : Mobley is OUT , Knight is IN and Maggette & Patterson are gametime decisions. Piston starters did lay heavy minutes but they have a better bench then LAC. They also had 3 days off before yesterday and start a West Coast swing after this. DET won by 18 twice last season . Big game for DET IMO facing a 4-0 LAC team that is depleted. UND 192.5 for sure.....

Hornets +3.5 : Always like my Home dogs...had this at -2 but maybe the bad loss @ PORT inflates it.

Bucks +9 : Could be a flat spot for Houston after battles with Dallas and Houston. I am concerned cause HOU has played solid ball and MILW hasnt played well in its 2 road games...slight lean to the dog

Not sure about the later schedule though like the Kings .....

BOL

2007-11-08T17:48:00.000-05:00

NBA:

Bulls :

Again we have a value play here. I think if Chicago didnt crap away 3 games ( NJN , Milw , and LAC) then you have somewhere around -3 here. Even with this 0-4 start this probably should be -1.5 CHI. First the Bulls went 3-1 reg season vs DET with a 2 pt loss. Same Bulls team really while DET flipped Webber for Hayes. Not literally or even position wise but in theory. Maxiell is getting more minutes but CHI pulss Forwards out there ass....

If Mobley was the key to LAC late run to close out CHI THEN Rip Hamilton should be someone Hinrich can physically handle.

DET impressive win was the B2B @ Orlando. They were okay versus a bad Miami team and when Rip returned they barely beat ATL. So DET isnt impressing me all that much. Chi has lost twice as BIG chalk at HOME to medicore Philly and LAC. That is shocking to some degree no matter what you think of the team. While playing ONLY 1 Half @ both Milw and NJN. They simply have not played 48 minutes of BB.

I think it will be a close game and due to that it makes the OVER 182 attractive rather then the UNDER. Late FTs could push this over the number. SO gonna watch the 1st H tempo to see if there is value.

Not sure about any NCAAF , other NBA or NHL yet...

2007-11-07T16:50:00.000-05:00

Not really the Night I was looking for last night. I think I have discovered the longer I look at the games the worse my performance is. For me i think its better to just take a couple of hours and weed through the stuff later in the day then go through games over and over again. Plus alot of things just look good at the last moment. Plays I may lean to and something just stands out close to tip. Such as NJN -2 1st H....anyway...

Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.

I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .

Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!

Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.

Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):

The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.

Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.

So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.

-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).

I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)

Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....

Pho @ ATL :

Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.

Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?

LAC @ INDY :

If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.

Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....

DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.

Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....

Miami @ Spurs :

I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.

memphis @ Seattle :

Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!

Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.

I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .

Cle @ Utah :

I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....

Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???

Hornets @ Blazers :

Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...

These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)

Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....

THOUGHTS :

Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)

GL

2007-11-06T19:01:00.000-05:00

Tonight:

West Michigan (+3.5) or (+135)
Under 64 (...played it because of the weather situation knowing it would drop further (opened 67) may middle.)

Bobcats +4.5
Knicks +4 (-120)
Und 191 Milw

Leans: NJN -2 1st H and over 189 NJN

Parlay :
Over 5 -130 NYI , West Michigan +3 , Bobcats +4 & Bulls -8.5

2007-11-06T17:42:00.000-05:00

Added : 4 team Parlay :

West Michigan (+3) , Islanders Over 5 -130 , Charlotte +4.5 and Bulls -8.5 ( Not allowed to buy 1/2's otherwise I would have!!!!!!!!)

NBA:

Bobcats +5 (-120) :

PLAYED

Looks like Amare doesnt play here IMO. He says he is gametime decision then talks about how there isnt much to play for in NOV and wants consistency. So to me that says if I dont feel 100% then I am not risking it. Right now the Suns are trying to figure it out as a team IMO. The past 2 games they have been badly out rebounded and opposing forwards seem to be having there way offensively. Enter Emeka Okefor. There best hope is put him on the FT line. They arent shooting the 3 pt ball well yet but still taking a ton. There FT % is only 68% and they tend to only get around 20 attempts a game.

Kinda split bewteen the 1st H +2 or game line. I say that cause Suns have started slow in all games with big comebacks in the 4th vs Sonics and Cavs. Nice value at about 2 to 1 on the ML .

As I have said I felt the TOTAL is tough. I dont see how Suns really do beter then 105 here...would guess it lands withing 6 points of the number either way...

While the Hawks have played well and look attractive they are off a tough LOSS and are a young team. So you don't know how they will play here till tip and NJN is off that horrible beating by the Raptors. NJ seems to be good at jumping out to big 1st half leads then wilting in the 2nd H. So I will sit tight till HALFTIME on that game. Unless I get a sac and play NJN 1st H -2. While I dont see a high scoring affair I do like how NJ gets to the FT line. Due to that I lean OVER as I think it sneaks ov 189...like 99-93 game...

Knicks +4 (-120)

Not a believer in DENVER. You have to like there talent but with AI playing the point he has looked bad on offense past 2 games. No real special insight here other then I think NY plays hard and keeps it a game. Which might make the 1st H a better option due to there ability to fold in the 4th quarter for oh 15 years NOW! My concerns for NY are Randolph already proving to be a BLACK HOLE and little to speak of from Q. Richardson to date...

8PM :
Only interested in the UNDER 191 or 1st H Under @ MILW. Still looking at that game...

2007-11-06T11:51:00.001-05:00

We know I see value in WMU tonight. The weather situation in my opinion would definetly hurt CMU more then WMU.

Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).

Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.

Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .

While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.

They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....

Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL

2007-11-06T00:12:00.000-05:00

Preliminary Early look....

Western Michigan ML

I am BIG on playing what I deem as bad lines. In one sense I understand why this CMU team is favored but when I step back and look at the whole picture I think its a mistake. CMU has played some tough opponents and because of that I think they were somewhat undervalued against teams they were equal and slightily better then. Favored just 3 times each by 3 points. Only -3 at home vs Toledo( Cochran was out ) and No.Ill. Both easy wins but because of timing they were soft lines ( after loss @ KU and home loss vs ND State). CMU is better then these teams just NOT significantly better but -3 denotes that the difference is basically HOME FIELD advantage. So what i am saying is you got CMU cheap on those days. Last week with Edelman OUT they were just -3 to Kent St who isnt as good as WMU to begin with. They faced a QB making his first career start who happened to be a FRESHMAN! They also caught Ball State at a great time cause due to 4 startight good games by Ball State they caught 12 points !

CMU DEFENSE is BAD! Why would you lay points with a BAD defene playing on the road? Factor in home team is 9-1 last 10 in the series with CMU not winning @ WMU in quite awhile. What further creates VALUE is the fact WMU looked like SHIT @ EMU on 10/27 scoring on just a safety. Not to be lost is while they played like shit they were 6 pt road favs...so it was an UPSET.

WMU has two tough losses at home vs Ball State in the last minute and vs Akron on a kick return to end the game. WMU also has a fairly decent defense and certainly the better of the two teams. You can throw on the WMU defense though as Ball State and Akron have shown. Hiller has played well at times this season and as I said CMU defense has allowed 44 to NDTS , 32 to a freshman @ Kent State , and 70 @ Clemson.

It's funny cause just like the CMU lines seemed OFF all season so have WMU's. They have lost 3 times SU as favs to Indiana at home -1.5 , Akron at home -9.5 , @ EMU -6 . Which should tell you that WMU has NOT meet expectations and was supposed to better then they showed to date. Also the lone games they were dogged were +1 @ Toledo with Cochran starting which they rolled and PK at home vs Ball State which they lost on a TD in the final minute!

Personally I feel this should have been a PK but with WMU off such a tough loss then no one would have selected them. Remember the EMU game they simply played like shit but they werent exactly beat by EMU they beatthemselves. HUGE DIFFERENCE....."Western Michigan (3-6, 2-3) was hampered throughout the day by turnovers. The Broncos, who came in averaging more than 30 points a game, fumbled twice inside the Eastern Michigan 20, including once on the goal line. The Eagles also intercepted three passes"

3-2 game @ Half , 9-2 early 4th q...chalk it up as a bad DAY!It happens .

PLAY: Western Michigan ML...

Now this looks like an OVER but I have to wait and see cause we all know how UNDERS hit in mid week games.....GL

2007-11-05T22:28:00.000-05:00

It is ONLY Halftime but folks I said it before start realizing how GOOD this PITT team is. While you are adjusting for that do the same for how bad BALT is. It's not the Ravens fault. You have both your starting corners out in bad weather no less. How many teams can deal with that in the NFL?? That means in todays NON DEPTH NFL due to the cap your starting #3 , #4 and #5 corners! A QB with a groin issue on a WET field whose OL hasnt been playing together because of injuries.....

Always remember REALITY versus PERCEPTION! I make many mistakes giving bad team credit but I feel like I saw this one coming.....

Lets hope the STEELERS finish it off. I am actually really tempted to play PITT PK 2nd H.....

Pitt is for real....BOL all!

2007-11-05T11:58:00.000-05:00

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Ravens @ Steelers

Looking at this game I think to much emphasis is being put on what BALT has done compared to what BALT is doing this season. The same can be said for PITT. This is NOT the 13-3 Ravens of last year and this is not the banged up OL , banged up Big Ben , .500 Steeler team of last season. The Ravens schedule is a joke to date..Rams , Jets and Cards at home ?? While Pitt has blasted its inferior opponents at home in Buff , SF and Seattle. Which are teams that balt struggled with and to be honest I think Seattle is better then any team BALT played . They only won 21-0 w/o Ward or Polamalu.

What we have here is a Raven team who is lucky to be 1-3 on the road this season. They lost @ Cincy , @ Cle and @ Buffalo while winning by two @ SF. Now is any of those teams remotely as solid as PITT especially on the defensive side of the ball?? NO. So even with the return of McNair who IMO is not much of an upgrade over Boller , possible OL help for Terry and Ogden who are probably still less then 100% ( factor in the young players on the OL in a tough venue ) , Heaps availability but hamstring woes and no Wilcox, oh and they are w/o there 2 strating corners ! So they are using there 3,4 and 5 corners tonite!! Thats real dangerous with PITT relying more and more on the passing game and executing very nicely in it. The big return for BALT is Heap by far. If he is himself he is a huge weapon. If not the offense really doesnt improve much IMO.

The Raven pass rush may get a boost from Trevor Pryce being available. However talk about last year and think NO Adelius Thomas , Chris McAllister , Samari Rolle and a limited Trevor Pryce. Big difference in Ravens stout defense IMO.

At home Pitt has allowed just 1 4th quarter TD vs SF in 3 games!!! On the road Balt has scored two 2nd Half TDS @ Buffalo, 3 FG's @ SF , a 4th quarter TD @ Cle with 2 FG's and 13 points on offense vs Cincy (plus a defensive score). You know that Pitt can STOP the run so McGahee will be in for a tough one. So willl Wille Parker for that matter but as I said Pitt is a pass first offense and that will show tonite. You look at last week and the Steelers were unstoppable @ Cincy outside of 1 mistake INT near the end zone for Ben. Sure Pitt has had minor hiccups @ Zona and @ Den. However expectations were way to high in those games. people expected PITT to just show up and blow them out.

Basically what makes us believe that BALT's offense will do any better then it has in 4 previous road games? Here it would be versus a TOUGHER defense as well. So how does Balt break 14 points ( really 10 points)?? I dont see how. For Pitt they are facing a troubled secondary which you CANNOT hide. Bengals had 27 but a defensive score , Browns 24 by halftime , SF is awful on offense and had 7 , while Buff settled for alot of FGS but moved the ball and had 19 pts. I would expect worst case Pitt scores 23 points..worst case.....

It's true BALT is 5-0 L5 and 6-2 L8 off a BYE WEEK. However that doesnt really mean much to me as thats an indivual event every season.

Going to see where this line ends up but I like PITT as long as it stays below -10. I thought this would be -7.5 or -8 so really no difference in the higher number at -9. I feel they are just trying to make BALT look more attractive ...BOL

2007-11-04T01:11:00.000-04:00

Final NFL Thoughts:

Car @ Tenny :
The Titans have not scored on offense recently. They couldnt put up points versus Oakland , Atlanta and TB no matter how good there field position was. They now have a curious situation at RB. White is now on the injury report with toe issues and is questionable. Fisher saying he should be available is NOT would I want to har as a Tenny backer. henry has beennotified he will be suspended due to a positive drug test. He can play but you never know till gametime what will happen. He will probably appeal but maybe the organiztion takes a hard stance and benches him. Unlikely but be aware . Brown has been out a few games and like White did not pratice on FRI. So facing a better then avg run defense should be a concern now for Tenny.

With Carolina they still have Steve Smith as the Ultimate weapon. maybe he takes a PUNT to the house or something. Carr has been bad and is less then 100% but its not like your asking him to win shootout. The Titans runs defense is tough. However I look at there last games and know they had 2 huge leads early negating the opponents running game. The other 3 were bad offenses in TB , ATL and OAK...not that CAR is much better but I do think they are better.

While I know Tenny is the better team I cant see a reason to lay 4 points here. I wouldnt mind seeing Matt Moore in the game if need be. Nothing better then putting a young player in position with NO EXPECTATIONS. A relief appearance would be fine with me. Its alot different then knowing your starting and having a team gameplan for you. Bottomline is how could you expect points both teams must limit mistakes. Panthers have been road warriors....

Cincy @ Buff:

Same deal here as stated before. With LB issues teams should be able to run the ball on Cincy. With Losman you have the deep ball ability back into the game. I would think both teams find ways to score facing defenses that are worse then they appear. Dallas didnt struggle throwing the ball versus BUF when Romo was throwing to his guys. The OVER 43 seems enticing even with most BUF home games in the mid 30s. No way I take Cincy as road chalk....what I dont like is that BUF defense cant be expected to stop Cincy so they must score to compete....Bills or pass

Den @ Det :
John Lynch's status is key for me. I dont think either defense can stop the offenses. It's real shocking how bad DEN's is and there offense can move the ball but always sputters at the wrong times. Right now I am still not a believer in DET ...Chi and TB who? So like the points and the over ...doe sthe fade DET of a win as a dog now favored rule apply ??? I dont get the negative comments about Cutler he definetly looks fine when I see him. They have no playmakers on offense but he makes plays....

GB @ KC :

Feel like KC continues to improve with LJ and Bowe playing much better. GB SHOULD have lost that game but DEN played for a TIE!! The KC defense is much better then Denvers and will present a problem. Ryan Grant wont look as good . Great situational angle with KC off a BYE playing the SU winner on MNF! Just se KC as the better team. Huard has been okay since last year when he just has to manage a game. healthy Holmes and LJ plus two options in the passing game. Only concern is Rayner kicking but maybe he wants to show GB something...

Jax @ NO :

Last week I saw the value in Jax. Here I dont. If you saw the Colts and TB games you realize the Jags weakness is pass defense( even Houston game). Well Brees has played well 3 straight games and they shredded SF secondary last week. Saints can stop the run and that means you depend on Gray to keep drives alive and make plays. Saints are HOT and think it continues here....they were terrible 1st 3 games but should have won 4 straight..

SD @ Minny:
Phillips and Jammer are gametime decisions which could level the playing field some. Minny will be w/o Troy Williamson , start Tavaris Jackson cause Holcomb is OUT , possibly be w/o there best corner Antonie Winfield though safety Dwight Smith will return. You can throw the ball on SD but thats not something Minny does well especially with homerun threat Williamson out. Minny is stout versus the run but SD would be wise to just utilize LT more in the passing game. Travel is tough on SD with the early start. I just love what Chambers adds to the offense. SD looked great on offense last week in the 1st Half. The only way Minny covers is to find away to score and we know AP is threat but these RUN defense are tough. Lean towards the over and would only tease SD down or play the ML...I would hate to be a sucker!

SF @ ATL :

Why would one see value in SF? There QB is hurt , there stud RB is battling ankle injuries , DJ has been quiet and is returning from injury. There secondary looked horrible last week vs NO. How is SF competing here especially with the early start? ATL is off a BYE facing a team flying cross country!! Falcons had played well before the Giant game at home....they are simple in a better position to win this game being home.....I think since Manny Lawson went down so did the level of play on defense , now add Walt Harris to the list. The Falcons have questions with Crumpler being doubtful and OL issues...
If SF cant win at home why on the road??

Wash @ NYJ:
Simply cant see how WASH is favored by 3.5. Yes , the Jets stink but they are in every game! Clemens should be an upgrade but dont like Coles being OUT. However if Mangini is wise he starts Brad Smith cause the dropoff isnt as wide with McCareins. The Skins lost Carlos Rogers weakening severlythere best asset. Now a banged up Smoot and Springs will start. Look how bad the offense has been recently and you feel comfortable laying points? Clemens almost won in BALT and I think having a new young QB gives a team something to play for.....Skins have shown no improvement this season. Remember they needed OT to win vs Miami at home! People thinking WASH is good just isnt accurate.....they arent much better then NYJ..

Ari @ TB :

Actually the Cards are one of my favorite dogs. Early on the TB defense looked like days of old but injuries continueto rob them off peak performance. Brian kelly , Greg Spires and nickel Torry Cox....remember a few weeks back how badly they struggled with Tenny then last week vs Jax....cards have become a live dog....they have the offenseive weapons and TB doesnt have much of a pass rush. The TB running game is so-so. Clayton a good blocker is OUT , the OL hasnt been the same , Bennett is questionable, Pittman probably out another week...

4 PM:

Oakland tends to be an automatic fade as a favorite. However HOU might be that bad. The switch back to McCown could help the offense or the aful play of HOU defense lately could ! Schaub is OUT and while Rosenfals is solid he isnt as good as Schaub. The RB situation is a mystery though Green should play. Daniels and Andre Davis were banged up last week. Andre Johnson is tsill out. raiders suck as favs but they at least could have won the past 3 games.....see no reason to play HOU here..

Of course I want to play the COLTS. However w/o marvin Harrison I cant. See NE is a well oil machined and you need the same quality machine to go up against it. With Harrision OUT I question the Colts WR. THE NE defense is getting healthy and INDYs is all banged up. I hate to say it but Pats by a TD.They are getting better each week and I think Colts have some yet undiscovered flaws.....Pats looked okay until the DAL game since they have grown stronger. This is one game where you cant say NE laying 6 means 13 points at Foxboro...its not like that all the time. Not a good rational IMO. If Marvin Harrison were 100% I would be on it. Probably just watch and see if my expectations of NE by 7-10 come through...you know Belichek wants to cover and hardly say shit like that. He is making a statement though no doubt! Again comments about BOOKS getting killed on NE are UNTRUE! Every SUND its the same shit. people think lines to high and take it down a 1 pt or so...

2007-11-03T23:55:00.000-04:00

Been a scramble all night to get all the games cap. It's just a ridiculous about of games. Still working on the NFL though.

I had to laugh cause if you are watching BC / FSU ( I have FSU ) then you heard Musberger (sp??) say the game got into the 40s( closing total 39.5 or 40). Thats alot of points considering the weather.

Now we all know what the total was and how many UNDER tickets got shredded on the pick 6 ...but the average joe probably doesnt get that comment...sorry you lost Bret it happens!

Root for me....Cal -15 , Wyoming +3.5 , Under 5.5 Avs and Anahem 4 team parlay..gambled and hedged with Wash St +8 2nd H hoping the other three hold...

2007-11-03T17:33:00.000-04:00

Just some thoughts :

Like how Texas came back but that last TD is extremely deflating. Still think I have a shot BUT would not touch either side at HALFTIME...

Would take a shot on the 2nd H UNDER @ USF if I didnt already have the Cincy play pending.

Did take Maryland ML 2nd H somewhat cautiously. I think UNC played better and only wound up 6. If your gonna ask a team to close out a game I prefer Maryland even away. Look how Miami responded vs them in the 2nd H. Clearly two different situations but they also couldnt close out UVA earlier if I recall correctly.

Lets see how it shakes out. Only 3 sports to cap.....

2007-11-03T16:35:00.000-04:00

The 5 PM starts :

Nothing official yet . Looking at 1st Half Under Fresno State , Over 48 LSU and Over Idaho.

UPDATE:
Under 28.5 Fresno State 1st Half

Passed on the two OVERS cause I think we may see slow starts in both. COuld be wrong but tahts my feel. BOL

2007-11-03T15:39:00.000-04:00

These days are simply impossible to catch up on. Got home late and wasnt prepared for today really. Still havent even blinked at NHL or NBA. For that matter any game starting at beyond 3:30.

Early plays I had were Ball State and Under Ohio State. Very foolish of me to not hedge at the half with the total. So that sucked. Then went with Iowa 2nd Half and 3 team parlay with all 2nd half Wake , Iowa and NCST. Which just hit. So thats good. Unfortunately I didnt want to force anything and have been pretty on point to date. Games that are going on now here is what I liked. Maybe this will help with seeing some value in HALFTIME lines:

Over 60 Memphis
Col St +21
Buffalo +6.5
Over 71 Rice
FIU +17
Under 58 Boise State

Now I just went with Texas -1.5 , Cincy +6 -120 , Over 62 UC. With 1/2 plays on Mich State and Over 61.5 Texas

Only had leans on Under 51 Mich State..Actually wanted to play Maryland ML but missed it!

Working on the rest of todays headache...one game all week that stuck out for me was COLORADO as a home doggie....

Be Back and GL

2007-11-01T19:30:00.000-04:00

NBA :

Heat +4.5 -120
Over 45.5 1st Quarter Miami
Over 90 1st Half Miami

Also had ....

Houston +3.5
Under 193 Houston
Sea 1st Q +4
Sea 1st H +7
Sea 1st Ov 113

Lean :
Houston & Under
Seattle

Parlays :
Avs , Ducks , Blues , Rockets
Avs , Ducks , Ov 90 Heat 1st H and Rockets

2007-11-01T19:22:00.001-04:00

NHL :

Didnt have enough time to get to the NHL games before 7 starts:

Bruins Even
Under 5.5 +110 Montreal
Blues +140
Col -150
Anaheim -190

Would suggest a 3 team parlay with STL , Col and ANA...

Leans :
Under 5.5 NYI ( if I had tp pick it would have been NYI)
Over 6 Bruins Even
Caps / Over 5.5 (if I had to pick on both)
Montreal -130
Atlanta / Under 6
Over 5 Minny
Over 5.5 Cal (if i had to pick one type)
Over 6.5 Pitt
Nashville / Over 5.5

Guess I expect some goals to be scored but I really rushed through this 1st time. I want to go back and do more work

2007-11-01T15:07:00.000-04:00

NCAAF :

VaTech travels to GaTech :

1) How does VaTech respond after losing( maybe choking) versus Boston College at home. You have to think as they put it dominanting the #2 team at home for 57 minutes then losing takes a toll mentally. You wonder if the defense is asking themselves what more can we do?? Looks like taylor is back but he hasnt done anything to make me feel the passing game is better. He does use his legs to get yards though. However is a sprained ankle going to limit that ??

2) GaTech w/o its top 2 RBs Grant and Choice? It appears just like the Broncos GT can simple dig down the depth chart and pul a high quality back out. Curious to see about the injured lineman listed on the injury report. Not sure what thats about .

3) Who will score? I think clearly GaTech has the edge in the passing game except there WRs dont impress me much. For offense it seems VaTech over relies on its defense and special teams to put points on the board. Ore looked good last week but generally they have not done much on the ground. I think Ore is solid but cant look at one team he has run well against and say the problem is cured. UNDER looks enticing but I think GaTech can pass on VaTech and I dont think GaTech defense is as good as it looks on paper. Have 20-17 in my head as a worst case scenario....

Right now that's I all can see. Tough to fade VT on Thursday nite catching points but GT seems in a better situation....

Might just pass...GL

2007-11-01T13:46:00.000-04:00

NBA:
Hope people realize the NBA has clearly changed and alot more teams are trying to play the Pho Suns now. So be cautious thinking totals are high based on previous performances.

Suns @ Seattle:

Real big number . I thought that Seattle played better then expected for 3 quarters last night. I guess who didn't?? My point is we can expect alot of 4th quarter struggles from them due to youth and lack of go to scorer. As much as like Delonte West his sloppiness really killed my Sea play late with consecutive turnovers that led to fastbreaks when it was 12 pt game. After that blowout city! Anyway I think Nash and Amare could be at less then peak performance. His coach said that Amare is still working his way into shape so that MAY put a cap on his minutes( 18 and 25 minutes in his last 2 games). He looked excellent last 2 preseason games but there will be a helluva alot running here. So look for that factor. The second factor is regarding Steve Nash. Read this regarding Nash: "It will take him a couple of games to really get going," D'Antoni said, "then I expect him to have the same type of year he had the last couple."

Last nite despite being the higher altitude they didnt extend anyone beyond Damien Wilkins who played 35 minutes. The rest of the players played just enough about 30 minutes or less.

While some might dismiss this I like the fact that in a recent preseason game in British Columbia the Sonics beat Pho who starters all played at least 30 minutes. They were w/o Barbosa( brusied ribs) and Diaw though. Seattle didnt have Durant , lost Green in the 2nd Half but had Kurt Thomas. If Kurt Thomas plays here I really like this big fat DOG....It may be better to take SEA 1st H and fade the in 4th quarters...just an option to contemplate.....Also dont over look Barbosa bruised ribs..and the fact they have LA tmrw at home could play into the minutes some get tonite despite D'Antoni liking short rotations. Back to the prseason game for a moment. I think cause it was in British Columbia witha pro Suns and Nash crowd it was a tough enviroment and had more then an exhibtion feel. Just my feeling..

High total at 223...prefer the over still...

Detriot @ Miami :
Rip Hamilton and Dwayne Wade are OUT.

This goes back to that little article I posted yesterday where I tried to show how traders approached market perception in the financial world. Big reason why I saw value in Lakers and Pacers so far. Granted they were fairly lucky wins especially LAL. However the key is to make the proper decision and hope it all works when its over . This isnt handicapping its purely making a play based on situation and market perception..hopefully misperception.

Miami doesnt have a great #2 option outside of Shaq but I dont think DET has much of an answer for Shaq with McDyess in the middle. Also probably why DET is 1-7-1 L9 ATS vs Miami cause they really havent had an answer for Shaq. I love the commenst about how Ricky Davis respects Riley so much he wanted to play for him. Could we see a different Davis? The guy is capable of 25 points. Then you have a bunch of role players in JWill , Parker , Haslem , Dorrell Wright , even good ole Penny Hardaway...

So yeah I like another home dog that no one is counting on....

Not sure what I think about Houston and Utah yet....I wonder is everyone in love with Utah beating on an inferior opponent and is everyone down on Houston cause they remember they ATS loss rather the fact they led by dd's most of teh 2nd half.

2007-11-01T01:02:00.001-04:00

I am so pissed at me! Why did I change to Seattle +11.5 from Denver -11.5 ?? Gonna cost me a 3 team parlay unless I get about 12 -0 run to end it ! Thats three 3 teamers I lost the past 2 days on dumb decisions.....hit a 4teamer though...okay 11-0 run....worse is I was just gonna play UND 5.5 Columbus...I do the parlays for the payout and hit a good amount but damn this one sucked...Oh well there is always tmrw..

2007-10-31T18:36:00.000-04:00

NHL:

Florida +115
Chicago +165

Thoughts & Leans :
Over 5.5 +110 NJN
NJN -130 ( not as much as the total though)
Under 5 Dallas

NBA:

I didnt realize that in a haste I forgot to post my NBA..My mistake

Indiana +3.5 -120
Over 204 Indiana
1st H over 100 Indiana
Cle +3.5 -120
Under 186 Dallas
Memphis +6.5
NJ -2 -120
Over 217 Denver

Leans:
Over 201 Memphis
Toronto -7
1st Half Over Tor
Den 1st quarter -3.5

Parlay
Pacers +2 , Cavs +3 , Mem +6 ( 6 to 1 payout)
Sea +11.5 , Over 217.7 Den ,Und 5.5 Kings ( 6 to 1 payout)

2007-10-31T13:19:00.000-04:00

NBA Wed :

Running out but look at these:

Memphis +6 : Spurs have had issues play B2B games in the past. Last night it was commented on that Parker looked winded at times by the CZAR due to his lack of preseason minutes. Tough spot playing MEM who will look to run...

Over 201 Indy vs Wash : Pacers w/o key players which should actually destroy whatever little defense and rebounding INDY had. We should know that WIZ dont play defense....

Others :
Under 185 Dallas - Cle : Key players out , Cle offense limited IMO and Dallas has that defensive attitude under Avery Johnson.

Nuggets -11.5 : Depending on how healthy Durant and Green are. NBA debuts less then 100%....Nuggets should suprise this year. Hate big chalk but this could get ugly. Who is guarding melo?? Sea has nice depth and this could be real high scoring as well...

2007-10-31T09:02:00.000-04:00

NFL Notes: Week 9

Carolina @ Tenny :

Looking back at last week I regret my decision to take Carolina. Simply cause getting it at +8 or better really should have been what I was looking for( seems marginal but its not). First they were catching 5 or 6 at Arizona. Which clearly was an inflated line by a point or two but not much different then what Indy was laying. Definetly a different situation Home after a bye versus on the road. Just a different was the level of opponent though.

The key injuries seem to be who will starting at QB for Carolina? Is it the ageless wonder Vinny Testaverde who couldn't finish the game due to achilles issues or David Carr who is playing with a fracture in his back and feels about 80%. Scary though Carr at 80% when 100% wasn't comforting!! For Tenny the passing game gets a big boost from Brandon Jones who is set to return. From what I understand Tenny receivers dropped 3 possible TD passes this week!

Carolina is 4-0 on the road( and ATS) while Tenny is 0-2 ATS (2-0 SU ) as favs but were laying more then a TD both times. Panthers are also 24-9-2 ATS away last 35 road games. So they are ROAD warriors for sure and embrace the DOG role. Probably because there formula has been sound defense and running the ball. If they execute tough to get blown out that way. That's what makes Tenny such a quality dog as well. They have VY as well but Car counters with Steve Smith who can return a punt or make a 60 yd TD catch changing the game in a blink.

Now I feel the Indy - Car final is extremely misleading. The key play of the game was after a INDY fumble @ there own 28 Car had the ball deep in Colts territory leading 7-3 with about 7 minutes before half. They drive it inside the 10 and the play that changed the game was a Bethea INT. Worst case you get 3 make it 10-3 or you go up 14-3. Finally Indy gets it going late hitting some big pass plays which is something CAR suddenly couldnt defend and was abused from this drive on. The other key was Vinny Testaverde NOT coming out and playing the 2nd H. I wonder if this teams believes a helluva alot more in Testaverde then Carr? We know Steve Smith does. So does that mean it was deflating for CAR to see Carr trot out there?? I think its a possibility. Matt Moore stay loose!!

From that point on the passing game was on point and INDY scored 3 second H TDS while CAR fumbled away any late chances. They had the ball at the 20 late but it was already to late when they fumbled. Then again at the end of regulation. Was it a sign Carr could move the ball or just a part of being down 31-7 playing a relaxed defense?? Not having such a good passing attack should play into CAR's favor IMO.

This is somewhat of an even matchup if you believe Vinny is 100% on Sunday. Thats the problem with 40+ athletes , the ease which minor injuries creep up and then the inability to shake them. I think CAR has run the ball better but its probably EVEN in that category with White and Henry emerging. UPDATE: Henry tested postive for steroids in a supplement he took. I assume he is eligible to play but you always wonder if a coach will impose his own suspension. Now its been said LenDale White is banged up and Chris Brown has been out a while. Suddenly the TENNY ground game is a concern as well. Both teams are tough on the run and both stink vs the pass but I think CAR may be weaker. Since the BYE check the TENNY offense where is it? They couldnt score vs TB, ATL or Oakland. The Houston game was Kerry Collins! I dont like favs who cant score......dont know who is scoring here...

CAR QB very important.

Cincy @ Buffalo
Until the Bengals get some LBs healthy they simply cant stop the run. So defensively they are screwed with an average secondary. They over commit to the run and you open up the passing game. Pitt had absolutely no problem moving the ball. After the opening drive only a INT stopped them from scoring on every drive they had.

Losman is back IN and Edwards OUT. The positive in that is Losman's ability to throw the deep ball and relationship with Lee Evans. If they can pound the ball with Lynch and Co then that deep pass should be there a coule times. What Edwards did so well was get all the recievers involved and move the chains. Thats been a huge issue for Losman.

I think a key play in the Buff/Jet game was the Leon Washington fumble deep in BUFF territory late 2nd Quarter. That would have allowed NY to go into the locker room with a lead after outplaying the Bills in the 1st Half.

I think Buffalo is great at the bend dont break defense. With Losman in there could be more turnovers and big pasing plays. For that reason OVER 43 looks enticing. Now clearly we must keep an eye on the RB situation is Watson or Rudi okay ??? If not who the hell runs the ball??? I think for Buffalo to win they must score cause Cincy will....

Denver @ Detriot
Big issue for DEN is John Lynch's health as it appears they are okay at the RB spot with Selvin Young. A puzzling loss for DEN on Monday night for sure. DET pulled out a nice win @ CHI but it just seems that teams GIVE wins to DET. Could Griese throw any more costly picks ?? Da bers thrw 3 INTS inside the opponents 25 and missed a FG!

Calvin Johnson should play but hold out on that till later in the week.

TRENDS:
Lions 2-10 ATS after allowing less then 15 pts and Denver is 17-8-2 ATS after scoring less then 15 pts.

Can DET hit the big play like GB did versus Denvers gambling (arrogant) corners?? Calvin Johnson is a huge part of the answer IMO.

Maybe I am blind but I still think DEN is the better team. There will be alot of yards versus bend dont break defenses. I still think DET can be exposed bya good passing team is DEN that team?

Green Bay @ KC :
Still see GB as medicore but they have changed from finding ways to LOSE to finding ways to WIN. Here I think KC is a tough opponent. There defense is very sound most teams cant crack 20 on them . I though GB looked like it struggled covering the TE's versus DEN and you have TD Tony Gonzalez! LJ should find some running room as GB run defense isnt as stout on the road.

Should be interesting if we can get Kennison to return. I just thing KC is the better team and playing at a tough home venue. I wont expect Grant to run for 100 yards here. The world saw Brett Favre work his magic which tends to create misguided public opinion or value in fading them! Plus KC is off a BYE and GB played on MNF in high altitude!

Jax @ New Orleans :

The Jags sort of stole one @ TB. Right the Saints are clicking though and this is a much tougher task. TB has struggled since losing Luke Petigout and Cadillac. Saints are tough to run against , what has hurt them was pass coverage. We know with Quinn Gray at QB the passing game is limited. With Gray winning at TB there will be a false sense of security I think with Jax here. There defense is also so-so in pass coverage . Brees looks like he is in a groove carving up what was a solid SF defense. The Saints changed the WR starters and all responded. The depth is there.

We know the Jags Inked Grady Jackson. Well we now know that Marcus Stroud wiull be suspended 4 games by the league. So while not immediately a starter he should see significant time!! In the end losing Stroud is a step back..

SD @ Minnesota :

Possibly Bollinger here or back to Tavaris Jackson. SCary vs a tough defense but SD has some injury issues...Phillips , Williams and Jammer. Willaims expects to play here and Phillips although gametime call sounds like he will play.

Both teams tough to run on especially da Vikes. However lets be real its LT we are talking about. The old we dont expect to shut him down but only hope to contain logic applies here. I think Chambers just makes Gates so much tougher to defend( and even vice versa). We know Minny can be had in the passing game.

The only was they cover is limiting SD points and holding them to FGS. Which on the road could happen. I could see 21-17 but not 31 -27.....I think from getting +10 @ Dallas to a TD home is extreme. It's all about the offense...for the Vikes mainly!!

SF @ Atlanta :
Hot Topic : Just how healthy are Alex Smith , D.Jackson and Frank Gore?? We know Smith played in a ton of pain so what does a week do for him?? SF started 2-0 and outside of BALT have been beat up 4 of the 5 past 5 games? Why should it get better? ATL can play some defense. ATL at times moves the ball with Harrington..at least they have 2 RBS to use. Suddenly you have to question SFs defense , plus the travel factor playing at 1 PM , and ATL is off a BYE!!

SF 35 pts last 4 games but three were home! ATL played fairly well in its 2 home games before the MNF Giant disaster which could have been more competitive.

My main issue is I had ATL -1.5 here.....

Wash @ NYJ :

call me STUPID but would you really lay points on the road with Wash? They have lost Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot could be less then 100%. Basically that diminishes there strongest asset there pass defense. Now before I give Kellon Clemens any MVP awards didnt he do a solid job @ Balt in his 1st career start? So why look at all at his mop up duty rather look at what a week of pratice will do for him. Pennington has really hurt the Jets offense. Not that Clemens will make them a powerhouse but maybe he wont continually leave points off the boards or throw horrible INTS!! Just maybe they will be forced to pound the rock with Jones and Washington leaving Clemens the opportunity to hit some longer passes when they load the box. Just maybe!

Wash has been pretty shitty on offense past 2 weeks and suddenly they have regressed. NY defensively is very average but so is that Wash offense. So why cant they keep to 20 pts or less?? For me I think its the fact that outside of the opener they had a chance to win every game this season! They either blew a lead in the 4th or failed to make that 1 play to take it or tie it up !!! Coles took a nice shot and fall but no word on his status. I think he plays and love Brad Smith as well....

You can certainly throw on the JETS but can Wash throw it ??

Ari @ TB

The TB injury bug continues: Spires possible achilles issues , lost Torry Cox and with Brian Kelly ailing that makes them even more banged up up at corner especially versus 2 WR sets , Clayton OUT still for awhile and we know about previous injuries.

While the running game showed promise you have to realize that Gruden must be losing faith. He had Garcia wing it 41 times last week!! They are just 1-3 Last 4 games....Zona may get Dansby back and Gandy ...which you need all the help you can get protecting Warner.

I think Zona's defense has been respectable. With that I would rather trust ZONA to outscore TB.....Zona 4-0 as road doggie this year!

2007-10-31T08:22:00.000-04:00

Last night got me back on track . My only mistakes and not just cause they were losses was playing the UND 5.5 @ Minnesota and Over 197(196.5) @ LAL. Now I almost got bailed out for a nice payout when the Kobe's stormed back and tied it @ 92. I would have expected OT to cash my over plays. So my mistake was playing the NHL total cause Minny had some scoring threats out. Well we know that players tend to step up in time of injuries and the logic is key players out scoring will decrease. I like to stay away from that thinking though and be contrarian. In LAL with Kobe less then 100% , Odom out and regardless of a new Houston outlook you still have Ming slowing down the pace. So parlaying it with UND DET and Over Port not so bad but a separate play was not so wise. Otherwise solid nite only wishing I had the SA / Port over for more.

Looking around this morning I found some interesting comments. They were written by Alex Roslin on the Seeking Alpha Blog. Just using this to illustrate how the world of trading is so similar to what has now become a SPORTS GAMBLING market. He was talking about his outlook on commodities ( spec gold and silver) and where he saw them going near term.

Both trades are based on fading the small traders in gold and silver, as reported in the free Commitments of Traders data issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. I've developed a system to trade opposite to the "dumb money" small traders when they hit specific extremes of bullishness and bearishness in their net futures and options positions. Last May, the gold small traders hit a bearish extreme that gave me a buy signal for XGD. And in July, the silver small traders followed suit with a similarly bearish position—giving me a buy for SLV.

So while I disagree with the common theory of fading the "public" in sports. Which every Tom , Dick and Harry is into these days. Cause I dont think they approach it the right way. I HAVE always believed in being contrarian to public thinking and logic. The difference is you can't look at betting %'s and get an accurate picture of public opinion. My opinions are developed differently. However you can get a pulse of how the public market which to me is non-pro gamblers and average sports fans feel about a game. Then decide if an incorrect market sentiment is creating a value opportunity.

So an example of fading the PUBLIC for me was taking LAL last nite. In my opinion public opinion had inflated the line and distorted the reality of the situation. That to me creates a value situation. To explain how LAL would keep up with Houston last nite I couldn't tell you pregame. However in the end I felt they would find away to lose by 3,4,5 points. Funny thing about these type situations is you rarely see the upset just the ATS situation. Just alot of backdoor covers...

Just thought he made some interesting comments that drew clear parallels. Nice work !

2007-10-30T18:56:00.000-04:00

NHL:

Under 5.5 Minnesota
Atlanta +165
Away Goals +145
Under 28.5 -120 Grand Salami (Strongest)

Leans :
Pitt +100
Under 6 -105 ATL
Under 5.5 Det -115

Later :
-Still looking at Cal vs Nash. Strong move on the total tends to be the correct move. Lean Doggie..
-Will be playing DET and Und in a parlay with Over Spurs and Jazz. Maybe UNDer5.5 alone as well..
-Think STL in a close one and Und 5.5 just leans though

NBA:
Over 190 Portland
Utah 1st H +1-120 (1/2 size)
Over 101.5 -115 Spurs Team Total
Over 197 Houston
1st Q Over 47 Spurs
Lakers +6 -120

Parlays:
1)Red Wings ML , Und 5.5 Det , Utah ML , and Over 190 Portland
2)Und 5.5 Det , Over 196.5 Hou and Over 190 Port

Strong Lean :
Lakers +5.5

Lean :
SA -13
SA -4.5 1st Quarter

GL

2007-10-29T22:29:00.000-04:00

What can you do? Denver ABSOLUTELY should have won but they didnt deserve to win. Dumb founding fumble by Cutler on the 2yd line . They got screwed on a BS holding call on the Selvin Young run inside the 5 yard line and then please explain the last two plays by DENVER inside the 4 yard line? Are you really playing for OT inside the 5 yard line vs Favre? Sometimes you have to shake your head. Two Hail Marys and who lotta luck for GB......

Again disgusted when you have the ball on the 3rd yd line and Scheffler is beast ! It truly pays to be blind. You take GB 2nd Half and you get paid.....wow!

I just hate to lose and GB allowed DEN to comeback and still won. That almost NEVER happens. GB allowed us back in settling for FGS twice but at least it was there players making mistakes NOT a head coach or penalty that wasn't....

Actually I guess DEN did get what they deserve cause they clearly outplayed GB for 3 of the 4 quarters but were still losing and settled for OT. Nice work by Favre but it's so much hype. Take away his last hail mary the key play of the 2nd H he phantom fumbled. I applaud his WRs and the play calling but what exactly did he do? ZIP.

2007-10-29T22:12:00.000-04:00

Crazy 1st Half. It amazes me how quickly the tide turns. Except for one big play in the 1st quarter that really should have been about 40 yards shorter. The safety should have tackled James Jones IMO instead of performing like a ballerina spinning around aimlessly. It was the GB defense that had no answer for the DEN offense. Then a fluke fumble on the 2yd line changed the entire complex of the game.

Now they start with a stop and give it away witha holding call. DEN looks like ass and cant capture or recapture the momentum.....amazes me ...anymore DEN injuries?

2007-10-29T00:27:00.000-04:00

The amount of disgust from this SUNDAY will take along time to pass for me . Worked so hard all week to scrap together a nice week and then today happened. Went from 14-4 run to couldn't hit a damn thing in a blink! I can't remember being so off in any sport on any given day in my life. Everything that could go wrong did. Including not being able to play what I thought was the easiest play of the day...Will there be a run in the 1st Inning Bos/Col?? @ -110. Cook hadn't started in 2 months , supposedly got smacked around in his intersquad / tune up start the other day, and you had unproven Lester facing some quality bats vs COL. Of course my book takes props off the board about 5 -10 minutes before 1st pitch. Contemplating and procrastinating(cause I thought it was a no-brainer) how much I would hit it for I missed it. Just like everything today. Simply missed the ball....DISGUSTING!!!

No excuses but it seems every time I don't sleep well and look at the NFL for just one day I do poorly. It's over and done with now but my decisions sucked! I see this HERD mentality out there in that people look at every game as way to outsmart the books rather then getting down to handicapping the game. For sports books it's about beating YOU over the long haul. They are putting out lines not try to trick you but simply using the pulse of the public sector. For example everyone seemed to like STL because they were a DOG. However the key for me was the return home and of key offensive players. Regardless that was really about losing Stephen Jackson. SJ got hurt and Leonard failed in two attempts to convert 3rd and 1 then 4th and 1, including on the 16yd line late. I made the wrong play but I think its one of those rare times I lost and felt good about my decision. Though STL defense played worse then expected.

GB @ Denver :

Should be real interesting if Travis Henry doesn't play. Not cause he is playing so well just cause he is a proven running back. On a team missing stars Javon Walker , Rod Smith (hasn't played all year) , it's IRON MAN center Tom Nalen , even Mike Bell who has had a little success. Selvin Young should surprise here. Remember how Shanahan raved about him in the preseason. Just guessing that Champ doesn't play tmrw but hope I am mistaken. Dre Bly should be okay if he played last week with the same injury.

First thing is I don't see how the GB passing attack is better then Pitt's at this point. Big Ben has 13 TD's in 6 games and a 7.8 YPA. Favre has 9 TD's in 5 games and a 6.9 YPA. Now Favre does avg more yards but thats cause he is winging it 41 times per game compared to Ben's 32. So the chatter about the GB passing attack is BullShit. Look at the last 6 quarters of GB football what impresses you? The fact they collapsed vs Chi at home or needed a fumble recovery for a TD to win by 3 vs Wash at home?? Brett was 19 of 37 with 188 yards and 2 INTS vs Wash @ home. The 2nd Half vs Chi he had 79 yards and the team managed 73 yards net on 28plays. I believe that means he has 4 Ints vs NO TDs in that stretch. The DEN weakness has been slowing the run but they did a decent job vs Willie Parker and GBs guys are inconsistent at best. So in 6 quarters the great GB attack at home has ZERO TD passes.

There will be alot of chatter about the poor DEN home ATS record. Um does anyone realize it's because they had such a long of history of being a tough destination that when there play declined there lines really didn't. A comparable reference is Coors being an offensive haven but when it stop did you stop seeing double digit totals? No , the lines makers understand that with long term trends it takes awhile for the public to catch up. Now that everyone is aware of the trend to me the public has caught on. This will actually keep DEN lines soft in the short term. That's how the cycle works: over reliance on past level of play blinded people to actual level of play , when everyone catches on there bounce back tends to be in progress , in this you have a team playing over inflated lines and eventually fading on soft lines. We had the Plummer struggles and switch to Cutler did you see DEN as a home dog often?? This team was -3.5 vs Jax this season. Hopefully no one thinks GB is better then JAX.

You have the AFC vs NFC angle as well. All I see going for GB is the fact they are a BYE. Which in the past they have done well after some rest. However mostly tight games with Minny or Miami. However if you watched the DEN game last week did you see a smash mouth football game or an aerial attack by both?? I vote the latter. So not concerned about fatigue for them . Running passing routes all nite long with a thin WR corps could be an issue.

I think past history is all that is keeping this total at 42.5 / 43. Where are the points coming from especially if Henry sits.....Even if he doesn't I like DENVER. However hoping that it takes the line down a few notches....

Denver and Lean on the UNDER.

GB was given a win by Philly when Favre had a 58 QB rating . In the 2nd H @ NY he caught fire producing 3 straight 100+ QB ratings. However we know Minny and SD have great run defenses coupled with less then effective pass defenses. His 83 QB rating vs CHI was due mainly to his 1st H play and then last game it was 43. Oh and his 3 good games 8 TDs and 1 INT compared to 1TD and 5 INTS in the rest.

All Jay Cutler did was drive his team 44 yards to set up the game winning FG last week. I can see the decline in GB 's play which is coupled with the decline in there lines. Only -3 vs Chi and Wash at home...I would guess DEN is better then both of those teams..... Really that is saying that the road teams are at least of equal if not better quality then GB....

Tidbits:
GB 0-5 in DEN
Lost only Favre game in '99 @ Denver
Favre 17-15 on MNF but 0-5 last 5
Den 10-3 Invesco on MNF

2007-10-28T10:31:00.000-04:00

Today :

Top Tier
Rams +3.5 -120 / ML +140
Panthers +7.5 -120
Jets -2.5
SF +2(try for +3) / ML +115

Second Tier
Eagles ML
Houston +9 or better

Strong Leans
Pitt -4
Jags +4
Bears -5.5

Totals
Under 48 Washington

Team Total
Pitt ove 26.5 -120

Leans
Over 45 SD
Under 38 Minny
Under 20 1st H Oakland

4 Team Parlay
Carolina +7 , STL +3 , NYJ ML , and SF ML

3 Team Teaser
Steelers +6 , Bears +4.5 , NYG Even

Totals Discussion :
46 STL : Feel this is high. First we dont who balanced the CLE offense will be if Jamal Lewis can't go. I think STL will try to balance the attack. Thinking 24-21 what to expect. The Rams defense isnt as bad as it looks even though they Little. Wouldnt take the UNDER cause you could have alot of miscues for easy points but alot miscues that could take points away sort of like NMST and Hawaii! It seems the big play has left the STL offense.

45.5 Chi : The DET defense has been to scary to think Under. Looking at what other teams have done would suspect CHI gets 28 points here and somehow the Lions will get 20.

44 Car : Prefer the 1st H under. Carolina is going to run the ball heavily IMO. Indy really has long time consuming drives some which may end up in 3 points today....10-7 @ half??

47.5 NYG/Mia : Weather is a concern supposedly raining some there with a wet field. The Mia defense is bad and if NY plays up to its capabilities it should score 31++. NYG defense is good but still think Miami can score some with Lemon at the helm...35-14????

48 Cincy: Not crazy about this number. You have Cincys low of the season being 45 pts. We know Pitt will score here think they get 28 or so. Concerned cause of the fact they should run the ball alot but Tomlin likes the big play. Cutler showed you can pass on the Steelers. We know Cincy can wing it. If I had to would go over...

GL

2007-10-28T01:15:00.000-04:00

4 PM starts :

Buffalo @ NYJ :

For me the value in Buffalo was the fact they played hard and were home dogs against teams that had poor offenses or were overvalued. Now the Jets have found ways to lose and have actually been a solid 1st H bet. They have to find a way to win a game and BUF is the answer IMO. The defense drops a few grades on the road while Edwards and the Offense still havent produced much especially last 2 games. So how can you expect to win if your defense is NOT a shutdown defense and your offense is small ball type even with Lee Evans?? Prefer the over here cause Jets should crack the 20's...Tends to be a home dominanted series..the Jets are clearly down but away from home I owuld suspect BUF is one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL...

Houston @ SD:

The whole situation in SD leads one to believe while SD wants to play great for the community they have been distracted all week. Both defenses weaknesses are the opponents strengths SD run vs Hos run defense and Hou pass offense vs SD pass defense. SCARY! So there should be points here but I hate the fact HOU is off a shootout type final score. Bottomline is SD to me hasnt played well in the games they were listed as big chalk. They are better but not where they should be.

Jax @ TB :

Dont see much value in this game at all. We all know the TB offense has been sluggish and they might not be able to run the ball at all here. Quinn Gray is a mystery. I know he isnt as bad as the MNF outing. The guy saw no xhibition playing time bewteen a family illness and the fact he was the third QB when the other were fighting for the #1 job. So I think his reps were limited. Jax can run the ball and TB can be soft vs the run. Gimme the points if I have to pick....

Saints @ SF :

Smith returns and that is an upgrade. The Niner defense has been real solid at home and NO offense isnt impressing me. Simply put I dont see the Saints having value as road chalk. SF getting healthy though DJ may miss they should find ways to score versus such a poor defense. Home doggie with a good defense....

Wash @ NE:

Few reasons to fade NE but the INDY game is next. Wash played a real vanilla offense last week so the GURU couldnt get a read on what the Skins will do. You can run a bit on NE and that is beneficial to Wash . The Skins have a pass defense unlike Dallas and Miami. The pats needed a frontdoor cover vs NE and I think Wash is just the same challenge. Hopefully we see +17 here but take the UNDER cause NE may keep it simple as well....

Plays :

Jets -2.5
Houston +9 try to get +10 or better
SF ML ( +3 if available)

Lean : Wash and Jax

Totals :
Under 48 NE

Lean : Over 45 SD

GL more to come tmrw..

2007-10-28T00:14:00.000-04:00

NFL Sunday

Browns @ Rams :

Since the switch to Derek Anderson the Browns have been a different team especially on offense. The Rams have been a complete disaster mostly due to a ridiculous amount of injuries. Especially along the OL. I understand why we should be down on the Rams but this is not a road game and that's where the majority of awful performances have come versus quality teams and defenses( underachieving SEA included IMO). For the most part I don't see a team that has quit. Your OL will naturally play better at home even with inferior players. Now you get CLE who in 6 games has just 6 sacks. Last week a big problem was the play by the OL but SEA as we know is one of the toughest venues to play at. You have the return of Stephen Jackson which is obviously Huge! Though they should also have all there WR's as well with Bennett and Looker healthy. CLE has not proven able to stop the run. 72carries for 333yards in its two road games vs Oak and NE. I have to factor in how well they played vs ARI with Bulger and SJ out. They literally gave 3 TD's away that day and still lost by only 3. The 3 mistakes were the Edge James fumble into the end zone recovered by an OL , the pick 6 by Frerotte and the penalty that gave Warner one more play before halftime. Even with CLE's improvements I don't see them as road chalk cause they make alot of mistakes still and its not easy to overcome on the road usually. Wilkins troubling me with his kicking woes to date. Lewis is a game time decision and STL has shown some improvement slowing the run. Your gonna see alot of cappers taking the DOG cause its the sexy thing to do today to try and outsmart Vegas. In one of my pools with 50 people 62% are Cle FWIW....also in STL favor here is the recent return of both of there starting CBs.

Det @ Chi :

I feel like the Lions are in a similar position to STL except there home play has been very good compared to marginally good. Both have been scary bad on the road . The Lions have been atrocious on the road. Remember how Philly carved them up and how Wash put up 34 on them. Well don't forget how in the Opener they opened a huge lead only to watch OAK crawl into the game. There defense has been nearly non exist ant on the road. How bout QBs 74/95 for about 900 yards in 3 games with 92c for 383yds. Whole lotta plays run against the defense on the road..

Sure the Bears have issues on defense and in the running game. I simply couldn't back that DET defense on the road. You know CHI wants to avenge there sloppy loss @ DET a few weeks back. Just ask Tommy Harris. With such an odd number the backdoor will probably be wide open. There is no way in hell you can only make Chi -3 here , so that means even -4 is probably cheap still. On the flip Det +7 gets way to much Det money. So they seemed to split it the middle at -5.5. Personally just not liking Kitna's play lately and unsure of what to expect from Kevin Jones here. The injury list abit concerning for CHI. However Shaun Rogers may be banged up , a starting safety and CB are questionable for Det , and DE Edwards is doubtful. CHI leaky defense was decent last week. The issues are somewhat overblown cause it was 1 bad quarter @ Det , really just a bad 2nd H vs Dal that was worse then it looked , and AP had a helluva day. Kevin Jones and Co probably wont be drawing many AP comparisons. I see no value in DET but am weary still to back the Bears.....

Indy @ Carolina

Tough spot for the Colts here. Short week after a psychical MNF game in Jax with NE on deck. Not to mention Carolina rested off a BYE focused solely on this game especially being winless at home. Really how different is CAR then JAX? I dont want say this the wrong way but Jax really fucked up there first few drives with bad play calling. They should have some points on the board early before Garrard left. Why they decided to pass the ball so much I'll never know. With Testaverde you can expect a steady dose of runs . Indy is w/o Harrison and Keiaho now as well. Have to like this big HOME doggie...Panthers always attractive as a dog and see a 23-20 game...if Carolina sticks to it they can run and hopefully Vinny takes what the Cover 2 defense gives him. For me just a great spot for Carolina. Indy somewhat banged up on short week in look ahead spot after impressive MNF win. The line is inflated even with Vinny at the helm.

Giants @ Dolphins

Hard to figure how London figures into the equation to be honest. Think the crowd will be somewhat split . What I do know is the Miami defense keeps getting worse. Brandon Jacobs should be able to pound the ball with Zach Thomas out and the secondary has been soft and suffered more lossed versus NE. NY has to guard against a letdown and they managed that versus SF who has a decent defense but no offense. This Miami team is really bare with Brown and Chambers gone. That was there playmakers. I give Miami alot of credit cause they always play hard but now the losses are beyond ridiculous IMO...
10.1 YPA last 3 games.....hello Plax !!! The whole fatigue issue is a concern though...Sure its a big number on a neutral field but what does Miami have going for it ???? They were just catching 16 at home and getting crushed at half !!

Oakland @ Tenny

Okay so OAK cannot find ways to score vs good defenses and Tenny shuts down the run. Not an attractive number to lay but Oak doesn't win on the road often . The early start for OAK always a concern. Right now I just cant be excited for OAK to crack 14 points...Titan offense isn't much to speak off but they did explode last week....and may have found something in Chris Henry @ RB . Definitely a game not interested in playing but don't see OAk as attractive as many others. You know Tennys defense is tough (minus the 4th quarter last week) and we know Culpepper takes bad sacks and is prone to costly or timely mistakes. Seems like a bad recipe. It's all about the offense here for Tenny. They shutdown ATL last home game but did zip with the ball. With VY coming back maybe a 1st H under is attractive....

Philly @ Minny

Vikings way to dependent on AP for offense but the change to Holcomb should help. Personally while Minny has a sound defense they struggle versus the pass which Philly will look to do with LJ Smith healthy again. With Philly struggling for points and Philly playing fairly sound defense I'll settle for 20-17 here Eags...just think Minny lacks the offense firepower here.. especially since Philly can stop the run. I am hoping the total creeps up to 38 again ...

Pitt @ Cincy

Steelers have struggled on the road to date. I am sure some people are down on them after the DEN game but Cincys defense is still a mess. Even last year Pitt was -6 @ Cincy and I think this Steeler team is better and Cincy a step below..Pitt should just pound the ball opening up the game for Big Ben . Cincy just cant sit back and try to hit big plays...the Jets gave them that game last week....pound Willie Parker and Big Ben should feast....

Plays :
STL +3.5
Car +7.5

Philly ML

Lean:
NYG -9.5 (fatigue a concern with such a big number )
Bears -5.5 ( defensive injuries concern me)
Pitt -3.5 ( never a fan of road chalk)
Tenn -7 ( even with OAK as a solid dog and Tenny a poor fav)

Totals :
Not really interested in any yet......

Later games to come.......GL

2007-10-27T22:57:00.001-04:00

Really wasn't overly involved today . To lazy to talk about stuff I wasnt overly excited about. Last game of the evening ....

Over 79 or 80 Hawaii

having watched how awful this NMST defense looked @ Auburn and @ Boise State you have to wonder if Hawaii can just name its point total. There lowest output was 52 vs Utah State at home and that is a tougher defense and they didnt score in the fourth quarter. I would expect 56 points here from the home team and 70 wouldnt suprise me. Now Hawaii's defense has shown some holes of late. They have given up points to very average offenses. One thing NMST can do with Mumme is find ways to score. Look at the 1st H of Auburn.

Chase Holbrook when healthy can play . Thats why Boise State is such a bad indicator. Look more @ Auburn a solid SEC defense and new mexico...would expect 24 + points here minimum from the road team....really expect 30 ++......

GL working on the NFL!

2007-10-27T14:14:00.000-04:00

Simply amazed at how well I amdoing in the NHL. I proceed with alot of caution in this sport and its actually hurting me. I had said leaning heavily towards COL and he Under 6 both at ++ money and the Avs win 3-2. However I really cant complain. Lucked out that after the 1st Q the Boise State game slowed down and cashed the 1st H under. The NHL the AWAY teams @ +160 cashed cause every dog except SJ hit. The Wash game had 3 1st Q goals but stayed under @ 3-2 and a late rush gave me a PUSH @ FLA 4-2. Just perfect as could be...

The only problem was I went out last nite and wasnt really able to get into looking at the early CFB games. I had a bunch I had looked at playing especially WVU . Probably would have played Vandy , Cent Mich , Nwestern , Miss St , Lville , Missouri , Ark 1st H ...

So I am gonna get cracking on what starts at 3 PM...damn I loved WVU...alot of my friends are RU alum and they didnt like what I had to say about what was gonna happen today....Oh well no one to blame but me!

2007-10-26T19:09:00.000-04:00

Happened to notice some heavy action on Fresno State and especially the OVER. Right now I am just sitting this game out. Lean the same way but prefer the less line movement in games I get involved in.

My decision was just play UND 32 1st Half ....GL

Really interested in COL Und ^ +105 as well in the NHL. More so then they Col side! BOL See ya in the AM!

2007-10-26T18:27:00.000-04:00

NHL tonite :

Over Buffalo / Fla 6
Under Washington / Vancouver 5.5 -125
Away Goals +160

The Away goals comes from a belief that SJ , Col and Montreal all have legit chances to win here and the otherganes I suspect to be 1 goal games either way....might add Col tonite...

I will say tonite is the LEAST comfortable I have felt with any NHL plays I have made to date

2007-10-26T16:54:00.000-04:00

Crazy Night in College last nite. The way I see it I had VaTech / BC as a coin flip. I thought at home the would be able to pull it out. I said I didnt expect BC to score 20 points and they couldnt move the ball at all UNTIL the good ole prevent defense came into play. You see it time and time again. You thoroughly outplay ateam but look up on the scoreboard and see a tight affair. VaTech didnt put the bail in the coffin plain and simple. Ore was able to run like I thought. In the end VaTech didnt do enough...I expected 17 points from them and they didnt get there. I think Beamer took to much for granted. It happens the right play won and that was BC even with me on VaTech. The late game much of the same FG kicker misses his one in like 18 attempts and its a chip shot. Again thought the line was tight but figured AF would fall apart again in teh 4th quarter and lose. They did but NM didnt capitialize. Dont know why I didnt play the over. AF dosnt have a good defense and its tough to hold them to less then 20 points...the baseball total was great and really the game was as expected. The sick part continues to be the NHL. I seriously dont know a damn thing about the NHL but have a great pulse on it somehow. Leaned towards Under Grand Salami , Over Flyers and Edm +125 and they all freaking won!! I did finally cash with the UNDER @ LA. Its just insane to be able to pick winners in this sport. Hit a 4tm all NHL parlay and two more plays...so in a way I am 6-0 to date....worse is I am more like 18-2 if counted my leans! Yikes!!

No baseball , the usual full slate of CFB and NFL this weekend. Which I havent really looked at to indepth. Oh we have WAC football tonight!!

Boise State @ Fresno State :

Boise State is w/o Ian Johnson there stud RB but have a capable replacement. Here's my problem though its seems his absence is overlooked because of that. Since the NMST game the offense has picked up. However I would count NMST and Nevada especially on the road as two of the worst defenses in the country. LaTech isnt exactly known for defense either. So not overly impressed with this offensive really cause the better defenses havent seen gaudy numbers. You can say well it was early in the season and maybe thats part of it. I dont really think so...

On the other hand Boise State Defense which had been playing well showed some holes the past two weeks. Maybe some could be blamed on the youngster from Nevada being a dual threat and not having much game film on him. Last week it was really just a big play or two.

Nevada offensively is mostly about the running game with Brandsetter trying to move the chains and not turn it over. Think 6TDs and 3 Ints in 7 games. There defense is sound despite some inconsistencies. They rely on sound defense though and try to take advantage of decent field position to get big plays from the youngster Matthews.

So really what I am getting at is Fresno is lookingto play sound defense , control the clock and run the ball. The last couple meetings @ Fresno bewteen the two have been fairly low scoring. To me this has 27-24 type game written all over it. Now granted Fresno is coming of an odd shutout of SJST in which they allowed nearly 400 yards of offense. Even last season they went UNDER in 4 of 6 away with the only high scoring games being at Idaho and you guessed it NMST!!

So with Ian Johnson out I am leaning towards the home dog cause it means so much to this program to knock off a giant and they almost won @ A&M earlier. The other play I am on is UNDER 63 or 1st H under.....college I just hate to take full game UNDERS...For some reason I would compare Fresno State to Wyoming they just seem like similiar teams....

Be Back shortly maybe some NHL suggestions......GL

2007-10-25T19:21:00.000-04:00

Plays tonite :

CFB

VaTech -2.5 (buy 1/2)
New Mexico -6 (buy 1/2)
Under 21 1st H VaTech (think we could see VaTech 7-3 @ Half)

Havent talked about NM but like them the most of the two. Just dont like AF defense on the road. There is a reason why they are a DOG in almost game. While they have been overing situational things couldnt have ben better prior to this matchup...I think NM wins 31-17 or better....

Leaning Over 47 NM

NHL :
No plays of yet. I was leaning towards the Grand Salami UNDER. I decided to wait and see how the early games went with the thought in mind of possibly gettinvolved with the 10 and 10:30 starts..Did lean towards Over 6 with Philly but the vig sucked..Like EDM +125 as well

Played Under 5.5 Kings / Dallas Even

MLB:

Under 10 even Col
Have to pass I think on the COL series cause they dropped it +325..MFers!! Now its almost better to just play the Rocks tonite..

Thinking about Col for the series with a small play. I see +370 now it probably is better elsewhere. For tonite prefer the UNDER 10 if anything. As I said COL hit the ball well at times last nite but in general they just are not swinging it enough where I see 5 + runs. Schilling once of my fav SP is definetly a proven big game SP even with lesser stuff. Just look at the stretch run in Sept @ Fenway. Very solid work regardless of W/L . Last nite there was a ton of value in BOS. However being small time if your not laying at least 200 (risking 450 or so) its not worth it. I cant lay -200 on Boston here. People are writing Col off when they walked into a buzzsaw. They long layoffs scare me for Col SP....thats what is keeping me off for the moment

2007-10-25T16:04:00.001-04:00

CFB :

One thing is for sure. Like most of the rest of the world I don't trust the VaTech offense. Glennon looked great in relief but it was Duke's defense .

Looking @ BC work this season I really cant say I am impressed. They opened with the stronger part of there schedule facing WF , NCST and @ GT. GT has been disappointment and the way I see things is Clemson is a stronger team . By that I mean Clemson would be favored on a neutral field . Hell they were favored @ GT already!! I say that cause they are the toughest opponent to date. Okay they were only -6 at home to Wake and -13.5 to NCST. That speaks volumes. You can see Wake being huge home dogs to Nebraska and FSU this season. Granted they played well in both of those games and those lines were inflated. Still it speaks volumes. To me the only team they blew out was Bowling Green and that game showed misleading yardage by the opposing QB but there was also strong sentiment that BG would cover. Otherwise teams have passed on them and the QBs at NCST , WF , even ND once Claussen was benched arent any better then Glennon and Co. They are way out of there league ranked at #2. Your the #2 team in the nation and in your 1st game of the season you play Wake Forest at home laying a whole SIX points?? Matt Ryan is a great QB but this is not a great team IMO. Ryan wasnt all that impressive at home vs VT last year , he wasnt all that impressive vs NCST , and the offense has scored 24 and 27 in two road games. They will have a hard time getting 20 points on offense here IMO. Right now I see value on the UNDER at better then 42 pts cause really I dont see worse then say 24-17 or 23-17 game. I just think that VaTech has stepped it up a notch past 2 games and looks like it has improved. I cant take much from the BC road games cause they faced troubled offenses. VaTech isnt much different with the exception of there defense. That defense though is stellar. GT gave Choice 15 carries and in both the Eagles lead at half by 2 scores. So Ore who did okay vs them last year should fight for some yards here.

Also dont get me wrong VaTech hasnt played well either or versus great opponents. However could the whole VaTech shooting have started them off on the wrong foot?? Thats one helluva a situation to deal with at 20 years old. They may have felt pressure to succeed for the school. You just dont know. I think its fair to say VT becomes valueable as dogs and real small favs cause they can win games on defense alone even versus solid teams. If Glennon plays well and moves the ball they will win fairly easily IMO. Not blowout but comfy 10 pt margin. Its a big IF with no answer and bad weather on the horizon.

{Leans Under 43 buying 1/2pt and VaTech -2.5 buying half.)GL

2007-10-25T09:46:00.000-04:00

MLB

We saw once again how a power pitcher can just shut down a team in the postseason. After 7 or 8 starts I think its time to put Beckett up there as one of the postseason greats. Again he was excellent last night even with less then stellar location( good stuff though). Don't be fooled by the rust arguement for COL. I didn't watch every pitch but I saw COL tattoo some balls off him. They peppered the Monster a few times , he was bailed out in the 6th inning with a nice play by Pedroia to start a DP which was followed by a liner up the middle. He was excellent but I wouldnt classify as unhittable. Boston's hitting and CoL lack of pitching just made it to tough to scratch and claw. Francis starts off missing spots then Morales and Spier just blow up the joint. The rest of the Col pen though came in late and did there job.

So where does that leave Colorado ?? One thing I would like to say is simply remember 1996 ?? The Braves beat up on my Yankees and we made a great comeback. Now obviously there are differences in the situations. However one thing I see in COL is the team aspect that NY had. Everybody doing something to make them a good unit. Not to mention alot of no name pitchers and retread veterans in the pen.

If you look at the fact Jimenez could give Bos some trouble being he is power RH. Meaning Pedoia , Youk , Manny , Lowell there core could struggle. Schilling is hit or miss . He didnt finish that strong , he ranted about needing to execute pitches at a 95% clip due to his diminishing stuff and I always caution against these 40 year olds in the cold weather.

Game 3 with DiceK and Lester are very winnable for Col cause @ Coors I certainly think they can outslug Boston. DiceK needs to get a better warmup routine as he just goes all out in warmups and after such a long season he doesnt need to drain his arm or legs further. Lester is a wildcard IMO. Not that Fogg or Cook is much better its more a matter that you will get the Rocks as home dogs.

So what I am saying caution giving up on COL. Even down 2-0 they have a chance to make this a series.

Waiting to see how the weather shapes up before I think about Game #2

2007-10-24T17:31:00.000-04:00

Well all I ahd a chance to play was the UNDER 3.5 runs for Colorado. Thought I would be home to see what Boston was before 1st pitch but wasnt. Anyway had a gut feeling and played it. Get this 1st Hr of the World Series Dustin Pedroia +1300 .

Well it happened. It was just a few bucks and a shot in the dark play but it hit at 13 to 1 !!!

Funny last nite after kicking myself for the horrible decision making process on Monday with Jax vs Indy I did something unlike me. I decided to look over the NHL card. Now I have dabbled in the NHL at times but I honestly couldnt tell you much if anything about the current NHL. When I did follow the NHL we are talking like 1994 -1996 seasons!! Okay. The point is I basically had every game pegged right. Somehow not sure how I did it. Anyway took a shot with a 4 team NHL parlay and hit it !! Over Anaheim , Over Toronto, Over Chicago and the Avalanche! This can be dangerous as I still know nothing about the NHL and find myself wanting to look at the matchups.

World Series Game 1 :

There are some factors to think about :

1- Rockies win 21 of 22 . My problem is they were a bunch of teams that didnt have much firepower. Dodgers 7-0 , SD 4-0 , Zona 6-1 and Philly 3-0. Okay Philly could hit but were thet flat after there tremendous comeback? See I think COL got a boost going into taht series from the play-in extra inning win vs SD. They had shitloads of momentum running into that series.

2-Which leads me to Boston momentum. Yeah its only 3 wins. It was THREE wins with there backs up against the wall done in IMPRESSIVE fashion. They outscored 30-5 and ebat the TRIBE's top 3 SP . Carmona and Sabathia where contenders for the Cy Young as well. So who has the momentum??

3- Jeff Francis and his 13 day layoff (10/11 last start) ? He was something like 8 days in his first NLCS start. So I would have to think he will be okay here. Colorado has had a good pen and all you ask for is 6 solid innings. Now I know we cant live in the world of make believe. However Francis was actually exceptional on the road this season. His 4.01 ERA is telling the wrong story. He made 18 starts away of which 14 were very solid. He had 4 awful outings away. The difference in the 14 good starts was a 2.09 ERA (6.2 innings in those starts).

4- Josh Beckett . Not many questions surrounding him. The classic power pitcher rising to the situation in the POSTSEASON. 13 earned runs in 62.2 postseason innings with 13bbs and 73 Ks.....He had 1 bad start this year vs Col all the other past ones were very solid.

5- The cool weather tends to mean less carry for the ball.

My view is COL is not hitting all that well this postseason. Relying on what got them here pitching and defense. Boston I dont think is hitting as well as the recent numbers bare out either. They got 8 bullshit runs off a worned down pen last game , they beat up Carmona who appears to have nothing left in the gas tank and they got 5 runs off the pen in Becketts last start.

How does COL break 3 runs here ??? How does Boston break 5 runs??? in 10 games Boston has allowed more then 3 runs on 3 occassions: the xtra inning slugfest (13) , the 7 run one inning outburst and the 4 runs off DiceK. During the Col 22 gm streak 3 times they allowed 4 , 5runs twice and more then that 3 times.

I think COL does have a legit shot in the series. There is value there for sure. However I think Game 1 everything is in place for BOS to succeed. I wont play the series yet. I think I may wait for tonite hope COL loses and then take Col in the SERIES. I always feel that when its seen as to high a price then the word value is taken out of the arguement. Beckett was -200 at home during the reg season vs Francis so why would it be any different now? The line is where it should be. There is NO VALUE in this line as far as it being priced wrong. Of course if you follow the logic Col is 21-1 last 22 then there is value but that is a different arguement.

While I dont see Boston ML as something worth playing. I do think Bos will be successful and with that they should hold COL to UNDER 3.5 runs. {lean towards Und 8.5 and Bos ML)

Good Luck....played Fla Panthers in NHL

2007-10-22T23:57:00.000-04:00

Awful job by me. Think I made up my mind to early today. The best play on the board was Indy over 24 points...and I missed it .

Back to work

2007-10-22T19:32:00.000-04:00

Final Thoughts :

If you are playing this game do your homework. The trend has long been if you like DOG play the ML if its less then a TD spread. If you like the fav simply lay the points dont mess with some inflated ML. This game in my opinion will not end with Indy winning by 1,2,or 3 points. Either Jax wins SU likely by 3 points or Colts win by 6 or better. Get some balls and lay the points and take the DOG ML...if you worked it right you could have -3-110 and +150 or better...

So again we have a game that people seem to miss the point. They say the spread is low for Indy. Well that may be the case but in my opinion its still the wrong spread. Truly I would have said it should be Indy -1 or PK which is more likely then a team laying -1 pt. This season we knew Indy had a large turnover of players on defense. Expectations were sort of low in a sense. We had Colts v Saints the Bowl that never was. Colts only 5 point favs. They crush what was supposed to be a good team but we have learned the Saints are not the same team. For that win they get overinflated @ Tenny. Win but no cover despite really outplaying Tenny. So they lay a similiar big number to Houston same outcome. Come back home people see -10 vs Den and TB after unspectular road games. Wow , thats o many points they think. Only problem DEN and TB arent what we thought they are. They are just like NO much worse.So in essence Indy has been cheap at home and due to there success there . They became FAT favs on the road. To pricey for there own good. Now Jax started with what I feel was high expectations despite the shaky QB situation to start. outplay the Titans but manage to lose , look flat vs ATL but manage to win. Then they go play @ Den and @ KC and really beat those teams up except the final scores dont show it cause they left way to many points on the field bewteen settling for FGs , missing FGs , fumbles and Turnover on downs. The Jags are a grinding offense which is the way to go versus a cover two but also have Home Run ability in Maurice Jones Drew . Who has struck with 50 + yard TD runs in consecutive weeks.

Look at the jags at home versus Houston. Opening drive goes 58 yds missed FG , then 28 yd drive fumble at midfield , then 35yd drive and fumble. After that 71 yd TD drive , FG drive , 81yd TD drive , 80yd TD drive , 73yd TD drive. They scored on every possession after the 1st quarter when they should have scored as well. At KC opening drive 77 yds but a short FG , after a TD drive they take it to the KC 30 and you guess miss a FG. Then the 3rd quarter KC buckled down and 3 possessions all punts. They start the 4th quarter with a TD drive , then punt with good field position and another turnover on downs at the KC 29. So maybe 9-13 points more should have been scored. Look at Den . They punt , then 80 yd TD drive, another TD drive , FG drive , FG drive , then fumble on there own 45 yd line , backed up at there own 3 they punt. Then a 10 play 79 yd drive to the Den 1 results in a fumble , next possession start at Den 4 go 3 yards for a FG a penalty took them off the 1yd line .

Offense @ Den : 2 TD drives , 3 FG drives , 2 punts , 2 fumbles
Offense @ KC : FG , TD , FG miss , 3 punts , TD , punt , turnover on downs
Offense vs Hou : FG miss , fumble , fumble , TD , FG , TD , TD, TD

This offense is playing extremely well except it has shot itself in the fooot on more then a few occasions. Conversely I think the Jags defense has been real soft vs the pass. Look at Houston game. Opening drive 78 yds settle for 3 points , next drive 67 yds and a fumble at the 1 !!!! So 145 yards on 17 plays they allowed when it was a game. Then a punt , followed by 2 FG drives , then fumble @ Jax 23 , INT @ Jax 32 and then 89 yd TD drive. This was only a 16-9 game late 3rd quarter and HOU had no probloem moving the ball vs Jax. Schaub 19/31 259 yds with no Andre Johnson and not much of a running game. KC didnt do much but its obvious the Cheifs are all about the run to open up the pass. LJ was shut down at home ! They played keep away @ Den only 42 play srun by DEN but still a solid 265 yards. Cutler 16 of 23 for 222 basically in 3 quarters as they didnt do much last 13 minutes.

So Jags havent even been tested by a good pass offense and they have showed signs of having trouble. Now Indy did struggle some versus Jax. However the Colts offense has started slow past few seasons and the game at RCA was early. The second game was a cluster fuck. They got down big forced to pass easier to defend if you just drop back in coverage still he had 313 yds on 25/50. Now we have new safeties.

I think we see alot of points here if Jags dont self destruct on drives. The Broncos ran on Sanders and the Colts @ RCA. Thats a good indicator. Blwoing out NO early and a pathetic TB run game skew the numbers. Both teams facing there toughest opponents. Who tested the Colts Defense..?? Tenny..come on now ...Houston had no AJ and lost Ahman Green early , TB...

Plays :
Over 44.5 -120
Jags +3.5
Jags ML

2007-10-22T11:48:00.000-04:00

Monday Night Football

I have to say I love to read. Not sure how many read me . Anyway I do spend some time reading sports message boards and have to say I get a great laugh. So many people wagering on sports have no clue. They don't ever understand what goes into putting out a point spread. I don't mean to come off as arrogant but why do people constantly talk about things they don't know about like they re authorities?? Like Pittsburgh is a trap last nite. How is Pitt a trap ? How many times has Denver been a home dog ? Sure they looked( key phrase..looked as in perceived vs reality) like crap but is that a true indication of there team? Thats why the term VALUE in Sports wagering is misunderstood. Value isnt about getting certain odds better then the actually percentage chance of something winning. Its about situational picking spots where you can be ahead of the curve as in sports linesmakers adjusting lines. Remember I traded the real Yield Curve. You want to buy when things are oversold( sell when overbought) but you dont fight the market (EVER!!!). Meaning things work in extremes. Something may look cheap but whats to keep it from getting cheaper??( attention house buyers) How do you know?? Market sentiment . Sometimes sentiment changes to quickly like a team playing one good game or one bad game and everything is alright or fucked again. Shit happens to everyone. A bad game , a bad day at the plate , on the mound , etc...the key is making an educated guess if it was just that or an indicator of what is to come. There are no tricks or traps. Just people who think they are smarter then they really are. We all should be learning new things everyday !! This isn't really a specific reference to that game but a general comment. Remember why I liked Utah State so much on Saturday?? Value in sports betting has no specific numerical values. Its about exploiting a situation when the market has adjusted incorrectly or not quick enough. Think in baseball terms . You see a team like say the Pirates reel of a nice 7 game win streak. During that streak they may always be dogs. Actually just look at what Colorado has done. Why cause the market still sees the Rockies fighting to get to the playoffs barely hovering above 500 , the one who suffered the long losing streak, etc. Not the team on the field today which has played a certain way for 30 games. This creates value. Boston -170 last nite value. Not cause of price but intangibles. Enough with this . Feel free to email me or comment on the subject. Pretty soon they will be call me A.D( All Day) for my rants.

However if you actually follow the NFL the Steelers played some shit teams and its only true road contest was @ Arizona where they lost and struggled on offense. I thought Denver was supposed to be a good team this season according to the preseason chatter. Oh wait Denver got smoked at home by SD. Yes , the Broncos had sucked versus the run and underperformed all season. How many times were they dogs though? Home dogs ? Is Pitt the better team ? Clearly. Are they so much better they can just walk into a better then average teams HOUSE and win. Clearly not cause they have stumbled twice vs mediocre squads ARI and DEN. This rant could go on and on but I'll end it here. Spreads are a tool. Would you say Jax and pitt very equal strength wise? One was -3.5 the other +3.5 in the same venue. You should never say to yourself I think so and so team will win so I think they can cover 4 points because its basically the same thing. NEVER ! ! !

You should also realize the BOOKS are not getting killed with the Patriots great run. Despite covering every spread. For what ever reason the PATS have never been a public team despite ridiculous success. You look at every PAts game and tell how the books got killed. You think in week 1 everyone lined up to play the Pats -6.5 or Jets +6.5 at home? You didn't see the Dolphins line go down to 15.5 yesterday? Isn't that a indication more Miami money was coming in? I saw the same thing with the Browns game at home 16.5 all week then 15.5 on game day. You think they got killed with the Boys catching 5 at home? I know most people thought -16.5 was to much to lay to Buffalo..what about -3.5 vs SD...

Show me the game where there was so much money on NE the books were overwhelmed and moved the spread higher in there favor on game day? That's why books win. People don't know what they are talking about. While NE has been awesome. Lets remember there division absolutely sucks as has most of there competition. What you have to understand is Sir Bill is a genius because he knows football BUT he knows how turn his players into robots. The Pats NEVER beat themselves and rarely make mistakes. That's there key. So when people keep saying the spread is to high and gets cheaper on game day. look for more NE covers....there missing the point. Well oiled machine versus bad teams = Blowout. I'll be the first to say I thought it was alot of points yesterday but I also said NE had to be up 4 TDS to be comfortable. That's exactly what happened. What does that mean for this week...I don't know yet but WASH is a step up in competition from Buffalo , NYJ , Miami but its clear NE is on a mission.

Indy @ Jags

The more I think about this game I see a similiarity. Isnt this game just a repeat of last nite? How so ? Well Indy played w/o 3 starters (key starters) at home vs TB laying what most thought was to many points (-10)and rolled. Then they had a BYE and got healthy now traveling. Didnt Pitt play w/o 3 starters and suprisingly shut down the Seahawks 21-0. Then went on a BYE and got healthy. Pitt got inflated and built up laying to many points in Denver a team who underperformed. Now Indy off that fresh BYE and some home drubbings is laying to many points on the road ....crazy if you ask me.......

Real interested to know if Marvin Harrison will play tonite. Some off the top of my head comments. First is the Colts have not run the ball well in its two road games against Tenny and Houston. The Jags really are a better version of the Titans. Addai has 42c 153 yds but his long run is 9 yards!!!!!! We all know how well the Jags run unit has been since the opener. The Jags weakness is its pass defense. Last 3 weeks 269 yds allowed through the air (7.4 ypa) and 208 yards at home (7.1ypa). On the flip side Drew is getting HOT so to speak with back to back games where he busted free for a 50 + yard TD run. I don't buy into the Colts run defense being that improved. First cause they lost Booger MacFarland before the season started then early on lost Rob Morris. Bob Sanders missed last week and is always banged up. The Jags will run the ball here. Okay so maybe not 350 yards like last year but they will run for better then 4 YPC.

Something else that stands out is how well the JAGS offense has moved the ball but how many times it stumbled when it came to putting up points. You could make a case for them routinely leaving 10 points a game on the sideline. Even Indy hasnt been as crisp on the road this season offensively.

Basically my early feel is this another situation where a team plays at home like its there SUPER BOWL. Only 3rd ever MNF game for Jacksonville. The ugly shutout vs Pitt and later dismantling off a struggling NYG team. The Jags defense has also benefited from sloppy offenses as well. They should have allowed moe points. Neither team has played a good opponent really. The Jags facing a bounce teams struggling in KC & Den and Indy playing overrated teams like TB , Den , NO.

At this time looking at the Jags. Remember how MNF and probably most Primetime NFL games work. The spread doesnt matter except when its double digits. So pick the winner in your head. The fav just lay the points. The dog just take the ML. get creative and play the fav minus the points and the dog on the ML and hope to scalp a few bucks.

Still researching this game ( Jags ML , +3.5 and Over 44.5). Simply dont see why Indy is favored in Jacksonville. I think a PKem game is more accurate line. The biggest number Indy was all season -10 vs Denver at home. Well Jax went to Denver and beat them pretty solid. I cant see jags being more then 7 / 8 if they played @ RCA Dome......

1- Looking for an accurate report on the weather.
2- Marvin Harrison's status. If he cannot got its a huge loss. Indy hasnt had a 3rd WR really using Dallas Clark in that role. With the passing game such a key I dont think they can afford not to have him. Moorehead and Gonzalez havent shown me much yet. The 3 WR is always what made Indys pass attack ridiculous factored in with a good pass catching TE. Funny isnt this exactly what NE has ? Moss and Stallworth with Welker playing the role of Brandon Stokely..

2007-10-21T11:32:00.000-04:00

NFL Sunday :

SO far just Bills +3 -125 and Over 44 -120 TB

Strong looks : NYG , Under 35 ARI , Over 44.5 TB , Over 33.5 Buff , Und 39 SF and Det ML

Thoughts and Plays :

NE @ Miami : I would lean towards grabbing the points simply its tough to cover such a high number. You have to basically be up 4 TDS comfortably most of the day. It can easily happen versus this bad Miami defense. However NE struggles to stop the run and thats something Miami can do. For the total I am thinking an over. I dont see how NE cant get to 35 especially since they womnt be running it much IMO. So logically speaking if I feel comfortable with at least NE 35+ points and I think Miami stays within 17 points...your looking at least 52 points against a 51 total..Miami has scored at least 17 in every game but one and we have seen consecutive teams move it versus NE. The key starting field position. They get you backed up and they are insanely tough but strat at the 30 or better and your chances are vastily improved beyond obvious NFL averages. NE red zone defense has been poor.

SF @ NYG : Looks like a big number but SF has shown they cannot move the ball consistently and score. Gore should struggle versus the NYG run defense. Think 10-13 pts here for SF. Also think SF defense is very good and this slides under 24-10 final. Look at what NY has done defense since WASH halftime...NYJ 24 is mirage cheap fumble recovery for a TD and Leon Washington kick return otherwise offense produced 10 points.

TB @ Det : Not crazy about this but looking at past few weeks dont see how you can expect TB to win on the road. The offense has stalled. Det cant stop anyone so we think they should get 17 + here anyway. However the fact they allowed 33 @ Indy with some key players out makes me think DET will find 28 + here. SO over 44.5 and Det -2.5

Ten @ Hou : Probably a game I stay away from. Simply think TENNY defense is tough. So Hou will work to put points on the board. Houston defense at home has been solid and Collins lead offense may struggle. He can hit the big play but there are alot of question marks with Brandon Jones and Chris Brown OUT. Would prefer HOUSTON and like the UND 38.5

Ari @ Wash : The defenses will lead here. Many OL injuries for Wash. Rattay to start for ARI with Boldin returning. Simply put Wash doesnt blowout teams as DET was an exception and the game should see alot of FGs..ARI / UND

Atl @ NO : The battle of primetime games. ATL looked like shit vs NY cause they didnt execute and NO looked like the Sainst again cause SEA didnt execute. Saints laying more then a TD to anyone?? ATLs luster is they always hang around as BIG dogs...Falcons....Under 42.5 ...Crumpler OUT....

Balt @ Buffalo :Tons of injuries for Balt. The offense still didnt show much at home versus STL. If the defense doesnt setup scores then how does it happen. The Bills offense is better then what it showed vs Dallas IMO.....BILLS..Show me a good game Balt has played?/ Outside of roadies @ NE and Pitt where has Buffalo played a bad one?? Very PUBLIC Under which means OVER......21-14...

4 PM:
Jets +7
Under 46 Cowboys ( like 1st H under as well) (bought it to 47 earlier)
Rams +8

The Jets play hard but tend to come up short. With the LB issues the Jets should be able to run. Cincy will get some big plays but I still quetion there ability to move the chains consistently. Pennington's back is against the wall and his play is basically good minus the fact he tends to make crucial errors at the wrong times. Something he was known for not doing.

The UNDER in Dallas cause I think Minny hit way to many big plays vs Chi. AP wont be able to run as easily here. Dallas is a slow starting team..28-17 worst case I believe.

Rams have looked horrid but Seattle plays scared. Some healthy players back for STL should be a bonus as the defense has been decent. Dog tens to bark in the series. Looks like bad weather as well...

2007-10-20T01:12:00.000-04:00

Sound and simple Friday. Thanks to a heads up last nite on the weather the UNDER was never really in doubt( game or 1st Half). I know alot people look at games and start to think they got screwed. The difference between winning and losing is so tiny ( remember how I feel about momentum!!!!) . Keep a team around and sooner or later something bad will happen...EVERY TIME! However the simple prospective to keep is the RIGHT play WINS and the WRONG play LOSES. Why? Easy. You make a decision before the game. You make the right decision it plays out in your favor. You make the wrong decision you do not get the breaks. You cant really expect to cap a game and know how it will play out. Look how many people are involved a football game . As I said earlier last week the VILLE did not beat Cincy but they won and UConn lost @ UVA but wasn't exactly beaten. Funny how karma works. There is a MAJOR difference when you are laying chalk especially road chalk. Sure its clear the better team is Lville after watching four quarters but they didn't win. Oh and Kragthorpe(sp?) is a poor in-game coach IMO. Why cause they were in situation with little room for error tonite as road chalk. That's why I say understand situations. The difference between +10 @ cincy and -3 @ Uconn is beyond 13 points and a lesser opponent. Anyway tough breaks for East Michigan and Lville backers. I don't see how though either team deserved to win though. People think USF deserved to win last nite? I guess Rutgers fumbling the punt twice and GIVING 7 points away shouldn't matter. The face mask penalty to keep Lville 1st scoring drive alive doesn't matter? You cant circle one play and not another. Yes, that call by the refs was awful but it happens. LVille had only a gift TD for a 7-0 lead...they missed the muff punt later on as well..nothing ever evens out but it doesn't have to. Nothing is EVEN or Fair...

Bottom line is SHIT HAPPENS. Make the proper read and decision before the game starts and you will be rewarded. Hard work equals Good Luck . Sorry for the ramble but time and time again people think they lost and made the right play. How is that possible.

Two plays already in for SAT :
Temple +6 but I bought it to +7 . Either way I like the same just rather pay for a key number.

Utah State +7.5 :( with bad weather the UNDER 64 is a play)

What again is the first mistake being made in this matchup? Somehow comparing hanging @ Boise State to winning and laying -7 @ Utah State. What happened @ Boise? First Nevada lost its starting QB playing a kid no one really knew much about. Nevada had given up a ton of points at home To Fresno and Boise embarrassed a bad NMST team w/o its starting QB. So Boise State had looked better then they really were and Nevada looked much worse. What you got was Nevada catching more points then NMST was the previous week. If you have watched NMST on the road in the past you know they cant stop anyone. For me I had Boise State in that game and flipped to Nevada last week. Know I fade Nevada cause being overlooked is how you can score on this defense. Now if you cant stop your opponent from putting up points how can you EXPECT to win by more then a TD?? Alot of Utah State suck comments flying around message boards.I guess they only watched the Oklahoma game. Come on now we all know what a mismatch that is .

The opener at home versus the played UNLV. The same UNLV team that was 3.5 dogs @ nevada and lost by 7 when Graziano played. Okay so Utah State lead 10-3 at half and I think 10-9 to start the 4th. So they were very much in that game. What makes Utah State IMO a bad team?/ The failure to win close games which makes them risky as fav and / or risky as small dog when you need them to win to cover. Catching 7 you don't need to win you need to be in the game in the 4th quarter. They travel to Wyoming and again lead to start the 4th quarter. Which they did even not converting a third down that day 0/13!! They lose late to SJST ( and I was on the Spartans that day , they keep from betting blasted by an improving Utah team(24-10 @ Half). They played @ Hawaii and keep most of the game within 20 points even leading in the second quarter.

Ask yourself whats so 'sexy' about Nevada. They got smoked @ nebraska , played a decent game against a mid level major conference school in Northwestern , they lost @ home to Fresno and lost in OT @ Boise State. You know they allowed 206 pts in those 4 games . Ther only wins are a TD win against UNLV which came in the final minute of a backandforth contest and Nicholls State! Utah State is ugly to look at with the exception of its one play maker Kevin Robinson...+230 or better ML gimme some please!!

Temple : Is a similar idea. Who even thought Miami Ohio could beat Bowling Green at home last week> Now you will run and lay 6 or 7 at Temple? For the most part offense has been a struggle for Miami Ohio . Temple I think has issues with TURNOVERS on offense more then moving the ball. Again really same logic . Temple is a team that finds way to stick around. Miami Ohio had wins of 1,7,7 before last week. Hell they were home dogs before it was all said and done !! Again nice value @ +200 or better on the ML... They were barely favored at home vs Syracuse.......Just a play against an inflated line versus a team we don't know what to make except they have improved and have potential on both sides of the ball to make plays......

Huge card as usual to sift through...as I add I will comment....

Good Luck....

Some Early leans were :
Indiana +7.5 / Over 53
Over 61 Clemson ( this is play)
Under Pitt 50
Under 51 Wisky
Under 46 Purdue

Bama ML
Under 57.5 Oklahoma
Vandy +13
Over 61 Navy

- Probably will play the Navy / Wake total. Its been shown time and time again that Navy cannot stop anyone on defense. However I loved how well the offense played at Pitt. WOuld guess both teams are in the 30s here.

-Not sure about Vandy on the road but they should keep this around a 10 pt margin...27-17 type game....probably play this as well

-The Under @ Iowa State strictly a lean. Thinking 42-14 type game.

-Bama cause I feel like they are being overlooked here. I had them -1.5 not a dog....

3:30 starts:(snuck in a late Wyoming play and hoping to get West Mich and Neb at Halftime with lines better then the original)

Under 45 Notre Dame or 1st Half Under( only play at this time slot)
Leans :
Over 64.5 Troy {waiting till half though)
Ark St +3(maybe buy to +3.5) or ML
Over 74 Texas Tech

Good day so far wish I actually played more of my thoughts...

7PMs:
Under 54 Boise St
Under 60 Okl State

Thats it for now. I did lean towards Over @ UAB , Over @ Toledo and UNDER @ ULMonroe which I will revise at HALFTIME.

7:30
1st H Under 33 Oregon -120
Lean Wash +13

Simply think that Oregons offense could start slow with some injuries. Wash defense has been solid at home especially in the 1st H of games. Wash St offense has struggled...

Lookahead spot for Oregon off a blowout..??

GL

2007-10-19T17:11:00.001-04:00

In the end the plays were right but way to much worrying involved at the end. Rutgers was just itching to give that game to USF. Then with 8 runs on the board it seemed every last half inning had a runner on 3rd base...

In review:
Pending Rutgers ML , Under 8.5 runs Boston / Cleveland and Under 62 Louisville @ UConn 3 tm Parlay

Under 60 Lville
Under 31 -120 1st H
UConn +3.5 {lean}
Northwestern -10 {lean}
Under 58.5 Eastern Mich {lean}

As you could probably guess I like the UNDER @ UConn. Alot of it has to do with the high probability they play on a muddy field. You can no longer grab 62 though as the total is now in the 59-60 range.

The Ville defense as we know has huge issues especially in the passing game. The key here is I think the passing game could be hampered due to a combination of muddy field and rain. This is just a guess though as I am not in Connecticut. I would really like to see Donald Brown play here cause along with a mobile QB I think this would give the home team a huge edge. Huskies can stop the run and the Ville really havent been able to pound it this season. What has to be thought about is Douglas and Urratia healthy again.

I think we saw that UConn is probably the slightly better team then UVA because UVA enjoys such a strong home field edge and barely slipped by the Huskies thanks to miscues. So long story short I prefer the UNDER due to weather which should also slow the Ville passing game and make sustaining drives harder. While I may get involved later I prefer the home dog . For logical reasons . Lville won a road game away they could have lost and UVA lost a game they could have won. People will look solely at UConn schedule and think like RU they are overrated. However what exactly has LVille done besides sneak past Cincy??

The other game EMU is not pushing Schmitt from what I understand and will start the youngster instead. Tough spot playing in a pro stadium versus a step up in competition Big Ten school. Not interested at the moment in laying -10 but would if I had to. Thinking 38-14 here so lean UNDER as well....

GL

2007-10-18T17:42:00.000-04:00

College Football

Tonite :
Rutgers ML
Under 8.5 Cleveland
{parlay them with the Under @ UConn tmrw)

For leans prefer Cleveland +110. TCU and the UNDER but strange move makes me feel like I am missing something. The RU total is a mystery. Its fairly high considering previous total sets for these two. I had said I see 51 pts worst case but what I dont like is this total is higher then last weeks game vs UCF. So with that I believe we dont see more then 52 points. I think 28-24 is wosre case for this game I dont see it being higher. I will say RU wins 23-20...Nice to see some downward movement on the totals....

Rutgers ML or buy it to +3 from +2

I look at this game and I see a RU team no one truly knows what to make of. We saw them beat a bunch of cupcakes and implode vs Cincy and Maryland. Part of the problem is there defense has been very average in those games . With USF I dont see a team whose marquee wins shine as much as they should. Sorry , you can talk about winning @ Auburn but if we remember correctly it was when the Tigers were struggling mightily. So bad they were 17 pt dogs at Fla soon there after. So nice job by USF to win in OT but I wouldnt say USF beat Auburn. I think Auburn beat Auburn. To me there is a difference. Especially when your installing that team as a road favorite. Also I see a much stronger team at home so looking at the WVU game is probably not a good indicator. Again WVU didnt exactly get smoked but they lost. The key to the game was Grothe's scramble where he connected for a 55yd TD to a wide open WR. Also not lost is Pat White being hobbled and playing just the 1st Half(Slayton just 13 carries). USF didnt even manage 300 yards of offense and was 7 point dogs.

Ray Rice has two huge games vs USF 158 and 202. Naturally we know RU has a nice home field edge though it certainly doesnt guarnatee victory. I dont see how RU could be small favs last year and win but now be small dogs at home. Thats a pretty bug role change. Then as I said look at the fact USF was 7 pt dogs to a down Auburn team and at home vs WVU. They were undervalued vs WVU , then promptly overvalued @ FAU where they barely won. Now they go home and everyone is like UCF a team that was 17 pt home dogs to Texas and some sort of instate rival was gonna give USF a game. Only -10 at home to UCF a team with a historically BAD defense. I am not usre USF is any better then Cincy and I am not sure this game should be anything other then say RU -2.5....

Play: RUTGERS

I dont have a feel for the total but if I had to guess I would say OVER 52. The Scarlet Knight defense has been so-so and I would expect 24 points from USF . Expecting RU to win SU means I basically envision a worst case scenario of 27-24..

MLB Playoffs :

Under 8.5 -120 or 8 @ + money

In Game 1 I thought we saw an overadjustment with the total opening at 8.5 down to 8 at Fenway Park. Fenway as we all know is a notorious hitters park. Here at the Jake I can understand an 8.5 total and even the move down to 8 runs. Both guys started an pitched 1-0 games at the Jake this year vs there opponents. Beckett has been outstanding in 3 starts vs Cle this year and CC had been good in his past two but struggled mightily at Fenway last week. Naturally a concern . The Yankee lineup is tougher and CC battled through 5 innings. At home his ERA is only 3.21 and he allowed 3.70 runs per start in 2007. Whats huge is Beckett allowing 1.92 with a 2.08 ERA. Both pens are rested again.

The past two and a half games have seen Bostons lineup sluggish. They didnt score after teh 6-6 tie in the 5th. Then they waited for a 2 run HR by Varitek in the 7th and three consecutive solo shots the next nite. Now they did CC hit well in Game 1 BUT he did allow just 9 hrs in 19 starts. Take out the long ball and Boston hasnt been able to produce runs. Beckett has been great and we all hope his mystery injury is nothing significant.

Tonite we see the pitching duel expected in Game 1 ....Personally I like Cle dont see how this game isnt a PKem at Bos -120 the value lies in Cle......Also both SP hold runners well and I think that with limited baserunners(both SP have OBP allowed below 300) you have to play small ball..

Rest of the card:

Utah @ TCU : It seem sthe TCU offense is improving and the defense isnt exactly what we expected. However how heavily can we weigh two road games. To me thisgame screams UNDER yet the total keeps creeping up? I would have expected an OVERWHELMING amount of UNDER backers here....For a side while Utah has played well of late and amassed 500 yards of offense last week I think playing in 85 degree weather could be a challenge. I think TCU looking at the imroving offense and how awesoem the DEF was at home is the play.....GL

2007-10-16T17:54:00.000-04:00

Made some minor mistakes yesterday. First playing the 1st Half Under instead of Under 44. The second was not focusing on the fact that ATL did not know how to win football games . If you watched in every facet of the game they continually made plays and decisions to lose it. Monday Nite for awhile is simple picking the winner and that should be remembered. There is so many things I question from a coaching standpoint about ATL but so many chances pissed away by drops by ATL players.

The ALCS:

Last night was alot of what I expected. You had pitchers battling all night and getting out of jams. Only a 4-2 game but a couple of key hits could have put alot more runs on the board.

So what do I see tonite. First lets look at Wakefield. How does anyone gauge what to expect?? The guy was excellent until he got hurt & since then he has been fairly poor. Now he hasn't pitched in weeks(9/29) and received a cortisone shot for his back/shoulder. Since the end of the season he has thrown on the side obviously and a simulated game which lasted 5 innings and 77 pitches. Now off the top of my head I would wonder how deep he can go into a game and how many pitches he can throw?? My guess 6 innings and / or 90 pitches. His 1st two starts after injury were awful and then the next 3 were what I would categorize as average or fair. In the past mostly against my Yankees he was excellent in the postseason. He didn't face Cle in 2007 and only once in 2006. On the road this year even with a few shit starts in SEPT he was pretty good but battled poor run support. His 7-8 4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP lead to a 12-4 UNDER record with 4.38 runs support and 3.44 allowed. Mirabelli will catch and you can run on them 27 for 33. Last year Wake struggled on the road I think the difference this year was how unbelievable well he picthed in domes ( spec Tor and TB). Look at his grass numbers 5.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

For Byrd I am wondering if his two year struggle at the Jake is related to it being a QuesTec Stadium. This year at Home 95 Inn 132 Hits 63run 60 earned 15hr 17 bb 45 Ks 5.68 ERA 1.57 WHIP .328BAA and .322LHBAA. His numbers in night starts were almost as poor : 4.88 ERA 1.42 WHIP .304 BAA . Last season he was 81.1 INN 101 H 58 runs 49 earned 7hrs 20 bb 42 K 5.42 ERA 1.51 WHIP .303 BAA .369 LHBAA. Again his night stats are poor 117.2 Inn 170 H 94 runs 74 earned 5.66 ERA 1.69 WHIP .333BAA.

Bottom line is Byrd should get hit the amount of runs scored against him lies in how Boston does with RISP. Plain and simple.

My feeling is Boston ties the series tonite but to do so I think they most outscore Cle which means RUNS based on the SP. Also if you get only 5 innings of the SP we know the backend relievers are good but the middle relievers can be shaky on both sides. As I mentioned yesterday the O/U numbers for this situation point to under and the teams dont hit RHP that well in the situation either.

Play the Over 10 -115

Like it however you can slice it 1stt 5 Innings over and R,H,E over 30 as well.....BOL

******Now I see Garko is out of the lineup for Shoppach and I am rethinking my play. Hate that all that work and odd changes surface..After some thought I will stick with the OVER 10 runs. Wake is a question mark who holds a 5.73 ERA in his grass starts and before this year had struggled on the road. Big reason he didnt this year was 7 or 8 starts coming indoors of 16....

Some interesting stats: Taken from YahooSports via Insiders EDGE. This is not my work a simple cut and paste.

HITTERS

• Boston will start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in Game 4. While the knuckleball is in a class by itself, the Indians did rank third in the major leagues with a .272 well-hit average against pitches slower than 77 mph. Franklin Gutierrez was excellent against soft off-speed pitches this year. The young outfielder batted .330 (35-for-106) against pitches slower than 77 mph.

• The man the Indians want at the plate with runners in scoring position and two outs is Kenny Lofton. The 40-year-old outfielder is hitting .750 (6-for-8) with a homerun in this situation. All six of his hits have come off of fastballs.

• Sixty percent of Paul Byrd's fastballs that have been put in play have been hit in the air. That should be good news for David Ortiz, who batted .519 when he was able to get right-handed fastballs airborne this season.

• One massive bat in the Red Sox lineup would prefer the heat to be turned up on Byrd's 85 mph fastball. Manny Ramirez batted .214 (12-for-56) against right-handed fastballs between 82 and 88 mph this season.

• If Byrd is able to keep his off-speed pitches down in the strike zone expect the Sox hitters to struggle. They ranked dead last in the majors with a .159 batting average against low, non-fastballs from righties. No one has struggled more than Coco Crisp, who was 6-for-60 with 25 strikeouts against these pitches.

PITCHERS

• Byrd threw his fastball 1786 times this season and a whopping 73 percent of them were strikes. That was the second-highest fastball strike percentage among AL starting pitchers.

• Which AL starting pitcher threw his fastball for a strike more often than Byrd? Boston's Game 4 starter, Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer only used his fastball 366 times, but 279 were strikes, or 76 percent.

• Being around the zone is a good thing, but Byrd will be particularly successful if he can hit his spot down and away from right-handed batters:

Right-handed batters vs. Byrd's fastball in the strike zone (from pitcher's viewpoint)

Fastball Location Away Middle In
Up .313 .320 .333
Middle .302 .250 .455
Down .120 .563 .200

• Indians relievers have delivered some nasty breaking balls this postseason. Opponents are hitting only .115 (3-for-26) against their curves and sliders. Ironically, all three hits were home runs.

• Wakefield has dominated the first three hitters in opposing lineups, but has struggled against the bottom of the order:

Wakefield vs. lineup spot in 2007

Hitters 1-3 in lineup Hitters 7-9 in lineup
Batting Avg. .223 (58-for-260) .318 (71-for-223)
Slugging Pct. .304 (79-for-260) .498 (111-for-223)

ALCS GAME 4 MATCHUP NOTES
TIM WAKEFIELD (RED SOX) VS. PAUL BYRD (INDIANS)
Indians hitters who match up well vs. Wakefield

Victor Martinez The switch-hitting catcher bats from the right side against the veteran knuckleballer for good reason. Martinez is 3-for-5 with a homer against Wakefield.

Chris Gomez The backup infielder has posted huge numbers against Wakefield in the past. His .625 career slugging percentage against the Boston right-hander ranks fifth among all active players who have faced him 20 times or more.

Jason Michaels Has hit the knuck (1-for-3 against it) and has the lowest chase rate of all Tribe hitters against it (one chase of 12 out-of-zone pitches).

Indians hitters who could struggle

Travis Hafner Wakefield performs very well against left-handed power hitters. Lefties who bat three through five in the lineup hit .122 (12-for-98) against him this season. Hafner is 0-for-7 lifetime against Wakefield.

Jhonny Peralta 1-for-6 career against Wakefield with a home run, but that came against his fastball, which he uses just ten times per game on average.

Asdrubal Cabrera The rookie second baseman gets his first taste of the knuckler and Wakefield has owned hitters who bat in the No. 2 spot in the order (.191 batting average against).

Red Sox hitters who match up well vs. Byrd

Bobby Kielty Manager Terry Francona will have a similar decision to make as he did in Game 1, when he used reserve outfielder Kielty instead of J.D. Drew. That move paid off against C.C. Sabathia. Kielty is 10-for-30 (.333) with four homers in his career against Byrd. Drew is 2-for-10 (.200) with a pair of singles.

Dustin Pedroia The rookie infielder went 2-for-3 this season against Byrd and hit .500 (15-for-30) with five extra-base hits against pitchers who have similar stuff.

David Ortiz He is 8-for-26 (.308) lifetime against Byrd. Big Papi has homered off of his fastball and is 2-for-4 in scouted at-bats ending on Byrd's off-speed pitches.

Red Sox hitters who could struggle

Kevin Youkilis Has the worst career numbers of any Sox hitter against Byrd (1-for-9) and hit .203 (14-for-64) against other right-handers with low-velocity fastballs since 2006.

J.D. Drew He's 2-for-10 (.200) against Byrd in his career, but has hit him hard three times. Byrd has had success against Drew when he pounds his fastball down-and-away, and keeps his changeup down in the zone.

Eric Hinske Byrd generally does better against right-handed batters, but the left-handed Hinske is just 2-for-10 with one well-hit ball in his career against him.

This info actually changes my lean towards CLE. Regardless not playing it anyway....

2007-10-15T12:25:00.000-04:00

Plays :

Under 10-122 tribe
Falcons +5 or better
Parlay : Under Tribe 10 , Over 9 Colorado and Falcons +5.
1st H Under 22 ATL ( 1/2 the size)
GL

Looking back at my commentary I was happy to see I had such a nice grasp on the NFL at this point or at leas in week 6. Some things that crossed my mind yesterday that I didn't follow through on was playing the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints MLs at two to one and better. Especially once the news got out Vinny was starting the line ran up to -6. How in the world is a defense like Carolina's getting 6 points versus an offense that regularly tops out at 21 points missing a featured WR?? Facing an immobile QB. Anyway...

Where does one start with tonites game????

Lets start with portraying an accurate perception of these teams.

The Falcons :

First thing of note is the loss of 2 OL recently pushing Clabo and Foster into action. Two youngsters with limited experience ( Foster facing Usi). Last year ATL held stud WR Plaxico Burress to 4 catches for 44 yards as it was the Tike barber show. Eli that nite was 17 of 30 180 yards.

What sticks out about the Falcons is they haven't really been beaten badly yet. They dont know how to make the play or plays to win late. Sure 24-3 @ Minny looks bad but it was two pick 6's to the house and a screen pass to AP that went like 67 yards for a score. They lead at Jax 7-3 to start the 4th quarter but simply couldn't put more points on the board to pull the upset. They IMO beat the panthers pretty bad but self destructed over and over again. First they get to the Car 34 on a 17yd Dunn run on 1st down and fumble on the opening drive. Chances are they put points on the board. Next possession drive it to the Car 17 and fumble the snap on the FG attempt..amazing. Still it was 10-10 at half. They had 5 possessions for 256 yards at half on offense. So much for that horrible offense and CAR is a better then average defense. We all know how up 17-10 D'Angelo Hall lost his cool and handed Car momentum and probably the game. After stopping them on 3rd down and long Hall got a taunting penalty resulting in a 1st down. Instead of a 40yd FG attempt they would later score. After slowing the CAR offense all game and knocking out Delhomme suddenly the Falcons stop anyone and wound up losing 27-20 as 4 pt dogs. Next week at Hou the broke through vs a depleted Houston team but settled for FGS. last week @ Tenny they couldn't do anything on offense vs tenny but had many chances to tie the game late.

Harrington at home 54/73 584 yards and 4Tds with zero INTS! Impressive IMO! Still just 3 of 10 from the red zone (0-2 goal to go) and 66 of 7 on FGs. On the road they are 1 of 5 from the red zone(0-2 goal to go) and 3 of 9 on FGS. They have also been sacked 15 times compared to 3 . So the offense has been fairly solid at home. Mix in the fact NYG allow an avg starting of position of the 30 yd line when kicking to Jerious Norwood and his 30.8 kick return avg.

The defense has some stars but really has performed better on the road then at home...36 pts in 3 games...away.

This has me sort of confused about this defense. Which may have Babineux and Coleman back tonight.

On the Giants side I think we have to look at them more in the last 3 or 2.5 games. Since halftime @ Washington the Giant defense has allowed 13 points in 10 quarters. They allowed a NYJ kick return though for a score as well as seeing the JET defense pickup a fumble and score. So it faces an ATL offense that attacks more t home and dinks and dunks more on the road looking at the numbers. You would have to think the OL issues should slow the ATL offense down. Not to the Numbers of its road games but probably some inbewteen area from the home / road numbers. Thinking like 17pts...Also ATL will have FG issues. I don't think they like Andersen beyond 45 yards and that leads to going on 4th down Or Koenen who is a carp shoot. Strong leg but not sure anyone knows where the football is going.

What has the Giant offense done exactly ? They rallied nicely @ Washington for 17 second half points. They still managed just 236 yards passing on 36 attempts with a TD and 2 INTs. Home vs a depleted Eagle secondary they managed 9 points on offense and Eli was 14 of 26 135 yds(td/int). Last week vs the Jets at home 13/25 186 yds 2tds/int. Take away the shootout opener Eli is 64 /116 764(191yds per) yards. 5tds/5ints. Lawrence Tynes is a wild card himself at kicker . Obviously we cant forge the giants ground game but again ATL inconsistencies. Only Minny and car have had success on the ground(66c 214yds).

Tonite seems to come down to how strong the Giants run the ball versus ATL. They have not done much in any of the past 3 1st Halves. ATL will need to move the ball consistently and convert 3rd downs while not self destructing.

Conclusion : Need more to think about it. part of me believes this game will feature two fired up defenses and offense settling for FG attempts. On the other hand we have seen how both defenses can break down and allow big plays while NY is capable of a quick score so is the Falcon offense at home IMO. Thinking about a 1st Half UNDER at the moment. How does ATL respond after the turmoil?? I think ATL is a totally different team at home and until NY shows consistency on both sides of the ball how can you feel comfortable laying chalk on the road with them?? For 3 weeks the Giants were undervalued. They were catching 3.5 @ Washington , I cant see how WASH was perceived as better then NYG. Then catching 2 or 3 at home versus Philly when Westbrook , LJ Smith , Dawkins and Shepard missed. I mean Philly is 5 or 6 points better without a huge group of its stars. Then last week both teams at home but we should realize the JETS are bad on both sides of the ball. Still needed a huge 4th quarter to beat an inferior team. I am not sure what this line should be mainly cause of the CAR game. However I would think -3 is very fair and anything above is to high. So with that I lean heavily toward ATL +4.5 / +5 but hoping its get pushed up to 6 pts at game time....you most look at MLs in these situations especially since the only two ATS covers but not SU wins by dogs were the DD games @ Arizona last year and last week @ Buffalo.

Strong lean towards ATL ++ points and 1st H under 21.5. Good Luck!

ALCS

UNDER 10 Cleveland

This play is based on what I see as an inflated number. Due mainly to games 1 and 2 plus the recent swoon from Dice K and Westbrook's start vs NYY. Both of these pitchers are not easy to figure. Yes , Dice K struggled towards the end of the season but for the most part his road numbers were better then his Fenway stats. he did stumble in his last 3 outings away but they were to teams who had seem him alot in his division. Westbrook has been better at the Jake for years now.

First thing is neither pitcher gets run support. Dice K away 4.06 for 3.98 against and Westbrook is 3.71 for and 4.07 against. Westbrook 11-3 Under at home and Dice-K 11-7 Under away even with his last away starts sailing over. Factor that it with situational both starters getting the start where they prefer to pitch. When Westbrook started at home with a total of 10 or more the UNDER was 7-1. The lone over he pitched 1.1 innings allowing 1 run.

Although both pens pitched alot in SAT's game few if any were extended. Lewis for Cle is the guy I think may need an extra day. The others should be available without hestiation for an inning maybe more. Both SP should give you 6 innings as well .

Check the stats vs RHP in the respective situations( meaning Boston away and Cle home). Bos 264 vs Cle 279 and O/U 33-48-1 Bos and Cle 41-41-1.

Both teams admit to being drained after the last game and with a travel day on Sunday I dont think they are exactly fully rested. Dice K can relax some with a postseason star under his belt.

last but not least as I said total is to high. Dice K last trip was a 1-0 game with a 9 total. That 9 probably should have been 8.5 runs . With Westbrook it should be 9.5 runs. Westbrook vs Lester was 10.5 and went Under. The difference is probably a run bewteen Lester and Dice K again making 9.5 fair. Last year Schilling was in town vs Westbrook and Schill had been poor on the road for a few years and still we saw 8.5 runs.....my feeling is 9.5 runs was fair.

2007-10-14T12:26:00.000-04:00

Good morning or afternoon depending where you are.

Some quick observations :

1- Even though I lean towards TB I do NOT see the Titans as a sucker play or so called trap play. I thought PK was fair but as I mentioned TB had been given quite some respect lately by the linesmakers. There isnt as many people running to pund Tenny at +3...however they are baiting TB money now with them at -1. Seems they did that with Cincy as well...

2- If I had to rank my plays in terms of strength it would be Dallas , KC , Jax , then three way tie bewteen Minny , Miami and Balt . The other play I lean heavy towards is GB -2.5 the rest are just basic leans.

3- Well JAgs go down the field on a big play . They settle for a short FG attempt . make it but a face mask penalty negates it. On the rekick from 41yds they miss. Unfortunately for me this is a huge negative for my Jax plays. I can tell you its almost the end of the game when a team marches down the field on its opening possession and fails to put any points on the board whenits a gimme....Death notice and jags will drive down teh field and probably score....watch

4- No sooner do I hit submit thats it 10-0...Jags are done.....trust me folks....

5- I spoke to soon. We are alive still. Apparently they fumbled it at the 1 out of teh end zone for a touchback. That was a miracle to stall the huge Houston momentum....

2007-10-13T23:13:00.000-04:00

Update on the NFL:

Top 2 values I see :
Dallas +5.5
Cheifs +3

-Think Dallas ML is a sound value play and you can probably buy it to 6 points at most places.

-With KC would pay the grossly high vig to make it +3.5 instead of the ML.

1 PM :
Jaguars -6.5 : Two teams who appear headed in opposite directions. Jags started slow and have improved every week while I feel Houston is taking baby steps backwards. Still no Andre Johnson and while Ahman Green returns its been real tough to run against Jax. Garrard still gets no credit and has been solid to date. Some injuries to take note of on both sides. Think Jags team OVER could be a nice value...

Dolphins +4.5 : Browns offense has played well but still prone to costly turnovers. Miami is a desperate team who has 3 losses by 3 pts to date. There defense is getting healthier and Jamal Lewis is OUT. Cleo Lemon was fine @ Indy last year and expect a week of practice to a big huge benefit to the offense. Miami will probably allow 21 + pts here and that really makes the only total play and over in my opinion after much review. Think 24-21 game worst case scenario...

Vikings +5 : In 2006 these teams went head to head with the Vikings really beating themselves both times. I expect FGs here...19-16 or 16-13 game....thought the total should be 35. So value play on the UND 37 but sometimes I prefer the 1st H under . Gonna wait on a weather report for that decision.

Ravens -9 : McNair is a gametime decision but it really doesnt change my play. The Rams offensively are decimated bewteen the OL , QB , RB and WR injuries. The ravens defense just has to play 4 quarters. You can talk about BALTs offense but @ SF they are facing a very sound defense minus there TEs. Still no excuse but not the same situation. The Rams do not have an offensive TD on the road and Dante Hall will not be around to give them good field position or like @ Dallas 7 points. Tough task with Frerotte even hobbled some and mistake prone ( 3 INT'S) to feel confident that STL could score 14 points here..Only the 49ers poor offense failed to score 24 on STL who has gotten its starting corners back but is no minus Chavous at safety. Both teams have WR 's banged up and less then 100%....short fields scare me off turnovers but UND 37 might have some value...

Under 38 TB ( and TB -2.5 or ML): I dont like what Tenny has done recently but I am not crazy about the spread . I would have preferred to see PK or TB -1.5. As bad as ATL played last week the Titans had to hang on. Tenny was lucky to beat jax earlier and we know about the Saints now. The Indy game they scored when they were behind...a huge premium on points here...TB 17-13...

{Philly buy to -3 and UND 43} : These would be leans. You have to realize niether offense outside of 1 game for each has done much. Jets only scored 10 on offense vs da Giants...Philly is healthy here unlike the Giant game a few weeks back and yes they are 8-0 after the bye week. I expect an ugly game say 24-17...

GB Under 41 , 1st H under 20.5 , GB -2.5 -120 : First I think Wash is improved but look at there opponents. Det was how bad @ Philly and @ Wash ?? OT at home with Miami. Decent win @ Philly but the Eagles are struggling. Its gonna be tough for them to win on the road and you dont know how healthy Moss or Randle El are. Both defenses should be solid but I dont see WASH being as strong as the Bears are which the line tends to imply. The Skins were ONLY -4 at home to DET...Some issues on both sides with OL as well....

If I had to I would say expect a fairly low scoring game @ KC. Anything UNDER 43 or better loosk solid. I say this cause KC will concemtrate on the ground game and even if they win SU I would expect 23-20...

4 PM :

Ari -4 and Und 40 :

This is on the belief Carr will NOT play tmrw. Testaverde walking in off the streets with1 playmaker. It could be interesting to see Vinnys strong arm trying to connect with Steve Smith but you would think Ari blankets him. Panthers decent defense against Warner should keep the ARI offense in check. They had 3 gift scores @ STL IMO and really have been scoring about 20 per otherwise. The gifts were the James fumble forward for the TD , the penalty before half to give Warner a TD on the keeper and the pick 6. We know what the coaching staff wants to do in Arizona.

To some degeree both DAL and NE defenses are overrated especially when facing the respective offenses...think OVER here...

SD-9.5 : I am not crazy about seeing OAK try to run it with Fargas and Rhodes versus SD . This is NOT the Miami Dolphins minus Zach Thomas. We have to say if Culpepper can make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis before I call OAK anything. I loved how Rivers leaned on Gates in the passing game . You wonder when that light bulb moment happened. Anyway I see SD 27-14 here....but just like the Philly game one that I wouldnt run to play...

SNF :

Over 42 Seattle : Way to low for this game. The Saints defense isnt much to speak of and we know about Seattle in primetime specifically Shaun Alexander. Throw in the fact they are off a shutout. What scares me is Saints struggling offense versus a solid Seattle defense. For a side the Saints might be worth a shot but again not what I would be looking to play...27-21 game......

Team Totals :

Under Houston 14.5
Over Jags 21.5
Under Rams 14
Over Ravens 22.5
Over Eagles 23
Over Dallas 23.5
Under Bears 21.5

2007-10-12T19:44:00.001-04:00

Thanks touc , nice to hear from you. Feel free to email me or comment me anytime bro.

Friday Nite

Missed the Boston game preferred Boston and played the Over 8 . Just didnt have time to post since I walked in 15 minutes before 1st pitch. Not sure about the second game at all yet.

Under 68 Hawaii / SJST

There has been some solid movement taking this from 19 to 16.5 so I am staying away from a side. I dont think SJST has much offense and anyone talking about Hawaii's schedule should realize who the Spartans just played..Idaho and Utah State while barely winning( okay Idaho made it close late ).

Supposedly been alot of bad weather in SJ last nite and today on what is probably not a great facility. Looking at Hawaii on the mainland the offense hasnt clicked as well and they have had penalties and / or turnovers. As long as SJST doesnt give them great field position like Idaho did or easy points like UNLV did then I think we see about Hawaii 38 - 24 SJST or 35-21 . Not overthinking this and honestly the field conditions and game conditions would have alot to do with who I sided versus the spread and since I cant see them then I cant make an accurate comment on what I like ATS. Also Hawaii has been known to coast and may do so with Brennan in bad field conditions dealing with an injury.

2007-10-11T16:22:00.000-04:00

Somewhat disappointed in myself cause I had a great read on yesterdays game and simply didnt go with it. Looking at Navy's pourous pass defense I knew Pitt would be able to score and my Pitts comments you knew they werent very confident in shutting down Navys attack. When your head coach says you need at least 28 to win thats an eye opener. Then seeing how Navy could not be stopped on offense I felt +2.5 and Over 28.5 were great plays. teams do make adjustments at half but they werent even close to stopping eachother in the 1st H. Anyway thats old news.

Tonite is a ral tough matchup. First I think Wake Forest is a fraud. I understand they have played better with Riley Skinner at QB but have they really. Look at the BC game they had 2 defensive TDS early. Still they trailed 35-21 to start the 4th quarter. Maryland had the game all but won. Except Steffy gets INT in the end zone and a 24-3 game in 3rd quarter would have been 27 -3 or 31-3. What happens is a 100 yd IN return to get the Terps back in and the collapse is on. Where was Wake till that point ?? Then last week vs Duke I dont know what to make of that game. I had Duke but Wake benefited from great field position all day. Duke's D isnt exactly known for stopping anyone and handcuffed with great field position to defend I can see why they allowed 34 points( 7 on a pick 6 as well). I dont see much fro the DD offense and really think there defense is sort of Cincy Bengal like. They like to gamble which leads to TO's for points but also to high ppg allowed.

FSU is improving but they are also getting the right opponents. One's that are almost equally offensive challenged. Colorado , Bama , NCST. The thing I see from the NCST game was some missed FGs and real bad starting field position in the 2nd H held the Seminole offense in check more then anything else. Still a work in progress with no running game vs a solid run defense. This game is all about Riley Skinner vs Xavier Lee.

What I am haing trouble with is being able to put a number on this game. Meaning I cant seem to figure out what I think the spread should be. I think the offenses relying solely on the passing game can keep this game low scoring if both defenses come to play from the opening snap.

Basically take my comments at this time with a grain of salt cause not much is clear to me here. I am guessing FSU wins by 7-10 points and they settle for a few FGs. Something 23-13 type game...anywahere in the 36-41 pt range.....EDUCATED GUESS...ONLY! Also I dont think Wake has a huge home field edge...

Crazy Pressure on the line down to -4 before I seen -4.5 so passed. Did play 1st Half Under 22

MLB : NLCS Rockies @ Dbacks

Long rest makes me wonder if the OVER is an attractive play. However the long layoff for the hitters is just as concerning especially faced with such quality SP. Also the Colorado rockie momentum is probably gone by now. It carried into Philly after the SD playoff win but the time out does kill that IMO.

Personally I think you have to go with Webb here. He is the better SP despite Francis success against Arizona and Webb's somewhat inconsistency vs COL. Remember this is the Colorado Rockies a 500 road team which is a major improvement for them over previous seasons(only 262 BAA away). Some things about stats. First Webb was excellent in night starts while Francis was very medicore with a near 5 ERA(4.92). I consider a 6 PM start a nice game ( local time) No one expected anything from Francis at Philly but he was in a great situational spot with a day start . Now his success against Arizona is a thing of the past. He started once late in the year vs Arizona and lost to Webb at home. Now Webb pitched vs Col twice in Sept. The 1st time he struggled in the 1st inning allowing 3 runs on his way to a 4-3 loss. However he allowed just 5 hits in 7 innings that day. Far from a bad start. He allowed 3 runs and 3 hits in the 1st inning but just 2 hits one of which was a solo blast in the next 6 innings. Then followed it up with 2 runs in 7 innings at Coors. Much of what happened for these respective SP was in April and May a very long time ago. I think we may again see a 4-2 game here..with anything under -140 being cheap IMO.....

Note: Zona 15-9 at home vs LHP and 14-6 L20 @ Home vs LHP....

Play : ARIZONA -125 (lean und 7.5)